Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 extends losses + Flight Centre, Siteminder, Woolworths results
ASX 200 futures are down 19pts (-0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
In this article
ASX 200 futures are down 19pts (-0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
In a nutshell:
The S&P 500 is on a four day skid, down 3.0%
Volatile overnight session with Magnificent 7 stocks continuing to trend lower, oil prices hit a year-to-date low and VIX spike
Another long list of results, with weaker-than-expected earnings so far from Flight Centre, Platinum Asset Management and Siteminder
Let's dive in.
Overnight Summary
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
 S&P 500 | 5,955 | -0.47% |
Dow Jones | 43,621 | +0.37% |
NASDAQ Comp | 19,026 | -1.35% |
Russell 2000 | 2,176 | -0.11% |
Country Indices | ||
 Canada | 25,204 | +0.21% |
 China | 3,346 | -0.80% |
 Germany | 22,410 | -0.07% |
 Hong Kong | 23,034 | -1.32% |
 India | 74,602 | +0.20% |
 Japan | 38,238 | -1.39% |
 United Kingdom | 8,669 | +0.11% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | ||
 Gold | 2,925.0 | -1.38% |
 Iron Ore | 107.19 | +0.06% |
 Copper | 4.512 | +0.02% |
 WTI Oil | 69.1 | -2.50% |
Currency | ||
 AUD/USD | 0.6343 | -0.06% |
Cryptocurrency | ||
 Bitcoin (USD) | 88,316 | -6.02% |
 Ethereum (AUD) | 3,931 | -5.64% |
Miscellaneous | ||
US 10 Yr T-bond | 4.298 | -2.16% |
VIX | 19.6 | +3.27% |
US Sectors
Sector | % Chg |
|---|---|
| Consumer Staples | +1.69% |
| Real Estate | +1.15% |
| Health Care | +0.86% |
| Materials | +0.80% |
| Industrials | +0.53% |
| Financials | -0.10% |
Sector | % Chg |
|---|---|
| Utilities | -0.51% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.84% |
| Information Technology | -1.37% |
| Energy | -1.47% |
| Communication Services | -1.53% |
S&P 500 SESSION CHART
S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)
OVERNIGHT MARKETS
US stocks finished lower but off worst levels, with the S&P 500 down 0.47% from session lows of -1.25%
Equal-weight S&P 500 managed to close 0.1% higher, outperforming the official benchmark by 57 bps amid broad strength in Staples, Real Estate and Healthcare stocks
Yen hits four month high on risk off move, expectations for more BoJ hikes (BBG)
Mag 7 index dips into correction territory, down ~10% from December high (BBG)
Oil drops to lowest price of 2025 amid US growth worries and Russia-US talks on Ukraine (BBG)
Treasuries rally as traders boost Fed rate cut bets on Trump tariff anxiety (BBG)
Trading clients moved to sidelines amid uncertainty over Trump administration says BofA (BBG)
Japanese trading house shares surge after Buffet says he'll increase stakes (BBG)
China ADRs plunge after Trump's latest executive order that stokes decoupling fears (BBG)
STOCKS
Berkshire Hathaway shares soared after Q4 profits jumped 71% to $14.5bn on strong insurance earnings (CNBC)
Nvidia's H20 chip orders jump as Chinese firms adopt DeepSeek's AI models, sources say (RTs)
Buy-the-dip mantra bolstering Nvidia stock, even after rocky start to 2025 (WSJ)
Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by 45% in January this year (FT)
US defense stocks miss global rally as Trump's vow to cut Pentagon costs (FT)
Huawei improves its AI chip output in boost for China's tech ambitions (FT)
CENTRAL BANKS
Dallas Fed's Logan favors purchase of more shorter-term securities when Fed purchases resume (BBG)
Bank of Korea cuts benchmark rate by 25 bp as expected (BBG)
ECB's Nagel says central bank should not rush more cuts (BBG)
GEOPOLITICS & TRADE
Trump and Macron clash on Ukraine strategy, exposing US-Europe divide (AX)
EU and UK in talks over Europe-wide defense funding amid fear of US pullback (FT)
Ukraine agrees to terms for a minerals deal with the US after demand for $500bn in revenue is dropped (FT)
US lawmakers prepare further legislation aimed at China trade practices (RT)
White House looks to tighten restrictions on chip exports to China, pressures allies to replicate (BBG)
ECONOMY
German Q4 GDP confirmed at -0.2%, driven by steep decline in exports (BBG)
Industry ETFs
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities | ||
| Copper Miners | 39.08 | -0.26% |
| Strategic Metals | 40.63 | -0.49% |
| Steel | 62.645 | -0.60% |
| Lithium & Battery Tech | 41.76 | -1.16% |
| Gold Miners | 40.36 | -1.49% |
| Uranium | 25.18 | -1.87% |
| Silver | 28.83 | -2.07% |
Industrials | ||
| Construction | 71.76 | +1.70% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 150.45 | +0.57% |
| Agriculture | 27.055 | +0.09% |
| Global Jets | 24.69 | -0.80% |
Healthcare | ||
| Biotechnology | 137.86 | -0.63% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Cryptocurrency | ||
| Bitcoin | 20.43 | -6.33% |
Renewables | ||
| Solar | 34.37 | +0.26% |
| CleanTech | 6.571 | -1.48% |
| Hydrogen | 20.01 | -1.91% |
Technology | ||
| E-commerce | 29.9956 | -0.11% |
| Robotics & AI | 32.98 | -0.12% |
| Cybersecurity | 34.03 | -0.99% |
| Video Games/eSports | 92.95 | -1.04% |
| Electric Vehicles | 23.25 | -1.06% |
| Cloud Computing | 23.67 | -1.09% |
| FinTech | 30.52 | -1.36% |
| Sports Betting/Gaming | 20.11 | -1.61% |
| Semiconductor | 214.21 | -2.06% |
ASX TODAY
Flight Centre 1H25 underlying NPAT down 1.2% to $78.6m vs. Morgan estimates of $83m (5% miss), interim dividend of 11 cps vs. 13 cps estimates (FLT)
Kelsian 1H25 NPATA down 7.9% to $39.7m vs. $42.7m consensus, interim dividend unchanged and in-line at 8 cps (KLS)
Lynas 1H25 NPAT down 85% to $5.9m, cash position down 55% to $308.3m (LYC)
Ora Banda Mining 1H25 NPAT of $50.8m vs. $10.8m a year ago (OBM)
Platinum Asset Management reports 1H25 NPAT down 55% to $15.9m, interim dividend of 15 cents per share and net outflows of $2.5bn (PTM)
Pointsbet to be acquired by MIXI for $1.06 cash per share, scheme meeting expected in late May (PBH)
Siteminder 1H25 revenue up 13.9% to $104.5m vs. $110.4m consensus (5.3% miss), net loss of $9m vs. expectations of a $7m loss (SDR)
SmartGroup FY NPATA $72.4m vs. $70.5m consensus (2.7% beat), cautiously optimistic for the year ahead, with Jan-25 orders and settlements slightly up on pcp (SIQ)
Steadfast Group 1H25 NPATA up 19% to $154.6m, interim dividend up 15.6% to 7.8 cps, reaffirms full-year NPAT guidance $290-300m (SDF)
Wagners 1H25 NPAT up 340% to $12.3m (WGN)
Westgold Resources Chairman Cheryl Edwards discloses purchase of ~11,900 shares, beneficially owns ~18,000 after the transactions (WGX)
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
A relatively risk-off overnight session that weighed heavily on growth-related pockets of the market as well as energy and materials. Most of our overnight ETFs down 1-2%.
Another long list of results (still haven't covered APX, WOW, BAP etc.) The results that stand out so far include: i) Flight Centre 1H25 soft across most lines and full-year guidance is "currently tracking towards the low-mid section of the range"; ii) Platinum Asset Management bombed (GSe NPAT $156.9m vs. $128.1 actuals or 18% miss); iii) Siteminder also soft and not a good look for a richly valued tech stock
BROKER MOVES
Amplitude Energy upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $0.26 from $0.22 (BP)
Block upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight; target is $65 (MS)
Firefly Metals initiated Outperform with $1.50 target (MQG)
Ingenia Communities downgraded to Overweight from Buy but target up to $6.40 from $5.70 (JARD)
John Lyng Group downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $2.60 from $4.90 (MQG)
Viva Energy downgraded to Neutral from Positive; target cut to $2.30 from $3.20 (E&P)
Viva Energy downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $1.90 from $3.30 (JEF)
Key events
Stocks trading ex-dividend:
Wed 26 Feb – Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.30, Downer Edi (DOW) – $0.108, ECP Emerging Growth (ECP) – $0.024, Fortescue (FMG) – $0.50, Gold Road Resources (GOR) – $0.015, Hearts and Minds Investments (HM1) – $0.08, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.030, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.016, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.095, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.08
Thu 27 Feb: Alfabs Australia (AAL) – $0.015, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.03, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.454, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.013, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.24, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Nickel Industries (NIC) – $0.015, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.007, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.25, Shape Australia Corporation (SHA) – $0.10, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.105, Ventia Services Group (VNT) – $0.106, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.09
Fri 28 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.01, Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.17, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.013, Codan (CDA) – $0.125, Corporate Travel Management (CTD) – $0.10, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.07, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.219, Macquarie Group (MQGPE) – $1.58, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.013, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.008, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.008
Other ASX corporate actions today:
Dividends paid: BWP Trust (BWP), HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN), HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)
Listing: None
Earnings: Acrow (ACF), Appen (APX), Aurelia Metals (AMI), Australian Clinical Labs (ACL), Atturra (ATA), Bapcor (BAP), BrainChip Holdings (BRN), Cettire (CTT), Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6), EBR Systems (EBR), Fineos Corporation Holdings (FCL), Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT), Imugene (IMU), Integral Diagnostics (IDX), Kelsian Group (KLS), Kina Securities (KSL), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ), National Storage REIT (NSR), Oneview Healthcare (ONE), Opthea (OPT), PointsBet Holdings (PBH), ReadyTech Holdings (RDY), Regal Partners (RPL), Scentre Group REIT (SCG), Smartgroup (SIQ), Titomic (TTT), Tyro Payments (TYR), WiseTech Global (WTC), Woolworths Group (WOW), and Worley (WOR)
AGMs: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
No major economic news.
