Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs, Gold eyes US$4,000

ASX 200 futures are up 10pts (+0.11%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Another record session session for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000

• Dow lagged as defensive sectors like Healthcare and Real Estate finished lower

• Gold prices hit another fresh all-time high and closed just shy of US$4,000

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, slightly off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closing at fresh all-time highs

• Growth-led session, with defensives (Real Estate, Staples, Healthcare and Financials) broadly lower

• Weak breadth, with Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.03%) underperforming the official benchmark by 39 bps

• Another other-worldly session for gold, closing just shy of US$4,000

• Today’s big story: AMD shares rallied 23% after OpenAI announced a 10% stake in the chipmaker and plans to deploy 6GW of AMD GPUs

• Path of least resistance remains tilted towards the upside amid solid Fed easing outlook, solid US economic backdrop, M&A tailwinds and AI optimism, seasonality

• Treasury traders turning to betting markets to gauge government shutdown duration (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley see Treasury buying opportunity if sold off in near-term, citing weakening labour market (BBG)

• Bitcoin traders boost bets for $140,000 level by year-end (BBG)

• Traders least bullish on Japanese yen in more than three years after Takaichi's victory (BBG)

• Three companies to IPO in London after dismal start to the year (BBG)

• Japan shares hit record high as Takaichi's likely win boosts hopes for Abenomics-style stimulus (NYT)

• Japan's bond market faces challenges under Takaichi, likely leading to higher long-term yields amid her pro-growth agenda (CNBC)

• Barclays' Equity Timing Indicator suggests 82% chance of gains for the S&P 500 over the next two months (BBG)

• French debt premiums over German bonds hit nine-month high as concerns grow over President Macron's new cabinet (BBG)

STOCKS

• Fifth Third to purchase Comerica in $10.9bn all-stock deal (FT)

• Tesla's teaser video hints at a possible launch of the next-gen Roadster or a mass-market model at Tuesday's event (CNBC)

• OpenAI's Sam Altman is raising funds in East Asia and the Middle East to boost AI chip production capacity (RT)

• OpenAI has agreed to buy tens of billions of dollars of AMD's upcoming MI450 AI chip, while the AI lab will have option to take up to 10% stake in the chipmaker (NBC)

• Trump officials mull stake in Critical Metals Corp, aiming for influence over Greenland's rare earths project (RT)

• Private capital firms are launching €17bn in data center sales, capitalizing on the AI boom and secured revenues (FT)

TARIFFS

• China hawks worry as Trump softens stance, seeking trade deals with Beijing, undermining tough policies (BBG)

• Trump says 25% tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty trucks to begin 1-Nov (BBG)

• US liquor exports fell 9% year-on-year in June quarter after tariffs led to boycotts of American spirits (RT)

• US shrimp prices surge due to tariffs on Indian imports, impacting restaurants and consumer choices (FT)

• China's textile exports to the EU has soared 20% in 1H25 as goods shift from US markets (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB officials Guindos and Lane see balanced inflation risks, indicating no current plans for interest rate changes or cuts (BBG)

US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

• Trump plans mass federal layoffs if shutdown talks with Democrats fail (RT)

• Senate to vote for the sixth time on GOP's seven-week continuing resolution at 5:30pm EST, though no further Democratic defections expected (CNBC)

• Shutdown expected to last longer as both parties harden their positions, with key deadlines looming (POL)

ECONOMY

• Germany to raise economic forecasts, projecting 0.2% GDP growth in 2025 (BBG)

• International student arrivals in US fell 19% year-on-year in August, largest decline on record outside pandemic (NYT)

• Adobe sees 2025 holiday spending be up 5.3% year-on-year, with growth slowing vs 2024 amid search for discounts (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• Bathurst Resources reports results of updated feasibility study for Tenas Project in Canada, post-tax NPV improved from $185m to $269m (BRL)

• CBA’s ASB Bank settles class action and agrees to pay NZ$135.6m (CBA)

• Infratil reports independent valuation of CDC (data centre operator in ANZ) of $13.6bn as at 30-Sep, up $77m since 30-Jun-25 (IFT)

• Regis Resources reports Q1 production of 90.4koz, reaffirms FY26 guidance of 350-380koz (RRL)

• Web Travel Group reports preliminary 1H26 WebBeds TTV of $3.17bn vs. guidance of at least $3.1bn and up from $2.59bn a year ago, FY26 TTV margins on track to be at least 6.5% (WEB)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Another extraordinary session for gold, with prices closing near session highs, just shy of US$4,000. You could make the argument that some gold miners look relatively cheap if prices continue to trend higher. Gold equities inched higher overnight, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 1.9%.

• Oil bounce: The first decent green day for oil in six sessions, with Brent up 1.7% to US$65.5 a barrel.

• Palladium: Prices rallied 5.5% overnight to US$1,322/oz, the highest since June 2023. Could drive some moves for names like Chalice Mining.

• Uranium: Odd session, with Global X Uranium ETF closing 3.2% higher, the highest since August 2011. Though faded from session highs of 6.1%. Catalyst remains unclear.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 7 Oct: Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.005, Reece (REH) – $0.119

• Wed 8 Oct: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.09, Naos Emerging Opportunities (NCC) – $0.02, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.032

• Thu 9 Oct: Clime Investment Management (CIW) – $0.005, Duxton Water (D2O) – $0.037

• Fri 10 Oct: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Adairs (ADH), ALFABS Australia (AAL), Atlas Arteria (ALX), Bhagwan Marine (BWN), Big River Industries (BRI), BlackWall (BWF), Chorus (CNU), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY), Count (CUP), Generation Development Group (GDG), Gold Road Resources (GOR), Humm Group (HUM), NIB Holdings (NHF), Orora (ORA), Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Oct)