Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 posts back-to-back gains + Evolution, Hub24 quarterlies

ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks continued to march higher on tariff exemptions, bond yield stabilisation and easing volatility

• Morgan Stanley and Citi cut their 2025 S&P 500 earnings forecasts and year-end targets to reflect tariff headwinds

• Collins Foods announces major strategic review, Evolution Q3 report highlights massive cash flows

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US stocks up three of the last four sessions, gains continued overnight but benchmarks finished off best levels

• Market continues to bounce off a number of tailwinds – i) tariff exemption for electronics; ii) bond yield stabilisation, with US 10-year cooling from 4.5%; iii) accommodative sentiment and positioning dynamics, with VIX pulling back

• Overall positioning currently sits at the lowest levels since Covid, according to Goldman Sachs 

• Morgan Stanley and Citi cut 2025 S&P 500 earnings estimates and year-end targets on tariff headwinds (BBG)

• Retail investors are still buying leveraged ETFs despite volatile (BBG)

• Global pension funds retreat from US assets as Trump tariffs threats trigger capital flight and liquidity strains (FT)

• Dollar hedging demand hits 5-year high as Trump tariffs weaken greenback's haven status (BBG)

• OPEC cuts oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 as tariffs weigh on global economic growth (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Goldman Sachs first-quarter revenue and earnings ahead, equity-trading revenue surged 27% to a record $4.19bn thanks to broader market volatility (BBG)

• Nvidia investing $500bn over next four years to boost US manufacturing (CNBC)

• LVMH announced a 3% drop in its sales, driven by challenges in its main business as consumers face tougher economic conditions (BBG)

• Over 60% of CEOs anticipate a recession within the next month, citing growing concerns over the impact of tariffs (CNBC)

• Meta is undergoing a significant antitrust trial regarding its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, with the FTC pushing for a breakup while navigating political pressures from the Trump era (BBC)

• DHL’s CEO warns of increasing corporate exhaustion due to the unpredictability of Trump’s tariff policies (BBG)

• Sony raised PS5 prices by 25% in Europe and the UK due to Trump’s tariffs, hinting at a potential increase in the US as inflation pressures mount (BBG)

• TSMC is expecting a 54% profit increase in Q1, fueled by the AI boom (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Kashkari expressed confidence that market will remain orderly, reiterated Fed's inflation focus, US trade and fiscal policy will determine the direction of US 10-year yields (BBG)

• BoJ mulls May pause if yen hits 130 says Goldman (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Market is skeptical that Trump can cut ~90 trade deals in 90 days (RT)

• Trump exploring exemption on imported vehicles and parts to give auto companies more time to set up US manufacturing (BBG)

• Healthcare sector and local government construction projects most vulnerable to tariffs, investors may demand higher yields to account for the risk (BBG)

• China President Xi kicks of Southeast Asia trip, seen as an attempt to form alliances against the US (BBG)

• EU revives LNG talks to ease trade tensions amid tariff pause (PLT)

ECONOMY

• China's exports surged 12.4% n March, driven by a frontloading of shipments ahead of US tariff hikes (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Collins Foods announces strategic review, highlights continued focus on new restaurant openings in Australia, accelerate Germany expansion with 40-70 new KFC stores over the next five years and review/optimise Netherlands portfolio (CKF)

• Dyno Nobel's fertiliser asset sale process extended in an attempt to give suitors more time amid volatile market conditions (The Aus)

• Evolution Mining reports 3Q25 report, highlights record net mine cash flow of $303m (up 15% QoQ), cash balance up $141m to $661m, reaffirmed FY25 guidance (EVN)

• Fenix Resources reports record 3Q25 iron ore shipments, reaffirms plans to triple production rate in 2025 (FEX)

• Hub24 reports 3Q25 net inflows of $4.9bn (up 4% QoQ), total FUA reached $124.1bn (up 24% on pcp) (HUB)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Not a whole lot: A relatively uneventful trading day so far. Market is poised to tick higher as the relief rally continues. Tariff headline volatility remains high, with market expecting further exemption and de-escalation (ex-China).

• Gold miners are printing cash: Evolution is being a bit humble as it does not show the year-on-year change in net mine cash flow, which is about a 255% increase. Gearing has also fallen significantly to 19% from 28% a year ago. While this is arguably already priced in, its interesting to see just how much can change in a year.

• Hub24 outperformance: Hub24 experienced a massive fade last Thursday (open +19.3%, close +11.8%). This largely reflected a poor quarterly from Netwealth, which reported Q3 FUA of $104.0bn (up 2.4% QoQ), which missed consensus of $105.7bn and down from a 18-Feb update which noted $105.4bn in FUA. Hub's Q3 growth rate does appear stronger, so it will be interesting to see if it can show some strength today

BROKER MOVES

• Whitehaven Coal downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $5.15 from $9.40 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 15 Apr: SDI (SDI) – $0.015, WAM Research (WAX) – $0.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company (SOL) – $0.44, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07

• Wed 16 Apr: Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015, The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.12, WAM Capital (WAM) – $0.077

• Thu 17 Apr: None

• Fri 18 Apr: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Chorus (CNU), Garda Property Group (GDF), HUB24 (HUB), Kina Securities (KSL), Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Listing: None 

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes

• 4:00 pm: UK Unemployment (FEB)

• 10:30 pm: Canada Inflation Rate (MAR)