ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 31st July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 31. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Defence stocks return to highs

[1:30 pm] Droneshield and Electro Optic Systems are up 17% and 7.5% respectively, after experiencing a sharp pullback in the past two weeks. Both stocks reported some strong quarterly numbers (Droneshield yesterday, EOS today).

Droneshield reported tripe digit growth across most key metrics, an unsurprising outcome given its 380% year-to-date rally and recent streak of contract wins. Here are the key numbers for the June quarter:

• Revenue up 480% to $38.8 million

• $176.3 million of revenue already received or under committed purchase orders for 2025 delivery, already 3x of entire FY24 revenue

• SaaS revenues up 161% to $1.9 million

• Cash balance of $192 million, with no debt

• "Well placed to deliver on short notice", with $81 million of inventory in book value

• Pipeline of $2.3 billion (as of July 2025)

Likewise, EOS said it expects 1H25 revenue to be approximately $40-45 million, up 77.8% year-on-year. The quarterly also noted:

• The contract backlog at 30 June 2025 was $170m, a $34m or 25% increase from 31 December 2024. Growing the contract backlog remains a key priority.

• Advanced negotiations continue with two potential customers for EOS' High Energy Laser Weapon. One opportunity is targeted for signing during 2025, valued at approximately $100m.

• Cash holdings at 30 June 2025 was $130.3m, up $27.2m from the prior quarter.

• FY25 revenue is expected to be heavily biased to the second half.

Droneshield (orange) and EOS (blue) price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Qoria cracks 60 cents

[1:20 pm] Cyber safety company Qoria has tipped over 60 cents for the first time since January 2022. The stock has aggressive re-rated 33% in the last eight sessions, after its June quarter update noted:

• FY25 EBITDA growth of 670% to $15.4 million

• ARR up 25% year-on-year to $29 million

• FY26 ARR growth of at least 20%

• FY26 EBITDA margin of more than 20%

Qoria price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Ramelius completes acquisition of Spartan Resources

[11:52 am] Spartan Resources shares have been suspended since 22 July, and will delist on Friday, 1 August.

Infratil has already replaced the company in the S&P/ASX 200, effective prior to the open of trading on 23 July.

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Retail stocks return to positive territory

[11:49 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Discretionary Index slipped as much as 0.4% in early trade, but rallied back to breakeven ahead of the retail sales report at 11:30 am. The Index is now up around 0.28%.

S&P/ASX 200 Discretionary Index intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Australian retail sales surge in June

[11:38 am] Australian retail sales jumped 1.2% month-on-month in June vs. market expectations of a 0.4% increase.

"The strong June month rise in retail turnover was driven by discounts linked to sales and new product releases," said ABS head of business statistics, Robert Ewing.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the ABS report:

• Non-food related spending drove most of the rise in retail turnover. There were increases in all industries, led by household goods retailing (+2.3 per cent) and other retailing (+1.9 per cent).

• "Consumers are targeting sales events with a focus on value for big ticket items like household furniture, bedding, electronic devices and TVs," Mr Ewing said.

• "Turnover for electrical and gaming retailers was lifted further by the much-anticipated launch of the Nintendo Switch 2, which delivered record sales."

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Airtasker rallies on 4Q25 update

[11:10 am] Airtasker flew under the radar this morning and so did the share price (flat open, briefly rallied 25%, currently up 17.7%).

Its June quarter and FY25 update highlighted some encouraging numbers, including:

• Positive free cash flow of $1.2 million for FY25

• Strong financial position with $19.1 million in cash and term deposits as at 30 June 2025

• FY25 Group revenue up 13% to $52.7 million, with 4Q25 Group revenue up 20.6% to $13.4 million

Growth was strong across all three operating regions (Australia, UK and US).

• Australia revenue growth of 20.7% in 4Q25 to $10.3 million, delivering positive net EBITDA of $2.5 million

• UK revenues for the quarter up 104.8% year-on-year to £512k

• US revenue for the quarter up 754.5% year-on-year to US$188,000

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Airtasker (ART)

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Small caps making moves

[11:05 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:41 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Cettire dives on US de minimis changes

[10:16 am] Cettire shares dived as much as 26% in early trade as Trump will remove the de minimis duty exemption for all countries, effective 29 August 2025. Goods under US$800 will now be subject to import duties, regardless of origin.

Cettire notes that approximately 40% of its gross revenue in May–June 2025 came from US shipments, with most under the de minimis threshold.

The company is currently assessing the impact, noting some luxury brands plan to raise US prices to offset tariffs.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cettire (CTT)

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Copper stocks sink, but off worst levels

[10:12 am] Copper stocks opened broadly lower on Thursday, but already bouncing off session lows.

Sandfire opened 7.3% lower ($10.30), currently down 5.5% ($10.50).

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Flight Centre hits lowest since November 2020

[10:05 am] Shares in Flight Centre tumbled 8% ($11.84%) in early trade after reporting preliminary FY25 profit before tax of $285-295 million vs. prior guidance of $300-335 million. This represents an 8.7% downgrade at the midpoint and 8.8% below Goldman Sachs estimates of $318 million.

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Analysts divided on MinRes

[9:50 am] MinRes reported a better-than-expected June quarter report on Wednesday, with production and costs beating market expectations across all key segments (Onslow, lithium and mining services).

Onslow ramp-up was tracking ahead of schedule, but completion of the haul road remains key. The state of MinRes' balance sheet remains highly leveraged, but net debt slightly improved due to FX gains and lower capex.

Most analysts edged their target prices higher after the quarterly, but remain cautious after the recent share price rally.

• Morgan Stanley retained Overweight, raised target from $35 to $37.50. Strong FY25 finish and early Onslow ramp-up benefits support forecast upgrades and medium-term optimism.

• RBC retained Outperform, raised target from $36 to $38. Cashflow improvement, strong cost performance, and deferred capex support a more flexible FY26 outlook.

• Morgans upgraded to Hold from Trim, raised target from $30 to $31. Marked turnaround in results, but haul road reliability and elevated gearing remain key watchpoints.

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Analysts remain operationally bullish on Pilbara Minerals

[9:42 am] Pilbara Minerals delivered a stronger-than-expected June quarter and full-year result on Wednesday, with production and sales volume well-above market expectations. Its FY26 guidance was also in-line across production, costs and capex.

However, realised lithium prices was below market expectations due to product grade, subdued prices and the timing of spot sales. Overall, most analysts view the company as a low-risk operator, with a strong balance sheet and positioned to benefit from any lithium price upside.

• E&P retained Positive, target remains $2.60. Production beat and ore sorting seen as key drivers of cost leverage; POSCO JV funding risk remains a concern.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, raised target from $1.50 to $1.90. Strong finish and ongoing cost-out program offset weaker pricing; long-term value potential recognised.

• JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight from Neutral, target remains $1.25. FY26 guidance viewed as cost heavy; downgrade driven by valuation despite near-term price upgrades.

• RBC retained Outperform, raised target from $2.60 to $2.70. FY26 guidance seen as conservative, with higher volumes supported by P1000 ramp and RoM stockpiles.

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Origin Energy sees lower LNG production in FY26

[9:36 am] Origin Energy is expecting slightly below consensus/guidance LNG production in FY26.

Here are the key numbers for FY25:

• Integrated Gas (APLNG 100%) production down 2% to 682.1 PJ, relatively in-line with Macquarie ests of 681 PJ

• Integrated Gas (APLNG 100%) commodity revenue flat at $9.89bn

• Electricity sales up 1% to 36.0TWh

• Natural gas sales down 3% to 191.4 (PJ)

FY26 guidance (APLNG 100%) included production of 635-680 PJ and capex/opex of $2.9-3.2 billion. The production guidance is down from prior expectations of 670-690 PJ and Macquarie estimates of 663 PJ. At the midpoint, the new guidance is 3.3% below the prior guidance and 0.8% below Macquarie ests.

