ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 28th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, January 28. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower as hot CPI locks in Feb rate hike bets

[2:05 pm] ASX 200 set to end a three-day win streak after another destabilising inflation print. The market is currently down 0.22% vs. intraday highs of 0.41%. The likelihood of a 25 bp hike in February was ~60% before the CPI data was released, now up to ~73%. Tech (-2.7%) hit the hardest and ~0.5% away from making a fresh two-year low, consumer facing sectors like Staples (-1.4%), Discretionary (-1.2%) and Telcos (-0.7%) also trending lower. RBA rate hikes seem counterintuitive given the key inflation drivers are housing and energy, though I guess higher rates will dampen demand and inflation elsewhere. While Energy (+1.7%) and Materials (+0.5%) continue to chug higher, these two sectors might have to work even harder to keep the market afloat. Let's see how the dust settles.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Chinese lithium futures fade

[1:45 pm] Quite the intraday pullback for Chinese lithium carbonate futures, with prices up as much as 5.3% (181,180 yuan) but currently down 2.5% (168,620 yuan). A bellwether name like PLS was trading around breakeven, now down 1.7% ($4.87).

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Uranium stocks soar

[12:41 pm] Uranium stocks are on a tear, with most names up 6-12% on Wednesday as uranium futures climbed to US$91/lb, the highest in almost two years.

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Metals X reports near-record quarterly tin output

[12:31 pm] MLX's 50% owned Renison mine produced 3,319t of tin-in-concentrate in Q4 2025, just 10 tonnes below the all-time quarterly record.

• Total tin production up 46% quarter-on-quarter 3,319t

  • Metals X share (50%) is 1,660t

• December monthly production 1,318t, highest on record

• C1 cash costs down 28% quarter-on-quarter to A$16,598/t Sn

• Imputed EBITDA more than doubled quarter-on-quarter to A$112.5m

• Closing cash of $293.6m

The imputed tin price was A$58,086 a tonne, whereas tin prices are currently trading at around US$55,000 a tonne (A$78,700).

The quarterly was released this afternoon at 12:20 pm AEDT.

Company page: Metals X (MLX)

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Aussie inflation accelerates

[12:05 pm] Australian CPI data was released at 11:30 am AEDT, with inflation up 3.8% year-on-year in December, accelerating from 3.4% in the previous month. A few key takeaways from the ABS report:

• "The largest contributor to annual inflation in December was Housing, up 5.5%. This was followed by Food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.4%, and Recreation and culture, which rose 4.4%."

• Trimmed mean CPI was up 3.3% year-on-year in December, up from 3.2% in November

• Annual Goods inflation was 3.4% in the 12 months to December, up from 3.3% to November. The main contributor was Electricity, which rose 21.5% in the 12 months to December.

The Aussie 10-year yield has surprisingly eased from intraday highs of 4.88%, and currently sitting at 4.81%.

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Chinese lithium futures open higher

[12:02 pm] Chinese lithium carbonate futures have opened 4.8% higher to 181,280 yuan a tonne. Prices are up almost 10% in the past week, but still ~4% off the late-Jan high of 189,440 yuan.

A flattish day so far for most lithium names, with Pilbara (-0.10%), Liontown (+0.4%) and MinRes (+1.0%).

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Analysts' take on Karoon Energy

[11:28 am] Karoon reported a stronger-than-expected full-year production result, driven by higher forecast sales volumes from Bauna and solid output from Who Dat. However, 2026 guidance fell short due to downtime at Bauna. Optimism was also hosed down by a potential pause in the ongoing buyback program due to weaker oil prices. Karoon shares rallied as much as 6.1% on Tuesday, but finished the session up just 0.3%.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, target $2.05. Strong finish to 2025 exceeded expectations, but Baúna campaign execution is a key risk, with H2 unit cost improvement possible and buyback potentially paused amid tighter free cash flow.

• Macquarie downgraded to Underperform, target lowered to $1.50 from $1.65. 2026 flagged as a heavy investment and transition year, Neon farm down delayed by weak oil prices, and macro headwinds plus leadership reset weigh on near-term performance.

• JPMorgan lowered target to $2.00 from $2.15, maintains Overweight. H2 expected operationally stronger than H1, capital deployment could adjust if oil stays weak, Neon uncertainty rising, but shares seen as undervalued despite near-term risks.

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St Barbara rallies on mining lease extension

[11:22 pm] St Barbara rallied as much as 10.1% to $0.81 after announcing its Simberi Gold Project mining lease was formally extended until 2038. The licence was due to expire in 2028. The announcement was released shortly after market open, with the stock opening at 10:25 am AEDT.

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:30 am] Uranium, gold and copper stocks top the leaderboard as the resource sector continues to run hot, meanwhile Life360 continues to give back its recent gains and AUB dips after completing a $400 million placement.

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ASX 200 higher, resource stocks extend gains

[10:25 am] ASX 200 currently up 0.35%, hovering intraday highs and within 1.55% of its 21-Oct-25 record high. Resources pretty much doing all the heavy lifting, with notable gains from BHP (+2.0%), Rio Tinto (+1.4%), MinRes (+1.2%), Fortescue (+0.6%) and Woodside (+2.2%).

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Bank of Queensland announces CEO transition

[10:12 am] Bank of Queensland CEO Patrick Allaway to retire on 28-Feb after a six year tenure.

Rod Finch, Chief Transformation and Operations Officer, will succeed him as CEO and Managing Director from 1 March.

Company page: Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

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ASX 1H26 underlying NPAT beats estimates, raises FY expense guidance

[9:55 am] ASX delivered stronger-than-expected H1 underlying NPAT and operating revenue, while raising FY26 expense guidance to reflect higher costs.

• 1H26 underlying NPAT up 3.9% to $263.6m vs $253.1m ests (4% beat)

• Operating revenue up 11.2% to $602.8m vs $583.3m ests (3% beat)

• Total expenses (excl. ASIC inquiry costs) up 12.1% to $247.0m

• Total expenses (incl. ASIC inquiry costs) up 20.0% year-on-year to $264.3m

FY26 expense guidance now forecast to be sharply higher vs. prior guidance (which was reaffirmed three months ago at the 23-Oct-25 AGM).

• Total expenses (excl. ASIC costs) expected to increase 13–15% year-on-year vs. prior +8–11%

• Total expenses (incl. ASIC costs) to rise 20–23% year-on-year vs. prior 14–19%

Very, very mixed announcement, 1H26 earnings were solid (e.g. UBS was below consensus at $246.6m NPAT) though costs were slightly higher than expected (UBSe was $233.8m, unclear if excl or incl ASIC inquiry costs). The FY26 expense guidance is fairly ugly and materially higher than the prior guidance, so overall, this does lean towards a net negative result.

Company page: ASX (ASX)

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Woodside Q4 beats production and revenue estimates, Scarborough on track

[9:43 am] Woodside delivered higher-than-expected Q4 production and revenue, while major projects like Scarborough and Trion remain on schedule, supporting FY26 growth.

• Q4 production 48.9MMboe vs. 46.7MMboe ests (5% beat)

• Quarterly production fell 4% quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal weather and lower east-coast demand

• Q4 sales volume 52.4MMboe vs. 49.7MMboe ests (5% beat)

• Q4 revenue $3.04bn vs $2.90bn ests (5% beat)

• FY25 production 198.8MMboe vs. guidance 192–197MMboe (2.2% beat at the midpoint)

• FY25 unit production cost ~$7.8/boe vs. guidance $7.6–8.1/boe (0.6% below midpoint)

In terms of project developments:

• Scarborough Energy Project 94% complete, on budget and on track for first LNG in Q4 2026

• Beaumont Ammonia Project achieved first production

• Trion Project 50% complete targeting first oil 2028

• Louisiana LNG Project 22% complete targeting first LNG 2029

FY26 guidance noted production of 172–186MMboe and $4.0–4.5 billion capex vs. Macquarie ests of 178.4MMboe and $5.9 billion capex.

