Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as massive gains in Energy, Gold, Defence, and Critical Minerals stocks save the day
Fri 13 Jun 25, 5:51pm (AEST)
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Broker Watch
/The biggest broker moves on the ASX this week: Xero, Macquarie Group, Life 360 and Boss Energy in focus
Broker Watch
The biggest broker moves on the ASX this week: Xero, Macquarie Group, Life 360 and Boss Energy in focus
Fri 16 May 25, 1:54pm (AEST)
Source: Shutterstock, Market Index
Stocks in article
Key Points
- Upgrades: ANZ (ANZ), Bluescope Steel (BSL), Core Lithium (CXO), Catalyst Metals (CYL), Dyno Nobel (DNL), Goodman Group (GMG), Iluka Resources (ILU), Macquarie Group (MQG), Northern Star Resources (NST), Polynovo (PNV), Xero (XRO).
- Downgrades: Alcoa (AAI), Eagers Automotive (APE), Avita Medical (AVH), Boss Energy (BOE), Catapult Group (CAT), Coronado Global Resources (CRN), Insurance Australia Group (IAG), Smartgroup (SIQ), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), Zip Co. (ZIP).
- Target price biggest increases: Core Lithium (CXO), Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC), Boss Energy (BOE), Polynovo (PNV), Evolution Mining (EVN), Ridley Corporation (RIC), Xero (XRO), Iluka Resources (ILU).
- Target price biggest cuts: Whitehaven Coal (WHC), Avita Medical (AVH), James Hardie (JHX), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), Coronado Global Resources (CRN), Zip Co. (ZIP), Coronado Global Resources (CRN).
Welcome to this week’s ASX Broker Moves – your most comprehensive source for recent changes in major broker ratings and target prices for the Australian stock market.
The tables below contain data on ratings upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, as well as the biggest target price changes among the broker research reports we’ve received in the last 5 trading days.
You will find the full list of daily broker moves in our Evening Wrap.
Broker Views Snippets
Jarden on Core Lithium (ASX: CXO): UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL ⬆️ FROM SELL
"The Finniss restart study incorporates both a PFS on reserves and a Scoping Study for the Carlton UG resource. Application of considerably lower operating unit costs has otherwise served to offset reductions to lithium price forecasts long term (nominal US$1,330/t from US$1,450/dmt SC6 prior) in term of reserve and resource inventories."
Target raised to $0.10 from $0.07 ⬆️ (+6.4% upside)
UBS on Goodman Group (ASX: GMG): UPGRADED TO BUY ⬆️ FROM NEUTRAL
"We upgrade to Buy as: 1) we have increased confidence around the data centre funding picture, 2) market expectations have moderated and 3) ~10% medium term operating earnings per share growth is unique in an A-REIT context. Our upside case of $44.70/sh has +44% upside, reflecting further data centre pipeline (beyond 5GW) amid a backdrop of strong expected AI/cloud driven demand growth."
Target cut to $36.00 from $36.80 ⬇️ (+16.4% upside)
Citi on Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG): UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL ⬆️ FROM SELL
"MAM and CGM guidance presents modest downside risk to consensus expectations, but coupled with the yet-to-be-completed sale of NA and European public markets business we think overall revisions will be relatively minor. Consequently, while visibility remains low on economic conditions, given optionality on the balance sheet and the stock having de-rated to 5-year averages, we upgrade to Neutral."
Target raised to $200 from $177 ⬆️ (6.6% downside)
UBS on Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN): DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL ⬇️ FROM BUY
"We continue to expect delivery of productivity and cost improvements through 2025. However, given margin pressure, we push out longer dated growth (and capex). After considering an array of scenarios, we find in all cases, further funding is needed. We cut EPS substantially across 25/26e which in turn sees us downgrade to Neutral."
Target cut to $0.19 from $0.31 ⬇️ (0% up/downside)
Macquarie on Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE): DOWNGRADED TO NEUTRAL ⬇️ FROM OUTPERFORM
Broker views the appointment of new CEO as an overall positive, but remains cautious on the company's outlook as strategy may stagnate between now and his taking over the role in late-October.
Target cut to $8.90 from $11.70 ⬇️ (+2.9% upside)
Jefferies on Xero (ASX: XRO): DOWNGRADED TO HOLD ⬇️ FROM BUY
The broker sees the valuation as less compelling in light of recent share price appreciation and given the view that the company's strategic focus on growth may crimp its profitability. Also notes market's focus on international markets' strength may have overlooked subscriber weakness in Australian-NZ."
Target raise to $194.80 from $185 ⬆️ (+7% upside)
Ord Minnett on Boss Energy (ASX: BOE): RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $6.00 ⬆️ FROM $4.50
Broker notes strong momentum in Honeymoon ramp up and company's resilience against a potential lower uranium price environment, citing strong and attractive free cash flows even in the broker's bear case scenario. Broker also notes BOE's recent strong share price momentum may lead to a short squeeze, providing further upside potential.
Rating retained at BUY | 49.6% upside to target price
Citi on Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU): RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $5.20 ⬆️ FROM $4.40 & UPGRADED TO BUY ⬆️ FROM NEUTRAL
"Our risked refinery discounted cash flow valuation is up from $117m to $393m as we incorporate the value of assumed accelerated tax allowances to ILU. Citi expects newly elected Labor Govt to push ahead with a taskforce on potential for critical minerals strategic reserve."
Rating UPGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
ANZ Group (ANZ) | E&P | Neutral | Negative | $30.00 | 3.4% |
Bluescope Steel (BSL) | Ord Minnett | Buy | Accumulate | $29.00 | 22.0% |
Civmec (CVL) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $1.10 | 12.2% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Jarden | Neutral | Sell | $0.10 | 6.4% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $7.05 | 7.8% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | $6.95 | 6.3% |
Dyno Nobel (DNL) | CLSA | Outperform | Hold | $3.20 | 18.5% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $36.00 | 16.4% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | Citi | Buy | Neutral | $5.20 | 25.3% |
Lindsay Australia (LAU) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $0.85 | 20.6% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | Citi | Neutral | Sell | $200.00 | -6.8% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $223.89 | 4.4% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | Citi | Buy | Neutral | $22.00 | 22.0% |
Polynovo (PNV) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | Hold | $1.69 | 13.8% |
Perpetual (PPT) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $19.50 | 7.0% |
Ridley Corporation (RIC) | CLSA | Outperform | Hold | $2.70 | 1.5% |
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $5.45 | 17.0% |
Super Retail Group (SUL) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $15.50 | 11.0% |
Xero (XRO) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $215.00 | 18.1% |
Xero (XRO) | Wilsons | Overweight | Market-Weight | $213.56 | 17.3% |
Broker rating upgrades since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Rating DOWNGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
Alcoa Corporation (AAI) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | US$31.00 | n/a |
Eagers Automotive (APE) | Jefferies | Underperform | Hold | $15.50 | -11.6% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | Add | $3.76 | 78.2% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | E&P | Neutral | Positive | $3.20 | -20.2% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $4.40 | 4.5% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | Morgans | Hold | Speculative Buy | $0.18 | -5.3% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | $0.19 | 0.0% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $8.00 | -10.1% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | $9.30 | 4.5% |
Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $8.50 | 11.4% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | $8.90 | 2.9% |
Waypoint Reit (WPR) | CLSA | Hold | Outperform | $2.71 | 5.9% |
Xero (XRO) | Jefferies | Hold | Buy | $194.80 | 7.0% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | Jefferies | Hold | Buy | $1.80 | -12.2% |
Broker rating downgrades since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Rating INITIATED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
Astral Resources (AAR) | Taylor Collison | Buy | N/A | $0.35 | 141.4% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | JP Morgan | Neutral | N/A | $4.00 | -0.2% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | UBS | Buy | N/A | $5.00 | 18.8% |
Canyon Resources (CAY) | Canaccord Genuity | Speculative Buy | N/A | $0.35 | 29.6% |
Metals Acquisition (MAC) | UBS | Buy | N/A | $21.00 | 39.6% |
Macmahon (MAH) | Bell Potter | Buy | N/A | $0.40 | 45.5% |
Sky Metals (SKY) | Bell Potter | Speculative Buy | N/A | $0.08 | 77.8% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | N/A | $11.00 | 27.2% |
Broker rating initiations since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Target Price BIGGEST CHANGE
Company | Broker | Rating | New TP | Old TP | TP Change% | TP Upside% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Jarden | Neutral | $0.10 | $0.07 | 42.9% | 6.4% |
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) | Morgans | Add | $5.45 | $4.00 | 36.3% | 17.0% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $6.00 | $4.50 | 33.3% | 49.6% |
Polynovo (PNV) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | $1.69 | $1.37 | 23.4% | 13.8% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | Citi | Neutral | $8.50 | $7.00 | 21.4% | 11.8% |
Ridley Corporation (RIC) | CLSA | Outperform | $2.70 | $2.25 | 20.0% | 1.5% |
Xero (XRO) | Wilsons | Overweight | $213.56 | $179.92 | 18.7% | 17.3% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | Citi | Buy | $5.20 | $4.40 | 18.2% | 25.3% |
Life360 (360) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | $30.00 | $26.00 | 15.4% | 0.9% |
JB HI-FI (JBH) | Bell Potter | Buy | $114.00 | $99.00 | 15.2% | 11.1% |
Life360 (360) | Goldman Sachs | Buy | $31.00 | $27.00 | 14.8% | 4.2% |
Eagers Automotive (APE) | Bell Potter | Hold | $17.50 | $15.25 | 14.8% | -0.2% |
Perpetual (PPT) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $19.50 | $17.00 | 14.7% | 7.0% |
Xero (XRO) | Morgans | Add | $215.00 | $188.00 | 14.4% | 18.1% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | E&P | Neutral | $3.20 | $2.80 | 14.3% | -20.2% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | Citi | Neutral | $200.00 | $177.00 | 13.0% | -6.8% |
Prospect Resources (PSC) | Canaccord Genuity | Speculative Buy | $0.45 | $0.40 | 12.5% | 221.4% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $6.95 | $6.20 | 12.1% | 6.3% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | UBS | Neutral | $9.30 | $8.30 | 12.0% | 4.5% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Bell Potter | Buy | $7.05 | $6.30 | 11.9% | 7.8% |
Life360 (360) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $32.00 | $28.60 | 11.9% | 7.6% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $8.90 | $8.00 | 11.3% | 0.0% |
ALS (ALQ) | Bell Potter | Buy | $20.00 | $18.00 | 11.1% | 12.7% |
Medadvisor (MDR) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.10 | $0.09 | 11.1% | 9.9% |
Technology One (TNE) | Macquarie | Neutral | $31.00 | $27.90 | 11.1% | -5.5% |
Life360 (360) | Bell Potter | Buy | $31.25 | $28.15 | 11.0% | 5.1% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | Citi | Buy | $10.00 | $9.05 | 10.5% | 12.4% |
Fleetpartners Group (FPR) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $3.75 | $3.40 | 10.3% | 25.4% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | Citi | Buy | $22.00 | $20.00 | 10.0% | 22.0% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | Bell Potter | Hold | $4.40 | $4.00 | 10.0% | 4.5% |
Xero (XRO) | UBS | Buy | $215.00 | $196.00 | 9.7% | 18.1% |
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) | Bell Potter | Hold | $21.00 | $19.20 | 9.4% | -6.1% |
Orica (ORI) | Citi | Buy | $20.65 | $18.90 | 9.3% | 11.7% |
Life360 (360) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $27.10 | $24.88 | 8.9% | -8.9% |
