ASX 200 Live: NAB reports solid 1H25 earnings + Updates from JB Hi-Fi, Kelsian, AUB and more

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, May 7. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 higher on potential US-China talks

[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 broke a two-day losing streak, buoyed by reports of upcoming US-China trade talks in Switzerland. US Secretary Bessent will meet China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, marking the first confirmed high-level trade negotiations between the two nations. This follows recent de-escalation signals, including Beijing’s openness to US dialogue.

Nine of the 11 ASX 200 sectors closed higher, with 135 stocks (67.5%) advancing, reflecting broadly positive market breadth.

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Selfwealth to be removed from ASX

[1:23 pm] Svava's scheme of arrangement to acquire Selfwealth (28 cents cash per share) is effective today.

Selfwealth plans to apply for removal from the official list of ASX with effect from close of trading from Thursday, 8 May.

Company page: Selfwealth

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Stocks moving on unusual volume

[12:35 pm] These are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing unusual volume, as a % of their 20-day average volumes.

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Top gainers and losers at noon

[12:30 pm] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks making the biggest gains and declines as at 12:30 pm.

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Global risks loom for Aussie manufacturing

[10:50 am – Ai Group] The Australian Industry Index (AII), published by Ai Group, is a monthly indicator tracking activity in Australia’s industrial sectors. Here are the key takeaways from its April report:

• The Australian Industry Index eased by 5.1 points to -15.0 seasonally adjusted in April

• Global trade settings, currency volatility, and the federal election all weighed on industrials in April. Short-run indicators improved slightly but forward indicators remain very weak

• Uncertainty arising from US tariffs is having differential effects on industry. Construction and services are showing improvement, but trade-exposed manufacturing industries continue to weaken

• The metals and machinery sub-industries are showing particular weakness, with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and currency weighing on current performance and future outlook

Source: Ai Group

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Small caps making moves

[10:35 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers as at 10:35 am.

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Top gainers and losers at the open

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers as at 10:30 am.

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JB Hi-Fi sharply lower on sales deceleration

[10:22 am] JB Hi-Fi shares opened 3.9% lower to $99.50 and down 5.1% at the time of writing to $98.30.

The company’s quarterly sales update (January-March) revealed a slight slowdown compared to the January 1-31 figures reported in its half-year FY25 results. JB Hi-Fi Australia saw sales growth of 6.5% for the March quarter, down from 7.4% in January, with JB Hi-Fi New Zealand, The Good Guys, and e&s also reporting positive but decelerating sales growth.

JB Hi-Fi is trading at a PE ratio of approximately 24x vs. its historical average of approximately 13x. Despite sustained sales growth, the recent slowdown has triggered a modest correction in the stock price.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: JB Hi-Fi

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TPG reaffirms FY25 EBITDA guidance

[9:55 am] TPG reaffirmed its FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.95-2.02 billion at its annual general meeting, in-line with consensus expectations of $1.96 billion. It also reaffirmed full-year cash capex of $900 million, which is expected to skew strongly towards the first half.

Management said they expect a strong improvement in operating free cash flow due to lower capex and better working capital movements.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: TPG Telecom

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Kelsian guides to lower end of guidance

[9:45 am] Kelsian Group reported a 9-month underlying EBITDA of $210.4m, reflecting solid performance despite global trade challenges.

The USA charter operations maintained strong utilisation, unaffected by recent tariff changes, while Easter trading revenue met expectations. Marine & Tourism performance remained consistent with the prior year (excluding K'gari).

Kelsian says underlying FY25 EBITDA is tracking towards the lower end of its prior $283-295 million guidance. Macquarie forecasts are already sitting at the bottom of the guidance range ($283m as at Apr-25) – so this may not come as a big surprise.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Kelsian

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Futures surge on US-China trade talks

[9:38 am – Bloomberg] US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Switzerland this weekend for trade talks with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, marking the first confirmed negotiations since President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs targeting China.

