ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 1st August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 1. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Shane Oliver says shares at risk of short-term correction

[15:44 pm] High valuations and an ongoing tariff war means shares could fall through the seasonally weak months of August and September says Shane Oliver, the chief economist of AMP.

"But with Trump pivoting towards more market friendly policies and central banks, including the Fed and RBA, likely to cut rates further, shares are likely to provide reasonable gains into year end," said Dr Oliver.

By Tom Richardson.

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RBA will cut rates four times by May 2026: Westpac

[15:26 pm] Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis has told investors to prepare for RBA rate cuts in August, November, February 2026 and and May 2026.

"We suspect that this week's data will come as something of a relief to the RBA. By cementing the inflation case to cut, it removes any awkwardness around the signs of a renewed softening in the labour market, which would otherwise conflict with its response to inflation risks," said Ellis.

By Tom Richardson.

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Gold ETFs hit highest first half demand since pandemic rush of 2020

[14:53 pm] The World Gold Council says gold exchange traded funds had a net quarterly demand of 397 tonnes over the June quarter. That's the highest level since the COVID-panic in 2020 sent investors into safe-haven asset of gold over the start of the pandemic era.

"ETF investors, typically more passive, are now actively embracing gold as traditional assets appear increasingly vulnerable to a broader set of global risks," said Shaokai Fan the head of Asia Pacific at the World Gold Council. "The old ‘fear of missing out’ is being superseded by a deeper ‘fear of asset debasement’. In Australia and around the world, investors are adapting to a new and far less predictable market regime.”

By Tom Richardson.

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Asian shares fall on Trump's modified tariffs

[14:35 pm] A new round of tariffs announced by President Trump targeting south and east Asian countries has put a dampener on regional markets today.

Share markets in Japan, China, Hong Kong, Thailand, India and Taipei are all lower in early trade.

Most South East Asian countries have tariffs around 19% or 20% including Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Taiwan.

India and Bangladesh are at 20%.

Australia has a 10% tariff.

By Tom Richardson.

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UBS tips house prices to climb 5% in 2025

[14:04 pm] UBS notes dwelling prices rose 0.6% in July and are now up 3.7% year-on-year.

The investment bank's economics team now expects house prices to climb 5% in 2025 as rate cuts improve affordability.

It added that if the Reserve Bank cuts rates more than expected price gains could be even stronger.

By Tom Richardson.

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Figma more than triples on Wall Street debut

[13:50 pm] Canva rival and design software giant Figma saw its shares more than triple after hitting the New York Stock Exchange boards on Thursday in the US.

In a sensational performance that'll have been cheered at Canva's Surry Hills headquarters, Figma's shares just kept soaring.

Figma's float was priced at $US33 per share, but the stock closed at $115.50 per share on a market cap close to $US68 billion.

The design software sector including Figma, Adobe and Canva has been under the spotlight due to AI being both a potential tailwind and disruptive threat.

By Tom Richardson.

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4D Medical jumps 18% on Pro Medicus investment

[13:35 pm] Shares in healthcare imaging small-cap 4D Medical have surged 29% to 31 cents this morning after it revealed a $10 million investment from Pro Medicus.

The investment is a hybrid debt and equity loan that includes security as collateral.

4D Medical says the funds will help it develop new products and its existing lung imaging product.

By Tom Richardson.

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NAB says rents are rising again

[13:12 pm] Bad news for tenants, but good news for property landlords as National Australia Bank has warned rental price growth jumped in July.

"This month’s dwelling coverage starts with rental trends given their importance in the Australian CPI basket," NAB said on Friday. "Rental growth in July was 0.4% m/m, with the pace of growth having picked up significantly since the 0.2% rates seen in late 2024.

"The pickup is occurring alongside vacancy rates that are edging lower and population growth that while slowing, is still very strong."

By Tom Richardson.

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Banks, tech drag shares lower

[13:00 pm] The interest rate sensitive banking and technology sectors are leading shares lower at Friday lunchtime.

CBA is down 1.4% to $175.45 per share, with NAB off 1.5% and Macquarie losing 1.6%.

The tech sector has dropped 1.5% as cloud accounting player Xero falls 2.4% to $176.46.

While market darling Life360 has retreated 1.5% to $39.57, but is still up nearly 75% in 2025 alone.

By Tom Richardson.

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Australian producer prices ease

[12:23 pm] Australian producer prices eased to 0.7% in the June quarter, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter and market expectations for a 0.9% increase.

"Annual and quarterly price growth continues to ease, with this being the lowest annual growth since September quarter 2021," noted the ABS report.

"The rise was largely driven by increased prices for residential rents received by Property operators. The pace of Property operators’ growth has slowed notably over the past year."

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ResMed gains on strong FY25 results

[11:15 am] ResMed opened flat despite reporting solid FY25 results that slightly exceeded market expectations. The delayed upward movement (currently up 3.3% to a record $43.88) is likely driven from the earnings call held just before market open, where the company highlighted:

• Gross margin guidance set at 61-63%, driven by cost optimisations and new product launches

• R&D expenses as a percentage of of revenue set at 6-7%

• Quarterly dividend to increase in FY26

• Plans to a significant increase in share repurchase activity in FY26

As noted earlier, Citi analysts forecasted FY26 gross margins at 59.8%, making ResMed’s midpoint guidance (62%) a massive 220 basis point beat.

ResMed intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Trump sets 10% minimum global tariff rate

[10:56 am] Trump has imposed a 10% global minimum tariff and 15% or higher duties on countries with large trade surpluses with the US, part of his broader push to reshape trade policy and revive domestic manufacturing.

Targeted countries face steep hikes:

• Canada hit with a 35% tariff, excluding goods under the USMCA.

• India: 25%

• Taiwan: 20%

• South Africa: 30%

• Thailand and Cambodia: 19%

• Switzerland: 39% — among the highest increases.

Most rates go into effect after midnight on August 7, allowing US customs time to implement changes.

China’s tariff truce expires on August 12, but recent talks in Stockholm were positive, and an extension appears likely, though not guaranteed.

Source: Bloomberg

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Small caps making moves

[10:45 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:38 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Perseus Mining CEO retires

[10:15 am] Perseus announced that long-serving CEO Jeff Quartermaine will retire after 12 years in the role, with his departure scheduled for 30 September 2025. He will continue supporting the company through a market-terms consultancy agreement following his retirement.

Craig Jones will succeed Quartermaine as CEO, joining Perseus on 18 August before officially assuming the role on 1 October. Jones previously served as global Chief Operating Officer at Newcrest.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

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UBS reiterates Buy on Flight Centre, cuts target price

[9:55 am] UBS retained a Buy rating on Flight Centre but cut its target price from $15.000 to $13.70. The stock tumbled 7.3% on Thursday after reporting weaker-than-expected preliminary numbers for FY25. Here are Citi's key takeaways:

• Ongoing Middle East disruptions and macro uncertainty are dragging on performance in 2H25, prompting downward revisions to FY26 expectations.

• FLT now expects underlying PBT of $285–295m, down from prior guidance of $300–335m. This implies a 2H25 decline of -19% YoY, driven by Asia weakness, global travel volatility, and lower US inbound bookings.

• FLT’s corporate business will deliver record TTV, but flat YoY, with strength in new contract wins ($1.3b vs $1b in FY24) and Corporate Traveller US TTV up +12% in 2H. However, corporate UPBT is down YoY, though up ex-Asia.

• FY25 EPS expected to fall 13% YoY, but EPS CAGR of +18% from FY26–28 driven by corporate momentum and business initiatives.

• FLT trades on 11.8x 1-year forward PE, well below its long-term average of 15.7x, implying the market is pricing in an overly negative outlook.

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Citi cuts Beach Energy target

[9:45 am] Citi has lowered its target price for Beach Energy from $1.15 to $1.05 after Thursday's trading update. Here are the key takeaways from the report:

• BPT is guiding to FY25 core EBITDA of $1,136m and core NPAT of $444m, which is 2% and 5% below consensus, respectively.

• First gas from Waitsia is expected in August, though commissioning delays remain a key execution risk.

• FY26 production forecast cut by ~6% to 22.2 mmboe (vs. 24 mmboe consensus) due to reserve downgrades at Beharra Springs and faster-than-expected decline at Otway.

• 2P reserve life remains short at ~7 years, prompting the view that M&A may be required to sustain long-term free cash flow.

• Initial wells have delivered strong flow rates, with a third well planned in FY26 — could provide medium-term upside if performance holds.

• A final dividend of 3.0cps is forecast, matching the interim but below BPT’s stated payout range, due to weaker near-term cash flow.

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Soul Patts extends dividend leadership

[9:35 am] Washington H. Soul Pattinson has declared a final dividend of 59 cents per share, taking total FY25 ordinary dividends to 103 cents and marking the 27th year of consecutive dividend increases.

The announcement also provided preliminary numbers for FY25, including:

• Net asset value (pre-tax) of $12.18-12.68bn vs. $11.8bn a year ago (up 5.3% at the midpoint)

• Net cash flow from investments of $485-535m vs. $468 a year ago (up 8.9% at the midpoint)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Soul Patts (SOL)

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Bellevue Gold provides FY26-27 guidance

[9:32 am] Bellevue's FY26-27 guidance was relatively in-line with Macquarie's forecasts (as at 29 July 2025). The key numbers include:

• FY26 gold production of 130-150koz vs. 150koz ests

• FY26 AISC between A$2,600-2,900/oz vs. A$2,677/oz ests

• FY27 target of 175-195koz per annum vs. 189.6koz ests

• Unit costs anticipated to reduce as the costs are averaged over the higher production base

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bellevue Gold (BGL)

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Novonix withdraws Axon Graphite IPO

[9:27 am] Novonix and Lithium Energy have abandoned plans to spin out their consolidated graphite assets through an IPO of Axon Graphite, citing prevailing market conditions.

The decision followed consultation with the IPO’s lead manager, suggesting insufficient market appetite for new listings in the battery materials or graphite space at this time.

The companies will not proceed with the Mt Dromedary Share Sale and Purchase Agreement, which would have seen Lithium Energy acquire the project adjacent to its Burke Graphite Deposit in Queensland.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Novonix (NVX)

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SKS Technologies tops FY25 profit guidance

[9:22 am] SKS Technologies reported preliminary FY25 profit before tax of $20.8 million or 15.6% above its $18 million guidance provided to the market in May 2025.

"The FY25 result is an increase of more than threefold on the $6.5 million achieved in FY24," the company said in a statement.

Revenue of $259.5 million was in-line with the $260 million guidance and up 90% year-on-year. Profit before tax margin also increased to 8.0% vs. the most recent guidance of 7.2%.

The company's cash balance has already increased by 10x since the beginning of the year to $32.5 million.

“The Company begins FY26 with an opening record work on hand position of approximately $200 million and a pipeline of tendered work in excess of $500 million, that continues to offer a large and diverse range of opportunities across all markets," said CEO Matthew Jinks.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: SKS Technologies (SKS)

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ResMed earnings call highlights

[9:15 am] ResMed just wrapped up their Q4 earnings call. Here are some of my key takeaways:

• International device growth of 10% across Europe, Asia, and rest of world, though expected to moderate to mid-single digits going forward.

• US mask growth accelerated through product innovation and enhanced resupply strategies, with minimal impact from competitive bidding given mature HME provider infrastructure.

• Gross margin expansion driven by operational efficiency gains and favorable FX movements, with currency accounting for approximately half the improvement.

• VirtuOx acquisition supports broader strategic push to strengthen home sleep apnea testing capabilities within the digital health ecosystem.

In terms of FY26 guidance, management noted:

• Gross margin guidance set at 61-63%, driven by cost optimisations and new product launches

• R&D expenses as a percentage of of revenue set at 6-7%

• Quarterly dividend to increase in FY26

• Plans to a significant increase in share repurchase activity in FY26

Interestingly, Citi analysts guided to gross margins of 59.8% in FY26. Could this guidance be a driver of upside today?

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ResMed reports solid Q4 and FY25 numbers

[9:10 am] ResMed's fourth quarter result was broadly ahead of market expectations, while numbers for FY25 also slightly ahead of most analyst forecasts. For the full-year, the company reported (vs. Citi ests):

• Revenue up 10% to $5.14 billion vs. $5.15 billion ests (0.1% miss)

• Gross margin up 270 bps to 59.4% vs. 59.4% ests (in-line)

• Net income up 37% to $1.40 billion vs. $1.37 billion ests (2.1% beat)

• Earnings per share up 37% to $9.51 vs. $9.49 ests (+0.2% beat)

• Quarterly dividend up 13% to 60 cents per share

• Full-year dividend up 11% to 219 cents per share vs. 219 cents ests (in-line)

"We expect the consensus beats, particularly at the gross margin level to be well taken by the market and expect the stock to outperform today," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Craig Wong-Pan.

Its worth noting that NYSE-listed ResMed shares slipped 1.4% after hours. The stock has rallied around 6% in the past month amid a broad rotation into the undervalued healthcare sector. Healthcare was also the worst performing S&P 500 sector overnight (-2.79%) as Trump is reportedly releasing letters to major pharmaceutical companies demanding pricing shifts and other changes in the next 60 days. While not directly impacting ResMed's business, the regulatory pressure may be creating headwinds for healthcare sector sentiment more broadly.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: ResMed (RMD)

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Trump tariffs: South Korea, India and big pharma

[9:05 am] Lots of tariff headline volatility overnight as we approach the 1-Aug deadline. Here are the key overnight developments:

• Trump administration is preparing letters for countries without deals

• Trump says Mexico is getting a 90-day extension due to related work on US border dynamics

• Trump threatens India with surprise 25% tariff, Indian government remains keen to keep bilateral trade talks on track and exploring ways to increase purchases from its largest trading partner

• US reached a trade deal with South Korea, which includes a 15% tariff rate on imports and plans for major Korean investments in the US

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Amazon shares tank as guidance misses expectations

[8:56 am] Amazon reported a strong Q2 result but Q3 guidance and AWS margins fell short of market expectations. The stock is currently down 6.6% in extended trading.

Here are the key numbers for Q2:

• Sales up 13% YoY to $167.7bn (Est. $162.15bn, +3.4% beat)

• EPS to $1.68 (Est. $1.33, +26.3% beat)

• Operating Income to $19.2bn (Est. $16.77bn, +14.5% beat)

• AWS Net Sales up 17.5% YoY to $30.87bn (Est. $30.77bn, +0.3% beat)

• AWS margin declined to 32.9% from 39.5% in the previous quarter

For the third quarter, Amazon guided:

• Sales between $174-179.5bn (vs. $173.2bn ests or a 2.0% beat at the midpoint)

• Operating income between $15.5-20.5bn (vs. $19bn ests or a 5.3% miss at the midpoint)

Notable comments from management include:

• "But what we can share is what we've seen thus far, which is that through the first half of the year, we haven't yet seen diminishing demand, nor prices meaningfully appreciating."

• "We did see AWS segment margins decline from a record high of 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2. The largest quarter-over-quarter driver of the decrease — accounting for about half — is due to the seasonal step-up in stock-based compensation expense, driven by the timing of our annual compensation cycle."

• “Our conviction that AI will change every customer experience is starting to play out as we’ve expanded Alexa+ to millions of customers, continue to see our shopping agent used by many millions of customers, launched AI models like DeepFleet that optimize productivity paths for our 1M+ robots ..."

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Apple tops quarterly earnings estimates

[8:53 am] Apple just released its Q3 earnings, which broadly topped market expectations. The stock is currently up around 2.0% in extended trading. Here are the key highlights:

• Revenue up 10% YoY to $94.04bn (Est. $89.53bn, +5.0% beat)

• EPS up 12% YoY to $1.57 (Est. $1.43, +9.8% beat)

• Greater China up 4% YoY to $15.37bn (Est. $15.19bn, +1.2% beat)

Segment Revenue:

• iPhone up 13% YoY to $44.58bn (Est. $40.06bn, +11.3% beat)

• Mac up 15% YoY to $8.05bn (Est. $7.3bn, +10.3% beat)

• iPad down 8% YoY to $6.58bn (Est. $7.07bn, -7.0% miss)

• Wearables, Home & Accessories down 9% YoY to $7.40bn (Est. $7.78bn, -4.9% miss)

• Services up 13% YoY to $27.42B (No est. provided, All-time high)

• Products to $66.61bn (Est. $62.36bn, +6.8% beat)

Notable comments from management include:

• “We see AI as one of the most profound technologies of our lifetime, and we are significantly growing our investments.”

• “Double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and Services, and growth in every geographic segment.”

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S&P 500 fades a strong start

[8:45 am] The S&P 500 (-0.37%) rallied as much as 1.01% overnight, only to give back the entirety of early gains, closing near session lows.

The move was largely driven by some heavy declines from sectors like Healthcare (-2.7%), Real Estate (-1.7%) and Materials (-0.9%). Microsoft also faded an 8.1% rally, closing the session 3.9% higher.

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 64pts (-0.74%) after a weak lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 faded a 1.0% rally to close 0.37% lower.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.