Company page: Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

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Greatland Resources ASIC above ests

[9:32 am] No big surprises from Greatland since the company already reported copper and gold production figures on 7-Jan (where GGP rallied 5.5%). However, today's Q2 update flagged some higher-than-expected costs and guidance tweaks.

• Q2 AISC A$2,196/oz vs A$2,103/oz ests (4% above)

• Operating cash flow of A$406m

• FY26 guidance: gold production expected toward upper end of 260–310koz, AISC expected toward lower end of A$2,400–2,800/oz

Company page: Greatland Resources (GGP)

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Coronado Global Q4 production soft, strong cost control supports FY26 outlook

[9:28 am] Coronado delivered solid operational performance with lower-than-expected volumes but strong cost management and expansion project progress supporting future cash generation.

• Q4 ROM production 6.9Mt vs 7.2Mt ests (4% miss)

• Saleable production 4.3Mt vs 4.5Mt ests (4% miss)

• Sales volume 4.4Mt vs 4.7Mt ests (6% miss)

• Revenue $550.5m vs $561.8m ests (2% miss)

• Mining costs $97.0/t vs $92.1/t ests (5% above)

Operational highlights include:

• Buchanan expansion and Mammoth Underground projects hit expected run rates, with Buchanan generating $20m earnings in December

• Curragh saleable production up 36.6% H2 vs H1, averaging 1Mt per month, Q4 sales volumes highest since Q3 FY21, up 11% quarter-on-quarter and 19% half-on-half

• Achieved $307m (13%) operating cost reduction and ~$166m mining cost reduction YoY

• Liquidity boosted by >$400m in 2025, with further $200–250m support expected in 2026

• Management commentary: Strong production leverage and lower cost base position Coronado to benefit from rising coal prices, supporting earnings, cash flow, shareholder returns, and balance sheet de-leveraging

Company page: Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

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West African Resources delivers full-year guidance, strong cash flow and record production

[9:25 am] WAF achieved its 2025 production targets for a fifth consecutive year, generating robust cash flow and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

• Q4 gold production of 112,019oz at AISC US$1,561/oz

• Operating cash flow of $389m, which is massive vs. the company's market cap of $4.2bn (approx 9.1% in cash flows for a quarter)

• Full-year 2025 production at 300,383oz, meeting guidance of 290,000–360,000oz

• Next quarter objectives include 2026 production guidance, M5 South Underground drilling results, updated 10-year production plan, and capital management strategy

WAF is absolutely printing cash, with plenty of earnings upside given the average Q4 sales price of US$4,058/oz vs. over US$5,000 now. Despite the robust earnings profile, the market will likely continue to discount WAF given:

• Both Sanbrado and Kiaka projects are located in Burkina Faso

• The company remains in discussions with the Burkina Faso government following their request for additional equity interest in Kiaka

Company page: West African Resources (WAF)

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Meeka Metals posts strong Q2 gold growth and cash flow

[9:16 am] Gold output surged in Q2 as plant throughput and recovery improved, driving record cash flow and strengthening the balance sheet.

• Gold production up 28% to 9,174oz vs prior quarter, toward the upper end of 7,000-10,000oz ramp-up plan

• AISC $2,365/oz, metallurgical recovery averaged 97%, in line with expectations

• Operating cash flow of $23.9m, up 91% vs $12.5m in prior quarter

• Net mine cash flow of $4.1m vs -$9.2m in prior quarter

• Cash and gold balance of $67.4m vs $59.3m at 30 September 2025

• No debt except mining equipment finance, company remains fully unhedged

Company page: Meeka Metals (MEK)

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Elevra Lithium beats Q2 pricing but lowers FY guidance

[9:13 am] Elevra delivered stronger realised prices and sales growth in Q2, but revised full-year production and cost guidance downward.

