ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 19th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 19. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Evolution delivers record result, lifts payout rate to 60% of cash flow

[9:28 am] The gold and copper miner posted its strongest financial result on record, moving to a net cash position and upgrading its dividend policy on the back of surging margins and cash generation.

• Underlying EBITDA up 44% to a record $3,171m vs $3.12bn Macquarie ests (2% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 63% to a record $1,563m vs $1.60bn Macquarie ests (2% miss)

• EPS up 57% to a record 73cps

• Group cash flow up 76% to a record $1,389m, at a margin of $1,958/oz

• Record final fully franked dividend of 21.0cps, up 62%, taking the full-year dividend to a record 41.0cps vs 40cps Macquarie ests (3% beat), returning around $833m to shareholders

• Dividend policy improved to ~60% of Group cash flow, up from around 50%, with the group moving to a net cash position ($1,347m cash vs. $1,329m debt) and no repayments due until FY29

• FY27 guidance for gold production of 660-730koz (midpoint broadly in line with Macquarie ests) and copper of 63-70kt, at AISC of $1,795-1,995/oz, the midpoint running around 10% above Macquarie ests of $1,717

Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)

Hansen delivers recurring revenue growth and margin expansion, flags FY27 as transition year

[9:19 am] The software provider lifted underlying earnings and margins despite a small revenue decline, driven by its growing recurring revenue base and AI-led productivity gains.

The below ests refer to Ord Minnett forecasts and not consensus.

• Revenue down 1.5% to $386.5m vs $399.3m ests (3% miss), reflecting lower licence fees and foreign exchange headwinds

  • Support & Maintenance revenue up 13.4% to $230.3m, reinforcing the recurring revenue base

• Underlying EBITDA up 7.2% to $119.6m vs $120.8m ests (1% miss),

• Underlying EBITDA margin up 250bps to 31.0% vs. 30.3% ests (70 bp beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 22.5% to $48.5m

  • Unclear if comparable to reported NPAT ests of $44.4m

• Operating cash flow up 52.0% to $110.4m, with a cash conversion ratio of 0.9x and leverage of 0.1x after repaying $63.5m of borrowings

• FY27 revenue expected broadly stable with Support & Maintenance revenue growth of about 6-8%, and Underlying EBITDA margin expected to exceed 26%

• Board views FY27 as an investment and transition year, expecting a net cash position during Q2 FY27 and a return to revenue growth and a 30%-plus EBITDA margin in FY28

Company page: Hansen Technologies (HSN)

Stockland delivers FY26 at top end of guidance, positioned for FY27 growth

[9:17 am] The diversified property group posted double-digit funds from operations growth on materially higher development settlements, guiding to further FFO growth in FY27.

• Post-tax Funds From Operations up 10.4% to $892m, with FFO per security of 36.9cps at the top end of the guidance range

• Statutory profit up 20.2% to $994m

• NTA per security up 4.0% to $4.39, with management fee income up 20% to $119m

• Development FFO up 17.3% to $540m on higher settlement volumes and fee income, with MPC lot settlements up 30% to 8,902 and LLC home settlements up 48% to 777

• Investment Management FFO up 2.6% to $606m, with Logistics comparable FFO up 8.1% and re-leasing spreads of 33.8%

• Full-year distribution of 25.2cps post tax, a 69% payout ratio, with gearing of 22.7% within the 20-30% target range

• FY27 guidance for FFO per security of 38.0-39.0cps and distribution of 25.2cps, in line with FY26

Company page: Stockland (SGP)

Lycopodium delivers FY26 within guidance, flags FY27 as a record year ahead

[9:14 am] The engineering and project delivery firm posted a solid result underpinned by its global project portfolio, with a sharply higher dividend and a strong outlook despite Middle East-related project delays.

• Revenue of $377.5m, within the $370-410m guidance range

• EBITDA of $59.5m

• NPAT of $40.2m, within the $37-41m guidance range and reflecting a 10.6% NPAT margin

• Fully franked final dividend of 37cps, taking full-year DPS to 59cps, up 69% on FY25 and reflecting a 60% payout ratio

• Healthy cash balance of $106.2m at 30 June 2026, with committed contracts of $661m

• FY27 guidance of revenue of $540-580m and NPAT of $54-58m, with the CEO flagging results set to surpass recent years as delayed projects ramp up

Company page: Lycopodium (LYL)

Whitehaven delivers robust FY26 result on strong output and cost discipline

[9:13 am] The coal miner offset cyclical price weakness and a stronger Australian dollar with record production and lower unit costs, entering FY27 into a firmer met coal market.

• Revenue down 7% to $5.4bn, split 57% metallurgical and 43% thermal, underpinned by an average achieved coal price of $202/t

• Underlying EBITDA of $1.3bn, reflecting strong operational performance and disciplined cost management

• Underlying NPAT of $227m, with statutory NPAT of $385m after $158m of adjustments mainly from BMA contingent payment remeasurement and FX gains

• Unit cost of coal of $132/t, down from $139/t in FY25

• Managed ROM production up 3% to 40.3Mt, at the top end of guidance, with managed sales of produced coal up 8% to 32.7Mt

• Fully franked final dividend of 6.0cps (around $47m), alongside an equal $47m of share buybacks over six months

• Net debt of $1.3bn after the second US$500m deferred BMA payment, with available liquidity of $959m and refinancing set to deliver around $50-55m of annualised interest savings

Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

Lottery Corp holds dividend through a 1-in-45-year jackpot drought

[9:10 am] An especially unfavourable run of Powerball and Oz Lotto jackpots weighed on the lotteries operator's FY26 result, though pricing retention and Keno growth cushioned the underlying performance.

• Revenue down 2.7% to $3.58bn vs $3,707m ests (3% miss)

• EBITDA down 1.8% to $736.1m vs $744m ests (1% miss)

• EBIT down 4.2% to $622.3m vs $633m ests (2% miss)

• NPAT down 6.3% to $342.5m, broadly in line with ests on an unnamed basis, with NPAT including significant items down 22% to $284.6m

• Full-year dividend maintained at 16.5cps fully franked vs 16.0cps ests (3% beat), representing a payout ratio of 107% of NPAT before significant items

• The 40-year Victorian lottery licence extension lowered portfolio risk, though leverage of 3.1x will rise materially in 1H27 after the $1,145m licence payment, likely beyond the 3.0-4.0x target range

• FY27 guidance for operating expenses of $305-315m (FY26: $296m) and capex of about $100m, with the dividend policy shifting to 80-100% of NPATA before significant items

Company page: The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

Shape lifts revenue above $1.2bn as diversification strategy drives 50% profit growth

[9:08 am] The fitout and construction services specialist delivered strong top-line and earnings growth, underpinned by rapid expansion in data centres and modular building.

• Revenue up 30% to more than $1.2bn vs $1,188m ests (around 1% beat)

• Gross margin improved to 9.8% from 9.2%, supported by disciplined project selection and cost controls

• EBITDA up 53% to $50.1m vs $48m ests (4% beat)

• NPAT up 50% to $31.7m, ahead of ests on an unnamed basis, with EPS up 49% to 38.1cps

• Final dividend of 18.0cps, taking total declared dividends to 32.0cps, up 42% on FY25

• Data centre revenue rose to $109.1m (FY25: $0.5m) and Modular by SHAPE revenue up 228% to $74.1m, with office revenue share falling to 43% from 60%

• Enters FY27 with an identified pipeline of $4.8bn and backlog orders of $628.4m, having completed the Arden and APS acquisitions

Company page: Shape Australia Corporation (SHA)

EBOS delivers solid FY26 result as major investment cycle completes

[9:03 am] The healthcare and animal care distributor grew revenue and EBITDA within guidance, marking the completion of its four-year distribution centre renewal program.

• Revenue up 9.9% to $13.5bn vs $13,582m ests (in line)

• Gross operating revenue up 6.5% to $1.7bn

• Underlying EBITDA up 5.0% to $614m vs $614m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT down 3.1% to $250m, reflecting higher depreciation, amortisation and financing costs from the investment cycle, though ahead of ests on an unnamed basis

• Statutory NPAT up 4.7% to $225m

• Final dividend maintained at NZ 61.5cps, with a payout ratio of 84.5% of underlying NPAT, while leverage of 2.1x sat within the 1.7-2.3x target range

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $635-655m, with capex reducing materially to about $100m following completion of the renewal program

Interesting Citi comment on 14-Jul: "EBO is in a transition period where time and money has been invested in renewing infrastructure and the company should get back to mid single digit EBITDA growth next year. We see 7% growth, slightly ahead of consensus.". At the midpoint, today's FY27 guidance implies $645m or 5.0% year-on-year growth.

Company page: EBOS Group (EBO)

Turners holds FY27 $65m target as Middle East conflict dents NZ demand

[9:00 am] The automotive retailer and financier reaffirmed its full-year target at its annual meeting but flagged rising short-term risks as higher fuel prices weigh on vehicle demand.

• Group profit for the four months to July tracking 4% ahead of the same period in FY26, with Finance growth more than offsetting lower Auto Retail profit

• FY27 target of $65m NPBT retained, though management flagged increased risk to achieving it absent a resolution to the Middle East situation and a recovery in consumer confidence

• Vehicle margins hit harder and for longer than anticipated in May, with higher fuel prices materially reducing demand for diesel and larger petrol engine vehicles

• Consignment units down 14% July year to date, described as a timing issue as lease vendor pricing expectations adjust

• Finance loan book up a further 7.5% since March 2026, with arrears holding up well, while Insurance and Credit Management were broadly in line with last year

• Medium-term $100m NPBT target by FY31 reiterated, with Auto Retail branch expansion work continuing at pace

Company page: Turners Automotive Group (TRA)

Southern Cross Electrical lifts earnings 40% on margin step-up, guides to $100m EBITDA

[8:59 am] The electrical and communications contractor delivered record profitability despite lower revenue, with a stronger project mix and Force Fire contribution driving margins higher.

• Revenue down 10.3% to $718.7m as the CBESS and Western Sydney International Airport Terminal projects completed in the first half

• Gross profit up 29.1% to a record $136.7m, with gross margin expanding to 19.0% from 13.2%

• Underlying EBITDA up 40.5% to $77.0m

• Underlying EBIT up 40.3% to $64.4m

• Underlying NPAT up 24.3% to $39.4m, though statutory NPAT fell 77.6% to $7.1m on $46.1m of WestConnex dispute costs

• Total fully franked dividends up 33.3% to 10.0cps, including a record final of 7.5cps, with a record cash balance of $261.5m and no debt

• Record order book of $810m, up 18.2%, with FY27 EBITDA guidance of at least $100m (up around 30% on FY26) and data centre revenue forecast to triple from $120m in FY26

Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

BWP grows FFO and distributions as strategic reset reshapes portfolio

[8:57 am] The Bunnings landlord delivered a steady result with earnings growth, a firmer cap rate and an upgraded credit rating, capping a three-year reset of its portfolio and balance sheet.

• Funds from operations up 4.5% to $140.9m, with FFO per security up 2.1% to 19.29cps

• Statutory net profit after tax up 53.8% to $408.4m, including fair value movements

• Total distributions up 4.1% to 19.41cps

• NTA per security up 3.3% to $4.11, with portfolio value rising $257.0m on improved rental income and a firming in the weighted average cap rate to 5.25%

• Like-for-like rental growth of 3.0%, with large format retail leasing spreads up an average of 23.6%

• Portfolio WALE increased to 7.3 years following management internalisation and the Bunnings lease reset, while Moody's upgraded BWP's credit rating to A3 stable

• FY27 distribution guidance of 20.00cps, around 3.0% growth on FY26, reflecting an expected payout ratio of about 104% of FFO

Company page: BWP Trust (BWP)

Breville delivers record $1.8bn revenue with EBIT in line despite tariff upheaval

[8:55 am] The premium appliance maker grew revenue to a record in a year marked by four US tariff restructures and a substantially completed shift of its manufacturing footprint out of China.

• Revenue up 6.7% to a record $1.8bn vs $1,842m ests (around 2% miss), with reported growth dampened by second-half USD and Euro weakness

• Global Segment constant currency revenue growth of 9.7%, with double-digit growth in 2H26

• EBIT of $207m vs $207m ests (in line), delivered in line with budget and prior guidance

• 2H26 gross margin of 36.8%, above both 1H26 and the pcp, driven primarily by US sourcing mix

• Final dividend of 19.0cps (100% franked), taking full-year dividends to 38.0cps, up 2.7% and reflecting the target payout ratio of about 40% of EPS

• Group net cash of $104.4m at year end, with manufacturing diversification substantially complete and 85% of 120-volt product gross profit dollars now sourced outside China

• Young markets of China, Korea, Mexico and the Middle East collectively grew over 70%, with the China team delivering 7.1 times the revenue of its previous distributor

Company page: Breville Group (BRG)

Temple & Webster delivers record FY26 revenue, guides to strong FY27 EBITDA growth

[8:55 am] The online furniture and homewares retailer lifted profitability through margin initiatives despite a soft consumer, and is targeting a step-up in earnings next year.

• Revenue up 11% to $665m vs Morgan Stanley ests of $670m (1% miss), a record in a challenging consumer environment

• Reported EBITDA up 17% to $21.9m vs MS ests of $21m (4% beat), a 3.3% margin

• Underlying EBITDA (ex-FX) up 28% to $25.9m

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $33-40m, up approximately 50-80% on FY26, with current margin run-rates implying around $40m in a low-growth scenario

• FY27 year-to-date revenue down 13% on pcp, cycling 28% growth a year earlier, though contribution margin dollars up 10%

• Cash balance of $123m after $30m of on-market buy-backs, with operating cash flow of $24m

Here's a bit of perspective: TPW is down 63% year-to-date and trading around recent lows. The company released a trading update on 13 May that guided to FY26 revenue of $665-675m and EBITDA of $20-22m, so revenue landed at the bottom of the range while EBITDA came in at the top. After the update, Macquarie slashed its FY26-28 earnings forecasts by 50-57% and cut its target from $13.70 to $4.75. Management reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA of $40m, yet Macquarie's forecast sat at just $26m. Even at a lower guidance midpoint of $33-40m ($36.5m midpoint), that's a 40% beat on Macquarie's estimates.

Company page: Temple & Webster (TPW)

Alcidion delivers record profitability on 27% revenue growth

[8:46 am] The health informatics provider posted its strongest result to date, with accelerating recurring revenue and a strategic acquisition underpinning a positive FY27 outlook.

• Revenue up 27% to $51.6m

• ARR up 34% to $38.3m as at 30 June 2026

• Underlying EBITDA up 34% to $6.8m

• Operating cash flow up 19% to $6.8m, representing 100% underlying EBITDA cash conversion

• Cash balance of $20.6m with no debt at 30 June 2026

• FY27 contracted revenue of $44.9m as at 30 June 2026, up 32% on the pcp, providing strong forward visibility

• FY27 revenue and Underlying EBITDA expected to exceed FY26, underpinned by a diversified pipeline and new contracts with Leidos, UH Sussex NHS and North Cumbria NHS, plus the Kyra flow products acquisition

Company page: Alcidion (ALC)

Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Iran deal as Strait of Hormuz stays shut

[8:44 am] Tensions in the Gulf escalated as Washington opposed a proposed Iran-Oman deal to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with fresh attacks reported on vessels in the region.

• Trump threatened to bomb Oman over its involvement in a yet-to-be-announced deal on joint Iranian and Omani management of the strait's exit route, according to two regional officials

• The US believes Oman has not been tough enough with Iran and objects to its agreement to collect voluntary fees from vessels

• Iran said the strait will not reopen until the US lifts the blockade, releases frozen assets, removes oil sanctions and ends military operations

• Trump insisted the strait is "open and operating" and that the US blockade remains in full force, despite limited traffic and the lapse of the 60-day negotiating period on Monday

• A projectile struck a ship exiting the strait off Oman causing a casualty, a cargo vessel was rendered a total loss off Yemen, and the UAE said two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran toward it

• Houthi rebels claimed drone attacks on a Saudi Aramco refinery, adding to threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait

Nvidia to back OpenAI's Ohio data centre with up to $105bn

[8:44 am] Nvidia has agreed to lend its balance sheet to a massive Ohio computing campus leased by OpenAI, deepening the ties between two of the AI boom's dominant players.

