Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Nasdaq jumps 2% on tech rally, Dow hits all-time highs

In a nutshell:

• Dow closed at fresh all-time highs and above 52,000 for the first time, while the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.30%) also eked out a record close

• US and Iran agreed to halt weekend strikes near Hormuz and set Doha talks for Wednesday, though Tehran disputed the meeting, oil ticked up but held near pre-war lows

• Megacap tech stocks mostly higher, with sharp gains for Tesla (+8.4%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+3.2%)

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks closed higher and finished near session highs 

• Megacap tech led the advance, with notable gains from Tesla (+8.4%), SpaceX (+7.1%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+3.2%), while Apple (-0.7%) and Microsoft (-1.1%) underperformed

• Breadth was solid despite the underperformance of select cyclicals and defensives, Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.30%) still managed to outperform the cap-weighted benchmark by 13 bps

• Rally followed a Supreme Court ruling that left Fed governor Lisa Cook in her job for now, plus easing US-Iran tensions after the two sides agreed to halt weekend strikes  

• Equity funding costs getting more expensive amid rise in leveraged ETFs and options trading, record hedge fund exposure (RT)

• First-half IPO volumes have handily broken 2021's record level (BBG)

• Citadel says market is underestimating Fed Chair Warsh's determination to rein in inflation (BBG)

• South Korean stocks rebound on government AI spending plans but chip-led rallies push market into danger zone (BBG)

• South Korea plans US$880bn in AI chip and data-center investments from Samsung and SK Hynix (BBG)

• AI drives a record $200bn M&A boom in the US power sector to build data-center infrastructure (FT)

• Alphabet rose almost 5% in its first session as a Dow member, replacing Verizon, which fell ~5%, with the Google parent helping lift the blue-chip index above 52,000 (YF)

• Comcast climbed 4.5% after saying it will split into two publicly traded companies, separating its media and technology businesses, with the spin-off expected to complete in about a year (CNBC)

• Rocket Lab agreed to buy satellite operator Iridium for about US$8bn, or $54 a share, a roughly 24% premium, sending Rocket Lab up 15%(YF)

• Maersk boosts 2026 earnings guidance on strong container market demand (RT)

• Super Micro tumbled 8% following a report that Taiwanese officials raided its headquarters in investigation into alleged chip smuggling (TS)

• SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 before trading opens on July 7, with index funds expected to begin buying shares after the close on July 6 (CNBC)

• British American Tobacco cuts 9,000 jobs, with layoffs and outsourcing affecting about 1 in 5 (FT)

• US and Iran agreed to halt strikes after a weekend exchange near the Strait of Hormuz, with technical talks on shipping and de-escalation set for Tuesday in Doha, Qatar (CNN)

• Messaging was contradictory, Trump said Iran requested the meeting while Tehran's foreign ministry denied any talks with US technical teams were planned in Qatar this week (AJ)

• Strait of Hormuz traffic continues at a reduced level after ship attacks (BBG)

• Middle East producers keep loading oil and LNG despite Hormuz ship attacks (RT)

• 14m barrels of Iraqi oil has successfully transited through Hormuz, making way to Asia, Europe, and US (BBG)

• China targets more Japanese companies with export controls on dual-use items (CNBC)

• Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the Trump administration cannot immediately fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, letting her keep her seat while her case proceeds and reinforcing the central bank's independence (CNN) 

• Fed Chair Warsh to unveil specific details about Fed's new special task force in coming weeks (NYT)

• Richmond Fed's Barkin says inflation is too high but sees possible near-term moderation signs (BBG)

• PBoC set its new overnight liquidity tool rate below expectations, viewed by some as a de facto rate cut (BBG)

• ECB's Kazaks says there's no rush for multiple rapid hikes, better to wait for data (BBG)

• China imports of critical metals soar as Beijing looks to control global supply (NK)

• Autosports guides FY26 normalised NPBT of $51-54m well short of $71.1m ests, after BEV orders jumped from ~15% pre-March to over 40% in April, outpacing inventory and pushing a chunk of H2 deliveries into FY27. Keeps a positive FY27 outlook as the order bank converts (ASG)

• BMC Minerals sees major holder BMC UK sell down 10.8% via an $84m Barrenjoey/Morgans block trade at $2.85, a 3.7% discount, in its first major sell-down since the December IPO (BMC)

• Elevra Lithium breaks ground on its fully funded North American Lithium expansion, with Stage 1 targeting a 15-20% lift in spodumene concentrate capacity and lower unit costs on completion mid-CY27 (ELV)

• Humm Group ordered to pay for costs associated with Credit Corp takeover proceedings as the company’s behaviour disrupted, hindered and delayed proceedings (HUM)

• Commodities struggle: Another fairly weak overnight lead for most commodities, gold down 1.8%, copper traded fairly rangebound and finished 0.2% lower, silver down 1.4%, aluminium down 3.1% to a four-month low (now down ~17% since 2-Jun), nickel down 3.2% to a fresh year-to-date low (now down ~15% since 2-Jun). US-listed Gold Miners ETF fell 1.7% overnight, Copper Miners down 0.5%.

• Discretionary, Staples and Healthcare: These three battered and unloved sectors have outperformed all other sectors in the past month, by a wide margin, up 14.7%, 13.1% and 12.6% respectively. A real change-of-character kind of rally (e.g. Healthcare was in a persistent downtrend since Aug-25, which featured a handful of 4-5% oversold bounces into the 50-day moving average, before another aggressive leg down. Now, the index is trading meaningfully above the 50-day.) The three sectors are getting a little overextended/overbought, but will be interesting to see if such outperformance can continue.

• Coronado Global downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $0.21 from $0.38 (UBS)

• JB Hi-Fi downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $83 from $85 (UBS)

• Whitehaven Coal downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $8.70 from $9.10 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 30 Jun: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.031, LDR Capital Property Fund (LED) – $0.016, Lowell Resources Fund (LRT) – $0.15, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.015, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.029, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.009, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.352, Regal Investment Fund (RF1) – $0.12

• Wed 1 Jul: Graincorp (GNC) – $0.14, Revolution Private Credit Income Trust (REV) – $0.013

• Thu 2 Jul: None

• Fri 3 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Transmetro Corp (TCO)

• Earnings: Collins Foods (CKF)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: RBA meeting minutes

• 11:30 am: China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI

• 10:00 pm: Germany inflation

• 12:00 am: US JOLTs job openings