Bessent has emphasised the need to “de-escalate before we move forward” in a Fox News interview.

S&P 500 futures rallied around 1.2% between 8:00 am and 8:07 am AEDT.

Source: Bloomberg

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Zip reaffirms earnings guidance

[9:30 am] Zip reaffirms its recently upgraded FY25 cash EBTDA guidance of at least $153 million at its Macquarie conference presentation.

The company says momentum in Total Transaction Value (TTV) growth remains strong across both key markets, with US TTV in April up more than 40% year-on-year.

Portfolios in both regions are performing well, with no material changes in credit loss performance. Liquidity and available cash remain stable compared to the third quarter of FY25.

Despite an evolving operating environment—particularly in the US—the company remains on track to deliver FY25 results within its previously announced two-year target ranges.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Zip

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Temple & Webster to hit top end of guidance

[9:25 am] Temple & Webster reported robust first-half growth (January 1 to May 5), with revenues rising 18% year-on-year, accelerating to 23% since March 1.

The home improvement segment led with a 42% revenue jump, while the US-China tariff war unexpectedly boosted the business by reducing inbound shipping rates by approximately 20%.

Combined with favorable macro trends like falling interest rates and supportive Australian housing policies, these deflationary benefits could further enhance market conditions, building on the company’s strong February reporting season, where its stock surged nearly 30% from February 13-17 after delivering a 117.2% underlying NPAT increase to $9.0 million, beating consensus by about 80%.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Temple & Webster

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NAB reports a solid 1H25

[9:25 am] NAB reported a relatively sound first-half FY25 result (contrary to the poor result from Westpac earlier this week). Here are the key numbers:

• Cash earnings up 1.0% to $3.58bn vs. $3.47bn consensus (3.1% beat)

• Net interest income of $8.45bn vs. $8.38bn ests (0.8% beat)

• Net interest margin of 1.70% vs. 1.68% ests (2 bp beat)

• Interim dividend up 1.1% to 85 cents per share, in-line with consensus

• CET1 ratio of 12.01% vs. 11.90% ests (~11 bp beat)

• Reaffirms FY25 opex growth (to be less than FY24 growth of 4.5%) and targeting productivity gains of more than $400 million

NAB delivered a strong across-the-board beat, particularly in net interest margin, dividend, and CET1 ratio. NAB shares have slumped around 3% in the last two sessions, driven by Westpac’s disappointing 1H25 margins and dividends, this robust performance is likely to drive positive momentum for NAB.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: NAB

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JB Hi-Fi sees further sales momentum

[9:10 am] JB Hi-Fi provided a sales update for the period 1 January 2025 to 31 March 2025. Here are the key sales figures:

• JB Hi-Fi Australia +6.5%, comparable sales growth of +6.0%

• JB Hi-Fi New Zealand +17.5%, comparable sales growth of +7.5%

• The Good Guys +4.6%, comparable sales growth of +4.1%

• e&s +1.9%, comparable sales growth of +0.9%

Year-to-date, JB Hi-Fi Australia sales are up 7.0%, with comparable sales growth of 6.9%.

“In a challenging and competitive retail market, we are pleased to see sales momentum continue in Q3 FY25. As we approach the important end-of-financial-year trading period, we remain focused on delivering consistently high levels of customer service and exceptional value for our customers," said Group CEO Terry Smart.

The sales figures reflect a slight slowdown compared to the 1-31 January 2025 numbers reported in the company's half-year results (below).

• JB Hi-Fi Australia +7.4%, comparable sales growth of +7.1%

• JB Hi-Fi New Zealand +20.4%, comparable sales growth of +10.0%

• The Good Guys +6.4%, comparable sales growth of +5.9%

• e&s +8.1%, comparable sales growth of +7.5%

Citi analysts expect JB Hi-Fi to deliver FY25 revenue growth (as at Feb-25) of 7.4% to $11.33 billion.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: JB Hi-Fi

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Nuix pulls growth guidance

[9:00 am] Nuix has withdrawn its Annualised Contract Value (ACV) target range of 11-16%.

While the deal pipeline remains healthy, the company flagged growing uncertainty in customer decision-making, making it harder to predict the timing of specific deal closures—particularly as the financial year draws to a close.

Given this increased variability, the company has withdrawn its previously guided ACV growth target, along with its strategic targets for revenue growth and underlying cash flow.

This isn't pretty, but Nuix shares have plummeted nearly 70% since last November, marking a steep and troubling decline.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Nuix

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AUB tweaks FY25 guidance

[8:55 am] AUB Group has upgraded its FY25 underlying NPAT guidance towards the top end of its $190-200 million guidance, reflecting "favourable trading momentum".

To add some perspective, Macquarie (Feb-25) forecasts FY25 NPATA of $195.9 million. This may imply a slight consensus surprise.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: AUB Group

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Aurizon issues trading update

[8:50 am] Aurizon delivered a subdued year-to-April trading update, reporting declines in network and bulk volumes by 2.3% and 19%, respectively, though coal volumes edged up 0.9%.

The company also disclosed that administrators were appointed for bulk customers Centrex and OneSteel Manufacturing, which collectively owe Aurizon $50 million. Depending on the administration outcomes, Aurizon may need to increase its provision for impaired receivables.

Aurizon reaffirmed its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance towards the lower end of its $ 1.66-1.74 billion guidance. This comes as no surprise as most analysts have already penciled in FY25 adjusted EBITDA of around $1.66 billion.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Aurizon

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Top stories from Livewire

The Yips | Markets, like athletes, can falter under pressure, as seen in the S&P 500’s historic 10.5% two-day drop and record 532-point intraday swing in April, driven by tariff uncertainty and shaken investor confidence. This volatility, reflected in a spiking VIX, creates opportunities for disciplined strategies like selling put options to capitalize on overpriced fear.

3 ASX stocks set to benefit from Labor’s re-election | Labor’s election win, securing a stronger Senate position, paves the way for increased investment in health, education, childcare, renewables, and housing, boosting ASX-listed companies like Generation Development Group, Mayfield Childcare, and Energy One. These firms stand to gain from superannuation tax reforms, childcare policy support, and the renewable energy transition, offering investors high-potential opportunities amid a favorable policy landscape.

Forager's Steve Johnson on how to beat the market and the rotation out of US stocks | Despite Trump’s tariff-driven trade war, Forager’s Steve Johnson remains bullish on US companies with strong management, while capitalizing on undervalued European and Japanese stocks offering fat dividends and 10%+ cash returns. His Australian Equities Fund’s 21.7% return, topping Mercer’s tables, showcases his knack for finding unloved small-caps amidst market distortions from passive investing.

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US consumers dial back spending plans

[8:45 am] Morgan Stanley's latest US consumer pulse survey highlights a further deterioration in spending plans. The key insights from the report include:

• 43% of consumers are "very concerned" about tariffs, up from 36% in the prior survey and 28% in January

• 42% plan to cut back on spending, up from 35% lats month

• 19% plan to spend more, down from 25% in the prior survey

• Food away from home stood out as the top category to dial back spending if prices go up

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What's driving stocks lower?

[8:40 am] It was another relatively quiet session, with limited macro, earnings and trade headlines.

• Guidance withdrawal: Ford and Mattel are the latest high-profile names to withdraw their full-year guidance on tariff and macro uncertainty. Clorox also flagged spillover from macro headwinds, noting softer consumption patterns and retailer destocking.

• Soft PMIs: China's April services PMI fell to 50.7, the lowest level in seven months due to the impact of US tariffs. Meanwhile, UK's April services PMI shrank for the first time since October 2023 and at the fastest pace in more than two years to 49.0.

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is poised for a third consecutive decline, but a pullback is expected after a robust ~12% rally from its April 7 lows.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.