• The pact covers Nvidia backing for the initial 4.25GW portion of the Pike County complex, with an option to take on a second 3.75GW phase for up to roughly 8GW of total capacity

• First 800MW expected online by 2028, with Nvidia's phased backing running from 2028 to 2030 across a 20-year term

• OpenAI's broader commitment to buy Nvidia gear could represent about $600bn of revenue for Nvidia through 2030

• CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on circular-financing concerns, saying OpenAI will pay the lease and Nvidia only secures inputs when it has visibility into customer demand

• Deal structure faces scrutiny amid growing fears that some AI hardware demand is being stoked by circular arrangements, following reports Nvidia had earlier discussed a lease guarantee of as much as $250bn

Source: Bloomberg

Strategists see scope for the long-bond selloff to run further

[8:41 am] The 30-year US Treasury yield sits at a 19-year high, and several strategists argue three forces could push long-dated yields higher still despite softening domestic data.

• Global participation is one driver, with higher JGB yields spilling into US markets and fiscal concerns across the US, Japan, UK and Europe risking a global repricing of borrowing costs

• Fundstrat sees long-term yields pushing to 5.60-5.70% at a quicker pace than normal following a technical breakout

• A too-strong economy is another risk, with Deutsche Bank noting CPI above 3% has historically coincided with more than 100bp of tightening in the first year of hiking cycles

• Heavy supply is a third pressure point, with the latest 30-year auction clearing at its highest yield since 2001 and demand for long-duration debt looking less than robust

Source: CNBC

Japan's 10-year yield hits three-decade high on inflation and BOJ bets

[8:42 am] Japanese government bond yields climbed as a stalemate in the Middle East stoked inflation worries and firmed expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate rise.

• The 10-year JGB yield added 1.5bp to 2.935%, after earlier touching 2.945% for the first time since September 1996

• The 2-year yield, most sensitive to policy expectations, rose 1bp to 1.7%, its highest since May 1995

• The 20-year and 30-year yields rose 2.5bp to 2.935% and 4bp to 4.115% respectively in morning trade

• BOJ commentary has turned increasingly hawkish, with reports the board may pursue more aggressive tightening than to date

Source: Reuters

Memory stocks tumble on WSJ report flagging $3tn in hidden AI commitments

[8:39 am] US memory chip makers sold off sharply as a Wall Street Journal analysis of tech-sector footnotes reignited concerns over the scale of AI-related spending.

• SanDisk fell ~9%, Micron ~7% and Western Digital ~5% as investors rotated out of AI hardware

• The WSJ found nine top tech companies carry roughly $3tn of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly tied to AI, about triple their outstanding leases and long-term borrowings

• Those obligations dwarf the roughly $600bn of traditional capex spent over the past reported year

• The report followed softer-than-expected frontier lab figures, with Anthropic's annualised revenue run rate at $65bn and OpenAI's ARR at $40bn, both below privately circulated numbers

• Reuters reported Anthropic is guiding to 2028 revenue of $190-200bn, again short of the most bullish estimates

Source: Yahoo Finance

Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs on fiscal and inflation fears

[8:38 am] Long-dated government bonds sold off worldwide as investors priced in deteriorating fiscal positions, sticky inflation and rising Middle East tensions.

• US 30-year yields hit a fresh 19-year high before easing to 5.285%, with the 10-year at 4.706% and the 2-year at 4.175%

• US fiscal deficit jumped to $432.3bn in July, its highest monthly total since March 2021, taking the year-to-date shortfall to nearly $1.8tn

• Multi-decade highs seen globally with Japan's 10-year at a 30-year high, Germany's 30-year the highest since 2011 and France's 30-year at a post-2008 high

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 24 pts (-0.26%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street lower for a third straight session as soaring global bond yields send long-term borrowing costs to highest in decades and oil prices edged higher, weighing on risk-driven pockets of the market like tech

  • S&P 500 (-0.69%), Nasdaq (-1.33%), Dow (-0.22%), Russell 2000 (-1.30%)

• A global long-bond selloff sent the US 30-year to a 19-year high, with Japanese, German and French long yields all hitting multi-decade peaks

• Brent fractionally higher to US$91.34 after Trump ruled out extending the expired Iran memorandum and threatened to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz talks