Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower despite Meta and Microsoft gains, Figma IPO surges 250%

ASX 200 futures are down 64pts (-0.74%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks opened sharply higher, only to give back early gains and finish red

• Strong earnings and gains from Meta and Microsoft unable to offset broader tech and sector weakness

• Figma makes its US debut, with the stock closing at $115 vs. IPO offer price of just $33 a piece

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded a 1.0% gain to finish lower (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks faded early strength to close broadly lower

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied as much as 1.0% and 1.5% in early trade, only to finish the session slightly lower

• Breadth was relatively poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the official benchmark by 47 bps

• Earnings-driven gains from Meta (+11.2%) and Microsoft (+3.9%) offset by weakness from Tesla (-3.3%), Broadcom (-2.9%), Alphabet (-2.3%)

• US monthly recap: Nasdaq (+3.70%), S&P 500 (+2.17%), Russell 2000 (+1.68%) and Dow (+0.08%)

• Trump administration says they’re preparing letters for countries without deals, also planning letters to major pharmaceutical companies demanding pricing shifts

• Figma more than triples in NYSE debut after $33 IPO, closed at $115 and up more than 20% in after hours (TC)

• Bank of America suggests a "W trade" to hedge against potential August market volatility, historically a turbulent month (BBG)

• India's rupee fell near a record low as Trump's tariffs threaten economic growth (RT)

EARNINGS

• eBay (+18.3%) forecasts Q3 revenue above expectations, driven by strong US demand despite European challenges (CNBC)

• Meta (+11.2%) guidance tops expectations, GenAI driving meaningful ad revenue growth, tweaks capex guidance slightly higher (BBG)

• Microsoft (+3.9%) Azure's revenue growth exceeded expectations due to strong AI demand, guiding record capex (BBG)

• Ford (+1.8%) Q2 earnings beat but company flagged $800m tariff hit (YF)

• Shell's (+0.9%) Q2 profit fell nearly a third due to lower oil prices, but exceeded still ahead of low consensus, keeps pace of share buybacks (RT)

• Samsung's (-1.6%) operating profit sharply declined on HBM delays and US export controls, affecting its chip unit (BBG)

• Robinhood (-2.8%) Q2 revenue beats estimates, aided by strong crypto trading (BBG)

• Qualcomm (-7.7%) exceeded earnings expectations, but concerns grow over potential Apple departure (BBG)

• Arm Holdings (-13.4%) shares slide after disappointing forecasts and plans to invest profits in chip development (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ on hold, raises inflation forecasts while reiterating that trade-related uncertainties remain high (BBG)

• BoE expected to cut rates to 4% from 4.25% on 7-Aug amid inflation and job market concerns (RT)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump to sign executive orders on Friday stipulating tariff rates on several countries yet to reach trade deal (BBG)

• US and Mexico agree to extend trade negotiations for 90 days, though Mexico to continue paying 25% fentanyl tariff (CNBC)

• Trump says it would be "very hard" to make a trade deal with Canada if it recognises a Palestinian state (WP)

• Trump announces trade deal with South Korea, establishing 15% tariff rate and pledges for US$350bn in investment and US$100bn in energy purchases (BBG)

• Trump's 25% tariff on India shocks trade officials working on a US-India deal, prompting swift responses from Delhi, could cut nation’s GDP growth in 2025-26 by 40 bps (BBG)

• Taiwan and US drafting a joint statement on their trade deal, nearing progress before Trump's tariff deadline (BBG)

• Malaysia and the US set to announce a trade tariff rate below 20% after talks (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US core PCE up 0.3% month-on-month, in-line with consensus, marking the steepest increase since Feb-25, annualised core PCE up 2.8% vs. 2.7% consensus (BBG)

• China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly softens to 49.3 in July vs. 49.7 ests, non-manufacturing activity remains largely flat (BBG)

• Taiwan's GDP surged 7.96% year-on-year in Q2, driven by record exports amid a global AI boom (BBG)

• French inflation remained stable at 0.9% in July, below the ECB's 2% target, supporting potential interest rate cuts (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Beach Energy CEO says they are reading to pursue acquisitions, despite shares tumbling after ~$500m impairment earlier this week (AFR)

• Capstone Copper reports in-line Q2 revenue and EPS, reaffirms 2025 guidance of 220-255,000 tonnes of copper production (CSC)

• HMC Capital may look to sell down stake in HomeCo Daily Needs REIT amid ‘signs of pressure’ ahead of first payment for acquisition of Neoen business (The Aus)

• Regis Healthcare co-founder Bryan Dorman cuts holding from 16.4% to 10.7% (REG)

• ResMed reports EPS growth of 37%, quarterly dividend up 13% to 60 cents per share (RMD)

• SKS Technologies Group reports preliminary full-year profit before tax of $20.8m vs. guidance of at least $18m (SKS)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Pullback dynamics: Pretty heavy overnight session (nine out of eleven US sectors lower), and fading price action. Lots of headlines around trade/tariffs ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline as well as hawkish takeaways from the Fed and last night's PCE data, which has dampened rate cut expectations. The ASX has shown resilience against broader market selloffs (even yesterday it closed 0.16% lower vs. session low of -0.63%). Let's see where things settle.

BROKER MOVES

• Life360 initiated Buy with US$90 target for US-listed shares (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 1 Aug: Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.033, La Trobe Private Credit Fund (LF1) – $0.012

• Mon 4 Aug: None

• Tue 5 Aug: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.195, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04

• Wed 6 Aug: None

• Thu 7 Aug: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.083

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Credit Intelligence (CI1)

• Earnings: ResMed (RMD)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia PPI (Q2)

• 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (Jul)

• 10:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Jul)

• 12:00 am: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)