Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, US markets closed for Presidents Day, Gold prices back below US$5,000
ASX 200 futures are up 15 pts (+0.16%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
ASX 200 futures are up 15 pts (+0.16%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
In a nutshell:
US market closed for Presidents Day (I’m still apologising for that time a few weeks ago where I didn’t notice that the US market was closed)
S&P 500 futures (+0.05%) relatively flat, Nasdaq and Russell futures (both down 0.2-0.3%) slightly lower
European markets finished mostly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.13%, closing within 0.5% of last Wednesday's record close
A relatively busy day for 1H26 results, with notable reporters including RWC, CGF, JDO, BBN and DRR
Let's dive in.
Overnight Summary
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
 S&P 500 | 6,836 | +0.05% |
Dow Jones | 49,501 | +0.10% |
NASDAQ Comp | 22,547 | -0.22% |
Russell 2000 | 2,647 | +1.18% |
Country Indices | ||
 Canada | 33,074 | +1.87% |
 China | 4,082 | -1.26% |
 Germany | 24,801 | -0.46% |
 Hong Kong | 26,706 | +0.52% |
 India | 83,277 | +0.79% |
 Japan | 56,806 | -0.24% |
 United Kingdom | 10,474 | +0.26% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | ||
 Gold | 4,990.63 | -1.06% |
 Copper | 5.7645 | -0.66% |
 WTI Oil | 63.7979 | +1.44% |
Currency | ||
 AUD/USD | 0.7074 | +0.02% |
Cryptocurrency | ||
 Bitcoin (USD) | 68,420 | -0.18% |
 Ethereum (AUD) | 2,813 | +1.91% |
Miscellaneous | ||
US 10 Yr T-bond | 4.056 | 0.00% |
VIX | 21.2 | +1.83% |
STOXX 600 SESSION CHART
The Pan-European index finished slightly higher, in a relatively rangebound session (Source: TradingView)
OVERNIGHT MARKETS
Major US benchmarks closed for President’s Day, S&P 500 futures flat
European markets finished mostly higher as investors digested takeaways from the Munich Security Conference
Pan-European Stoxx 600 (+0.13%) within 0.5% of last Wednesday’s record close, other notable indices include IBEX (+0.99%), FTSE 100 (+0.26%), CAC 40 (+0.06%) and DAX -0.46%
Munich conference saw several European leaders reiterate the need for greater defence spending, Ukraine’s Zelensky said his country would be ready to join the EU by 2027
Bitcoin slipped 0.6% to US$68k, US Dollar Index marginally higher
Trump fuels heightened event risk and market volatility in 2026 (WSJ)
Fund beating 99% of peers sees few software firms surviving AI (BBG)
European Q4 earnings growth accelerates to 3.9%, beating expectations, but valuations cap upside amid investor caution (RT)
Soaring gold prices push some vault operators to reduce insurance cover or self-insure (FT)
Alibaba leads Chinese tech selloff after brief Pentagon military list inclusion (BBG)
STOCKS
Anthropic embeds AI coding agent in Indian firms like Air India and Cognizant (BBG)
Alibaba launches Qwen-3.5 AI model to intensify global race (SCMP)
Warner Bros Discovery considers re-opening Paramount sale talks after amended offer (BBG)
Volkswagen plans 20% cost cuts across brands by 2028 to restore sustainable returns amid China slump and US tariffs (RT)
Volkswagen ordered to face criminal trial in France over decade-old diesel emissions scandal (BBG)
Record CEO turnover in US public companies brings younger, less experienced leaders (WSJ)
Macquarie-led group to buy Qube for $11.7bn (BBG)
Fatal incident at Rio Tinto's Simandou iron ore project in Guinea prompts safety review and site suspension (RT)
EU cross-border bank mergers reach highest level since the GFC, driven by rising profits and consolidation needs (FT)
CENTRAL BANKS
Race to succeed Lagarde at ECB gains urgency as French political risks prompt calls for early succession (BBG)
BoE's Mann links sharp minimum wage rises to rising youth unemployment (RT)
GEOPOLITICS
US-Taiwan trade deal aligns tariffs but excludes chips amid $250bn TSMC investment puzzle (FT)
Munich Security Conference highlights fractured transatlantic alliance despite US efforts to soften rhetoric (WSJ)
Rubio visits Slovakia and Hungary to strengthen ties with pro-Trump governments in central Europe (F24)
Canada defence strategy to create 125,000 jobs and reduce US reliance (GN)
UK PM Starmer mulls accelerating defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029 (BBC)
Netanyahu proposes Iran de-escalation terms limiting nuclear and missile capabilities (BBG)
Trump announces at least $5bn pledges for Gaza humanitarian and reconstruction efforts (BBG)
Australia and EU near breakthrough on stalled free trade deal after progress on beef, cheese, and car tax disputes (GD)
ECONOMY
US economy shows soft-landing progress with cooling inflation and stable jobs (WJS)
Switzerland GDP rebounds 0.2% in Q4, partially shaking off outsized US tariff impacts (BBG)
Japan Q4 GDP grows 0.2% on an annualised basis in Q4, well-below expectations of 1.6% growth, largely driven by muted consumer spending (BBG)
ASX TODAY
A fairly busy day for corporate earnings. We’ll be moving the usual coverage from here, to the Live Blog. I’ll try to cover as many 1H26 results as possible before market open.
Praemium restructures technology division, anticipated Australia headcount reduction of ~15%, overall annual technology salary budget expected to reduce by ~$9m (PPS)
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
Not a whole lot after a relatively quiet overnight session. Seeing some rather extreme positioning out there, including US Technology ETF short interest at 1.8% (highest in over six years), net shorts in Nymex WTI crude futures nearing last October's eight-year high and US dollar positioning at the most negative in over 14 years.
BROKER MOVES
Audinate Group upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target down to $3.20 from $4.30 (MQG)
Aurizon Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target up to $3.80 from $3.55 (GS)
Aurizon Holdings downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target up to $3.50 from $3.25 (UBS)
GPT Group upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $5.70 from $5.55 (MQG)
GWA Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target down to $2.65 from $2.90 (MQG)
JB Hi-Fi upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target unchanged at $94.00 (UBS)
New Hope downgraded to Sell from Buy; target up to $4.10 from $4.00 (BP)
Stockland upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target down to $5.42 from $5.45 (MQG)
Key Events
Stocks trading ex-dividend:
Tue 17 Feb: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.102, Computershare (CPU) – $0.55, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.12, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.013
Wed 18 Feb: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – $2.35, ECP Emerging Growth (ECP) – $0.024, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.036, Regal Partners Global Investments (RG1) – $0.06
Thu 19 Feb: Teaminvest Private Group (TIP) – $0.015
Fri 20 Feb: ASX (ASX) – $1.018, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.023, Regal Asian Investments (RG8) – $0.08
Other ASX corporate actions today:
Dividends paid: None
Earnings: BHP Group (BHP), Baby Bunting (BBN), Challenger (CGF), Judo Capital (JDO), Kinatico (KYP), Macmahon (MAH), MLG Oz (MLG), Reliance Worldwide (RWC), Seek (SEK), Sims (SGM), Smart Parking (SPZ), SRG Global (SRG)
IPOs: None
AGMs: Select Harvests (SHV)
Economic calendar (AEDT):
11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes
6:00 pm: UK Unemployment (Dec)
12:30 am: Canada Inflation (JAN)
