Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Nasdaq suffers its worst day since June, Copper and gold prices tumble

In a nutshell:

• The AI selloff deepened as Intel's guidance miss and Amazon's cash burn handed the Nasdaq its worst day since June

• Fed hawks lined up behind more rate hikes, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan calling for at least two more as gold slid to a one-year low

• Oil held its October gains after fresh Hormuz tanker attacks, while Trump said the US could finish off Iran's remaining nuclear sites in ten minutes

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks sharply lower, finished off worst levels after the Nasdaq 100 briefly dipped into correction territory

• US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-1.82%), Nasdaq (-2.86%), Dow (-0.85%) and Russell 2000 (+1.29%)

• Chip and PC hardware names slumped on Intel's warning, with the chip index down 7.2% and off more than 15% for October. AMD fell 10.9%, Dell 10.8% and HP 9.6% 

• VIX spiked to 23.93 intraday before easing to close at 19.41 as buyers lifted the Nasdaq 100 back above the correction line into the close 

• Gold slid to a one-year low below $3,900 an ounce and silver fell under $50 for the first time since November 2025 as higher-for-longer rate bets outweighed haven demand

• Binance resumed withdrawals on Sunday following a record $6.3bn hack, saying it has restored backing for 90% of affected user assets and will absorb the losses (CNBC)

• 82% of the 299 S&P 500 companies that have reported beat ests, with Q3 earnings growth now tracking 31.6% year-on-year, per LSEG (RT)

• AI enthusiasm is collapsing after Big Tech earnings darkened the outlook, with even companies generating stable free cash flow getting sold (BBG)

• Big Tech holds more than $3 trillion in AI spending commitments across Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle, spanning leases, buildings and energy (BBG)

• Companies falling short of lofty AI expectations are getting punished, with the week a test of whether the spending will deliver a return, says Wealthspire's Oliver Pursche (RT)

• Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15-16bn and EPS to 25 cents, well short of $17.1bn and 43 cents ests, warning of slowing PC demand. Shares sank almost 29%, the worst day since the 1970s (CNBC)

• Amazon Q3 AWS revenue up 39% to $46bn, the fastest growth in nearly five years, but EPS of $1.89 missed ests by ~4% and core e-commerce growth was the slowest in three years. Capex topped forecasts. Shares pared a 7% after-hours slide to close down 1.4% (BBG)

• Exxon Mobil Q3 profit doubled to $15.4bn from $7.5bn a year earlier, beating ests as war-driven supply disruptions lifted refining margins. Shares rose more than 2% (CNBC)

• Chevron Q3 net income up nearly 200% to $9.9bn with revenue ahead of ests, as soaring margins from Middle East supply disruptions flowed through. Shares closed higher (CNBC)

• Starbucks forecast a decline in annual revenue as it divests its China business. Shares dipped 1.8% (RT)

• Samsung hosted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and about 50 executives in South Korea on Saturday to deepen cooperation on memory chips and AI infrastructure as global shortages intensify (BBG)

• DeepSeek released a prototype autonomous coding agent dubbed Super-Agent, aiming to challenge Anthropic's Claude Code (BBG)

• Trump says the US can take out Iran's remaining one or two nuclear sites in ten minutes, after a Saturday call with Netanyahu as Washington weighs resuming strikes (YF)

• California Governor Gavin Newsom warned federal judges the Trump administration may seek warrants to seize ballots and election records before midterm results are certified (BBG)

• New Zealand stocks and the kiwi face a test as polls point to a tight 7 November election and drawn-out coalition talks. The NZ dollar is down about 6% since late August (BBG)

• Canada and the US will outline a trade plan in the coming weeks, Prime Minister Mark Carney says (BBG)

• OPEC+ kept December production targets steady at a Sunday meeting, with seven core members deferring changes to 2027 as Iran war export disruptions persist. Next meeting 29 November (RT)

• Dallas Fed Logan says the FOMC needs at least two more 25 bps hikes, adding a gradual pace can help households and markets adapt (BBG)

• St Louis Fed Musalem says another hike is needed soon, arguing earlier incremental moves are less disruptive than abrupt ones later (CNBC)

• Richmond Fed Barkin points to high inflation, solid demand and relatively low unemployment in the first round of post-FOMC commentary (RT)

• US jobs pickup may keep the Fed on track to hike again, with October payrolls forecast to more than double to 65,000 and unemployment steady at 4.2% (BBG)

• China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1, missing 50.0 ests and slipping back into contraction

• South Korea's October exports jumped 93.7% year-on-year to a record $115.3bn, with semiconductor shipments up 259% to $56.4bn

• Euro area GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, slowing from 0.6% in Q2 as France contracted 0.1%

• KMD Brands grants exclusivity to US consumer brand group Bluestar Alliance to complete confirmatory due diligence on a possible acquisition of all KMD shares, following the approaches flagged at its FY26 result. Long stop date of 23 December, with no certainty of a binding proposal (KMD)

• Macmahon Holdings completes its $75m acquisition of Aspect Engineering Solutions after the ACCC waived notification, with $30m upfront and the balance tied to retention and performance hurdles. Indicative underlying EPS accretion of ~6.2% from inception, before synergies (MAH)

• Regis Resources extends mineralisation in its half-year exploration update, with 6.2m at 1.9g/t Au around 200m south of the Garden Well South reserve and 14.3m at 4.6g/t at Beamish South, where a resource update is underway. Tropicana’s Havana South returned 12m at 6.1g/t (RRL)

• St Barbara defines a maiden underground resource at Old Austen Down-Plunge of 4.8Mt at 3.4g/t for 0.5Moz, sitting entirely outside the open pit resource updated in July. An extensive diamond campaign is being planned to upgrade the Inferred portion (SBM)

• St Barbara gets Nova Scotia sign-off to restart ore processing at Touquoy, with the mill refurbishment ahead of schedule and first ore on 3 November. Canada’s impact agency will require a duplicative federal assessment for the 15-Mile hub, putting the mid-2028 construction start at risk (SBM)

• St Barbara approves an on-market buy-back of up to 100m shares from around 23 November, with all shares acquired to be cancelled. Sits within the 10/12 limit so no shareholder approval is needed. CEO Andrew Strelein says the stock remains significantly undervalued (SBM)

• Westpac reports FY26 net profit ex-notable items of $6.99bn, in line with ests, on revenue up 1% to $22.7bn and pre-provision profit up 4% to $10.9bn. Deposits grew 6% and lending 5%. Final dividend of 77c takes FY26 to $1.54, up 1% (WBC)

• AI and miner carnage continues: The awkward juncture continues, where solid Mag-7 earnings are being scrutinised for high AI infrastructure spending and negative cash flow. The Nasdaq is now 7.8% off its 6-Oct record and dragging down our all-important resource sector along with it. Overnight, gold tanked 3.6% to undercut recent ~US$3,970 lows, now trading at a fresh 12-month low. Copper fell 1.4% to US$6.56/lb, so still in its recent trading range. Meanwhile, it was a sea of red for pretty much our entire overnight ETF watchlist, led by Silver Miners (-5.8%), Uranium (-5.5%), Gold Miners (-5.2%), Copper Miners (-5.1%), Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-5.1%) and Tech-Software (-3.4%). You’ve got the likes of uranium and rare earths/strategic metals continuing to spiral into the abyss, while the copper ETF (down 25% since 27-Aug) is testing those Mar-26 and Jul-26 lows, threatening to roll over.

• The pivot continues: On the flip side, the Equal-weight S&P 500 recorded its fourth-straight week of gains (despite falling 0.79% last Friday). Wall Street continues to experience a pivot into Energy and defensives like Staples, Utilities and Healthcare. This has, and is, a theme to watch out for. As a name like BHP falters, it's probably worth keeping an eye out for an unfortunate rotation into the likes of CBA.

• Westpac results: Speaking of banks, Westpac reports its FY26 result today. Bank of Queensland reported its FY26 result on 15-Oct, where NIM of 1.70% was running ahead of 1.68% ests, with 2H26 NIM of 1.73% vs. 1.70% ests. While its outlook pointed to a modern 1H27 NIM uplift and return to home lending growth. So a positive read through from a recent result. 

Stocks trading ex-dividend:

• Mon 2 Nov: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.037, Kapstream Investment Trust (KIT) – $0.014, La Trobe Private Credit Fund (LF1) – $0.013, N1 Holdings (N1H) – $0.004, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.013, Revolution Private Credit Income Trust (REV) – $0.014

• Tue 3 Nov: WAM Global (WGB) – $0.066

• Wed 4 Nov: None

• Thu 5 Nov: Future Generation Global (FGG) – $0.042

• Fri 6 Nov: New Murchison Gold (NMG) – $0.003

• Mon 9 Nov: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.005, Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.038, NAOS Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, NAOS Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.01

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Westpac (WBC)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Building Permits

• 12:45 pm: China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

• 2:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI