Morning Wrap: ASX set for modest gains following mixed night on Wall Street

ASX 200 futures are up 11 pts (+0.13%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US markets were mixed overnight, the Dow eked out a gain, S&P and Nadaq weaker

• There was a distinct lack of conviction, after Trump said the US will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait

• US bond yields fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell eased worries about potential rate rises

• The fuel price relief agreed by national cabinet could amount to at least 30 cents per litre, once the GST benefit is returned to motorists and combined with the decision to cut fuel excise in half.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 31 Mar 26, 8:20am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,344	-0.39%
Dow Jones	45,216	+0.11%
NASDAQ Comp	20,795	-0.73%
Russell 2000	2,414	-1.46%
Country Indices
Canada	31,935	-0.08%
China	3,923	+0.24%
Germany	22,563	+1.18%
Hong Kong	24,751	-0.81%
India	71,948	-2.22%
Japan	51,886	-2.79%
United Kingdom	10,128	+1.61%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,510.53	+0.34%
Copper	5.46	-0.19%
WTI Oil	105.01	+5.39%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6846	-0.09%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	66,572	+0.04%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,951	+0.97%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.342	-2.21%
VIX	30.61	-1.42%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 drifted lower throughout the session, but bounced into the close

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mainly weaker. The Dow carved out a small gain, whilst the S&P and Nasdaq finished lower

• S&P 500 at a six-month low

• WTI settles above $100 for first time since 2022

• Brent has soared about 55% in March, a record for the contract dating back to its inception in 1988.

• Treasuries rallied again with yields down 7-9 bp. Dollar index up 0.4%.

• Strategists brace for slow but steep market selloff with long-dated S&P 500 options and volatility exposure (Bloomberg)

• Fund managers warn Iran war could trigger sharp US slowdown not currently discounted by markets (Bloomberg)

• Traditional 60-40 portfolio of global equities and bonds set for worst month since 2022 (FT)

ENERGY

• Trump says Iran has agreed to allow 20 more cargo ships to transit Strait of Hormuz, calls it 'tribute' and 'sign of respect' (NY Times)

• Brent set for record monthly gain amid widening Iran conflict (Reuters)

• LME aluminium surges towards four-year highs as Iranian strikes damage major Gulf smelters (Reuters)

• Helium squeeze mounts as Iran war hits Gulf supply chains (FT)

• Australia to remove excise on fuel (Reuters) as prices hit record high (Bloomberg)

IRAN

• Trump says U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait (CNBC)

• Trump says deal could be made fairly quickly (FT)

• Trump suggests US has already achieved its goal of regime change (Bloomberg)

• Trump weighing military operation to extract ~1K pounds of uranium from Iran (MSN)

• Iran launches new missile waves at Israel as war spreads across Middle East (Reuters)

• Pakistan offers to host peace talks between US and Iran (Reuters)

STOCKS

• Eli Lilly signs a major deal with Hong Kong-listed Insilico Medicine to secure rights to AI-discovered diabetes drug (FT)

• Sony hikes PlayStation 5 prices again as AI-driven memory chip costs surge (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Villeroy says ready to act to anchor inflation expectations amid potential supply shock (Bloomberg)

• BOJ minutes show board debated need for more rate hikes as stagflation risks mount (Reuters)

• RBA expected to raise rates three more times to 17-year high amidst energy shock (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• It is shaping up as another tough session for local investors today, despite the SPI futures pointing higher. Whilst Jerome Powell poured cold water on rate hikes in the US overnight, we could be in for another three rate hikes throughout 2026. The RBA meeting minutes will make for interesting reading, but things are changing so quickly that they probably won't offer much insight. With gold and oil higher, that might provide some support for our commodities-heavy market.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• The RBA is set to release minutes from its latest policy meeting at 11.30 am.

• Private sector credit for February is also to be released late Tuesday morning.

• China is scheduled to release March manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMI data at 12.30pm.

BROKER MOVES

• Northern Star Resources (NST) upgraded to buy from sell at UBS. Target decreased to $24.70 from $28.00

• SGH Limited (SGH) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie. Target decreased to $50.40, from $53.05

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS) initiated buy at Argonaut Securities. Target A$41.20

• Santos Limited (STO) initiated buy at Argonaut Securities. Target A$9.10

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 31 Mar: Genusplus Group (GNP) – $0.02, Maas Group Holdings (MGH) – $0.035, New Hope Corporation (NHC) – $0.10, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033

• Wed 1 Apr: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.34, Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) – $0.145, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.021, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.051

• Thu 2 Apr: None

• Tue 7 Apr: Shine Justice (SHJ) – $0.015, Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) – $0.025

• Wed 8 Apr: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, Rivco Australia (RIV) – $0.037

• Thu 9 Apr: Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS) – $0.08, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL), Beach Energy (BPT), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN), Briscoe Group (BGP), Comms Group (CCG), CTI Logistics (CLX), Data3 (DTL), Echelon Resources (ECH), EDU Holdings (EDU), Karoon Energy (KAR), Pengana Capital Group (PCG), Po Valley Energy (PVE), Suncorp Group (SUN), Viva Energy Group (VEA), Wesfarmers (WES)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes

• 12:30 pm: China Manufacturing PMI

• 8:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation

• 1:00 am: US JOLTs Job Openings