Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 and Dow slip as oil prices bounce

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly lower on weak breadth. The Dow lagged and trended lower intraday, snapping a five-day win streak, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed marginally lower 

• Brent bounced 4.6% to US$83 a barrel on news that Iran will seek a bar on US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz

• Alphabet returned to the bond market seeking $25bn, a fresh test of investor appetite for AI-linked debt 

• Notable session for software names, with Datadog posting its worst day on record and HubSpot its biggest fall since listing, despite reporting beat-and-raise results, while storage names dragged the chip complex lower

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding up relatively well, but the Dow trended lower intraday to close at worst levels

• The pullback continues, but in a rather orderly fashion, where the usual volatile suspects like Micron (-1.3%), Intel (-1.2%) and Nvidia (-0.10%) traded slightly lower, and the VIX fell 4% to 15.1

• Brent (+4.6%) bounced after falling 22% in the last two weeks as peace talk progression remains volatile

• Sell America debate revived as Warsh communication style and Bessent's yen support cloud outlook for dollar (BBG)

• Hackers said to have carried out sophisticated cyberattacks on major Wall Street firms and hedge funds' info systems (BBG)

• China's lower-cost AI models draw attention toward internet stocks as alternative to crowded US AI infrastructure trade (BBG)

• SK Hynix suffers second 30% pre-market flash crash in week, renewing scrutiny of South Korea's alternative bourse (BBG)

• Oil held a three-day drop after Iran and Oman agreed a proposed Hormuz shipping route, WTI trading near $75 into the Australian morning (BBG)

• Alphabet returned to the US high-grade market seeking $25bn across as many as 10 tranches, one of the year's largest AI-related order books (BBG)

• JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warned market leverage is elevated and margin debt the highest ever, much of it hidden through prime-brokerage borrowing (BBG)

• Airbnb Q2 FY26: revenue up 17% to $3.61bn, 1% ahead of ests, EPS $1.37 beat by about 10%, gross booking value up 16% to $27.2bn, Q3 revenue guide of $4.69bn to $4.77bn well ahead of $4.61bn ests, shares up ~9% after hours (CNBC)

• Datadog Q2 FY26: revenue up 36% to $1.12bn, 4% ahead of ests, EPS $0.65 beat by 12%, FY26 revenue guide lifted to $4.45bn to $4.47bn, yet shares fell ~19% in the worst session on record after a key AI customer flagged softer second-half usage (YF)

• HubSpot Q2 FY26: revenue up 20% to $911.7m, 2% ahead of ests, EPS $3.26 beat by 8%, but the FY26 revenue guide was trimmed to about $3.68bn and net customer adds of 7,000 missed its own 9,000 to 10,000 target, shares down about 19% (MF)

• Cloudflare jumped ~17% after hours on solid full-year and current-quarter guidance (CNBC)

• SpaceX steadied on Thursday, up 6.1%, as the IPO lockup expired and freed up to 911.5m restricted shares, roughly doubling the public float (TS)

• Sandisk lost 6.8% as first-quarter revenue guidance of $10.3bn to $10.8bn disappointed, even after fourth-quarter results beat on strong AI-driven demand (CNBC)

• Iran seeks to bar US ships as Hormuz deal with Oman advances (BBG)

• Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed Hormuz shipping route expected to operate for 2-4 months, stressing it does not amount to a full reopening (BBG)

• Some Iranian sources pushed back on Trump's claim that a broader deal was imminent, saying important details remain unresolved (PA)

• Yemen's Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened further vessels in the Red Sea (TE)

• Saudi Aramco cut its Arab Light price for Asian buyers by 50 cents to a $2 discount to the regional benchmark as Hormuz talks advanced (BBG)

• Kevin Warsh sticking with lean Fed messaging, prepared to hike if inflation comes in hot (FT)

• Warsh relying on the market to tighten risks heightened volatility, pricing overshoots (BBG)

• Fed's Daly said the tariff impact on inflation is starting to fade and an end to the Middle East war would help, while technology investment is pushing prices higher (BBG)

• Brazil cuts rates for a fourth consecutive time as inflationary pressures ease, growth slows (BBG)

• US initial jobless claims edged up to 199,000 in the week to Aug 1, below the roughly 203,000 expected and under 200,000 for a third straight week, the longest run since 1969 (BBG)

• US ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000 in July, missing forecasts, ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls (FXS)

• Australia unexpectedly swung to a A$1.93bn trade surplus in June, against expectations of a deficit, as export values jumped the most in four years (BBG)

• Coles Group to outsource corporate office jobs to India under a multi-year Accenture deal valued in the hundreds of millions, with estimated local cuts of hundreds to over 1,000 of its ~5,000 corporate staff (AFR)

• James Hardie Industries responds to a proxy adviser report recommending holders vote against the CEO's equity grant at the upcoming AGM, urging support and pointing to a redesigned FY27 LTI with a predominantly performance-based structure and guidance-aligned targets (JHX)

• James Hardie Industries reports Q1 net income of US$209.3m ex-items, ~14% ahead of ests, on revenue of US$1.48bn. Lifts FY27 (Mar) revenue guidance to US$5.564-5.723bn and adjusted EBITDA to US$1.536-1.625bn, both above prior guidance, while reiterating FCF of at least US$500m (JHX)

• Nick Scali reports FY NPAT of $75.7m, broadly in line with $76.0m ests, on revenue of $516.7m (~3% below ests). Lifts final DPS to $0.39 from $0.33. First 5 weeks show flat ANZ written orders and UK orders +35% y/y (NCK)

• ResMed reports Q4 EPS of US$0.295 ex-items, ~2% ahead of ests, on in-line revenue of US$1.46bn. Operating income of US$515m ex-items missed the US$525.3m ests. Lifts quarterly dividend 10% to US$0.66 (RMD)

• Webjet Group CEO Nicole Sheffield discloses an on-market purchase of 250k shares (WEB)

• Wildcat Resources acquires Elevra's pegmatite rights over E45/2364 for $16m plus a contingent royalty, and buys fixed and NSR royalties from Attgold for $750k, with scrip issued at $0.353/sh (WC8)

• Woodside Energy to sell its remaining 70% operated interest in the Calypso project (Trinidad and Tobago) to BP, which already holds the other 30%. Terms undisclosed but comprise cash plus contingent payments. Expected to close by end-2026, subject to approvals (WDS)

• Pullback dynamics: Major US benchmarks are easing off record highs, in a rather orderly fashion. Semis aren't getting annihilated and the VIX actually fell overnight to 15.1. Most of the softness traces back to a spike in oil prices, with US-Iran headlines still volatile. Higher oil and bond yields normally weigh on resources, but mining equities and commodity prices held up, copper down 0.4% and gold off 0.2%. Bottom line, who doesn't love an orderly pullback.

Broker data is currently pending. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 7 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.03

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Senetas Corp (SEN) – $0.21

• Earnings: AVITA Medical (AVH), Group 6 Metals (G6M), James Hardie (JHX), Charter Hall Retail (CQR), Nick Scali (NCK), ResMed (RMD) 

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST): 

• 1:00 pm: China balance of trade