Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, US-Iran ceasefire holds, S&P 500 and Nasdaq at all-time highs

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closed at fresh all-time highs as as Hegseth's reassurance on the US-Iran ceasefire buoyed risk-appetite and lowered oil prices

• Palantir, AMD, Pfizer and Ferrari Q1 earnings all printed above consensus expectations

• Other overnight tidbits include Russia and Ukraine declare competing ceasefires, US ISM services PMI remains in expansion but price index also holding at four year highs

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks higher, finished near best levels with a steady grind through the session

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closed at fresh all-time highs

• Strong breadth, with all sectors higher, Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.79%) performing in-line with cap-weighted index and Dow up (but still ~1.8% from 10-Feb record high)

• Path of least resistance higher amid a fragile but still intact US-Iran ceasefire, a ~3.3% pullback in Brent overnight (but still up ~1% for the week), strong Q1 earnings, US ISM services PMI remaining in expansion and reopening of corporate buyback windows

• Breadth concerns escalate with one of widest gaps between S&P 500 and median stock in roughly 25 years (BBG)

• Alphabet on the cusp of overtaking Nvidia as world's most valuable company – currently US$4.77tn vs. US$4.65bn market cap (RT)

• Goldman Sachs warns easily-accessible buffers of refined oil products including jet fuel, naphtha and LPG are being depleted rapidly, raising risks of localised shortages in South Africa, India, Thailand and Taiwan (CNBC)

• Morgan Stanley's Simkowitz says dealmaking pipeline is strong, with M&A activity broadening as sponsors look to exit portfolio companies (BBG)

• Anthropic launches 10 new financial AI agents for Wall Street banks and insurers, FactSet shares dip 2.2% (YF)

• Defence Secretary Hegseth says US-Iran ceasefire 'certainly holds' after Mon-Tue escalation, with two US-flagged commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Navy escort as part of Project Freedom (CNBC)

• Putin declared a unilateral two-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark Victory Day, threatening a 'massive missile strike' on Kyiv if disrupted, while Zelenskyy countered with his own ceasefire from midnight on May 5-6 (RT)

• Israeli Defence Minister Katz warned 'it is possible that soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come' (OP)

• Goldman Sachs estimates global oil stocks at ~101 days of demand, falling to 98 days by end of May, with sharper localised shortages in refined products like jet fuel, naphtha and LPG (CNBC)

• Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warns fuel shortages were a growing concern in some regions of the world while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed (CNBC)

• Iraq is reportedly offering term buyers steep discounts on May-loaded crude, though tankers must be willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect the barrels (BBG)

• Russia's ~400,000 bpd Kirishi refinery halts operations after Ukrainian drone attack (OP)

• Palantir Q1 2026: Revenue up ~85% year-on-year, beat consensus and raised full-year guidance above estimates, but shares fell ~7% on stretched valuation concerns (WSJ)

• AMD Q1 2026: Revenue up to $10.25bn, ~4% ahead of $9.84bn ests, data centre revenue up 57% to $5.8bn, non-GAAP EPS $1.37 beat by ~10%, Q2 guidance $11.2bn revenue with 56% non-GAAP gross margin (YF)

• Pfizer Q1 2026: Revenue up 5% to $14.45bn, beat estimates by ~4%, adjusted EPS $0.75 beat by $0.03, reaffirmed full-year guidance of $59.5bn-$62.5bn revenue and $2.80-$3.00 EPS (YF)

• Ferrari Q1 2026: Net revenues up 3% to €1.85bn (up 6% constant currency), EBIT up 1% to €548M with 29.7% margin, EPS €2.33 beat consensus, deliveries down 4.4% on planned model change-over, 2026 guidance confirmed (CNBC)

• Intel surged 12% on reports it may produce processors for Apple devices (TE)

• Coinbase to cut 14% of staff, citing AI advances and market volatility (CNBC)

• USTR launched a four-day Section 301 hearing on excess industrial capacity in 16 trading partners including China, EU, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Vietnam, widely expected to lead to fresh import duties as Trump rebuilds tariff leverage after the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling (RT)

• Markets price in 50% likelihood of Fed holding rates at 3.50–3.75% by year-end, though probability of a 25 bp hike sits at 32.1% (CME)

• RBA signals pause after delivering third straight rate hike (BBG)

• US ISM services PMI for April fell to 53.6 from 54, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion, but new orders dropped 7.1 points to 53.5 ( sharpest drop in three years) and the prices index held at 70.7, the highest since 2022 (BBG)

• US trade deficit widened to $60.3bn in March from $57.8bn, with computer accessories imports up $2bn pushing capital goods imports to an all-time high on AI buildout demand (YF)

• Computershare 2H26 update observes growth in-line with expectations, client balances continue to grow, reaffirms FY26 management EPS of $1.44 and upgrades margin income guidance to $740m vs. prior $730m (CPU)

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT to sell Chicago facility for US$750m, represents a ~5% premium to Nov-24 purchase price and passing yield of 5.8%, exploring further options to realise value for LAX1-2 assets, sale proceeds to support potential capital management initiatives (DGT)

• Infratil notes CDC Data Centres signs 555MW contact with US customer, 555MW equals to ~40% of operating capacity across all Australian data centres in 2025 (IFT)

• JB Hi-Fi Q3 Australian sales up 4.0% year-on-year with comparable sales growth of 2.6% vs. 1-31 January JB Hi-Fi Australia sales growth of 4.0% and comparable sales growth of 2.4% (JBH)

• SkinKandy IPO term sheet notes investor demand exceeding the offer size at the floor price, proceeds to drive international expansion (AFR)

• Macquarie Conference (Day #2): Companies like Medibank, Wisetech, NRW and more reaffirmed their FY26 guidance at the Macquarie Conference yesterday. Most presentations are non-price sensitive, though Wisetech rallied 5.2% as a reaffirmed guidance alleviate some earnings downgrades concerns.

• Tech: Nasdaq-listed Global X Cloud Computing ETF now up 12.5% in the last three sessions, far outpacing the Tech-Software ETF (up 5.5% over the same period and fell 0.1% overnight). Still, a positive lead for local tech names. A battered name like Xero is trying to break out of a three-month trading range, second-session above the 50-day.

• The Lottery Corp downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target remains $5.70 (Morgan Stanley)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 6 May: None

• Thu 7 May:  NAB (NAB) – $0.85, Om Holdings (OMH) – $0.01

• Fri 8 May: None

• Mon 11 May: ANZ Group (ANZ) – $0.83, Future Generation Global (FGG) – $0.04

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Arena REIT (ARF), LDR Capital Property Fund (LED)

• IPOs: None

• Earnings: Westpac (WBC)

• AGMs: Rio Tinto (RIO)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Ai Group Industry Index