ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 13th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, October 13. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Wildcat’s September quarter: $76m cash ahead of DFS and maiden resource

[9:11 am] Wildcat Resources is approaching a catalyst-heavy end to 2026, with its Tabba Tabba definitive feasibility study and a maiden Bolt Cutter Central resource both due this half.

• Cash of $76.1m at 30 September vs a market cap of about $390m, after Tranche 1 of a $60m placement raised $56m before costs

• Tabba Tabba DFS is on track for completion in CY2026, with placement funds going towards development and early works

• Pegmatite rights over E45/2364 add about 7km of the Tabba Tabba Shear, tripling the explorable strike length

• Tabba Tabba drilling returned 13.9m at 2.0% Li2O from 45.2m and 25.1m at 1.2% Li2O from 56.5m

• Bolt Cutter Central has a mineralised footprint of about 2.3km by 0.8km that remains open, with hits including 16m at 1.5% Li₂O from 116m

Company page: Wildcat Resources (WC8)

Chinese lithium futures slump on EU hybrid cap

[8:58 am] Chinese lithium futures sank after the EU moved to cap Chinese hybrid imports, adding to concerns about softening battery demand.

• Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell 8.4% to 108,760 yuan a tonne, now down 48% from the mid-May high of 209,880 yuan a tonne

• EU cap limits Chinese hybrid imports to 350,000 a year from as early as 1 December, roughly 45% below this year’s run rate of 650,000

• Quota rises 6% a year to about 417,000 by year four, around eight times the annualised import level of October 2024

The bellwether PLS Group ran almost 500% from its 30 May 2025 low of $1.13 to a record high of $6.68 by 29 May 2026. The stock has since halved to $3.37 and down 19% year-to-date.

PLS Group price chart (Source: TradingView)

Strong earnings can outrun rising yields, Goldman data shows

[8:50 am] Goldman’s data since 1950 shows that even when 10-year yields rise more than 50bps, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12-month return of about 18% when earnings growth tops 20%, compared with under 5% when earnings growth is below 10%.

So really, solid markets and rising yields can co-exist, as long as earnings growth/momentum remains strong (and probably why the ASX is going nowhere).

Goldman lifts Brent forecast to US$90 as risks skew higher

[8:49 am] Goldman Sachs still expects Gulf supply to adapt and pull crude prices lower over time, but ongoing supply risks are slowing the easing in the risk premium.

• Brent Dec26 forecast raised to US$90 a barrel from US$85, with the risk premium estimated at just over US$20, while the 2027 average of US$80 is unchanged

• Persian Gulf exports, including dark exports, have recovered to their 2025 average, with the global market roughly balanced in September

• Restocking demand from low inventories outside OECD commercial storage lifts Goldman’s September Brent fair value by US$6 to US$80

• Upside scenario sees Brent averaging around US$125 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 5mb/d below Feb26 levels

• Downside scenario sees Brent falling into the US$60s in 2027 if Gulf output rises 1mb/d above Feb26 levels

Brent nears US$106 as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia escalate

[8:44 am] Oil climbed to its highest in almost a month as attacks on Saudi Arabia and Gulf shipping outweighed the prospect of extra Russian supply.

• Brent up 1.5% to US$105.89 a barrel

• Houthi strike on Riyadh’s main airport killed 12 and injured more than 300, with further drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday

• Trump is considering joining Saudi retaliation against the Houthis in Yemen

• At least 10 VLCCs and several Suezmax tankers heading to Fujairah stopped or reversed course, threatening the transfer workaround that restored Gulf exports to near prewar levels

• Saudi Arabia plans to lift pipeline capacity bypassing Hormuz by 40% to 10m barrels a day within two to three years

• Zelenskyy said Russia violated Trump’s energy ceasefire by attacking a Ukrainian gas facility

• UK PM Burnham said Iran’s IRGC “almost certainly” directed the alleged terror plot at RAF Fairford, with two Iranian nationals sanctioned

India inflation hits near two-year high, backing RBI hikes

[8:42 am] India’s inflation is closing in on the top of the RBI’s 2% to 6% target band, reinforcing last week’s first rate hike in almost four years.

