Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 and Nasdaq at fresh all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are down 3 pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs, Nasdaq now on a massive eleven day winning streak, the longest since November 2021

• Tech boosted benchmarks but overall breadth was poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.04%) and Dow (-0.15%) underperforming amid weakness from Industrials, Materials, Utilities and more

• Bank of America and Morgan Stanley join peers in posting record equity trading revenues

• Trump says Iran war is "very close to over", ongoing discussions may require a ceasefire extension

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 16 Apr 26, 8:20am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	7,023	+0.80%
Dow Jones	48,464	-0.15%
NASDAQ Comp	24,016	+1.59%
Russell 2000	2,714	+0.30%
Country Indices
Canada	34,156	+0.16%
China	4,027	+0.01%
Germany	24,067	+0.09%
Hong Kong	25,947	+0.29%
India	78,111	+1.64%
Japan	58,134	+0.44%
United Kingdom	10,560	-0.47%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,791.72	-1.04%
Copper	6.06	-0.13%
WTI Oil	91.29	+0.01%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7173	+0.03%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	74,958	+1.20%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,305	+2.08%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.282	+0.61%
VIX	18.17	-1.03%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with the S&P 500 closing at fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq recording an 11th straight day of gains

• VIX fell 4% to 18.18, its lowest close in several weeks as the war risk premium continues to unwind

• Breadth was poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.04%) underperforming the cap-weighted benchmark by 84 bps, the Dow also finished lower and remains ~4% away from all-time highs

• Today's record setting session largely buoyed by tech stocks, Mag-7 names like Apple (+2.9%), Microsoft (+4.2%), Broadcom (+4.2%) and Tesla (+7.6%) boosted indices, while defensives and cyclicals struggled

• Wall Street bottom-fishing in beaten-down software stocks, with an industry ETF up 11.1% over three sessions, Oracle up 23%, and Microsoft and Palantir rallying sharply (BBG)

• Nasdaq on longest winning streak since November 2021 (WSJ)

• Markets increasingly ignoring Middle East turmoil with focus back on corporate fundamentals (BBG)

• SEC approved the elimination of the pattern day trading rule, scrapping the $25,000 minimum equity requirement (BBG)

• Wall Street traders posted record revenues across the board in Q1, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America joining Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in reporting blowout trading results (BBG)

ENERGY

• Iran has roughly two weeks before having to shut-in oil production if US naval blockade continues (FT)

• BofA says its customers spent 16% more on gasoline in March due to Iran war (BBG)

• Energy Secretary Wright says US is unlikely to grant new waiver to buy Russian oil (BBG)

• IMF cautions countries against broad fuel subsidies to address war-driven energy surge (RT)

IRAN

• Trump said the Iran war is "very close to over" and that Tehran "wants to make a deal very badly" in a Fox Business interview (CNBC)

• US and Iranian negotiators closing in on a framework deal, concluding it may require a ceasefire extension (AX)

• Trump says China has agreed not to supply Iran with weapons (TS)

• US Central Command confirmed the naval blockade of Iranian ports is fully implemented with 10,000 troops, over 100 aircraft, and 12 warships enforcing the restriction (CNBC)

• Israel's security cabinet convened to discuss a possible Lebanon ceasefire, after the first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in 40 years were held in Washington (RT)

STOCKS

• Bank of America Q1 FY26: Net income up 17% to $8.6bn, EPS $1.11 beat ests by ~10%. Equities trading revenue up 30%, its best quarter in 15 years. NII up 9% to $15.9bn, shares up 1.8% (CNBC)

• Morgan Stanley Q1 FY26: Record net revenue of $20.6bn. Equity trading revenue hit a record $5.15bn, up 25%. Wealth management pulled in $118.4bn in net new assets, shares rally 4.5% to all-time highs (BBG)