"For FY26 Origin expects Australia Pacific LNG production to be lower compared to FY25, reflecting the impact of natural field decline in some operated and non-operated fields," said CEO Frank Calabria.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)

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Flight Centre to miss FY25 profit guidance

[9:25 am] Flight Centre has released preliminary FY25 results and expects to deliver profit before tax of $285-295 million vs. prior guidance of $300-335 million. This represents an 8.7% downgrade at the midpoint and 8.8% below Goldman Sachs estimates of $318 million.

The company said this follows a challenging fourth quarter, reflecting underperformance and additional non-recurring costs in Asia, and the "significant impacts of escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing global downturn in bookings to the United States on leisure results late in the year."

For context, Flight Centre downgraded its FY25 guidance back in May, lowering BPT estimates to $300-335 million from prior guidance of $365-405 million. After this downgrade, Goldman Sachs cut their target price from $20.00 to $15.00 but reiterated a Buy rating.

Today's new guidance undercuts their already reduced profit before tax estimate of $318 million. Despite the poor outcome, the stock is down around 21% year-to-date and trading not far from four-year lows. Overall, a net negative, but the stock could be in for a volatile session.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Flight Centre (FLT)

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Beach Energy reports slight FY25 beat

[9:19 am] Beach Energy reported a relatively strong June quarter production report and full-year numbers that were generally in-line with market expectations.

• Q4 production of 4.6MMboe, in-line with consensus

• Sales volume of 5.9MMboe vs. 5.4MMboe ests (9.3% beat)

• Sales revenue of $455m vs. $418.3m ests (8.8% beat)

Numbers for the full-year were relatively in-line with Macquarie ests:

• Production of 19.7MMboe vs. 19.54MMboe ests (0.8% beat)

• Sales revenue of $1.99bn vs. $1.93bn ests (3.1% beat)

Though the company flagged a sizeable non-cash impairment charge of $674 million, related "predominantly to lower commodity price outlook."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Beach Energy (BPT)

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Rio Tinto set to tumble on weak first-half results

[9:10 am] NYSE-listed Rio Tinto shares tumbled 4.4% overnight after first-half earnings missed market expectations. Here are some of the key numbers:

• Net cash generated from operating activities down 2% to US$6.92bn

• Free cash flow down 31% to US$1.96bn

• Underlying EBITDA down 5% to US$11.54bn

• Underlying EPS down 16% to 296 US cents

• Ordinary dividend per share down 16% to 148 US cents

"Rio Tinto produced a good set of operational results across key divisions that was a 6% beat at the product group level, but this was dragged down by other items including restructuring costs at Arcadium, resulting in a 2% beat vs RBCe overall," said RBC Capital Markets analysts Kaan Peker and Ben Davis.

"EPS and dividends were a 10% and 4% miss respectively on higher finance items and tax, and consequently Rio Tinto has lifted 2025 effective tax rate guidance upwards to 33% (previously 30%)."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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US copper prices plunge

[9:05 am] US copper futures recorded the largest intraday fall on record, down 20% after Trump shocked traders by exempting refined copper from his 50% tariffs.

The 50% tariffs will only apply to imports of semi-finished copper (wire, pipe etc) but not refined copper (cathodes, raw material). US copper was trading around 28% above LME copper before the news.

TSX-listed Capstone Copper briefly dipped 9.8% on the news and finished the session 3.7% lower. Most copper miners finished the session lower but off worst levels. It'll be interesting to see how local names like Sandfire, 29Metals etc. perform.

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Meta lifts capex guidance

[8:59 am] Meta's CFO Susan Li says "we currently expect 2025 capex, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $66bn to $72bn, narrowed from our prior outlook of $64bn to $72bn, and up ~$30bn YoY at the midpoint."

"We currently expect another year of similarly significant capex growth in 2026, as we continue aggressively pursuing opportunities to bring additional capacity online to meet the needs of our AI efforts & business operations," added Li.

In terms of financing such spend: "We certainly expect that we will finance some large, large share of [our FY 26 capex] ourselves. But we're also exploring ways to work with financial partners to co-develop data centers. We don't have any finalised transactions to announce, but we generally believe that there will be models here that will attract significant external financing to support large-scale data center projects that are developed using, you know, our ability to build world-class infrastructure."

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Meta and Microsoft crush earnings

[8:55 am] Powell might've swung the market into negative territory, but Zuck and Nadella quickly lifted futures back into positive territory.

Meta (shares up 11.6% after hours) crushed earnings expectations on all fronts, with pretty much every key metric accelerating. Revenue up 22%, even users up 6% and operating margin jumped to 43% (from 38% a year ago).

• Q2 earnings: Revenue grew 22% YoY to $39.07 billion vs. $38.31 billion expected (beat by 2%), with net income jumping 73% and EPS of $5.16 vs. $4.73 expected (beat by 9%)

• Key Drivers: Advertising revenue rose 22% YoY driven by Facebook and Instagram apps, operating margin expanded due to cost-cutting initiatives that eliminated 21,000 jobs, and continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure including 350,000 Nvidia H100 chips

• Sector commentary: Meta gained market share in digital advertising with 22% growth vs. rival Alphabet's 11% Google ad growth, benefiting from the broader shift to digital advertising and AI-powered recommendation improvements

Microsoft (shares up 9.0% after hours) also crushed earnings expectations, with Azure surpassing $75 billion in annual revenue, up 34% year-on-year, driven by growth across all workloads. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue up 18% to $76.44bn vs. $73.89bn ests (3.5% beat)

• EPS up 24% to $3.65 vs. $3.37 ests (8.3% beat)

• Intelligent Cloud revenue up 26% to $29.88bn vs. $29.10bn ests (2.7% beat)

• Azure & other cloud services up 39% YoY vs. +34.2% ests (4.8ppt beat)

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US Q2 GDP tops market expectations

[8:49 am] US GDP moderated on an inflation-adjusted basis, according to preliminary government data overnight. Here are the key takeaways from the report:

• Headline GDP beat expectations, rising 3.0% vs. 2.6% ests, but underlying growth was much softer; average first half growth was just 1.25%, down from 2.25% in 2024.

• Consumer spending remained weak, up just 1.4%, rebounding from 0.5% in the first quarter, but still the slowest two-quarter stretch since the pandemic.

• Final sales to private domestic purchasers — a key demand gauge stripping out trade and inventories — rose just 1.2%, signaling real demand is slowing.

• Net exports added 5.0 ppt to GDP, reversing a Q1 drag, but largely a statistical swing due to tariff-related trade distortions, inventory drawdowns subtracted -3.17 ppt, the most since 2020.

• Residential investment fell 4.6%, showing housing remains a major economic drag amid high mortgage rates and weak affordability.

• Business confidence showing early signs of stabilising, with firms like United Airlines and Chipotle noting improved consumer sentiment and demand clarity despite policy uncertainty.

• Fiscal spending contracted, with federal government outlays down again, led by the biggest non-defense cut since 2021, reflecting Trump’s push for a leaner government.

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Fed holds rates steady

[8:42 am] The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to hold interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, in-line with market expectations. Here are the key takeaways:

• Governors Waller and Bowman voted against the decision in favour of a 25 bp cut

• Powell's opening sentence shifted from "economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace" to "economic activity moderated in the first half of the year."

• “You could argue we are a bit looking through goods inflation by not raising rates. We haven’t reacted to new inflation. But, I mean, I wouldn’t insist upon that.”

• The likelihood of the Fed cutting in September has dipped from 63.3% a day ago to 45.7% today

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 21pts (-0.24%) after the S&P 500 slipped for a second straight session.

It was a dizzying overnight session, with a long list of catalysts including the Fed decision, Meta and Microsoft earnings, more Trump tariff volatility and GDP data from various countries. I'll do my best to dive into all of them before market open.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.