• CPI rose 5.54% year-on-year in September vs 5.58% ests (in line), up from 4.83% in August and the highest since late 2024

• Food inflation climbed to 7.74% from 5.97%, with deficient rainfall expected to add pressure

• RBI hiked 25bps to 5.50% last week and expects inflation to average 6% in the December quarter, with Elara Securities tipping two more hikes by end-March

• India 10-year yield rose about 10bps to 7.40%

• Amundi sees a rebound in Indian equities once the Iran war ends, after the Nifty 50 fell nearly 14% this year on more than US$30bn of foreign outflows

Source: Bloomberg

Microsoft to deploy over a million in-house AI chips next year

[8:41 am] Microsoft unveiled its third-generation Maia 300 AI chip as it looks to power its AI software with mostly homegrown hardware.

• Deployment of potentially more than a million Maia 300 chips is planned next year, in “multi-gigawatt deployments”

• Efficiency claim of about 40% more useful computing per megawatt than leading GPU-based systems, though Microsoft did not name the comparison

• Each rack holds 96 chips using about 167 kilowatts, vs 142 kilowatts for Nvidia’s 72-GPU GB300 racks

• Chiplet design uses TSMC 2-nanometre technology for key compute and cheaper 3-nanometre for data movement

• Capex is expected to top US$175bn this calendar year

Source: Bloomberg

Micron, SK Hynix slide as China’s CXMT flags memory breakthrough

[8:40 am] Memory chip stocks fell after Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies reported progress on a new cell design also being pursued by the industry’s biggest players.

• Micron fell 3.9%, SK Hynix’s US listing dropped 4% and Sandisk slid 6%, while Samsung fell 4% as the Kospi dropped 3.65%

• CXMT plans to launch a new server memory product built on the architecture by the end of 2026

• Micron is down about 16% from its June all-time high

Firmus IPO collapse raises bar for Asian AI infrastructure deals

[8:39 am] The pulled float of Nvidia-backed Australian data centre operator Firmus Grid is forcing investors to separate AI infrastructure names with earnings from those still building.

• Firmus withdrew a raise of up to US$5.5bn after investors baulked at a US$30bn valuation, and is now exploring a private round with existing investors

• Only 46MW of its 912MW pipeline has been built

• Asia-Pacific equity raisings have hit nearly US$250bn this year, after about US$260bn in 2025

• Recent debuts are struggling, with Luxshare down 20% and Zhongji Innolight down 7% since July, and Z.AI and MiniMax down more than 70% from record highs

• Future IPOs will need stronger contracted offtake, clearer visibility on energised megawatts and more conservative leverage, says NYU’s Winston Ma

Source: Bloomberg

US bank stocks slump into correction ahead of earnings

[8:38 am] US bank shares have tumbled despite 10-year yields above 5%, upending the view that the sector benefits from higher rates.

• Over the past month JPMorgan is down 6%, Citi 6.5%, Wells Fargo 7%, Morgan Stanley 11%, Goldman Sachs 12% and Bank of America 13%

• KBW Nasdaq Bank Index is more than 14% below its August peak

• Deal pipeline concerns are weighing, with OpenAI’s IPO pushed to 2027 and Oura’s listing delayed, according to Evercore ISI

• AI disruption fears include deposit competition from AI cash-yield tools and new agentic trading features at Robinhood and Coinbase

In a nutshell: Wall Street flat as chipmakers slide

[8:37 am] US stocks drifted on the slowest trading day of 2026 as investors held fire ahead of the earnings season and Wednesday’s CPI print.

• S&P 500 down 0.06% to 7,807 and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%, while the Dow rose 0.38% as chipmakers posted their longest losing streak since July

• Earnings season kicks off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo, with S&P 500 Q3 earnings ests between 25% and 30% growth year-on-year

• Goldman Sachs upgraded global stocks to overweight from neutral on a three-month view, citing a valuation de-rating and healthy profit outlook

• Cleveland Fed’s Hammack said a restrictive stance is appropriate and favoured smaller, quicker adjustments, but stopped short of backing an October hike

• Energy sector ETF hit a record high on rising oil, while Salesforce rose 2% after a Bank of America double upgrade to buy with a target of US$285 from US$160

Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are up 9 pts (+0.10%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Wall Street finished mixed and fairly flattish as renewed chipmaker weakness drove a rotation into defensives and value

  • S&P 500 (-0.06%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.07%)

  • Nasdaq (-0.44%), Dow (+0.38%), Russell 2000 (-0.45%)

• China's memory breakthrough hit Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung, adding to the AI hardware wobble

• US Dollar Index climbed 0.3% to 102.58, the highest since April 2025, while US Treasury market was shut for Columbus day

• Brent pushed above US$105 as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed Trump's Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire