ChartWatch ASX Scans: CSL bargain or a value trap? Plus technical analysis of BMN, CYL, DRO, KNB, MP1, SYR
Your daily dose of the most interesting uptrends and downtrends on the ASX with technical analysis from an expert.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Interesting uptrends in today's Scans: Ausgold (AUC), Cedar Woods Properties (CWP), Droneshield (DRO), Energy One (EOL), Helia Group (HLI), Megaport (MP1), Syrah Resources (SYR), Waratah Minerals (WTM).
- Interesting downtrends in today's Scans: Amcor (AMC), Avita Medical (AVH), CSL (CSL), EBR Systems (EBR), Propel Funeral Partners (PFP), Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC).
A "value trap" is a stock that appears cheap based on traditional valuation metrics like low price-to-earnings ratio ("PE ratio") or price-to-book ratios etc. but continues to underperform or decline. Investors may be drawn into thinking the stock is undervalued, only to discover that the company faces deeper structural issues — such as declining industry relevance, poor management, or unsustainable earnings.
Is CSL a value trap? It hardly meets the traditional definition of low PE ratio given it's trading at 20.3 times earnings on a on a 12-month forward basis according to Goldman Sachs. Hardly what you'd call bargain basement! Consider though, investors have always paid a premium for CSL's superior growth and quality. To this end, Goldman's also notes that CSL's current PE ratio is a massive 31% discount to its 10-year average.
CSL is the cheapest it's been in 10-years, yet it finds itself lodged in today's Downtrends Scan List — as a Feature Downtrend no less! As popular as CSL is with the big brokers (10 out of 11 of them we've surveyed have a buy-or-equivalent rating), it's short and long term trends are well and truly stuck in the down position.
Indeed, in spite of all of those buy recommendations, CSL has made Feature Downtrend 22 times since 27 September last year when it entered at a closing price of $285.10.
ChartWatch Scans doesn't prognosticate, it's based on a trend following model. So I have no idea where CSL's share price will be in the next 8 months — simply that despite the brokers, and despite its valuation, right now — there's more supply than demand for CSL shares.
And that's all that matters to me...📉
Welcome to my ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans series. Here I present scan lists based on my trend following technical analysis methodology. My goal is to alert you to the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.
Feel free to get your favourite AI to convert the tables below into lists you can upload to your favourite trading platform like TradingView. Then you'll be able to skip from chart to chart and quickly and easily see the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.
Some investors prefer to buy those stocks in strong uptrends, and avoid, sell, or short sell those stocks in strong downtrends – but how you use the lists is really up to you!
Note, many stocks in both lists have appeared there many times before. As long as they keep meeting my criteria – they'll keep appearing. But note, there won't be any notifications when they don't, so you'll have to do your own research on when a particular trend changes!
Uptrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Australian Ethical Investment | AEF | $5.87 | +14.9% | +31.3% |
AMA Group | AMA | $0.080 | +35.6% | +65.7% |
Alterity Therapeutics | ATH | $0.012 | +71.4% | +100.0% |
Ausgold | AUC | $0.680 | +36.0% | +151.9% |
Barton Gold | BGD | $0.670 | +81.1% | +119.7% |
Brickworks | BKW | $27.64 | +18.0% | -0.5% |
Bannerman Energy | BMN | $3.07 | +50.5% | -33.0% |
COG Financial Services | COG | $1.435 | +22.1% | +15.3% |
Cedar Woods Properties | CWP | $6.52 | +27.8% | +39.3% |
Catalyst Metals | CYL | $6.33 | +12.6% | +611.2% |
Droneshield | DRO | $1.420 | +62.3% | +59.6% |
Develop Global | DVP | $3.50 | +58.4% | +46.4% |
Energy One | EOL | $13.40 | +29.8% | +224.5% |
Fidelity Global Emerging Markets Fund ETF | FEMX | $6.51 | +9.4% | +4.5% |
Helia Group | HLI | $5.31 | +29.5% | +54.6% |
Koonenberry Gold | KNB | $0.091 | +102.2% | +403.0% |
Megaport | MP1 | $11.93 | +28.1% | -18.1% |
Omni Bridgeway | OBL | $1.810 | +38.2% | +95.7% |
Pro Medicus | PME | $254.11 | +35.1% | +118.5% |
Peet | PPC | $1.660 | +21.6% | +40.1% |
Smart Parking | SPZ | $0.945 | +29.5% | +93.6% |
Southern Cross Media Group | SXL | $0.750 | +25.0% | -21.1% |
Syrah Resources | SYR | $0.360 | +80.0% | -22.6% |
Universal Store | UNI | $8.17 | +18.2% | +46.2% |
Waratah Minerals | WTM | $0.340 | +112.5% | +183.3% |
Today's Uptrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Uptrends List 🔎📈
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess demand from today's Uptrends List are: Ausgold (ASX: AUC), Cedar Woods Properties (ASX: CWP), Droneshield (ASX: DRO), Energy One (ASX: EOL), Helia Group (ASX: HLI), Megaport (ASX: MP1), Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR), Waratah Minerals (ASX: WTM).
Charts of each below:
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Downtrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4DMEDICAL | 4DX | $0.290 | +11.5% | -47.7% |
Amplitude Energy | AEL | $0.175 | +2.9% | -12.5% |
Amcor | AMC | $14.21 | -3.8% | -8.0% |
Avita Medical | AVH | $2.30 | -10.5% | -22.3% |
CSL | CSL | $235.14 | -4.3% | -16.0% |
Cettire | CTT | $0.455 | -26.0% | -85.8% |
EBR Systems | EBR | $1.065 | -25.5% | +10.6% |
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit | HCW | $0.815 | -7.9% | -30.9% |
Imugene | IMU | $0.022 | -12.0% | -70.7% |
Judo Capital | JDO | $1.375 | -16.7% | -0.4% |
Propel Funeral Partners | PFP | $5.01 | -3.3% | -10.5% |
Skycity Entertainment Group | SKC | $0.955 | -13.2% | -38.8% |
Stanmore Resources | SMR | $1.900 | +8.0% | -42.2% |
Today's Downtrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Downtrends List 🔎📉
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess supply from today's Downtrends List are: Amcor (ASX: AMC), Avita Medical (ASX: AVH), CSL (ASX: CSL), EBR Systems (ASX: EBR), Propel Funeral Partners (ASX: PFP), Skycity Entertainment Group (ASX: SKC).
Charts of each below:
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Important considerations when using the ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans:
1. The future is unknown. Anything can happen to change the trends in the lists above. A stock in a perfect uptrend or downtrend may not remain that way by the close of trading today. 2. These lists are not exhaustive, they are curated by Carl. You will find that certain stocks might not appear in a particular list on consecutive days but might reappear when Carl feels it deserves to return to the list. 3. This is not a recommendation service, merely an aid to help you better understand the workings of Carl’s technical analysis model in a practical way. Carl will not alert you to stocks that have dropped off a list because their trend has changed – it is up to you to apply the criteria to determine why a particular stock might not still be included. 4. This is general, educational information only – always do your own research.
