Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 closes little changed, Gold and uranium extend gains

ASX 200 futures are up 6 pts (+0.06%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks gave back early gains to close relatively flat

• S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time before pulling back

• Gold prices continue to surge, now close to US$5,400 and up almost 25% YTD

• Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with commentary slightly hawkish but market rate cut pricing little changed

• Microsoft and Meta reported quarterly results after hours, both beat market expectations but shares moving in opposite directors after hours

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gave back early gains to close breakeven (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks opened higher but finished little changed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fading from record levels

• Markets little changed after the widely expected Fed hold, though commentary took a slightly hawkish lean on improved economic growth and jobs wording

• Microsoft and Meta announced quarterly earnings after market close, Microsoft down ~4% after hours, Meta up ~3%

• Gold now closing in on US$5,400 despite closing at ~US$5,180 on Wednesday, prices have rallied almost 25% year-to-date

• US dollar slides after Trump say he is not concerned about its weakness (BBG)

• US dollar then bounced after Bessent affirms strong USD policy (RT)

• Oil call options are on longest bullish run since 2024 amid Iran risks (BBG)

• Bond traders betting on dovish Fed policy shift as BlackRock's Rick Rieder gains momentum to succeed Powell (BBG)

• Japan bonds rally as 40-year auction sees strongest demand since March, easing immediate debt fears (BBG)

• Swiss franc surges to decade high as investors seek safe haven (FT)

• South Korea's market cap overtakes Germany's, buoyed by tech sector strength (BBG)

STOCKS

• JPMorgan and BofA announce $1,000 Trump account match (YF)

• Stellantis invests $13bn to revamp Jeep and Dodge brands (FT)

• Deutsche Bank offices raided in German money laundering probe (FT)

• Texas Instruments guides revenue above forecasts as industrial demand recovers, shares surge 9.9pc (BBG)

• ASML says AI demand boosting orders and sees significant sales increase this year but plans 1700 job cuts (CNBC)

• SK Hynix posts record quarterly profit, sees surging AI demand driving memory growth, shares rallied 5.1pc, now up almost 30pc YTD (CNBC)

• Seagate forecasts Q3 revenue and profit above expectations as AI-driven storage demand rises, shares surge 19pc, lifting YTD gains to 57pc (RT)

• Anthropic raises 2026 revenue forecast 20% but delays positive cash flow expectations (TI)

• SpaceX weighs mid‑June IPO potentially raising $50bn at ~$1.5tn valuation (FT)

• Logitech posts best quarterly earnings since pandemic, driven by video-conferencing and education sales, shares still dip 7.5pc to 7-month low (RT)

TARIFFS

• China approves first batch of Nvidia H200 imports, opening way for high-profile names like ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to buy chips (RT)

• US and Canada officially agree to begin formal discussions on possible structural and strategic reforms to USMCA (WSJ)

• Ottawa, Seoul agree to work on bringing South Korean auto manufacturing to Canada (GM)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% as expected, Waller and Miran dissent in favour of a 25 bp cut, language around economic growth was upgraded from “modest” to “solid”, unemployment rate showed signs of “stabilisation” from previous “edging up”, overall slightly hawkish tone (BBG)

• Bank of Canada holds, cites trade uncertainty, Fed independence concerns (RT)

• ECB may cut rates if euro strength impacts inflation forecasts says Austrian governor Kocher (FT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Gulf allies refuse support for US over possible Iran strike, constraining Trump's military options (WSJ)

• Trump threatens to cut off assistance to Iraq if it reinstates Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister (RT)

ECONOMY

• Australian inflation continued to accelerate in December, boosts odds of February RBA rate hike (RT)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 futures flattish, big pullback in the Aussie 10-year (down 10 bps from 4.87% to 4.76%) but Aussie dollar now at 70.36 US cents (highest since Jan-23). Commodity prices continued to chug higher overnight, though recent rate hike chatter could dampen some consumer facing sectors. Lots of quarterlies and trading updates still coming through so I'll take a closer look on the blog

• Ora Banda reports Q2 gold production of 32koz vs 37koz ests, AISC was A$3,505 vs. A$2,926 ests, FY26 guidance retained but expected to track towards lower end, AISC guidance increased to A$3,250-3,350/oz vs. prior A$2,800-2,900 due to higher third party processing costs (OBM)

• Iluka reports above forecast zircon/rutile/synthetic rutile production for Q4, flags non-cash impairment charge of ~$350m relating to its Cataby mine (ILU)  

• SmartGroup weighing all scrip bid for FleetPartners (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium: Uranium ETF added another 6.8% overnight as uranium prices continue to push above US$90/lb and towards fresh two-year highs. Lots of local uranium names like Paladin, Deep Yellow, Bannerman etc. look vertical, but clearly a big momentum shift as spot prices break out.

• ASX: ASX reported a better-than-expected preliminary 1H26 result yesterday but hiked its FY26 expense guidance, so two very conflicting outcomes. The stock finished relatively flat, but seeing some analyst upgrades this morning.

BROKER MOVES

• Amcor downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $68.66 from $88.45 (MS)

• ASX upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target up to $62 from $60 (JPM)

• Boss Energy downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $1.95 from $2.00 (BP)

• Fletcher Building downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target cut to $2.89 from $3.13 (MS)

• Greatland Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target however up to $11.70 from $11.00 (GS)

• Greatland Resources downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target however increased to $13.00 from $11.40 (MQG)

• Reece upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $16.00 from $12.00 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 29 Jan: 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.05, CD Private Equity Fund I (CD1) – $0.05, CD Private Equity Fund II (CD2) – $0.38, CD Private Equity Fund III (CD3) – $0.04, EUROZ Hartleys Group Ltd (EZL) – $0.025, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.012, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.006

• Fri 30 Jan: Djerriwarrh Investments Ltd (DJW) – $0.072, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.014

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Turners Automotive (TRA), Tower (TWR), Solvar (SVR)

• Earnings: Champion Iron (CIA)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.