ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 28th July
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to take a breather after Monday's 1.4% rally. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 28. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
Markets rally on dovish Bullock speech
[1:59 pm] That's a wrap. The Aussie 2-year yield dipped 6 bps to 4.61% after the governor's speech. A sizeable pullback that sent local stock sharply higher, though the 2-year remains relatively rangebound (trading between 4.8% and 4.4% in recent months).
The ASX 200 is currently up 0.46% despite trading around (0.10%) lower prior to the Bullock speech.
ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)
Consumer-facing and rate-sensitive sectors like Discretionary (+2.2%), Real Estate (+1.6%), Telcos (+1.5%), Healthcare (+1.4%), Staple (+1.3%) and Financials (+1.0%) have all caught a bid. While Materials (-1.5%) is the only standout sector that's trading lower, but off worst levels.
RBA governor flags further tightening risk as inflation runs above target
[1:49 pm] Governor Bullock used an Anika Foundation speech to warn inflation is above target and back rising, with the door open to more rate hikes if demand does not ease.
Headline inflation was 4% in May, well above the 2-3% target, with underlying inflation still too high and rising even before recent oil price gains
Board prepared to act as required, including raising the cash rate further if needed, having already tightened earlier this year
Some further easing in demand likely required to return inflation to target, with the key question whether earlier tightening is sufficient
Housing market eased more than expected, with price falls concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, though negative equity affects less than 1% of borrowers
Labour market loosened a bit more than expected, with unemployment rising, though job ads remained resilient and some paused hiring has resumed
Business investment stronger than expected, largely driven by data centre spending, though weak productivity growth remains a fundamental constraint
Origin says data breach hit about 900,000 current and former customers
[1:07 pm] The energy retailer's initial review found the information of roughly 900,000 customers was accessed in a security incident now under criminal investigation.
Information of approximately 900,000 current and former customers believed accessed, per the initial phase of Origin's review
CEO Frank Calabria apologised, with contact underway to affected customers and extended support hours plus a dedicated line
Origin had reviewed a potential threat since early July but initially assessed it as not credible, before new information on 22 July indicated an incident may have occurred
Working with cyber and forensic specialists to contain the incident and secure systems, alongside the ACSC, National Office of Cyber Security and AFP
Company warned of a heightened risk of scams and impersonation, urging customers to stay vigilant
Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)
Lithium stocks hit four-month lows
[1:05 pm] Lithium stocks are trading broadly lower as Chinese lithium futures fell 2.3% to 142,700 yuan a tonne on Tuesday. Prices are trading fractionally higher over the past week but down 32% since the recent high of 209,800 yuan in early May.
The bellwether PLS Group is down 4.4% to $4.07, the lowest since 23 March and now down 39.8% from its 1 June high of $6.74.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DLI | Delta Lithium | -5.9% | $0.16 | 0.0% | -27.3% |
CXO | Core Lithium | -5.1% | $0.24 | 0.8% | -12.0% |
PAT | Patriot Resources | -4.5% | $0.06 | -7.2% | 18.5% |
PMT | Pmet Resources | -4.4% | $0.43 | 0.0% | -27.7% |
PLS | PLS Group | -4.4% | $4.07 | -1.8% | -3.2% |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | -3.6% | $2.55 | -5.0% | -42.3% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | -2.9% | $53.13 | -2.1% | -2.3% |
LTR | Liontown | -2.4% | $1.20 | -5.9% | -23.9% |
EUR | European Lithium | 0.7% | $0.28 | 2.6% | 78.7% |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | 1.0% | $0.52 | 9.6% | -18.3% |
IGO | IGO | 1.6% | $6.86 | 3.2% | -16.2% |
A sea of red for miners
[12:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials sector is down 2.2%, giving back almost the entirety of yesterday's 2.4% gain. The weakness is broad based, spanning copper, iron ore, gold, rare earths, lithium and more.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHP | BHP Group | -2.3% | $58.69 | 2.4% | 28.9% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | -2.8% | $159.03 | 1.4% | 8.3% |
FMG | Fortescue | -1.4% | $18.55 | -0.5% | -15.7% |
NST | Northern Star Resources | -2.0% | $19.96 | 4.3% | -18.7% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -2.9% | $11.18 | 7.5% | -11.1% |
S32 | South32 | -0.7% | $4.47 | 5.9% | 25.9% |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | -1.3% | $14.68 | -4.8% | 18.3% |
BSL | Bluescope Steel | -1.6% | $32.25 | 0.7% | 34.0% |
PLS | PLS Group | -3.5% | $4.10 | -1.0% | -2.4% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | -2.6% | $53.29 | -1.8% | -2.0% |
SFR | Sandfire Resources | -4.2% | $18.44 | 3.3% | 2.6% |
Asian chip stocks tumble as AI fatigue and China competition bite
[11:21 am] Korean and Japanese semiconductor shares plunged, with Korea's Kospi triggering a circuit breaker, as Nvidia credit fears and Chinese competition hit sentiment.
Kospi currently down 8.0%, triggering a 20-minute trading suspension, its lowest since April
SK Hynix down 10.7%, now down 45% since 25-Jun record high
Selloff tied to Nvidia's $750bn AI deals stoking fears of artificially inflated demand and rising corporate debt as the buildout progresses
The Information reported a Chinese state-backed firm has begun mass producing immersion DUV lithography machines, threatening Japanese equipment makers' long-held edge
CXMT's blockbuster Shanghai debut this week added to competition worries, having raised funds to expand capacity
Moves come ahead of key capex updates from Meta and Amazon, with analysts flagging hesitation to buy the dip
Source: Bloomberg
Analysts' take on Capricorn Metals
[11:19 am] Capricorn Metals released an updated Mt Gibson pre-feasibility study alongside a new "Range 500" growth aspiration on Monday, outlining a pathway to materially expand group production over the next five years, driven by a substantially larger underground contribution that extended mine life and lifted near-term production expectations. The stock surged 15% on the day.
JPMorgan retained Overweight, raised target from $15.60 to $18.30, viewing the group as now leading mid-cap gold growth peers with underground potential exceeding prior assumptions, though flagging execution risk from the first underground operation.
Goldman Sachs retained Neutral, raised target from $16.20 to $17.10, maintaining a cautious stance despite the improved production trajectory and regarding valuation as already reflecting the favourable outlook.
UBS retained Buy, target maintained at $17.00, viewing the update as positive with skew toward more production, longer mine life from underground extensions and further exploration upside, with the capex increase seen as manageable.
Stocks on the move: Web Travel jumps on buy-back, DroneShield slides on soft guidance
[11:14 am] Web Travel Group is trending higher intraday after its trading update outlined above consensus margins and a $90 million buyback, while Droneshield gapped down on a softer-than-expected guidance.
Web Travel Group (+12.1%): $90m buy-back and 1H27 EBITDA guidance of $80-86m, with WebBeds revenue seen up 11-15% and a third straight half of TTV margin gains
Iluka Resources (+5.3%): Q2 total Z/R/SR production, sales and mineral sands revenue all beat ests, with zircon pricing set to step up US$215/t in Q3
Viva Energy (+3.6%): H1 EBITDA (RC) guidance of $770-780m beat ests by 9% at the midpoint as Geelong refining margins surged to US$21.1/bbl
IGO (+2.6%): Q4 Greenbushes production of 387kt beat ests, with realised spodumene pricing jumping to US$2,286/t and net cash building to $386.5m
Whitehaven Coal (-1.0%): FY26 production and sales finished at the top end of guidance, though Q4 saleable coal missed ests on weak Narrabri output
DroneShield (-8.1%): FY26 revenue guidance of $250-270m landed 21% below ests at the midpoint despite a $23.2m European contract package
Analysts' take on Evolution Mining
[11:07 am] Evolution Mining agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources on Monday via a scrip based scheme of arrangement, gaining the Greater Duchess copper and gold project in Queensland, which sits near its Ernest Henry operation and offers scope to lift copper output through existing infrastructure and mill utilisation.
Macquarie retained Neutral, target maintained at $11.50, noting the scheme implied a meaningful premium and leveraged proximity to existing infrastructure, but awaiting the feasibility study for scope, costings and timeline.
RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, target maintained at $11.50, citing capital intensity in line with industry averages, strong returns and rapid payback, with toll treating termination set to enhance project economics.
Morgan Stanley cautious on retail into July trading updates as housing bites
[10:46 am] The broker flags weak consumer sentiment from housing, rates and fuel, with margin and top-line divergence driving stock preferences ahead of reporting season.
Most preferred SIG, COL, BGA and LNW on margin expansion and top-line growth
Least preferred WES, DMP, EDV and JBH on industry headwinds and high multiples
Housing policy changes to negative gearing and CGT, alongside early price weakness and low clearance rates, lift risks for WES, JBH and HVN, with TGG, e&s and HVN most housing-sensitive
Fuel excise relief through July could support near-term discretionary spending, though channel checks suggest recent strength has been largely promo-driven
June Westpac and CBA card data stayed soft, including weak household goods, though NAB's May reading was firmer, with SUL, AX1 and MYR/PMV most exposed to a sharper slowdown
Supermarkets best placed to pass on mid-single-digit pricing in the September quarter, with COL preferred over WOW and GYG favoured on volume leverage, while QSRs face a value-conscious consumer
Strategy execution in focus at EDV, TWE, DMP under its new CEO, WOW's Customer Offer Reset and IDP's self-help agenda
Active managers lift healthcare exposure, says Morgan Stanley
[10:44 am] Fund managers added to healthcare and select financials while cutting materials, with CSL a top addition and Santos the largest single-stock reduction.
Healthcare overweight rose 46bps to an average 277bps, with CSL the top stock-level addition in active weight
Materials saw the largest sector cut, down 36bps to a -207bp average, with Santos the biggest single-stock reduction
Financials remains by far the largest sector underweight at -717bps, though underweights in CBA, WBC and NAB were reduced
Overweight positions in QBE, ORI and WOW were added to during the month
MQG and RIO remain large overweights but were trimmed slightly
ASX 200 slips as banks and miners fall
[10:38 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.21% in early trade amid more volatility for miners and a pullback for banks and energy stocks. The big four banks, iron ore majors and Woodside are all trading slightly lower this morning, with only consumer-facing names like Wesfarmers, CSL, Telstra and Woolworths eking out some gains.
S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
BHP | BHP | -1.20% | $59.38 |
CBA | Commonwealth Bank | -0.33% | $175.49 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | -2.11% | $160.13 |
WBC | Westpac | -0.36% | $37.55 |
NAB | National Australia Bank | -0.11% | $40.90 |
ANZ | ANZ Group | -0.24% | $36.80 |
WES | Wesfarmers | 1.06% | $88.33 |
MQG | Macquarie Group | -1.50% | $254.06 |
WDS | Woodside Energy Group | -0.03% | $31.41 |
GMG | Goodman Group | -0.51% | $29.37 |
Droneshield sinks 8% in early trade
[10:30 am] Droneshield is down 8.4% to $1.90 after guiding to weaker-than-expected first half and full-year revenue. The stock is now down 43% year-to-date and down 17% in the past month.
H1 revenue guidance of $125.8m vs $127.8m ests (2% below)
FY26 revenue guidance of $250-270m vs $328.2m ests (21% below at midpoint)
H1 gross margin of 60%, down from 65% a year ago, with a blended FY26 target of around 65%
Company page: DroneShield (DRO)
Top ASX 200 gainers and losers
[10:26 am] Iluka and Viva Energy trading higher on upbeat quarterlies/trading updates, while miners spanning gold, lithium, copper and aluminium open broadly lower.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
ILU | Iluka Resources | 4.89% | $6.12 |
360 | Life360 | 4.44% | $25.41 |
WTC | Wisetech Global | 4.05% | $33.42 |
VEA | Viva Energy | 3.28% | $2.52 |
XYZ | Block | 3.24% | $115.16 |
COH | Cochlear | 3.06% | $118.01 |
ALQ | ALS | 2.73% | $21.84 |
ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | 2.63% | $63.63 |
SUL | Super Retail Group | 2.59% | $13.09 |
TNE | Technology One | 2.41% | $29.37 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
DRO | Droneshield | -7.45% | $1.93 |
SLX | Silex Systems | -4.48% | $4.69 |
PNR | Pantoro Gold | -3.76% | $2.05 |
KCN | Kingsgate Consolidated | -3.65% | $4.10 |
MSB | Mesoblast | -3.50% | $2.07 |
ELV | Elevra Lithium | -3.41% | $7.64 |
SFR | Sandfire Resources | -3.40% | $18.59 |
ALK | Alkane Resources | -3.27% | $1.33 |
AAI | Alcoa Corporation | -3.20% | $62.56 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | -3.09% | $53.01 |
Viva Energy guides first half EBITDA well above expectations
[9:57 am] The fuel supplier flagged a big earnings beat as Middle East supply disruption drove Geelong refining margins sharply higher, with net debt falling.
1H26 group EBITDA (RC) of $770-780m vs $708m ests (9% beat at midpoint), up from $305m in 1H25
Geelong Refining Margin of US$21.1/bbl, up from $8.2/bbl a year ago, on a regional shortage of oil supply and refining capacity
E&I EBITDA (RC) of ~$353m, partly offset by an April Alkylation unit fire, with production now back above 90% of capacity
Net debt of ~$1.7bn at 30 June, down from $2.1bn at 31 December, on strong earnings-to-cash conversion
Total group sales volumes of 8,490ML vs 8,367ML a year ago, with C&M fuel volumes up 2.4% and C&I volumes up 1.0%
Company page: Viva Energy Group (VEA)
Whitehaven flags firmer coal prices on China demand and energy security
[9:54 am] Both met and thermal coal benchmarks strengthened late in the quarter, supported by Chinese steel demand and Middle East-driven energy security concerns. Here are the key takeaways from the company's current and near-term outlook for coal markets:
PLV HCC Index strengthened late in the quarter on short-term Chinese steel mill demand amid supply concerns after the Shanxi mine accident, plus improved steel output in Japan and Taiwan
Met coal support partly offset by India's monsoon season and favourable Bowen Basin mining conditions supplying near-term demand
gC NEWC thermal index strengthened on heightened energy security concerns from Middle East tensions, with utilities prioritising reliable supply
Thermal prices further supported by uncertainty around Indonesian production and exports after government intervention to protect domestic supply, lifting demand for lower-quality coal
Longer-term met coal prices seen rising on a structural production shortfall, Australian HCC depletion and growing Indian seaborne demand
High CV thermal coal price support expected from underinvestment, existing supply depletion and ongoing energy security focus in developing economies
Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
Whitehaven finishes FY26 at top end of guidance despite soft Q4
[9:52 am] The coal miner delivered full-year production and sales at the top of guidance, though quarterly saleable coal and Narrabri output came in below ests.
Q4 managed ROM coal production of 10.7Mt vs 10.84Mt ests (in line), up 13% on the March quarter
Q4 saleable coal production of 8.06Mt vs 8.51Mt ests (5% miss), with Narrabri at 0.63Mt vs 1.17Mt ests (46% miss)
Q4 total managed coal sales of 8.30Mt vs 8.22Mt ests (1% beat)
FY26 managed ROM production of 40.3Mt and coal sales of 32.7Mt, both at the top end of guidance ranges
FY26 unit cost of ~$132/t at the low end of $130/t to $145/t guidance, with ~$350m capex also favourable and $60m to $80m of annualised cost savings delivered
Net debt of $1.3bn at 30 June, up from $0.6bn at 31 March, after the second US$500m deferred BMA acquisition payment
Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
IGO tops Q4 Greenbushes and nickel production expectations
[9:51 am] The lithium and nickel miner beat on Greenbushes production and sales, with realised spodumene pricing sharply higher and net cash building despite a CGP3 fire.
Greenbushes spodumene production of 387kt vs 363kt ests (7% beat), up from 351kt in Q3, with CGP3 contributing 71kt before a June fire halted it for about seven weeks
Greenbushes realised price of US$2,286/t vs US$2,229/t ests (3% beat), up sharply from US$1,668/t in Q3, driving an 80% EBITDA margin
Sales of $141.4m, though group underlying EBITDA of $117.6m was broadly flat on Q3's $118.9M
Total nickel production of 3.88kt vs 3.24kt ests (20% beat), with copper of 1.69kt vs 1.65kt ests (2% beat), offset by Kwinana at 0.90kt vs 2.10kt ests on a planned shutdown
Net cash increased to $386.5m at 30 June, with underlying free cash flow of $69.5m, up from $35.8m in Q3
FY27 Greenbushes guidance of 1,550kt to 1,750kt at cash costs of $380/t to $440/t, with Nova to be divested to Global Lithium post quarter end
Company page: IGO (IGO)
Web Travel guides to EBITDA growth and unveils $90m buy-back
[9:31 am] The online travel group flagged first-half earnings around consensus and a buy-back, with the board arguing the shares undervalue its trading and outlook.
1H27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $80-86m vs $82.7m ests (midpoint in line), despite currency headwinds of about 9%
On-market buy-back of up to $90m, funded from existing cash, running 12 August 2026 to 28 July 2027
WebBeds 1H27 revenue expected up 11-15% on 1H26 in EUR functional currency
WebBeds TTV margin seen at circa 6.7%, up from 6.5% in 1H26, a third straight half of margin gains
Cash conversion greater than 100% for 1H27, with strong liquidity after April's convertible note redemption
Board views the current share price as not reflecting trading performance, cash generation and the medium-term earnings outlook
A fairly orderly guidance update, with the WebBeds TTV margin of ~6.7% is tracking well-ahead of Macquarie (May-26) forecasts of 6.5%. WEB shares have tumbled 41.% year-to-date, so a mix of better-than-expected margins and a chunky buyback ($90m vs. $1.0bn market cap) should give it something to work with this morning.
Company page: Web Travel Group (WEB)
Duratec wins ~$70m of contracts across energy, marine and mining
[9:19 am] The engineering and remediation contractor secured four awards, headlined by a construction management role at Orica's Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub.
Four contract awards worth a combined ~$70m across the Energy, Marine and Mining & Industrial sectors
Construction management contract at Orica's Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, marking a step into future energy and fuel infrastructure
ECI services for Perth Airport's Jet Fuel Expansion Program via the 50:50 West Coast Civil JV, running about six months with potential downstream work
Wharf remediation for Fremantle Ports at the Kwinana Bulk Jetty, a roughly 30-month scope of cathodic protection and concrete repairs
Structural integrity remediation for Rio Tinto at its Gove bauxite export facilities under a new three-year MCSA
Company page: Duratec (DUR)
Genesis prints record FY26 output but Q4 costs miss on higher AISC
[9:14 am] The gold miner topped Q4 sales ests and delivered record annual production, though quarterly costs came in above consensus, with FY27 growth and a Vault merger ahead.
Q4 gold production of 70.8koz at AISC of $2,797/oz vs $2,646/oz ests (6% higher costs)
Q4 gold sales of 77.8koz vs 70.5koz ests (10% beat), generating revenue of $480.4m
Q4 realised price of A$6,175/oz vs A$6,320/oz ests (2% miss)
Record FY26 production of 285,402oz at AISC of $2,670/oz, within guidance, with FY26 unaudited underlying NPAT of $540-550m
Net cash of $320.1m at 30 June, with cash of $520.1m against $200m bank debt, after funding the $447m Magnetic acquisition
FY27 stand-alone guidance of 270-300koz at AISC of A$2,750-3,050/oz vs. Macquarie's ests (May-26) of 288koz at A$2,643/oz (1% miss for production at 10% higher than expected costs)
Company page: Genesis Minerals (GMD)
Iluka beats on production and sales as zircon volumes surge
[9:11 am] The mineral sands producer topped Q2 production and sales ests, with a step-up in zircon shipments and firmer realised prices, though Balranald guidance was trimmed.
Total Z/R/SR production of 58.0kt vs 53.6kt ests (8% beat), with synthetic rutile kilns idle and Narngulu processing Jacinth-Ambrosia concentrate
Total Z/R/SR sales of 157.4kt vs 99.5kt ests (58% beat), materially higher than Q1 on stronger zircon volumes
Mineral sands revenue of $286m (unclear if comparable to $179.2m ests, 60% beat)
Zircon production of 25.7kt vs 35.8kt ests (28% miss), offset by ZIC of 21.7kt vs 12.0kt ests (81% beat) as the mix shifted toward concentrate
Q2 realised zircon sand price of US$1,546/t, up US$55/t on Q1, with the Q3 contracted price set to rise a further US$215/t
FY26 zircon production still in line with ~180kt guidance, though now a more even split between sand and ZIC, with Balranald final product volumes now lower than February guidance
Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)
Elevra sets production records as legacy pricing contract rolls off
[9:08 am] The lithium miner posted its second-best spodumene quarter and locked in a growth financing package, though realised prices fell sharply as a legacy contract closed out.
Spodumene concentrate production up 15% QoQ to 54,479dmt at 5.0% grade, the second-best on record, including a monthly record of 22,202dmt in May
Revenue of US$31m on sales of 33,977dmt at a realised FOB price of US$921/dmt, as the final tonnes under a lagged-pricing legacy contract were sold
Lithium recoveries of 71%, up 5% QoQ, on high mill utilisation of 92% and improved feed grades
Unit operating costs of US$907/dmt FOB, up 3% on US$884 in the prior quarter, reflecting higher-cost inventory and sustained mining intensity
NAL Expansion scoping study more than doubled incremental post-tax NPV8% to C$969m while holding capex at C$366m, with groundbreaking now done and long-lead equipment ordered
Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)
Carnarvon lines up 2027 Bedout drilling
[9:07 am] Carnarvon's quarterly update highlights a multi-well 2027 campaign at its Bedout Sub-basin, located offshore WA. The company continues to trade around negative EV, with a market cap of $170 million vs. $98 million cash, a US$90 million Dorado development carry and 19.9% stake in Strike Energy (currently worth ~$68m).
Transocean Equinox rig contracted for the 2027 Bedout campaign, with drilling to start April 2027 across one firm and one contingent well
Bedout MegaMerge seismic reprocessing lifted gross prospective resources 92% to 6,256mmboe across 130 prospects, from 3,263mmboe in June 2025
Ara shapes up as the standout well, a play-opening test approaching 200mmboe gross with better than a 1-in-3 chance of success some 80km north of Dorado
Dorado holds gross 2C resources of 249m barrels of light oil and condensate and 1.1tcf of gas, with a 19.9% Strike Energy stake also on the books
Company page: Carnarvon Energy (CVN)
Deterra posts record MAC royalty revenue as Thacker Pass construction advances
[9:05 am] The royalty group's foundation iron ore asset delivered its strongest quarter since listing, while its US lithium royalty tracks toward first production in late 2027.
MAC royalty revenue of $61.8m, up 9% on the prior quarter, one of its strongest since Deterra's 2020 listing on record sales volumes and strong realised pricing
MAC record production of 39.7mwmt on a 100% basis, up 1% on the prior quarter, with sales up 7% and implied average iron ore pricing up 2% to $134/t
MAC delivered a $2m capacity payment, following the $20m capacity payment for FY25
Thacker Pass drew US$1.21bn of its US$2.23bn DOE loan, with over 95% detailed engineering and more than 70% procurement complete
First lithium carbonate production at Thacker Pass targeted late 2027, with Deterra holding a 4.8% gross revenue royalty reducing to 1.05% after an expected partial buyback
Company page: Deterra Royalties (DRR)
China condemns new US 301 tariffs but holds off on retaliation
[8:57 am] Beijing objected to Washington's latest duty while noting it stays within a previously agreed ceiling, and separately rejected US claims of AI model distillation.
New 12.5% tariff keeps the US within the 20% ceiling promised in earlier talks, which Beijing cited as reason to hold off retaliating for now
Part of fresh 10-12.5% US tariffs on 60 trading partners, including the EU, Japan and South Korea, following a Section 301 forced-labour probe
China called the investigation and tariffs a textbook act of unilateralism and protectionism, reserving the right to take all necessary measures
A separate Section 301 probe into excess industrial capacity is under way, covering 16 economies including China and the EU
Beijing rejected US allegations that Chinese firms distilled American AI models, calling the claims baseless and a double standard
Source: South China Morning Post
S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth jumps to 37.9%, lifted by Google's Anthropic gain
[8:50 am] Aggregate growth rates have climbed sharply through US reporting season, though a single unrealised gain at Google is doing heavy lifting.
Q2 earnings growth now 37.9%, up from 23.2% at the end of the quarter
Google's results included a $98bn unrealised gain from Anthropic, without which growth is a still-strong 25.9%
86% of reporters have beaten consensus earnings expectations
Earnings have surprised to the upside by 12.6% excluding Google
Strategists flag valuation reset and cautious positioning into Fed meeting
[8:47 am] Sell-side desks point to derisking in equities, tightening financial conditions and muted reactions to earnings beats ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.
S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen from 23.5x to 19.5x, a roughly 15% derisking that suggests some Fed hikes already priced in, per Soc Gen
Nasdaq trading at 21.8x forward P/E, a 10% discount to its 10-year average and the lowest since early 2023, per Goldman Sachs
Goldman's trading desk warns rising real rates are high enough to compete with equities and have become a valuation headwind
BofA notes 1.3x more above- than below-consensus EPS guides, better than the July historical average of 1.0x, though beats are being rewarded less than usual
High bar for tech, with EPS and revenue beats met with 1.0 percentage point of underperformance, per BofA
Positioning cautious, with Goldman's CTA longs in the 49th percentile and likely sellers next week, its sentiment indicator back to neutral, and Vanda flagging retail net flows near post-pandemic lows
LVMH fashion recovery stalls as Iran war deters luxury shoppers
[8:46 am] Louis Vuitton and Dior owner returned to growth for the first time in two years, but the Middle East conflict kept the flagship unit's rebound to a crawl.
Fashion and leather goods organic sales up 1%, missing the 1.52% est, the unit's first revenue growth in two years
Watches and jewellery sales up 11%, well ahead of ests, led by Tiffany and Bulgari
US organic sales up 6%, Europe flat, Japan up 14% and Asia ex-Japan up 4%
Recurring operating profit of €8.69bn (US$9.9bn) in H1, above expectations
Operating margin of 22.5%, little changed on the prior year
Group sales would have grown 4% rather than 3% without the conflict, which sapped demand in hubs like Dubai
Oil tumbles as US and Iran pause strikes, though offramp remains elusive
[8:45 am] Both sides have held fire for three days after a near two-week escalation, but there is no ceasefire yet and mediators are still working to bridge the gap.
US halted strikes on Friday to give peace talks space, with Trump warning attacks resume if no ceasefire deal is reached
Pause partly driven by dwindling US munitions stockpiles, with Gen. Caine flagging that airpower has limits, though Trump publicly dismissed the concerns
Iran denies any direct US talks, saying negotiations are solely with Oman over managing Strait of Hormuz traffic, which it insists remains closed
Qatar and Pakistan mediating a return to the collapsed interim ceasefire, though Iran reportedly views the pause as a tactical US step
Regional risk persists, with Saudi Arabia intercepting Iraq-launched drones and Houthis threatening Red Sea shipping, raising the prospect of dual Gulf and Red Sea disruption
Hedge fund healthcare bets near five-year high, Goldman says
[8:44 am] Hedge funds piled into healthcare for a second straight week, betting AI-driven drug discovery and a strong deal pipeline will pay off.
Sector exposure relative to US equities sat near a five-year high last week, per a Goldman note dated 24 July
Buying concentrated in healthcare equipment and supplies, life sciences tools and pharmaceuticals
Specialist healthcare funds returned near 40% between August 2025 and April 2026 versus 17% for generalist stock funds
Healthcare-focused launches made up 24% of new funds this year, the highest since at least 2009
M&A deal volumes projected to hit US$173bn in 2026, the highest since 2019, aided by faster FDA approvals
Source: Reuters
CXMT surges 466% in debut to become China's largest onshore-listed company
[8:42 am] China's fourth-largest DRAM maker exploded higher in its Shanghai debut as investors chased a rare pure-play bet on Beijing's chip self-sufficiency push.
Shares closed at 49 yuan, up 466%, valuing CXMT at about 3.3 trillion yuan (US$488bn) and making it the biggest A-share company
IPO raised as much as 66.6 billion yuan, the second-largest in China's history
Generated 141 billion yuan in turnover on the day, nearly 7% of all onshore market transactions
Retail portion was 212 times oversubscribed, with 9.4 million orders worth 7.07 trillion yuan, about 10 times SpaceX's record order book
Source: Bloomberg
Nvidia credit risk hits record on $750bn OpenAI financing talks
[8:41 am] The cost of insuring Nvidia's debt against default surged the most on record after reports the chipmaker is in talks over more than $750 billion of AI infrastructure financing tied to OpenAI.
Five-year CDS spread rose as much as 0.14 percentage point to 0.82 percentage point, the biggest intraday jump since the swaps began actively trading in November
Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250bn to help OpenAI lease a 10GW Ohio data centre developed by SoftBank, potentially the largest data centre project ever announced
Total Ohio project could cost more than $500bn including chips, with Nvidia separately discussing $350bn of financing for OpenAI's chip purchases
SK Hynix parent initiative flagged late last week worth more than $500bn adds to the commitment pile
Analysts warn the scale of capex and reliance on off-balance-sheet structures and intercompany arrangements could trigger credit rating downgrades
Backstopping loss-making customers like OpenAI raises Nvidia's customer-credit exposure, though terms are not final and the deal could still collapse
Good morning!
[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are down 20 pts (-0.22%).
The overnight session in a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher but well off best levels
Dow (+0.51%) outperformed and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) eked out a record close, but a 5% tumble for Nvidia and a record CDS spike dragged the Nasdaq lower
A third night without US strikes on Iran triggered a cross-asset relief rally, sending most commodities higher and easing the US 10-year yield from a one-and-a-half year high
Chinese memory maker CXMT soared 466% on its debut, though this stoked competition fears and weighed on memory names like SanDisk (-14%)
