Gold stocks smashed: Here are today's top large cap decliners

A wave of selling hit ASX-listed gold stocks as the US-China tariff truce prompted investors to pivot from safe-haven assets like gold miners, Woolworths, and Commonwealth Bank, and towards growth-oriented sectors.

Gold prices dropped 2.7% overnight to US$3,230 per ounce, the lowest since April 16, 2025, extending a 5.9% decline over three of the past four sessions amid ongoing trade de-escalation talks.

Gold miner selloff

Large-cap gold miners opened lower on Tuesday and continued sliding into the afternoon, with an average decline of 8.0%. Despite the downturn, these stocks remain up an average 35% year-to-date.

Below is a snapshot of key ASX gold miners, including their performance, price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and year-to-date gains.

Data as at 1:00 pm AEDT, Tuesday 13 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Valuations reflect the soaring gold price environment, with forward PE ratios expected to drop significantly as companies report stronger earnings. However, low PE ratios can be deceptive. Miners often appear 'cheap' during commodity booms, which typically signal a cycle peak. Conversely, they may seem expensive when commodity prices (and subsequently earnings) tumble, inflating multiples.

Where to from here?

The US-China tariff truce, lowering US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for 90 days, has bolstered global growth prospects, lifting equities and commodities (excluding gold).

Other trade developments include:

• A US-UK trade deal reducing tariffs on UK cars (from 25% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually) and eliminating tariffs on UK steel and aluminum.

• Ongoing US negotiations with Japan, South Korea, and India to lower tariffs.

• A US-brokered military ceasefire between India and Pakistan, easing regional tensions.

Macquarie analysts warn that defensive sectors like gold may continue to lag in the near term as investor sentiment shifts toward riskier assets.

Gold price outlook

Despite the recent pullback, analysts remain bullish on gold.

JPMorgan (Apr-25) forecasts prices reaching US$3,675 per ounce by year-end and US$4,000 by mid-2026. Goldman Sachs (Apr-25) recently raised its year-end target to US$3,700. However, such aggressive upward revisions in forecasts may indicate a cycle peak. The World Gold Council reported US$11 billion in inflows into global physically backed gold ETFs in April, marking five consecutive months of inflows, signaling sustained investor interest.

Where to find value among gold stocks?

Analyst reports often center on two key metrics: production growth and net asset value (NAV). Stocks with bullish ratings and attractive target prices typically trade at a slight discount to their NAV while demonstrating robust short-to-medium-term production growth plans. Here are two examples:

Capricorn Metals: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Capricorn Metals, citing its attractive valuation and growth potential. Trading at approximately 0.95x NAV, slightly below the peer average of 1x NAV. The analysts highlight compelling growth projects, including the Karlawinda expansion and the Mt. Gibson greenfield project, both showing promising underground potential. Recent exploration results from the third quarter further bolster optimism, though these are not yet factored into Goldman Sachs’ base case.

Newmont: Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating on Newmont, noting its undervaluation relative to peers. Trading at approximately 5x EBITDA and 0.85x NAV compared to peers at 5-7x EV/EBITDA and 1.05x NAV. Despite this discount, Newmont boasts robust production growth over the next three to five years, driving core EBITDA growth rates of more than 10% annually. The company is expected to transition to a net cash position by mid-2026, enhancing capital flexibility. Goldman Sachs also views Newmont as a defensive large-cap gold stock in Australia, as it has already provided clear 2025 guidance, unlike other Australian peers facing upcoming FY26 guidance updates in July/August.