Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq slips on Nvidia's 5% tumble

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher but well off best levels

• Dow (+0.51%) outperformed and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) eked out a record close, but a 5% tumble for Nvidia and a record CDS spike dragged the Nasdaq lower

• A third night without US strikes on Iran triggered a cross-asset relief rally, sending most commodities higher and easing the US 10-year yield from a one-and-a-half year high

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher but gave back early gains, with the S&P 500 up as much as 0.93% in early trade

• Oil, bonds, stocks and gold higher as the US and Iran refrained from further strikes, with Brent falling 13.5% to US$85.35

• Breadth was widely positive, with seven sectors higher, Dow (+0.51%) was trading at a session high of 1.27% and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) outperformed the cap-weighted index by 73 bps

• VIX closed at 18.68, fractionally higher as the relief rally failed to compress implied volatility further (YF)

• Uneasy market mood builds as stocks face tests from tech earnings and FOMC this week (WSJ)

• Nvidia's five-year credit default swaps surged the most on record, rising as much as 0.14 pp to around 0.82%, on reports of more than US$750bn of AI infrastructure deal talks (BBG)

• Chinese memory maker CXMT jumped 466% on debut after raising 57.92bn yuan (US$8.6bn) in Asia's largest IPO of 2026 (BBG)

• Hedge funds bets on healthcare stocks hit five-year high amid enthusiasm for AI-powered drug discovery (RT)

• Trump said the US halted strikes on Iran at Tehran's request, adding he has "plenty of time" for talks but warned strikes would resume with greater force if negotiations fail (CNN)

• Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran has no negotiations under way with the US, with official talks limited to Oman on the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)

• Saudi Arabia's defence ministry said it intercepted several drones launched from Iraq at petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and the Riyadh region (CNN)

• Mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan have made significant progress toward restoring an interim US-Iran ceasefire, two regional officials said (AP)

• Nvidia fell 5%, its largest one-day drop since Feb-26, as circular-financing concerns around its AI infrastructure commitments resurfaced (YF) 

• Nvidia is in talks to provide a guarantee of as much as US$250bn to help OpenAI lease computing from a data centre project in southern Ohio (AX)

• ASML slumped 5.8%after a report China has begun manufacturing its own immersion DUV lithography machines (RT)

• SanDisk fell 11% to its lowest since early May as CXMT's Shanghai listing sharpened competitive fears across memory (TK)

• Qualcomm plans double-digit chip price increase from September amid smartphone and memory shortage (DT)

• LVMH 1H26: net profit flat at €5.70bn, roughly 9% ahead €5.22bn ests, key fashion and leather goods unit eked out sales growth last quarter, shares up 1.1% (BBG)

• Porsche to cut around one in five ⁠jobs by 2035 (CNBC)

• China's commerce ministry urged Washington to fully remove the new Section 301 "forced labour" tariffs, calling them a textbook act of unilateralism and protectionism (SCMP)

• Beijing signalled it will hold off on retaliation, noting the 12.5% duty keeps the US within the 20% ceiling promised in earlier bilateral talks (SCMP)

• China has begun producing domestically developed 193-nanometre immersion DUV lithography systems, with first machines expected to ship this year to SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT (YF)

• Markets priced ~60% chance the Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% on Thursday, with the balance betting on a hike to 3.75-4.00% (MS) 

• Bank of Japan is likely to hold its policy rate at a 31-year high of 1% this week to assess the effect of last month's increase (NP)

• US durable goods orders rose 0.3% month-on-month in June to US$334.8bn, well short of the 1.7% consensus (RTT) 

• Germany's Ifo business climate index rose to a five-month high of 86.6 in July from an upwardly revised 85.7, beating 86.0 consensus (RT)

• China's industrial profits rose 15.1% year-on-year in June, slowing for a second straight month from May's 21.1% as easing energy prices sapped the earnings lift (CNBC)  

• ClearView Wealth holders vote in favour of the proposed acquisition by Zurich, with the scheme expected to be implemented 20-Aug (CVW)

• CSL reports positive top-line Ph3B results for ANDEMBRY (garadacimab-gxii) in HAE patients aged 2-11, with the majority of the 22 participants attack-free across the 12-month treatment period and safety consistent with prior studies. Plans to begin regulatory filings for the expanded paediatric indication in H1 FY27 (CSL)

• Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp flagged as potential Tokio Marine acquisition targets, after the Japanese insurer's president told the Nikkei last month it intends to pursue M&A in Australia, Canada and elsewhere (The Aus)

• Macquarie Group looks set to exit US data centre operator Netrality, with TPG Inc in exclusive talks to acquire the Macquarie-backed business at a valuation of US$2-3bn and a deal possibly finalised as soon as Q4 (BBG)

• Rio Tinto enters a non-binding agreement to sell its JV shares in the Dampier Seawater Desalination Plant to Yindjibarndi WaterCo, matched by a similar agreement from the WA Government. Terms confidential and a binding deal targeted by year-end, with Rio to manage construction of the $1.1bn plant before operational control transfers (RIO)

• ALS upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $26.10 from $21.50 (JPMorgan)

• Centuria Capital upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target lowered to $2.11 from $2.34 (JPMorgan)

• Charter Hall Retail REIT upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $4.30 from $3.82 (JPMorgan)

• HomeCo Daily Needs REIT downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $1.35 from $1.40 (JPMorgan)

• Lotus Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.25 from $1.30 (Macquarie)

• Woolworths downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target unch at $37.00 (Goldman Sachs)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 28 Jul: None

• Wed 29 Jul: None

• Thu 30 Jul: KKR Credit Income (KKC) – $0.017, Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.095

• Fri 31 Jul: Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.125 

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Korvest (KOV)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: ALS (ALQ) 

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.