• Q2 realised price $998/dmt vs $987/dmt ests (1% beat)

• NAL ore mined up 15% to 389,801 wmt vs 338,341 wmt in prior quarter

• Concentrate sold up 154% to 66,016 dmt vs 25,975 dmt in prior quarter

• Revenue up 230% to $66m vs $20m in prior quarter

• Cash balance $81m

• FY26 guidance downgraded:

  • Production down 8% to 185,000 dmt at midpoint vs prior 202,500 dmt

  • Sales down 8% to 180,000 dmt at midpoint vs prior 202,500 dmt

  • Unit operating costs up 12% to $870/dmt at midpoint vs prior $798/dmt

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

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Trump threatens 25% tariffs on South Korea amid legislative delays

[9:09 am] President Trump has warned of higher tariffs on South Korean imports as Seoul stalls on ratifying last year’s trade deal, sparking market volatility but limited structural risk.

• Trump threatened to raise tariffs from 15% to 25% on autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals and other goods, citing South Korea’s slow legislative progress on implementing the trade deal

• Hyundai shares fell as much as 6.1% on the news, though losses later pared amid expectations the threat may not be fully enforced

• South Korea’s special law on strategic US investment, introduced in November, remains under deliberation, with parliament prioritising careful review over fast-tracking

• The US is South Korea’s second-largest export market, with $122.9bn shipped in 2025, the country ran a $66bn trade surplus with the US, its eighth-largest bilateral gap

Source: Bloomberg

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Silver surge accelerates, Citi flags $150/oz upside risk

[9:05 am] Silver’s rally has intensified sharply, with Citi warning prices could push materially higher in the near term despite growing concerns around volatility and sustainability.

• Citi forecasts spot silver to reach a record $150/oz within three months, driven by strong buying momentum in China and the need for higher prices to entice existing holders to sell

• Silver surged nearly 50% in January alone and hit a fresh record of $117.71, including a 14% intraday jump, the largest since the GFC

• Citi describes silver as “gold on steroids”, noting upside could extend to ~$170/oz if the gold-silver ratio reverts to the 2011 low of 32:1

• The rally has persisted despite bearish signals such as ETF outflows, speculative futures selling and declining US warehouse inventories

• Some analysts caution the speed of the move suggests late-cycle dynamics, with history implying the rally may be closer to its peak than its beginning

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Retail investors cement lasting influence five years after GameStop

[9:04 am] Retail trading has evolved from a one-off meme stock phenomenon into a durable market force, reshaping equity flows, risk management and market structure.

• Retail participation now accounts for nearly 20% of daily US equity volumes on average, up from low single digits pre-Covid, and can spike to ~40% on high-volume days and up to 50% in options

• JPMorgan data shows retail inflows surged nearly 60% in 2025 and sit around 17% above the 2021 meme-stock peak, underscoring persistent and growing capital deployment

• Hedge funds have adapted by reducing short exposure and closely tracking retail sentiment, acknowledging the risk of coordinated retail buying in crowded trades

• Retail dip-buying has helped stabilise markets during major drawdowns, including Covid and tariff-driven sell-offs, while recent focus has shifted to energy stocks, gold and silver

Source: CNBC

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Aussie hits a seven handle: Which sectors and stocks tend to benefit?

[9:03 am] The Australian dollar has hit 70 cents for the first time since February 2023.

Australian dollar chart (Source: TradingView)

An old Citi note (2023) found that "stocks with the most reliable betas to AUD:USD tend to be cyclicals (positive) or defensives (negative)."

The table below highlights sectors with positive betas and statistically significant T-stats, ranked from best to worst based on projected performance.

Beta measures a sector’s volatility relative to the Australian dollar. A beta of one or higher indicates more aggressive behaviour, meaning price movements are more volatile than the Aussie.

