ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 15th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 15. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 1:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

China's economy unexpectedly weakens

[12:49 pm] China's economic data dump broadly missed market expectations, with factory activity and retail sales both missing economist forecasts.

• July factory output rose 5.7% y/y, vs. consensus for a 6.0% increase and down from June’s 6.8%

• Retail sales grew 3.7% y/y, decelerating from June’s 4.8%.

• Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 1.6% YTD, with the urban unemployment rate worsening to 5.2%

• Industrial activity and construction affected by extreme heat, rain, and flooding, adding to seasonal and trade-war pressures.

Cochlear earnings call highlights

[12:40 pm] A few incremental insights coming out of the Cochlear FY25 earnings call. Mostly positive takeaways (despite the weaker-than-expected FY25 numbers and FY26 guidance.

• Sales weighted to second half: Driven by Nexa rollout and Nucleus 7 retirement, supporting strong performance in developed markets.

• Nexa adoption & margins: Positive market response underpins >10% growth outlook; FY26 gross margin at 74% with flexibility for R&D and SGI provision rebuild.

• Cloud & services spend: Post-tax cloud spend ~ $80m; single-digit services growth expected amid U.S. consumer caution.

• China market dynamics: Volume-based pricing lifts overall volume but shifts from mid- to low-tier, affecting revenue and margins.

• Unit growth: Developed markets second half growth >10%, emerging markets strong with modest revenue expansion.

Baby Bunting shares surge on strong result

[11:10 am] Baby Bunting shares are ripping higher, up 28% ($2.37) after reporting a clean result, beating market expectations for FY25 earnings, gross margin as well as FY26 guidance.

• FY25 results beat expectations: Revenue, gross margin, and underlying NPAT all exceeded ests (0.3–8.4% beats), with a significantly improved net debt position.

• FY26 guidance positive: NPAT guided 12% above ests and gross margin expected to expand to 41%, although early sales growth is slightly below consensus for 1H26.

Cochlear slips on FY25 and guidance miss

[10:59 am] Cochlear shares slipped 1.0% ($303.22) in early trade after reporting a relatively soft FY25 result and guidance. The key takeaways are:

• FY25 results slightly below expectations: Revenue, gross margin, EBITDA, and underlying NPAT all missed ests by 1–2%, despite a modest 5% dividend increase.

• FY26 guidance cautious: Midpoint NPAT guided 2.7% below market expectations, with growth expected to be driven by the new Nucleus Nexa implant in developed markets, offset by slower emerging market performance.

What analysts are saying about Westpac's Q3 update

[10:57 am] Westpac shares surged 6.3% on Thursday after its Q3 update highlighted better-than-expected earnings, low credit impairments and net interest margins.

• UBS maintained Buy, target $36.00 EPS upgrades expected after stronger-than-forecast quarter, with NIM supported by deposit repricing and balance sheet mix; UNITE program driving cost growth into 4Q25, consumer business still a work in progress, capital position allows shareholder return flexibility.

• JPMorgan maintained Underweight, target raised from $28.50 to $30.80. Margin upside seen as partially one-off, deposit repricing unlikely to repeat, business lending growth to normalise impairments by FY27, NIM pressured by falling rates, valuation remains stretched.

• Jefferies maintained Hold, target raised from $28.16 to $29.08. Core NIM improved but outlook challenging, business loan growth offset by RAMS decline, UNITE program raised costs, bad debt charges below forecast, capital outcomes supported by lower IRRBB.

• Morgans maintained Trim, target raised from $28.35 to $30.95. NIM beat from low liquidity and spread gains, solid lending and deposit growth, CET1 strength reducing flexibility by FY26, valuation now seen as excessive despite strong result.

Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:20 am] Ampol rallied on its $1.1 billion EG Group Australia acquisition, while Amcor tanked on a weaker-than-expected Q4 result. Elsewhere, gold and rare earth stocks broadly higher, Temple & Webster and Life360 pull back after recent results-driven rallies.

Baby Bunting FY25 results: Guidance hit, margin expansion, solid outlook

[9:35 am] A pretty clean result out of Baby Bunting, with NPAT at the top end of guidance, refurbished "Store of the Future" program delivering strong outcomes and above consensus FY26 guidance.

Here are the key numbers for FY25:

• Revenue up 4.7% to $521.9m vs. $520.3m ests (0.3% beat)

• Gross margin up 340 bps to 40.2% vs. FY25 target of 40.0% and 39.9% ests (29 bp beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 9.1% to $12.1m vs. $11.2m ests (8.4% beat)

• Improved net debt position to $4.6m vs. $13.0m at Jun-24

In terms of outlook and trading update:

• First six weeks of trade (to 10-Aug) has seen total sales growth of 4.8% and comparable sales growth of 4.0% (vs. 1H26 consensus of 7.0% total sales growth and 2.8% comp sales growth)

• FY26 NPAT guidance of $17-20m vs. $16.5m ests (12% beat)

• FY26 gross margin guidance of 41% (vs. 40.5% ests)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Baby Bunting (BBN)

What analysts are saying about Telstra's FY25 results

[9:24 am] Telstra reported relatively in-line numbers for FY25, though some analysts flagged less favourable earnings mix and growth largely driven by Fixed Enterprise and cost savings. FY26 guidance was also soft, though the $1 billion buyback and cash flows were seen as positives. Given the massive share price run up (up 22% YTD heading into the result), the stock struggled for upside, closing the session down 2.6%.

• Jarden downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, target lowered from $4.90 to $4.80. Result was in line but growth mix was less favourable, with mobile softness from postpaid churn and wholesale pricing now key for earnings stability.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Buy, target lowered from $5.10 to $5.00. Cost performance beat guidance but mobile subscriber weakness and a dragging international segment weigh on FY26 outlook and margins.

• JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, target raised from $4.65 to $4.75. Dividend growth and buyback were positives, but mobile subscriber declines pose near-term risks despite enterprise benefits from cost cuts.

• UBS maintained Neutral, target raised from $4.60 to $4.80. Postpaid churn and one-offs hurt SIOs, mobile growth likely to stay muted, while enterprise margins improved from restructuring.

Cochlear FY25 results: Another earnings miss

[9:15 am] Cochlear reported another weaker-than-expected set of numbers (missed FY24 and 1H25 earnings), with the company attributing this outcome to slower developed market growth and a "modest loss of share in a few countries ahead of the new product launch".

Here are the key numbers for FY25:

• Revenue up 4% to $2.35bn vs. $2.37bn ests (1% miss)

• Gross profit margin of 73.9% vs. 74.4% ests (50 bp miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 2% to $612m vs. $617m ests (1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 1% to $392m vs. $399m ests (2% miss)

• Full-year dividend up 5% to 430 cps vs. 425 cps ests (1% beat)

For FY26, Cochlear guided to underlying NPAT of $435-460 million vs. market expectations of $460 million, or a 2.7% miss at the midpoint.

"We expect strong revenue growth in developed markets from the launch of the new Nucleus Nexa implant, moderated by lower growth in emerging markets revenue, with overall revenue and earnings growth weighted to the second half," noted the earnings announcement.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cochlear (COH)

Amcor Q4 earnings call highlights

[9:07 am] Amcor finished its earnings call around 8 pm on Thursday. A few incremental bits of info. Here are the key takeaways:

• North American beverage divestment: Won’t impact procurement savings, with $650m in synergies still expected.

• Q4 volumes: Weaker than expected due to North America, with value-based pricing opportunities identified.

• Portfolio review: $1bn under review across 10 businesses from legacy Amcor and Berry, focusing on growth, margin, and market leadership.

• Market dynamics: No significant market share shifts or customer destocking; focus remains on consumer demand.

• FY26 synergies: $260m reaffirmed, with cost reductions and operational improvements expected to drive EPS growth.

• Rigid beverage performance: Q4 underperformance linked to cost-cutting impacting service levels; stabilization expected within quarters.

• Capital priorities: Leverage reduction takes precedence over buybacks until reaching the 2.5–3x target range post-divestments and integration.

US producer prices rise by most in three years

[9:03 am] US producer prices surged 0.9% month-on-month in July, well-above market expectations for a 0.2% increase. This marks the sharpest increase since March 2022.

• Services-led spike: Services prices up 1.1% with wholesaler/retailer margins up 2%, led by machinery and equipment.

• Goods ex-food & energy: Rose 0.4%, while food prices (mainly vegetables) contributed 40% of the final goods cost increase.

• Pipeline pressures: Processed goods for intermediate demand up 0.8%, the biggest rise YTD, largely due to diesel fuel.

• Tariff pass-through rising: Businesses increasingly passing import cost increases to consumers, with economists expecting modest inflation pick-up in the second half of 2025.

Amcor tanks on Q4 earnings miss

[9:00 am] NYSE-listed Amcor shares tumbled 11.8% overnight after the company's Q4 numbers broadly missed market expectations. The strong year-on-year growth reflects the inclusion of its Berry Global acquisition (closed April 2025) but EPS is flat due to dilution. Here are the key numbers for Q4:

• Revenue up 43% to $5.08bn vs. $5.19bn ests (2.1% miss)

• EBITDA up 43% to $789m vs. $837.4m ests (5.8% miss)

• Adjusted EPS of 20 cps vs. 22 cps ests (9.1% miss)

Amcor also guided to FY26 EPS of 80-83 cents vs. market expectations of 83 cents.

"Both Flexibles and Rigids results reflected a weak demand environment. Volumes were -1.5% in Flexibles and -2% in Rigids vs the pcp for the combined group (-1% and -4% for AMC stand alone). Q4 was also impacted by higher costs in North America beverage business and increased corporate expenses," noted E&P analyst Cameron McDonald.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Amcor (AMC)

Soul Patts' cuts Tuas holding

[8:49 am] Tuas major shareholder Washington H. Soul Pattinson has lowered its stake from 21.2% to 14.6%.

Earlier this week, the AFR flagged Soul Patts as the seller of the $140 million block trade, priced at $7.00 per share.

The selldown comes after Tuas on Monday signed a binding deal to acquire telecommunications company M1 Limited, a move that adds ~A$960 million revenue from 2 million mobile subscribers.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Tuas (TUA)

Eyes on Ampol

[8:47 am] Ampol is definitely a stock to watch this morning after signing a share purchase agreement to acquire EG Group Australia for $1.1 billion. Here are the key takeaways:

• Consideration totals ~$800m cash (from existing debt facilities) plus $250m in Ampol shares, adjusted for upfront working capital release.

• ACCC proposal includes divesting ~20 sites from the combined network to address competition concerns.

• Valuation & synergies: post-synergy multiple of 5.8x EV/EBITDA with targeted synergies of $65–80m.

• Financial impact: expected high single-digit proforma EPS accretion and double-digit proforma FCF per share accretion post-synergies.

• Leverage expected to return to 2.0–2.5x by end-2027, following the first full year of integration.

• Timeline: completion targeted for mid-2026, with full integration expected within ~2 years of closing.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ampol (ALD)

S&P 500 ekes out a fresh all-time high

[8:43 am] The S&P 500 (+0.03%) might've nudged out another fresh all-time high but things were relatively weak beneath the hood.

• Only four out of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher (Financials, Healthcare, Discretionary and Communication Services)

• Equal-weight S&P 500 dipped 0.65%

• Russell 2000 pulled back 1.2% after rallying 5.0% in the previous two sessions

Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 8pts (+0.09%) after a relatively uneventful overnight session, where major US benchmarks mostly closed around breakeven.

A fairly quiet way to close out the week, with a handful of FY25 reporters plus a flurry of Chinese economic data around noon.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.