Morning Wrap: ASX 200 eyes sixth day of losses as AI selloff and bond yields hit Wall Street

In a nutshell:

• Wall Street lower for a third straight session as soaring global bond yields send long-term borrowing costs to highest in decades and oil prices edged higher, weighing on risk-driven pockets of the market like tech

• A global long-bond selloff sent the US 30-year to a 19-year high, with Japanese, German and French long yields all hitting multi-decade peaks

• Brent fractionally higher to US$91.34 after Trump ruled out extending the expired Iran memorandum and threatened to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz talks

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks lower, finished near worst levels and now on a three-day losing streak

• Declines over the last three sessions: S&P 500 (-1.37%), Nasdaq (-1.92%), Dow (-0.92%) and Russell 2000 (-1.15%)

• Bond yields briefly marked fresh multi-year highs, but finished the session lower, with the US 30-year up as much as 2 bps to 5.33%, the highest since Jun-07, before easing back down to 5.28% 

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.0% and was on pace to erase more than ~$680bn of market value, with S&P 500 information technology the biggest sector drag at down 1.9%

• Memory and storage names led the rout, SanDisk down 9%, Seagate down 9%, Marvell down 7.8% and Western Digital 7.4%, while Nvidia lost 2.3%

• S&P 500 Healthcare sector closed at all-time highs, now up 9.4% year-to-date

• Deutsche Bank says there was no single catalyst for the past 24 hours of weakness, with investors pricing a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC) 

• A Wall Street Journal analysis of nine large tech firms found about $3trn of off-balance-sheet AI commitments against roughly $600bn of reported capex, triggering rotation out of AI hardware (YF)

• Eurozone 10-year yield climbed above 3.2%, a 15-year high, while Germany's 30-year hit its highest since 2011 and France's 30-year a post-2008 peak (CNBC) 

• Japan's 10-year yield climbed to a three-decade high of about 2.945% as a Middle East stalemate stoked inflation worries and reinforced Bank of Japan hike bets (RT) 

• Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel told clients S&P 500 9,000 is attainable within 12 months against a 7,750 base case, arguing the usual bull-market enders are absent (ST)

• Fundstrat's Mark Newton sees long-term yields pushing to 5.60% to 5.70% and moving faster than normal after the resolution of a three-year triangle pattern (CNBC)

• Home Depot Q2 FY26 revenue up 5.7% to $47.86bn, ~1% ahead of ests, adjusted EPS $4.92 beat by ~4%, comparable sales up 1.7% vs. 0.7% ests, received $730m tariff refunds, reaffirmed full-year guidance, shares finished flat (CNBC)

• Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said the company continues to operate in "frozen housing market conditions" despite the strongest comparable sales since fiscal Q3 2022 (CNBC)

• KKR made a $9bn unsolicited takeover bid for US gas and electricity distributor UGI at $42.50 a share, a 21.1% premium to Monday's close, lifting UGI about 12% (RT)

• Baidu Q2 revenue down 4% to RMB31.33bn, about 2% short of ests, non-GAAP EPS per ADS RMB7.22 missed by roughly 27%, online marketing down 19% while AI Cloud Infra rose 50% (YF)

• Nvidia agreed to guarantee as much as $105bn of financing for SoftBank unit SB Energy's Ohio data centre project for OpenAI, capped in an SEC filing tied to Monday's signing (BBG)

• Nasdaq said it will launch a 9pm to 4am ET trading session from 6 December, moving towards nearly continuous 23-hour trading five days a week (IVT)

• Xiaomi said it expects the pace of memory price increases to slow in the second half, a note of caution for the sector's pricing cycle (IVT)

• Trump threatened to bomb Oman because he is unhappy it is close to a deal with Iran to manage ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, two regional officials said (WP)

• Iranian parliamentary speaker Qalibaf said Hormuz will not reopen until the US lifts the blockade, releases frozen assets and ends oil sanctions (AP)

• Trump said informal talks were underway with Iran's Revolutionary Guard but that he was "not in a hurry" to reach an agreement, with the 60-day memorandum now expired (CNBC)

• Netanyahu and Kushner agreed Gaza demilitarisation should begin with a Hamas weapons handover supervised by an American military general, a senior Israeli official said (NBC)

• Xi Jinping will skip the UN General Assembly during a three-day US trip next month and meet Trump on 24 September (BBG)

• Carney spoke with Trump on Tuesday afternoon as Canada tries to avert 50% US tariffs on about $20bn of imports taking effect just after midnight on Wednesday (RT)

• The two sides discussed cutting US Section 232 tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% from 25%, with further reductions tied to the amount of US content in each vehicle (RT)

• Minutes from the Fed's July meeting are due Thursday morning and could clarify how policymakers are weighing the oil shock against softening activity data (RT) 

• US housing starts fell 12.4% month-on-month in July to an annualised 1.239m, well short of ests of 1.350m and down 13.5% year-on-year (BBG) 

• US industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month in July, following an upwardly revised 0.3% gain, driven by manufacturing strength tied to business investment (BBG) 

• German ZEW economic sentiment rose 7.9 points to 34.2 in August, well above ests of 30 and the highest since February, with current conditions up 16.5 points to -61.1 (RT) 

• UK unemployment held at 4.9% in the three months to June against ests of 4.8%, with private sector regular earnings growth slowing to 2.8%, the weakest since late 2020 (BBG)

• Australia's Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index rose 6.0% to 88.9 in August from 83.9, still down almost 10% year-on-year with pessimists outnumbering optimists (RT)

Peak reporting season is here! Here's a snapshot of the stocks that have reported so far this morning, with many more still to come. Check out the Live Blog for a proper breakdown of the results and how they compare vs. estimates.

• Alcidion Group delivers FY26 revenue of $51.6m, up 27%, with ARR up 34% to $38.3m and underlying EBITDA up 34% to $6.8m at 100% cash conversion. FY27 contracted revenue of $44.9m, up 32%, with revenue and EBITDA expected to outperform FY26. Cash of $20.6m, no debt (ALC)

• Breville Group posts record FY26 sales of $1.8bn, up 6.7% (9.7% constant currency), with EBIT of $207m in line with guidance and net cash of $104.4m. 2H26 gross margin strengthened to 36.8% on US sourcing mix. New markets China, Korea, Mexico and Middle East collectively grew over 70%. Final dividend 38.0 cps, 100% franked (BRG)

• BWP Trust reports FY26 FFO up 4.5% to $140.9m (19.29 cps, up 2.1%) and statutory NPAT up 53.8% to $408.4m. Distributions of 19.41 cps, up 4.1%. WALE lifted to 7.3 years post Bunnings reset, NTA up 3.3% to $4.11, and Moody's upgraded the rating to A3 stable (BWP)

• EBOS Group delivers FY26 revenue up 9.9% to $13.5bn and underlying EBITDA up 5.0% to $614m, though underlying NPAT fell 3.1% to $250m on higher D&A and financing costs. Statutory NPAT up 4.7% to $225m. Completed its four-year $360m DC renewal program. Final dividend held at NZ 61.5 cps (EBO)

• SCEE Group posts FY26 underlying EBITDA up 40.5% to $77.0m and underlying NPAT up 24.3% to $39.4m, despite revenue down 10.3% to $718.7m on completion of the CBESS and Western Sydney Airport projects. Record order book of $810m, up 18.2%, and record cash of $261.5m. FY27 EBITDA guidance of at least $100m (SXE)

• Temple & Webster delivers record FY26 revenue of $665m, up 11%, with EBITDA up 17% to $21.9m and underlying EBITDA (ex-FX) up 28% to $25.9m. Targeting FY27 EBITDA of $33-40m, up ~50-80%. New CEO Susie Sugden to detail strategy at the AGM (TPW)

• Turners Automotive retains its FY27 $65m NPBT target at its AGM but flags rising market risks, with 1H27 trading materially harder as Middle East-driven fuel prices dent demand for diesel and larger vehicles. Group profit for the four months to July up 4%, with the loan book up 7.5% since March. $100m NPBT by FY31 target reiterated (TRA)

• Commodity pullback, energy strength and software resilience: Commodity prices struggled amid the rising bond yield backdrop, with overnight ETFs for Uranium (-3.6%), Silver Miners (-3.5%), Gold (-3.2%), Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-3.0%) and Copper Miners (-2.0%) trading broadly lower. Though the S&P 500 Energy Sector closed at a second straight all-time high. Interestingly, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF finished 0.03% lower, perhaps some resilience as software names continue to highlight solid growth and operating leverage (what a move for Pro Medicus yesterday, opened slightly lower, finished the session 11.8% higher).

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 19 Aug: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – $2.70, ECP Emerging Growth (ECP) – $0.032, Resmed (RMD) – $0.066

• Thu 20 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.03, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.085, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.01, Solaris Australian Equity Income Plus (SET) – $0.003

• Fri 21 Aug: ASX (ASX) – $1.047, Lendlease Group (LLC) – $0.095

• Mon 24 Aug: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.15, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.20, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.33, Regal Asian Investments (RG8) – $0.10

• Tue 25 Aug: AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.26, Amotiv (AOV) – $0.23

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Arafura Rare Earths (ARU), BCI Minerals (BCI), Blackwall (BWF), Boom Logistics (BOL), Breville Group (BRG), BWP Trust (BWP), Cosol (COS), Energy One (EOL), Environmental Group (EGL), Evolution Mining (EVN), Hansen Technologies (HSN), Healius (HLS), Iluka Resources (ILU), Integrated Research (IRI), Lottery Corporation (TLC), Lycopodium (LYL), Mirvac Group (MGR), MoneyMe (MME), Santos (STO), Service Stream (SSM), Shape Australia (SHA), Solvar (SVR), Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE), Stealth Group Holdings (SGI), Stockland (SGP), Superloop (SLC), Temple & Webster Group (TPW), Viva Leisure (VVA), Whitehaven Coal (WHC), Yancoal Australia (YAL)

• IPOs: None 

• AGMs: Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 12:45 pm: RBA Hauser Speech

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation

• 4:00 am: FOMC Minutes