Orica (ORI) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | $23.00 | $21.25 | 8.2% | 24.4% |
Orica (ORI) | Morgans | Add | $21.70 | $20.10 | 8.0% | 17.4% |
Lindsay Australia (LAU) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $1.09 | $1.02 | 6.9% | 54.6% |
Orica (ORI) | Jefferies | Buy | $21.33 | $20.00 | 6.7% | 15.4% |
Xero (XRO) | Macquarie | Outperform | $204.00 | $191.90 | 6.3% | 12.1% |
Lindsay Australia (LAU) | Morgans | Add | $0.85 | $0.80 | 6.3% | 20.6% |
GQG Partners (GQG) | UBS | Buy | $2.75 | $2.60 | 5.8% | 22.8% |
Xero (XRO) | Jarden | Overweight | $190.00 | $180.00 | 5.6% | 4.4% |
Bluescope Steel (BSL) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $29.00 | $27.50 | 5.5% | 22.0% |
Xero (XRO) | Jefferies | Hold | $194.80 | $185.00 | 5.3% | 7.0% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $76.00 | $84.00 | -9.5% | 20.1% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | Jefferies | Buy | $72.00 | $80.00 | -10.0% | 13.8% |
Humm Group (HUM) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $0.81 | $0.90 | -10.0% | 51.4% |
Humm Group (HUM) | Shaw and Partners | Buy | $0.90 | $1.00 | -10.0% | 68.2% |
Super Retail Group (SUL) | UBS | Neutral | $13.50 | $15.00 | -10.0% | -3.3% |
Donaco International (DNL) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $3.10 | $3.45 | -10.1% | -52.6% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $70.00 | $78.00 | -10.3% | 10.7% |
Donaco International (DNL) | Morgans | Hold | $2.82 | $3.15 | -10.5% | -56.9% |
Civmec (CVL) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | $1.10 | $1.24 | -11.3% | 12.2% |
Orora (ORA) | Citi | Neutral | $2.10 | $2.40 | -12.5% | 8.8% |
Breville Group (BRG) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $35.00 | $40.00 | -12.5% | 10.9% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | $3.76 | $4.36 | -13.8% | 78.2% |
Civmec (CVL) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.20 | $1.40 | -14.3% | 22.4% |
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | $0.89 | $1.04 | -14.4% | 7.2% |
Adriatic Metals (ADT) | Morgans | Add | $4.50 | $5.30 | -15.1% | 20.3% |
Helloworld Travel (HLO) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $1.93 | $2.28 | -15.4% | 23.3% |
Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) | Bell Potter | Hold | $8.50 | $10.15 | -16.3% | 11.4% |
IPD Group (IPG) | Bell Potter | Buy | $4.60 | $5.50 | -16.4% | 25.3% |
EBR Systems (EBR) | Bell Potter | Buy | $2.23 | $2.69 | -17.1% | 104.6% |
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | Morgans | Add | $3.35 | $4.10 | -18.3% | 65.8% |
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | Morgans | Add | $7.25 | $9.20 | -21.2% | 30.6% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | Bell Potter | Hold | $2.70 | $3.50 | -22.9% | 28.0% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Citi | Neutral | $43.20 | $56.00 | -22.9% | 11.0% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Macquarie | Neutral | $8.90 | $11.70 | -23.9% | 2.9% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | UBS | Neutral | $0.19 | $0.31 | -38.7% | 0.0% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | Jefferies | Hold | $1.80 | $3.70 | -51.4% | -12.2% |
Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) | Ord Minnett | Hold | $0.49 | $1.11 | -55.9% | 1.0% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | Morgans | Hold | $0.18 | $0.90 | -80.0% | -5.3% |
Biggest broker target price changes since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices as on most recent session's close.
How to read broker recommendations 🔎
Typically, there are two major components of a broker’s view:
Rating: A call to action, usually along the lines of buy, hold, or sell, but depending on the broker’s ratings system, can be somewhere in between (e.g., accumulate or add is typically between a hold and a buy).
Target Price (TP): The price at which the broker expects the stock will be trading at some point in the future, generally within the next 12 months.
Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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