The T-stat measures the statistical significance of this relationship. A higher T-stat suggests the link between movements in the Australian dollar and cyclical sectors is unlikely to be due to chance, while a lower T-stat implies the relationship may reflect random variation or other factors.

Source: Citi Research (2023)

In terms of stocks, Citi found that cyclical sectors historically outperform in a rising Aussie environment.

Source: Citi Research (2023)

Meanwhile, defensives tend to underperform.

Source: Citi Research (2023)

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Aussie dollar rallies as yield advantage drives bullish FX calls

[8:53 am] The Australian dollar is pushing toward multi-year highs as rising yield differentials, RBA hike expectations and waning US dollar confidence underpin strong investor demand.

• AUD has risen ~4% in 2026, placing it among the top three G10 performers

• Australian bonds offer the highest yields in the developed world, with 10-year yields at a 26-month high and the US-Australia yield spread the widest in three years

• Money markets now price a 60% chance of an RBA rate hike in February, up sharply after a stronger-than-expected December jobs report

Source: Bloomberg

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US consumer confidence slumps to decade low

[8:51 am] US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in January, signalling rising economic anxiety as labour market perceptions weaken and inflation concerns persist.

• Headline confidence fell to 84.5 vs. 91.1 consensus and 94.2 in December, marking the weakest reading since May 2014 and below pandemic-era lows

• Labour market sentiment softened, with jobs seen as plentiful falling to 23.9% from 27.5%, while jobs seen as hard to get rose to 20.8%, narrowing the labour market differential to its weakest since March 2021

• Present Situations Index dropped 9.9 points to 113.7, while the Expectations Index fell 9.5 points to 65.1, highlighting a sharp hit to forward-looking sentiment

• Inflation concerns remain elevated, with average 12-month inflation expectations rising, though the median continued to edge lower

• Consumers skew increasingly pessimistic, citing inflation, tariffs and trade, labour market conditions and politics, alongside greater caution toward big-ticket purchases over the next six months

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US shutdown risk spikes as DHS funding deadlock persists

[8:49 am] A partial US government shutdown remains highly likely as Democrats and Republicans remain entrenched over DHS funding, with markets pricing in a high probability of disruption.

• Senate Democrats are threatening to filibuster a six-bill spending package that includes US$64.4bn for the Department of Homeland Security, following renewed political pressure after an ICE-related shooting in Minneapolis

• No clear path to resolution, with Democrats pushing to strip DHS funding while Republicans resist changes that would force a House re-vote and delay passage

• Republicans are pressing ahead with a potential vote on the full package this week, while floating executive actions or standalone immigration legislation that has yet to win Democratic support

• White House concern that standalone DHS funding would fail in the House may be driving recent de-escalatory moves, including outreach to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and changes to ICE leadership

• Shutdown impacts would be broad, affecting DHS agencies such as FEMA and TSA alongside Defense, Labour, Transportation and HUD

• Prediction markets signalling elevated likelihood of a shutdown, with 76% on Kalshi and 92% on Polymarket

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Avalanche of mining quarterlies

[8:43 am] At least a dozen miners and explorers have reported quarterlies this morning, including AZY, BCI, CRN, DVP, ELV, GGP, GGR, MEK, TLG, WA1, WAF. I'll have a flick through these announcements once we've had a look at some overnight headlines/catalysts.

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Good morning!

[8:38 am] ASX 200 futures are up 48 pts (+0.53%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with the S&P 500 at all-time highs and the Nasdaq within 0.5% record highs

• Defensives and small caps underperformed following a recent hot streak

• US Dollar Index tumbled 1.2% to the lowest since February 2022, the Aussie Dollar is now trading with a seven handle for the first time since 2023

• Gold and silver prices continued to surge, with gold nearing US$5,200 while silver recouped some of yesterday's intraday fade and back at US$112

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.