Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 and Nasdaq give back early gains, Copper and gold prices surge

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks gave back early gains to finish mostly lower

• The Dow (+0.49%) added to a five day winning streak and reached record highs again, Nasdaq (-0.83%) and S&P 500 (-0.17%) snapped four days of gains, as investors digested the recent rally

• AMD (-7.0%) and SpaceX (-13.6%) both slid despite earnings beats as investors balked at surging AI capital spending, though Nvidia (+3.4%) rallied to a two-month high

• Brent Crude edged 1.2% higher to US$79.62 a barrel despite Trump saying a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal could land within days 

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks gave back early gains, with the S&P 500 (-0.17%) up as much as 0.74% in early trade

• Dow (+0.49%) eked out a fifth straight day of gains, up 6.1% since 30-Jul

• Gold (+4.1%) had its best day since 28-Jan, and rallied above US$4,200 for the first time in six weeks

• Copper (+1.8%) topped the 2-Jun all-time high, closing at a record US$6.81/lb

• Bessent certain BOJ Ueda will do what is best for Japan's economy, notes weak yen a factor behind higher inflation (RT)

• SpaceX shares poised for more volatility as $101bn becomes eligible for sale Thursday (BBG)

• S&P 500 was poised for records as the latest earnings pointed to strong demand for and spending on AI, keeping the melt-up narrative intact (BBG)

• Old-economy and industrial names outperformed as chip and AI leaders gave back recent gains, a rotation Bloomberg flagged across the session (BBG)

• AMD fell ~7% even after Q2 2026 revenue soared 50% to a record $11.54bn, 2% ahead of ests, data centre up 107% to $6.72bn, Q3 guide of $13bn tops ests, shares closed down 7% (CNBC)

• SpaceX Q2 2026 revenue up 92% to $7.81bn, 13% ahead of ests, but capex of $18.4bn including $15.8bn of AI spending sent shares down 13.6% (CNBC)

• Sandisk Q4 FY26 revenue up 372% to $8.97bn, adjusted EPS $39.25 beat ests by 14%, gross margin 84.6%, with a further $14bn buyback authorised, shares down ~6.5% after hours (TK)

• Nvidia rose more than 4% for a fifth straight gain after Elon Musk said SpaceX would build exclusively on Nvidia and expected a significant share of its 2027 GPUs (YF)

• Disney Q3 FY26 revenue up 7% to $25.25bn, just shy of ests, adjusted EPS $2.06 beat by 11%, experiences up 10% to $9.97bn, buyback lifted to at least $9bn (CNBC)

• Uber Q2 2026 revenue up 12% to $14.19bn, a touch below ests, gross bookings up 24% to $58bn, but Q3 guidance missed and shares closed down 5.3% (CNBC)

• Alphabet fell 4.0% after chief scientist Jeff Dean and three other AI veterans left to found startup Discovery Loop, which Alphabet is backing as founding investor (YF)

• Iran says agreement with Oman has been reached on a proposed route for shipping through Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Thursday as Iran and Oman inched toward an agreement on the critical waterway (AP)

• Iran and Oman are in the final stages of drafting a Hormuz shipping agreement that would give Tehran more control over transiting vessels, Tehran's foreign ministry said (CNBC)

• An Indian-flagged vessel was struck and sunk by a projectile off the coast of Yemen, Indian authorities said, without identifying who was responsible (TS)

• Trump is preparing tariffs and minimum import prices on polysilicon to lift domestic production of semiconductors and solar panels, with action possible as soon as Thursday (BBG)

• Washington is weighing a ban on Chinese optical transceivers used in data centres, a move that would strain the trade truce, after China shipped $61.6m of the parts in June (BBG)

• Trump administration has refunded ~$100bn in IEEPA tariffs, about 60% of those struck down by the Supreme Court (FT)

• US bans exports of tungsten scrap and recycled battery materials from later this month (FT)

• China tightens export controls on drones and sanctions multiple US firms in retaliatory actions (BBG)

• Fed's Kashkari says it's time to start slowly raising rates to avoid more drastic hike later (CNBC)

• Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate at 5.25% unanimously and kept a neutral stance, lifting its FY27 CPI forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% (BS)

• Governor Sanjay Malhotra said headline inflation should peak in the October to December quarter before moderating, driven mainly by food and fuel rather than broad pressures (BS)

• US private payrolls rose 44,000 in July, the least in six months and short of the 65,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey, after a downwardly revised 95,000 in June (BBG) 

• US ISM services PMI edged up to 54.1 in July from 54.0, below the 54.5 forecast, marking a 25th consecutive month of expansion (BBG)

• Alliance Aviation Services materially revised its Qantas wet lease, winning a price increase from 1-Jul-26 and a new annual escalation mechanism while stepping down from 30 aircraft to 23 across FY27, cutting committed capital and freeing aircraft for redeployment. Will right-size its workforce via a phased consultation and reaffirms FY26 underlying PBT at the ~$37.5m midpoint of $35-40m guidance (AQZ)

• AMP posts H1 underlying NPAT of $174m, in line with $173.7m ests, on revenue of $671m (1.4% miss) and statutory NPAT of $154m (3.1% miss). AUM up 3.6% y/y to $167.6bn. Interim DPS of 3c beats 2c ests, franked to 20%, alongside a further $150m on-market buyback running 20-Aug to 30-Apr (AMP)

• Block delivers Q2 adjusted EPS of US$1.02, 17.2% ahead of US$0.87 ests, on revenue of US$6.62bn (2.3% beat) and ex-items operating income of US$864m (15.5% beat). Square US GPV growth accelerated to 10%, the fastest since Q2 CY23. Lifts FY26 EPS guidance to US$4.02 from US$3.85, 3.1% above ests (XYZ)

• News Corp reports Q4 adjusted EPS of US$0.35, 45.8% ahead of US$0.24 ests, on revenue up 11% y/y to US$2.34bn (4.0% beat) and total segment EBITDA up 31% to US$423m, led by REA revenue +21% and Dow Jones EBITDA +20%. FY26 revenue rose 7% to US$9.03bn with free cash flow up 42% to US$811m (NWS)

• REA Group reports FY core EBITDA ex-associates of $1.09bn, 2.8% above $1.06bn ests, and core NPAT of $650.5m (2.1% beat) on in-line revenue of $1.79bn. Final DPS of $1.73 fully franked. Guides FY27 new Buy listings flat to down low single-digits, offset by low double-digit residential Buy yield growth on an 8% Premiere+ price rise (REA)

• Wyloo Metals is seeking a buyer for its 60% stake in the Yangibana rare earths mine, with the US Development Finance Corporation, Neo Performance Materials and Iluka Resources among at least 12 parties in the data room. The buyer also gains the right to acquire a further 10% from Hastings Technology Metals for ~$20m (AFR)

Broker data is currently pending. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 6 Aug: None

• Fri 7 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.03

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Arena REIT (ARF)

• Earnings: AMP (AMP), Beach Energy (BPT), REA Group (REA), Stanmore Resources (SMR) 

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST): 

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade