ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 28th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 28. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Web Travel guides to EBITDA growth and unveils $90m buy-back

[9:31 am] The online travel group flagged first-half earnings around consensus and a buy-back, with the board arguing the shares undervalue its trading and outlook.

• 1H27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $80-86m vs $82.7m ests (midpoint in line), despite currency headwinds of about 9%

• On-market buy-back of up to $90m, funded from existing cash, running 12 August 2026 to 28 July 2027

• WebBeds 1H27 revenue expected up 11-15% on 1H26 in EUR functional currency

• WebBeds TTV margin seen at circa 6.7%, up from 6.5% in 1H26, a third straight half of margin gains

• Cash conversion greater than 100% for 1H27, with strong liquidity after April's convertible note redemption

• Board views the current share price as not reflecting trading performance, cash generation and the medium-term earnings outlook

A fairly orderly guidance update, with the WebBeds TTV margin of ~6.7% is tracking well-ahead of Macquarie (May-26) forecasts of 6.5%. WEB shares have tumbled 41.% year-to-date, so a mix of better-than-expected margins and a chunky buyback ($90m vs. $1.0bn market cap) should give it something to work with this morning.

Company page: Web Travel Group (WEB)

Duratec wins ~$70m of contracts across energy, marine and mining

[9:19 am] The engineering and remediation contractor secured four awards, headlined by a construction management role at Orica's Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub.

• Four contract awards worth a combined ~$70m across the Energy, Marine and Mining & Industrial sectors

• Construction management contract at Orica's Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, marking a step into future energy and fuel infrastructure

• ECI services for Perth Airport's Jet Fuel Expansion Program via the 50:50 West Coast Civil JV, running about six months with potential downstream work

• Wharf remediation for Fremantle Ports at the Kwinana Bulk Jetty, a roughly 30-month scope of cathodic protection and concrete repairs

• Structural integrity remediation for Rio Tinto at its Gove bauxite export facilities under a new three-year MCSA

Company page: Duratec (DUR)

Genesis prints record FY26 output but Q4 costs miss on higher AISC

[9:14 am] The gold miner topped Q4 sales ests and delivered record annual production, though quarterly costs came in above consensus, with FY27 growth and a Vault merger ahead.

• Q4 gold production of 70.8koz at AISC of $2,797/oz vs $2,646/oz ests (6% higher costs)

• Q4 gold sales of 77.8koz vs 70.5koz ests (10% beat), generating revenue of $480.4m

• Q4 realised price of A$6,175/oz vs A$6,320/oz ests (2% miss)

• Record FY26 production of 285,402oz at AISC of $2,670/oz, within guidance, with FY26 unaudited underlying NPAT of $540-550m

• Net cash of $320.1m at 30 June, with cash of $520.1m against $200m bank debt, after funding the $447m Magnetic acquisition

• FY27 stand-alone guidance of 270-300koz at AISC of A$2,750-3,050/oz vs. Macquarie's ests (May-26) of 288koz at A$2,643/oz (1% miss for production at 10% higher than expected costs)

Company page: Genesis Minerals (GMD)

Iluka beats on production and sales as zircon volumes surge

[9:11 am] The mineral sands producer topped Q2 production and sales ests, with a step-up in zircon shipments and firmer realised prices, though Balranald guidance was trimmed.

• Total Z/R/SR production of 58.0kt vs 53.6kt ests (8% beat), with synthetic rutile kilns idle and Narngulu processing Jacinth-Ambrosia concentrate

• Total Z/R/SR sales of 157.4kt vs 99.5kt ests (58% beat), materially higher than Q1 on stronger zircon volumes

• Mineral sands revenue of $286m (unclear if comparable to $179.2m ests, 60% beat)

• Zircon production of 25.7kt vs 35.8kt ests (28% miss), offset by ZIC of 21.7kt vs 12.0kt ests (81% beat) as the mix shifted toward concentrate

• Q2 realised zircon sand price of US$1,546/t, up US$55/t on Q1, with the Q3 contracted price set to rise a further US$215/t

• FY26 zircon production still in line with ~180kt guidance, though now a more even split between sand and ZIC, with Balranald final product volumes now lower than February guidance

Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)

Elevra sets production records as legacy pricing contract rolls off

[9:08 am] The lithium miner posted its second-best spodumene quarter and locked in a growth financing package, though realised prices fell sharply as a legacy contract closed out.

• Spodumene concentrate production up 15% QoQ to 54,479dmt at 5.0% grade, the second-best on record, including a monthly record of 22,202dmt in May

• Revenue of US$31m on sales of 33,977dmt at a realised FOB price of US$921/dmt, as the final tonnes under a lagged-pricing legacy contract were sold

• Lithium recoveries of 71%, up 5% QoQ, on high mill utilisation of 92% and improved feed grades

• Unit operating costs of US$907/dmt FOB, up 3% on US$884 in the prior quarter, reflecting higher-cost inventory and sustained mining intensity

• NAL Expansion scoping study more than doubled incremental post-tax NPV8% to C$969m while holding capex at C$366m, with groundbreaking now done and long-lead equipment ordered

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

Carnarvon lines up 2027 Bedout drilling

[9:07 am] Carnarvon's quarterly update highlights a multi-well 2027 campaign at its Bedout Sub-basin, located offshore WA. The company continues to trade around negative EV, with a market cap of $170 million vs. $98 million cash, a US$90 million Dorado development carry and 19.9% stake in Strike Energy (currently worth ~$68m).

• Transocean Equinox rig contracted for the 2027 Bedout campaign, with drilling to start April 2027 across one firm and one contingent well

• Bedout MegaMerge seismic reprocessing lifted gross prospective resources 92% to 6,256mmboe across 130 prospects, from 3,263mmboe in June 2025

• Ara shapes up as the standout well, a play-opening test approaching 200mmboe gross with better than a 1-in-3 chance of success some 80km north of Dorado

• Dorado holds gross 2C resources of 249m barrels of light oil and condensate and 1.1tcf of gas, with a 19.9% Strike Energy stake also on the books

Company page: Carnarvon Energy (CVN)

Deterra posts record MAC royalty revenue as Thacker Pass construction advances

[9:05 am] The royalty group's foundation iron ore asset delivered its strongest quarter since listing, while its US lithium royalty tracks toward first production in late 2027.

• MAC royalty revenue of $61.8m, up 9% on the prior quarter, one of its strongest since Deterra's 2020 listing on record sales volumes and strong realised pricing

• MAC record production of 39.7mwmt on a 100% basis, up 1% on the prior quarter, with sales up 7% and implied average iron ore pricing up 2% to $134/t

• MAC delivered a $2m capacity payment, following the $20m capacity payment for FY25

• Thacker Pass drew US$1.21bn of its US$2.23bn DOE loan, with over 95% detailed engineering and more than 70% procurement complete

• First lithium carbonate production at Thacker Pass targeted late 2027, with Deterra holding a 4.8% gross revenue royalty reducing to 1.05% after an expected partial buyback

Company page: Deterra Royalties (DRR)

China condemns new US 301 tariffs but holds off on retaliation

[8:57 am] Beijing objected to Washington's latest duty while noting it stays within a previously agreed ceiling, and separately rejected US claims of AI model distillation.

• New 12.5% tariff keeps the US within the 20% ceiling promised in earlier talks, which Beijing cited as reason to hold off retaliating for now

• Part of fresh 10-12.5% US tariffs on 60 trading partners, including the EU, Japan and South Korea, following a Section 301 forced-labour probe

• China called the investigation and tariffs a textbook act of unilateralism and protectionism, reserving the right to take all necessary measures

• A separate Section 301 probe into excess industrial capacity is under way, covering 16 economies including China and the EU

• Beijing rejected US allegations that Chinese firms distilled American AI models, calling the claims baseless and a double standard

Source: South China Morning Post

S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth jumps to 37.9%, lifted by Google's Anthropic gain

[8:50 am] Aggregate growth rates have climbed sharply through US reporting season, though a single unrealised gain at Google is doing heavy lifting.

• Q2 earnings growth now 37.9%, up from 23.2% at the end of the quarter

• Google's results included a $98bn unrealised gain from Anthropic, without which growth is a still-strong 25.9%

• 86% of reporters have beaten consensus earnings expectations

• Earnings have surprised to the upside by 12.6% excluding Google

Strategists flag valuation reset and cautious positioning into Fed meeting

[8:47 am] Sell-side desks point to derisking in equities, tightening financial conditions and muted reactions to earnings beats ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

• S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen from 23.5x to 19.5x, a roughly 15% derisking that suggests some Fed hikes already priced in, per Soc Gen

• Nasdaq trading at 21.8x forward P/E, a 10% discount to its 10-year average and the lowest since early 2023, per Goldman Sachs

• Goldman's trading desk warns rising real rates are high enough to compete with equities and have become a valuation headwind

• BofA notes 1.3x more above- than below-consensus EPS guides, better than the July historical average of 1.0x, though beats are being rewarded less than usual

• High bar for tech, with EPS and revenue beats met with 1.0 percentage point of underperformance, per BofA

• Positioning cautious, with Goldman's CTA longs in the 49th percentile and likely sellers next week, its sentiment indicator back to neutral, and Vanda flagging retail net flows near post-pandemic lows

LVMH fashion recovery stalls as Iran war deters luxury shoppers

[8:46 am] Louis Vuitton and Dior owner returned to growth for the first time in two years, but the Middle East conflict kept the flagship unit's rebound to a crawl.

• Fashion and leather goods organic sales up 1%, missing the 1.52% est, the unit's first revenue growth in two years

• Watches and jewellery sales up 11%, well ahead of ests, led by Tiffany and Bulgari

• US organic sales up 6%, Europe flat, Japan up 14% and Asia ex-Japan up 4%

• Recurring operating profit of €8.69bn (US$9.9bn) in H1, above expectations

• Operating margin of 22.5%, little changed on the prior year

• Group sales would have grown 4% rather than 3% without the conflict, which sapped demand in hubs like Dubai

Oil tumbles as US and Iran pause strikes, though offramp remains elusive

[8:45 am] Both sides have held fire for three days after a near two-week escalation, but there is no ceasefire yet and mediators are still working to bridge the gap.

• US halted strikes on Friday to give peace talks space, with Trump warning attacks resume if no ceasefire deal is reached

• Pause partly driven by dwindling US munitions stockpiles, with Gen. Caine flagging that airpower has limits, though Trump publicly dismissed the concerns

• Iran denies any direct US talks, saying negotiations are solely with Oman over managing Strait of Hormuz traffic, which it insists remains closed

• Qatar and Pakistan mediating a return to the collapsed interim ceasefire, though Iran reportedly views the pause as a tactical US step

• Regional risk persists, with Saudi Arabia intercepting Iraq-launched drones and Houthis threatening Red Sea shipping, raising the prospect of dual Gulf and Red Sea disruption

Hedge fund healthcare bets near five-year high, Goldman says

[8:44 am] Hedge funds piled into healthcare for a second straight week, betting AI-driven drug discovery and a strong deal pipeline will pay off.

• Sector exposure relative to US equities sat near a five-year high last week, per a Goldman note dated 24 July

• Buying concentrated in healthcare equipment and supplies, life sciences tools and pharmaceuticals

• Specialist healthcare funds returned near 40% between August 2025 and April 2026 versus 17% for generalist stock funds

• Healthcare-focused launches made up 24% of new funds this year, the highest since at least 2009

• M&A deal volumes projected to hit US$173bn in 2026, the highest since 2019, aided by faster FDA approvals

Source: Reuters

CXMT surges 466% in debut to become China's largest onshore-listed company

[8:42 am] China's fourth-largest DRAM maker exploded higher in its Shanghai debut as investors chased a rare pure-play bet on Beijing's chip self-sufficiency push.

• Shares closed at 49 yuan, up 466%, valuing CXMT at about 3.3 trillion yuan (US$488bn) and making it the biggest A-share company

• IPO raised as much as 66.6 billion yuan, the second-largest in China's history

• Generated 141 billion yuan in turnover on the day, nearly 7% of all onshore market transactions

• Retail portion was 212 times oversubscribed, with 9.4 million orders worth 7.07 trillion yuan, about 10 times SpaceX's record order book

Source: Bloomberg

Nvidia credit risk hits record on $750bn OpenAI financing talks

[8:41 am] The cost of insuring Nvidia's debt against default surged the most on record after reports the chipmaker is in talks over more than $750 billion of AI infrastructure financing tied to OpenAI.

• Five-year CDS spread rose as much as 0.14 percentage point to 0.82 percentage point, the biggest intraday jump since the swaps began actively trading in November

• Nvidia in talks to guarantee up to $250bn to help OpenAI lease a 10GW Ohio data centre developed by SoftBank, potentially the largest data centre project ever announced

• Total Ohio project could cost more than $500bn including chips, with Nvidia separately discussing $350bn of financing for OpenAI's chip purchases

• SK Hynix parent initiative flagged late last week worth more than $500bn adds to the commitment pile

• Analysts warn the scale of capex and reliance on off-balance-sheet structures and intercompany arrangements could trigger credit rating downgrades

• Backstopping loss-making customers like OpenAI raises Nvidia's customer-credit exposure, though terms are not final and the deal could still collapse

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are down 20 pts (-0.22%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher but well off best levels

• Dow (+0.51%) outperformed and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) eked out a record close, but a 5% tumble for Nvidia and a record CDS spike dragged the Nasdaq lower

• A third night without US strikes on Iran triggered a cross-asset relief rally, sending most commodities higher and easing the US 10-year yield from a one-and-a-half year high

• Chinese memory maker CXMT soared 466% on its debut, though this stoked competition fears and weighed on memory names like SanDisk (-14%)