Copper, nickel, iron ore, uranium, coal, rare earths, gold, silver…Where are prices headed in 2025?

2024 was generally a tough year for investors in commodities and commodity stocks, with a few exceptions (mainly gold and silver). On the demand side, a slowing global economy and uncertainty over global trade flows are mostly to blame. On the supply side, the bottlenecks of the COVID-19 pandemic are largely alleviated, and this means more ore is reaching the market.

Looking forward, geopolitical tensions and falling global interest rates may trigger both sharp and gradual support for commodities prices respectively. Three years of spiked inflation has increased the cost base for many producers, also potentially ratcheting up the floor price for many commodities.

One thing is certain - when it comes to commodities investing, there is an interesting and dynamic set of circumstances heading into 2025 and potentially into 2026. Prices will likely reflect 2024’s volatility, creating both dangers and opportunities for investors.

This makes the research we’re bringing you today very valuable. Major broker Citi has just released its latest commodity price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, covering base metals and iron ore, rare earths, energy and uranium, and precious metals. Let’s review the key takeaways.

Where are commodity prices headed in 2025 and 2026?

Base metals

• Changes to base metals price forecasts are minimal as Citi pushes out its expectation for a cyclical recovery in the global economy.

• US and global economic growth is likely to be “further challenged” by higher tariffs on imports into the USA, particularly from China. There is the risk of “tit-for-tat” tariffs.

• Chinese economic growth, as measured by GDP, should slow to 4.2% in 2025 (down from 5.0% in 2024) due to the negative impact of US tariffs, domestic “growth headwinds”, and lesser policy support for EVs.

• Rising capex costs plus incentive prices to provide price support more generally across the commodities sector.

Iron ore 

• High China port inventories and tighter margins at Chinese steel mills will likely lead to a subdued pricing environment.

Crude oil

• Citi did not provide a 2025-26 view in this particular research report but, in a recent report, it noted markets are balancing supply disruption risk in the Mideast and Russia-Ukraine, versus potential easing of these conflicts due to potential “dealmaking” by President-elect Trump from January.

• Citi also acknowledges “downside risks” from tariffs, plus Trump's pro-fossil fuel policies plus pressure on OPEC+ to unwind production cuts.

Coal

• Coking coal markets are likely to be mainly influenced by strong steel output in India, resulting in “an improvement” in metallurgical coal demand as the country increases its spending on infrastructure.

• Thermal coal markets are likely to be aided by seasonal winter restocking before normalising later in the year.

Uranium

• Citi did not provide a 2025-26 view, but in a recent research report, it noted that it had turned “tactically neutral from neutral-bullish” on the uranium price over the next 12 months.

• On the impact of a Trump administration, Citi believes it will likely lead to “higher volatility” in uranium prices, as well as “increasing uncertainty” in global markets.

• Despite the last item, Citi still projects uranium demand in the US to increase by approximately 15 million pounds by 2035.

Citi 2025 & 2026 Commodities Price Target Updates. Source: Citi Research (All data in this table and views in main article except for Brent crude oil and uranium were sourced from “Australia/NZ Metals & Mining DecQ update: bulks earnings get FX benefit, base metals mostly lower”, Citi Research, 11 December 2024) (click here for full size image)

Citi’s 2025 and 2026 price target changes are summarised in the table above. We have calculated change compared to their previous target, as well as change from the current price of each commodity.

The broker’s price forecasts suggest the greatest 12-month upside for uranium and neodymium and praseodymium (“NdPr”), which is commonly used as a proxy for rare earths prices. The greatest downside is seen in alumina, iron ore, and Brent crude oil prices.

Base metals prices, namely aluminium, copper, and nickel, will likely experience a subdued 2025 before recovering as much as 10% in 2026. Coal prices are also likely to be subdued in 2025, as are precious metals prices.

Citi’s ASX commodities stocks price target & ratings tweaks

Citi’s commodity price target forecast updates have triggered several earnings and valuation updates across its ASX commodity stocks coverage. The most notable amendments are two ratings changes:

• Coal producer New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) moves to BUY from neutral. Citi notes the company will benefit from a weaker Australian dollar.

• Diversified minerals producer South32 (ASX: S32) moves to NEUTRAL from buy (price target unchanged at $3.90). Citi removed the 20% discounted cash flow premium it was applying to the stock.

There were several price target changes, all increases, summarised below in order of greatest increase:

• NHC: +10.0% to $5.50, BUY

• Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO): +8.9% to $134, NEUTRAL

• Champion Iron (ASX: CIA): Target +8.8% to $7.40, BUY

• Fortescue (ASX: FMG): Target +8.2% to $21.00, NEUTRAL

• Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC): Target +3.8% to $8.30, BUY

• Deterra Royalties (ASX: DRR): Target +2.4% to $4.20, NEUTRAL

For the record, other ASX commodity stocks in Citi's coverage that did not receive a rating or price target update include:

• BHP Group (ASX: BHP): Target $46.00, BUY

• Stanmore Resources (ASX: SMR): Target $3.40, BUY

• Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR): Target $10.50, NEUTRAL

• 29METALS (ASX: 29M): Target $0.25, SELL

Citi's crude oil views from: "Oil Monitor: Crude and diesel prices gaining but rangebound, amid geopolitical push-pull between escalation ahead of potential talks", Citi Research, 20 November, 2024.

Citi's uranium views from: "Multi-Asset: Commodity & Equity views: Power demand/Trump/Russia’s export ban – Positive for Key Nuclear and Uranium Trends", Citi Research, 19 November, 2024.