Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 snaps a three-day losing streak, Copper prices surge

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks snapped a three-day losing streak as semiconductors led a relatively broad rebound

• Chip names like Micron, Intel and AMD rallied 8-12%, while better-than-expected earnings from General Motors and 3M drove broader buying appetite

• Trump imposed new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods while fresh US strikes on Iran pushed Brent ~3% higher to US$91.63 a barrel

• Gold bounced 1.7% to US$4,079/oz, while copper soared 2.97% to US$6.56/lb on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels

• Semiconductors led the advance as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 4.5%, with notable gains from Micron (+12.1%), Intel (+8.6%) AMD (+8.1%) and Nvidia (+1.9%) 

• Breadth was a little soft, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.16%) underperforming the cap-weighted benchmark by 73 bps

• Copper soared 2.9% to US$6.56/lb, now within ~2% of its 2-Jun record high, supported by strong Chinese buying and tight supply from disruptions across Chile and Peru  

• Q2 earnings growth expectations have climbed to about 25%, but the pace may be near an inflection point with the strongest gains likely behind, says CFRA’s Stovall  (CNBC) 

• China expands state support for tech ETFs amid positive stock market PR offensive (BBG)

• South Korean investors cut leveraged positions to three-month low after memory-chip losses stall the market's rally (BBG)

• US military carried out fresh strikes against Iran on Tuesday, with Iranian state media reporting explosions in several locations and President Pezeshkian saying the country is engaged in a full-scale war (TS)

• Regional mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran aimed at reviving negotiations, though US officials downplayed the prospect of Trump accepting it (CNN)

• Intelligence agencies say Iran won't soften after US strikes (WP)

• Trump says US not interested in meeting until Iran is serious, says heavy strike on Pickaxe Mountain could come soon (AX)

• Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges inside Pickaxe Mountain last fall (WSJ)

• Yemen's Houthis threatened a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, with Rystad Energy estimating the move puts about 2.5m barrels a day of Saudi oil at risk (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs warns Middle East war and Hormuz disruptions could push Brent oil to US$120 by Q4 (BBG)

• General Motors Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $3.57, ~12% ahead of ests, revenue up 1.9% to $48bn, automaker raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $12-14, shares up 4.9% (CNBC)

• 3M Q2 2026 GAAP EPS $1.78, up 33% year-on-year, with adjusted organic sales up 5.4% and operating margins near 25%, prompting guidance upgrade, shares up 7.3% (3M)

• MSCI shares dropped 10.7% after the index and analytics provider missed Wall Street second-quarter earnings expectations (TS)

• Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in AI cloud provider Nebius Group, sending Nebius shares 18.7% higher (CNBC)

• TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027 (NK)

• Oracle's default risk protection hits multi-year high as bonds sell off over AI investment payoff doubts (BBG)

• SpaceX sets first earnings report for 4-Aug, at which point investors can sell up to 20% of any locked-up shares (CNBC)

• Trump signed proclamations imposing new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods including wine, cement, dairy and textiles, with the levies due to take effect on 19 August (CNN)

• New duties cover about 5% of Canada's exports to the US, worth roughly US$20bn a year, and apply even to goods that trade tariff-free under the USMCA pact (CNN)

• Trump signs proclamation adjusting aluminum imports and offering US smelter investment incentives (RT)

• China said to be considering tighter export controls on AI models and chips to limit Western access (FT)

• Trump signs order to map China-linked critical mineral supply chains to protect national security (BBG)

• China's cabinet pledges to hit full-year growth target and press on with policies after Q2 miss (BBG)

• ZEW German economic sentiment jumps to 26.3 in July, biggest rise in over a year (BBG)

• AMP has hired an adviser to explore a potential sale of its banking division, though the AFR reports the process hasn't formally started and there are no active buyers yet (AMP)

• Argosy Minerals reports successful Rincon pilot testwork, concentrating lithium brine ~4-6x to a target 4-5wt% lithium under stable operating conditions, generating engineering and operating data to support DFS design (AGY)

• Cyprium Metals holder KBP Investments Asia lifts stake to 10.45% from 9.23% (CYM)

• KMD Brands guides FY26 sales of $1.0-1.04bn (up 5% at midpoint) and underlying EBITDA of $38-41m (up 123%), with Kathmandu H2 same-store sales +4.8% and Rip Curl -2.8%. Net debt seen at $63-66m vs $52.8m a year ago. Will divest its SE Asian manufacturing facility over 12 months, unlocking ~$5-7m proceeds plus ~$6m working capital (KMD)

• Wesfarmers and JV partner SQM approve FID for the Mt Holland lithium project expansion, adding a second concentrator with construction from H2 CY27 and first spodumene concentrate in H1 CY30. Wesfarmers' share of capex estimated at $645-715m (WES)

• Copper: A very strong overnight session for copper (+2.97% to US$6.56/lb), closing at a 5-week high and within ~2% of all-time highs. The Global X Copper Miners ETF rallied 5.9% overnight but still trades ~16% below its 2-Jun high. Like we noted in yesterday’s Morning Wrap, copper equities have been quite reluctant to reflect the recent resilience of copper prices, likely tied to the rising oil price backdrop, weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth and a firm US dollar. Local names started to pick up on the copper price strength on Tuesday, with Sandfire (+2.4%), Capstone (+3.7%) and BHP (+1.3%) all reversing earlier declines to close at session highs.

• Commodities: Most commodities bounced overnight, with notable gains for silver (+4.1% to US$58.79/oz) and gold (+1.7% to US$4,079/oz). US-listed resource-related ETFs traded broadly higher, with the Global X Silver Miners, VanEck Gold Miners, Global X Uranium and VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF all up 3-5%.

• Orora upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target unchanged at $1.55 (JPMorgan)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 22 Jul: None

• Thu 23 Jul: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006

• Fri 24 Jul: None

• Mon 27 Jul: None

• Tue 28 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Alkane Resources (ALK)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation