Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 ekes out record despite hot inflation data + Cochlear, Amcor earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 8pts (+0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 eked out another record high but market breadth was very weak

• US producer prices surged in July, marking the sharpest increase since March 2022

• A handful of reporters today, including Amcor, Baby Bunting and Cochlear

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recouped early losses to close around breakeven  (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished relatively unchanged but off worst levels

• S&P 500 managed to eke out a fresh all-time high, though the Equal-weighted index underperformed by 62 bps

• Today’s big story: Another relatively quiet session, markets managed to shrug off a very hot PPI print (up 0.9% m/m vs. 0.2% ests) as September rate cut remains intact, Fedspeak remains dovish

• Investors losing risk appetite as soaring valuations and tariff uncertainty raise concerns (AX)

• US short-dated bond yields near three-month lows, on rising Fed rate cut expectations (BBG)

• China's bond selloff accelerates, at four-month lows amid rising stock market momentum (BBG)

• Bitcoin hits record high of US$124,517 (RT)

STOCKS

• John Deere forecasts $600m in tariff impacts this year (CNBC)

• Airbnb will allow US users book stays without paying up front (TC)

• Cisco guides revenue in-line with forecasts, highlights AI infrastructure orders from web firms (BBG)

• Apple planning an AI revamp with new devices, including robots, home security, and smart displays (BBG)

• Foxconn guides to higher Q3 revenue, driven by strong AI server demand and 27% profit growth (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump's plan to take cut of chip sales to China prompts companies to question merit of doing business in China (BBG)

• US pharma tariffs delayed as Trump prioritises other issues, including Russia summit (RT)

• Trump administration proposes ~$1bn fund to accelerate development of US critical minerals (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Musalem said it's too early for him to decide on September rate cut (BBG)

• Funds at the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility drops to the lowest level in more than four years (BBG)

• Fed President Daly opposes a 50 bps rate cut, citing labor market strength (RT)

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic reiterates one 25 bp rate cut as appropriate for 2025 (BBG)

• Norway's central bank holds rates at 4.25%, plans further easing in 2025 (BBG)

• Market expects ECB rates to remain higher for longer, caution persists ahead of September meeting (RT)

ECONOMY

• US July PPI up 0.9% m/m vs. 0.2% ests, sharpest increase since Mar-22, most of the increase attributed to machinery and services (RT)

• Japan Q2 GDP forecast to have returned to growth as capex offsets drag from tariffs (BBG)

• China's industrial output likely slowed in July due to weather and capacity constraints (BBG)

• Australian employment rebounds in July, markets fully remain priced for November rate cut (RT)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Ampol to acquire EG Australia for $1.1bn via $800m cash from existing debt facilities and $250m in Ampol shares, transaction expected to deliver high-single digit adjusted EPS accretion (ALD)

• Amcor reports Q4 adjusted EPS of 20 cents vs. 22 cents ests, most quarterly financial metrics below market ests, FY26 EPS guidance of 80-83 cents vs. 83 cents ests, NYSE-listed shares down 11pc (AMC)

• Cochlear reports FY25 NPAT of $391.6m vs. $397.4m ests, total dividend of $4.30 per share vs. $4.26 ests, FY26 NPAT guidance of $435-460m vs. $460.7m ests (COH) 

• Platinum Capital receives unsolicited non-binding, indicative takeover offer from Wilson Asset Management (PMC) 

• Tuas major shareholder Soul Patts’ cuts stake from 21.2% to 14.6% (TUA)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A quiet way to finish the week: Only a handful of reporters today, at a glance, Amcor dipped overnight on weak numbers, Cochlear FY25 results also look weak, while Ampol's M&A has attracted some analyst upgrades. The S&P 500 might've hit another record high but breadth was weak, so a relatively net negative lead for our market. A flurry of Chinese economic data could move the resource sector around noon.

BROKER MOVES

• AGL Energy upgraded to Overweight from Neutral but target cut to $11.60 from $12.40 (JPM)

• Ampol upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $35.90 from $31.80 (ALD)

• Dexus Industria REIT upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $3.10 from $2.95 (BP)

• Megaport downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $15.95 from $9.00 (CITI)

• Telstra downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target up to $4.75 from $4.65 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 15 Aug: Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) – $0.199

• Mon 18 Aug: None

• Tue 19 Aug: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.047, Computershare (CPU) – $0.48, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.31, Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.014

• Wed 20 Aug: Ryder Capital (RYD) – $0.055

• Thu 21 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.02, AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.25, Brickworks (BKW) – $0.484, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson & Co (SOL) – $0.59

• Fri 22 Aug: Iress (IRE) – $0.11

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Indiana Resources (IDA), Cromwell Property Group (CMW)

• Earnings: Baby Bunting (BBN), Centuria Office REIT (COF), Cochlear (COH), HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW), Mirvac Group (MGR)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:50 am: Japan GDP Q2 GDP growth

• 11:30 am: China House Price Index (Jul)

• 12:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Management (Jul)

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales (Jul)