Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall as Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, S&P 500 futures lower, Gold prices tumble

In a nutshell:

• Wall Street was shut Friday for Juneteenth, leaving Thursday's record-tinged session (S&P 500 up 1%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.9%) as the last US read, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures currently both down around 0.4%

• Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again on Saturday over Israeli strikes in Lebanon, the US military denied any closure

• European equities traded slightly lower last Friday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.24%

• A volatile open this morning for commodities, with Brent up 1.6%, Gold down 1.6% and Copper flat

Let's dive in.

• US markets closed Friday for the Juneteenth federal holiday

• European equities paused a six-day winning streak Friday, the Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 each easing 0.24% to 0.48% as cancelled US-Iran Geneva talks revived Middle East risk 

• Asian markets were mixed Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closing up 0.28% near record territory at 71,250 and Korea's Kospi slipping 0.13% to 9,052 after first topping 9,000 the prior day 

• Indian IT names fell as much as 7% Friday after Accenture cut guidance, Tata Consultancy down over 5%, Infosys off more than 7% and the Nifty IT index sliding over 5% 

• US equities attracted a record net $119.2bn inflow in week-ended 17-Jun, on track for record $739bn inflow in 2026 (BBG)

• Markets expect Warsh to act against inflation after he declared price stability as his priority (BBG)

• Dollar resurgence swings sentiment towards EM currencies, commodity producers (FT)

• Traders betting on dollar strength amid jump in volume of call options (BBG)

• Iran's military and IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on Saturday, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and warned vessels to stay away (CNBC)

• US and Iran conduct first round of high-level talks in Switzerland on deal to end war; Vance touts progress and says US wants to facilitate permanent change in Middle East relations (AX)

• US wants first round of talks to culminate with Iranian invitation for UN inspectors to visit its nuclear sites, Iran focused on ceasefire in Lebanon, oil waivers, frozen funds (AX)

• US intelligence agencies warn Trump administration Israel's Netanyahu likely to pursue measures that will undermine Trump's push to secure lasting deal with Iran (WP)

• US Central Command says 55 merchant ships transited Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, moving significant amounts of cargo and 17m barrels of oil (RT)

• Strait of Hormuz traffic thins after brief surge, with mixed inbound/outbound tanker movements observed (BBG)

• Nitrogen prices have fallen ~50% from April peak on expectations worst of Middle East supply disruptions has passed (FT)

• ASML fell around 1.0% after Bloomberg reported US officials are probing whether one of its chipmaking machines was transferred to China in possible breach of export controls

• Luxury names LVMH, Hermes and Ferrari fell around 2-3% last Friday as the sector lagged a softer European tape

• Accenture finished Thursday down 18% after cutting FY26 revenue growth guidance to 3% to 4%, with Capgemini off 8.9% and Infosys, Cognizant and IBM down between 5.7% and 10.5% (RT)

• Accenture also announced about $4.18bn of cybersecurity acquisitions, taking a majority stake in Dragos and fully buying runZero and NetRise (RT)

• White House and Anthropic discuss new standards for assessing security flaws in advanced AI models (POL)

• Microsoft backs US bipartisan legislation bill requiring large power users to fund upfront grid upgrades for new data centers (POL)

• SpaceX bankers prepare to hold calls with investors as soon as next week to discuss potential bond offering worth $20bn (BBG)

• Aldi ramping up US expansion plan as higher food prices, strained budgets give it opportunity to disrupt grocery market and challenge likes of Walmart, Costco (FT)

• US launches Section 301 trade investigation into Germany pharmaceutical pricing and spending (FT)

• China ramping up scrutiny on exports of indium, a key metal used in next-gen data centers (RT)

• Japan core inflation remains comfortably below 2% target, subsidies depress energy costs (BBG)

• UK retail sales rebound strongly in May-volumes rise 1.2% (BBG)

• GfK survey shows UK consumer confidence steady at -23 in June, but younger people grow more pessimistic (RT)

• South Korea PPI inflation slows from 28-year high, however raw material and petroleum cost pressures persist (YH)

• A2 Milk receives SAMR to transition two China label infant milk formula product registrations to a2, intends to declare a fully franked NZ$300m special dividend (A2M)

• Ansell appoints Erik Van den Enden as CFO, effective 1-Sep-26 (ANN)

• Baby Bunting holder HMC Capital cuts holding to 13.2% from 16.8% (BBN)

• Brazilian Rare Earths demerged Alurion Resources expected to commence trading on 31-Jul under ticker ALU (BRE)

• Newmont’s Red Chris Block Cave Project receives major regulatory approvals, may now transition from current open-pit operations to block caving, extending mine life into mid-2040s (NEM)

• Perenti's Barminco business awarded A$275m mining contract for Barrick's Fourmile project (PRN)

• SGH approves on-market buyback of up to $500m over next 12 months (SGH)

• WiseTech’s Richard White under Australian Federal Police’s human exploitation probe (AFR)

• Infratil initiated with NZ$17.60 target (Goldman Sachs)

• Karoon Energy upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target remains $1.50 (Macquarie)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 22 Jun: PT Antam (ATM) – $0.067, Fisher & Paykel (FPH) – $0.27

• Tue 23 Jun: None

• Wed 24 Jun: None

• Thu 25 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Liberty Financial Group (LFG Newmont (NEM)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements