Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 closes little changed, China data in focus

ASX 200 futures are down 1pts (-0.01%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks pretty much flat overnight, only the Russell 2000 finished higher

• Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 for an eleventh straight session, marking the longest beat streak since 2008

• Trump threatened tariffs on EU countries that don't support the Greenland takeover

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 flat after a relatively rangebound session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower but closed close to breakeven

• Russell 2000 continued to outperform, beating the S&P 500 for an eleventh straight session

• A few minor moving pieces, Trump said he wants to keep Hassett at the White House (trimmed rate cut expectations slightly), he also flagged potential tariffs on countries that don’t support the Greenland move and still-solid earnings

• US equities mostly lower for the week, though breadth was positive and the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.73%) finished higher

• Soft weekly performance largely reflects some weakness in Big Tech, notably Meta (-5.0%) and Amazon (-3.6%) 

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+2.04%), Dow (-0.29%), S&P 500 (-0.38%), Nasdaq (-0.66%)

• Global equity funds saw largest weekly net inflow in 15 weeks, according to LSEG Lipper data (RT)

• European defence stocks spike on US tensions over Greenland (FT)

• Yen faces upcoming volatility from BOJ meeting, potential snap election, fresh intervention warnings (BBG)

STOCKS

• White House considering capping credit card rates via executive order (BBG)

• Claude Code highlighted as the single most important product in the whole AI industry, according to several analysts (WSJ)

• Sequoia Capital reportedly planning a 'big investment' in Anthropic (FT)

• Micron will buy a chip fab from Powerchip in Taiwan for ~$1.8bn (BBG)

• OpenAI seeking partners to help it expand into consumer devices, robotics and cloud data centers (BBG)

• AI coding startup Replit nearing deal for $400m funding round, tripling its valuation to $9bn (BBG)

• Bank CEOs bullish on outlook for M&A and capital markets activity after record $134bn trading revenue last year (BBG)

• Bank dividends and buybacks totaled more than $140bn in 2025, topping record set in 2019 (BBG)

• Rio Tinto-Glencore tie-up may need asset sales to satisfy China's competition and resource-security concerns (RT)

• Porsche deliveries fell 10% in 2025 due to weaker China demand and model cuts (WSJ)

TARIFFS

• US and Taiwan reach trade deal, with tariff rate lowered to 15% from 20%, Taiwan to expand US financing by $500bn (FT)

• TSMC CEO says company will try to speed transfer of advanced expertise to US, leading-edge tech will remain in Taiwan (BBG)

• Canada opens to Chinese EVs, China cuts canola tariffs (POL)

• China-Canada deal signals Ottawa is serious about its shift from the US amid tensions (BBC)

• EU and Mercosur bloc of South American nations sign landmark free trade agreement (AP)

• China's rare-earth product exports declined in December amid spat with Japan (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Investigation into Powell complicates Fed chair race, Trump wants loyalist while senators demand independence (BBG)

• President Trump to keep NEC Director Kevin Hassett where he is (CNBC).

• Fed officials signal intent to keep rates on hold amid signs of labour market stabilisation and above-target inflation (BBG)

• ECB's Lane sees rates on hold through 2028, but new shocks could upset the outlook (LS)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump delays decision on striking Iran while consulting domestically and with allies on timing and impact (AX)

• Trump says he'll hit Denmark and 7 other EU/NATO countries with new tariffs of up to 25% until there's a deal to buy Greenland (NBC)

• EU reportedly set to suspend trade deal with US over Trump's new tariff threat (BBG)

• EU to hold emergency meeting in Brussels regarding Trump's tariffs over Greenland (F)

• Venezuela's Machado gives Trump her Nobel peace prize, White House reiterates she does not have support to lead (RT)

ECONOMY

• China GDP and activity data forecast to show economic slowdown deepened through Q4 (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Still very quiet on the announcement front, expecting newsflow to pick up over the next couple of days as we head into February reporting season

• Brazilian Rare Earths holder Whitehaven Coal increases stake to 12.6% from 9.0% (BRE) 

• NextDC M4 Melbourne data centre receives development approval (NXT)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities pullback: Quite a few resource-related ETFs slipped 1-3% overnight, in-line with softness from most commodities (copper down 2.3%, nickel down 3.6%, silver down 2.4%, aluminium down 1.2% etc.) Though uranium ETF up 3.0%, now within 6% of Oct-25 highs.

BROKER MOVES

• BHP Group retained Overweight; target up to $56.50 from $48.00 (JPM)

• Boss Energy upgraded to Overweight from Underweight; target up to $2.05 from $1.85 (JPM)

• Deterra Royalties upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target up to $4.75 from $4.40 (JPM)

• Fortescue downgraded to Underweight from Overweight; target down to $19.75 from $21.20 (JPM)

• IGO retained Underweight; target up to $8.40 from $4.50 (JPM)

• Iluka Resources retained Overweight; target down to $7.30 from $8.60 (JPM)

• Lynas Rare Earths upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; target down to $17.55 from $19.45 (JPM)

• Paladin Energy retained Overweight; target up to $12.05 from $10.40 (JPM)

• PLS Group retained Overweight; target up to $5.25 from $2.85 (JPM)

• Rio Tinto retained Equal-weight; target up to $138.00 from $129.50 (JPM)

• Sandfire Resources retained Underweight; target up to $16.15 from $11.45 (JPM)

• South32 retained Overweight; target up to $4.70 from $3.45 (JPM)

• Whitehaven Coal downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target up to $8.75 from $8.00 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 19 Jan: WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.005

• Tue 20 Jan: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $1.00

• Wed 21 Jan: None

• Thu 22 Jan: None

• Fri 23 Jan: Mirrabooka Investments (MIR) – $0.045

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:00 am: Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (Dec)

• 12:30 am: China House Price Index (Dec)

• 1:00 pm: China GDP (Q4)

• 1:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment (Dec)