Markets at Midday: ASX 200 trims early losses but still eyes seventh straight decline

The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 17 pts lower (-0.20%) at noon.

What an odd day – with the market reversing early declines, off the back of a better-than-feared CPI print. The session started off fairly mixed, with only Utilities, Tech and Energy the main positive sectors, while Materials dipped more than 1.5%. Now, most sectors are positive and Materials have recouped half the early decline.

Let’s dive in

Midday market summary

Data as at 12:36 pm AEST (Source: Market Index)

Today’s big story: Australian CPI surges

The March CPI print came in at the highest level since September 2023, driven by a record monthly jump in automotive fuel prices, though underlying inflation remained contained.

• Headline CPI up 4.6% year-on-year vs. ests of 4.8%

• Monthly CPI up 1.1% vs. ests of 1.3%

• Trimmed mean up 3.3% year-on-year, in line with ests

• Transport was the key driver of the monthly move, rising 9.2% in March, with automotive fuel prices surging 32.8% in a single month, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 2017

• Regular unleaded petrol rose 33% to an average of 228 cents per litre in March and diesel rose 41% to 256 cents per litre

• Housing was the largest annual contributor to CPI, rising 6.5% over the year

• Electricity costs are 25.4% higher than 12 months ago, following the expiry of Commonwealth and state government rebates

• Trimmed mean inflation being unchanged at 3.3% annually suggests underlying price pressures remain contained and the fuel spike is largely war-related rather than broad-based

The ASX 200 was trading around 0.4% lower heading into the CPI print at 11:30 am, now down around 0.20%. While trimmed mean measures have come in slightly below RBA forecasts, the bank is still widely expected to hike at next week's meeting (futures imply ~80% likelihood of a 25 bp hike).

Must read announcements 

• Codan (CDA): Upgrades FY26 guidance as both divisions fire above expectations

• G8 Education (GEM): Flags severe occupancy decline and moves to restructure network

• oOh!media (OML): PEP lobs ~$750m takeover bid at 65% premium to last close

Capital raisings

• Gold Mountain (GMN): $5.5m raised to fund Brazilian accelerated exploration

• Meteoric Resources (MEI): Completion of $40m placement

• Syntara (SNT): $8m placement and share purchase plan

Thinking out loud: Codan is a beast

Codan has been doing all the right things this year, and has surged again today, after upgrading its FY26 guidance. While Codan falls under the Tech sector, it's more so a hardware company that develops communications and metal detection equipment.

Today's guidance upgrade featured:

• FY26 NPAT guidance of ~$170m vs. ests of $152.5m (11% beat), implies year-on-year growth of approximately 64%

• Communications segment revenue growth now expected at the top end of the 15-20% target range for FY26

• Communications segment profit margin now expected to reach 30% in FY26, ahead of the prior FY27 target, representing a meaningful step up from the 26% margin delivered in FY25

• Minelab revenue in 2H26 to date is tracking ahead of an already strong 1H, supported by a favourable gold price and recent product launches

An above consensus guidance upgrade, continued leverage against high gold prices and a pull forward in margin expectations. It doesn't get any better than that.

Interestingly, Codan was one of few large cap technology stocks that i) was positive year-to-date, up 28% prior to today's announcement and ii) traded relatively flat in recent weeks, amid all the "SaaScopolyse" headwinds.

The stock is currently up 17% to fresh all-time highs, and I wouldn't be surprise to see a long list of broker target price upgrades tomorrow.

Intraday winners and losers

The below tables observe the S&P/ASX 200 stocks with the largest increase/decrease from today's open price.

Broker moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.20

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.38

• Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $0.42 from $0.44

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.45

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.42

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.43 from $1.35

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.20

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.10

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.10

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Upgraded to speculative buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.40

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.01

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $17.70 from $17.80

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.30

• Retained at sell at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $11.90 from $11.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $15.60

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.10

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.55

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.35

Technology One (TNE)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $32.00 from $38.70

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.80

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $8.80 from $8.50

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $10.00

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.10 from $9.60