• ASML Q1 FY26: Revenue of €8.8bn in line with guidance, gross margin 53% at top end. Raised FY26 revenue guidance to €36-40bn from €34-39bn. Shares fell ~2% on Q2 guidance midpoint below expectations (YF)

• Meta and Broadcom announced a multibillion-dollar expanded partnership to co-develop custom 2nm AI chips, with Meta committing to an initial 1GW deployment of MTIA accelerators (BBG)

• Luxury stocks fall after Kering reported declining Gucci sales and Hermes noted Middle East impacts (CNBC)

• Uber has committed more than $10bn to autonomous vehicles via partnerships and plans to launch robotaxi services (FT)

• Stellantis reports 12% rise in Q1 vehicle shipments, largely fueled by increases in North America and Europe (BBG)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• Bessent expects US tariffs will be restored to levels before SCOTUS decision by beginning of July (BBG)

• White House to launch refund system for importers next Monday for $166bn in tariffs deemed unlawful by SCOTUS (RT)

• Trump threatens to revoke trade deal with the UK, criticising PM Starmer amid Iran war tensions (TG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump says he will have to fire Powell if he stays at the Fed after his chairmanship expires (CNBC)

• Chicago's Goolsbee says Iran war, new tariffs present a "double danger" for policymakers to navigate (FT)

• Fed's Hammack says she expects interest rates to stay on hold 'for a good while' (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• Japan manufacturer sentiment sees sharpest fall since January 2023 amid concerns over oil prices, supply chain impacts (RT)

• China Q1 GDP growth forecast to have picked up from 4.8% a year ago, March activity data seen mixed (BBG)

• France's inflation rate rises to 2%, exceeding initial estimates due to surging energy costs from Iran war (BBG)

• South Korea import inflation hit more than three year high due to surge in oil prices (RT)

• Bank of America CEO Moynihan flagged "healthy client activity, solid consumer spending and stable asset quality, indicating a resilient American economy" despite elevated geopolitical risks (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• Alkane Resources to replace National Storage REIT in the S&P/ASX 200, effective 22-Apr (ALK)

• Fletcher Building provides Q3 product sales update, positive divisional performance for Light Building Products and Distribution but volume data pre-dates recent geopolitical developments, overall impact cannot be ascertained with certainty (FBU)

• New Hope launches $300m senior unsecured convertible notes due 2032, current trading updated says production and cost performance tracking well within guidance range (NHC)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• ASX futures flat: The tech/growth outperformance overnight is not the best lead in for Aussie equities. Sectors like Materials, Industrials, Staples and Energy finished lower on Wall Street. Also a flattish overnight session for most commodity prices.

• Viva Energy: Large fire reported at Viva Energy's Corio refinery in Geelong and not yet under control as of early hours on Thursday. The refinery processes 120,000 barrels a day or ~10% of Australia's daily fuel supply. This means we only have one refiner (owned by Ampol) in operation. Not a good look for our ongoing fuel crisis (short Viva, long Ampol?)

• Tech gains: iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF up 4.4% overnight, now up 11% in the last three sessions, closing at a three-week high. Bottoming process continues for battered software stocks. Likely to see some positive flows for local tech names, most of which gained 2-3% on Wednesday.

BROKER MOVES

• Reece downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $11.90 from $13.75 (Goldman Sachs)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 16 Apr: Acorn Capital Investment Fund (ACQ) – $0.035, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.006

• Fri 17 Apr: None

• Mon 20 Apr: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.48

• Tue 21 Apr: MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.10

• Wed 22 Apr: Shriro Holdings (SHM) – $0.02 

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Brisbane Broncos (BBL), Cleanaway (CWY), Garda Property Group (GDF), Flight Centre (FLT), Rio Tinto (RIO)

• IPOs: Bison Resources (BSR) at 1:00 pm AEST

• AGMs: Santos (STO) 

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment

• 11:30 am: China House Price Index

• 12:00 pm: China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment

• 4:00 pm: UK GDP