Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 slips as Nasdaq hits another all-time high

ASX 200 futures are down 43pts (-0.67%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 slipped amid relatively weak breadth, though the Nasdaq hit another fresh all-time high on Big Tech strength

• A relatively quiet overnight session at the headline level, a few incremental tidbits on tariffs/trade, economic data and AI M&A

• The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps later this week, markets anticipating a total ~75 bps of cuts by year-end

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower in a relatively sideways session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower in a relatively quiet and rangebound session

• Nasdaq punched out another record all-time high, though breadth was negative (Equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.72%)

• Markets fully pricing in a 25 bp cut at this week’s Fed meeting and 50 bp more by year’s end

• Last week’s economic data highlighted fairly steady inflation but a softening labour market but market buoyed by upbeat AI results (Oracle’s huge guidance upgrade, Nvidia’s demand signals, new iPhone launch) and solid outcomes at Treasury auctions

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+2.03%), S&P 500 (+1.59%), Dow (+0.95%) and Russell 2000 (+0.25%)

• BofA Hartnett says markets anticipate the Fed to be "ahead of the curve" in lowering borrowing costs (BBG)

• Russell 2000 rallies nearly 10% since July, strategists anticipate a further 20% advance as Fed rate cuts boost small caps (BBG)

• Chinese retail investors fuel record inflows into Hong Kong ETFs amid market's outperformance and tech hype (BBG)

• BofA argues emerging markets likely to receive heavier inflows in 2026 as markets prove resilient to trade disruptions (BBG)

STOCKS

• Microsoft plans to acquire at least $100bn stake in OpenAI, advancing talks for profit transition (BBG)

• OpenAI's Sam Altman and Nvidia's Jensen Huang to announce billions of dollars of investments in UK data centers (BBG)

• David Ellison targets $71bn Warner Bros after $8bn Paramount takeover (BBG)

• Adobe's stronger-than-expected guidance indicative of strong software demand, monetisation of AI tools (RT)

• Brookfield Asset Management to buy Yes! Communities for $10bn (FT)

TARIFFS

• Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier meet in Madrid this week to continue trade talks, agenda set to include trade, security and TikTok (BBG)

• US will urge G7 nations to impose punitive tariffs on India and China over purchases of Russian crude (FT)

• Lutnick expresses optimism for trade deals with Switzerland and Taiwan, but cautious about India, South Korea (BBG)

• China warns Mexico to reconsider tariffs, signaling potential retaliation against US influence (BBG)

• US and Japan agree FX should be determined by market, will not target exchange rates for competitive purposes (BBG)

• UK and US resume talks to lower steel tariffs ahead of next week's Trump state visit (PLT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• China's central bank likely to resist near-term easing amid economic weakness and surging stock market(RT)

• ECB policymakers divided on rate path as central bank maintains wait-and-see approach (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US tariff revenue reached $30bn in August, a 296% increase but budget deficit widened to $345bn (BBG)

• China's credit growth slows in August, as loan growth falls short of estimates amid soft financing demand (BBG)

• China economic weakness likely persisted in August amid deceleration in industrial production, investment (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ANZ reaches $240m settlement with ASIC regarding various matters including bond issuance, inaccurate bond turnover data, failure to pay bonus interest and more (ANZ)

• Chrysos CEO Dirk Treasure sold ~200,000 shares, representing 20.3% of his holdings, beneficially owns ~784k shares after the transaction (C79) 

• Emeco representatives testing waters on interest in the company, US-based industry player runs the ruler (The Aus)

• Gold Road cuts FY25 production guidance to 310-320koz from prior guidance of 325-355koz (GOR)

• Retail Food Group CEO Matt Marshall resigns, effective immediately, with Non-Executive Chairman Peter George appointed as Executive Chairman while company searches for a new CEO (RFG)

• Woodside receives final government approval for North West Shelf Project extension, subject to strict conditions (WDS)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Not a whole lot: A fairly quiet overnight session and start to the week. ASX 200 set to fall after a weak overnight breadth and a pullback in small caps (Russell 2000 down 1.01%, facing a bit of resistance as it tries to break through 2021 record highs). Not much on the overnight ETF front, mostly 0.5-1.0% lower. Let's see where the week takes us.

BROKER MOVES

• Accent Group initiated Buy with $1.70 target (GS)

• Nick Scali initiated Neutral with $21.00 target (GS)

• Ora Banda Mining downgraded to Underperform from Outperform; target remains $0.95 (MQG)

• Temple & Webster initiated Buy with $27.65 target (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 15 Sep:  Alfabs Australia (AAL) – $0.017, Credit Corp Group (CCP) – $0.36, Data#3 (DTL) – $0.15, EUROZ Hartleys Group (EZL) – $0.035, Fleetwood (FWD) – $0.135, Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) – $0.126, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.095, L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.065, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.27, Pengana Capital Group (PCG) – $0.02, Qube (QUB) – $0.057, Ramelius Resources (RMS) – $0.05, Saunders International (SND) – $0.003, Sports Entertainment Group (SEG) – $0.01

• Tue 16 Sep: Duratec (DUR) – $0.025, Qantas (QAN) – $0.264

• Wed 17 Sep: Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.063, Count (CUP) – $0.028, Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.29, Inghams Group (ING) – $0.08, Maas Group (MGH) – $0.035, Supply Network (SNL) – $0.38, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.03

• Thu 18 Sep: a2 Milk Company (A2M) – $0.089, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.018, Cochlear (COH) – $2.15, Embelton (EMB) – $0.20, Lycopodium (LYL) – $0.25, Macmahon Holdings (MAH) – $0.01, Mader Group (MAD) – $0.048, NRW Holdings (NWH) – $0.095, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.02, SKS Technologies (SKS) – $0.05, South32 (S32) – $0.04, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.036

• Fri 19 Sep: Latitude Group (LFS) – $0.04, Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.045

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN), Computershare (CPU), Fiducian Group (FID), Liberty Financial Group (LFG), and SHAPE Australia (SHA).

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 12:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Real Estate Sales, Fixed Asset Investment (Aug)