ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 30th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 30. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 on track to close at all-time highs

[2:26 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is on track to close at fresh all-time highs, currently up 65 points or 0.75%.

After opening relatively flat, the market spent most of the day trending higher, with the 11:30 am inflation report providing rocket fuel for the rally.

Yield-sensitive and consumer-facing sectors surged on the cooler-than-expected inflation print, with current sector leaders including Real Estate (+1.35%), Consumer Staples (+1.25%), Financials (+1.16%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.13%).

S&P/ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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"RBA to cut in August"

[1:37 pm] AMP Economist My Bui says today's inflation reading has likely met the RBA's criteria for a rate cut, expecting four more rate cuts from here, taking the cash rate to 2.85% by May 2026.

"This should be the confirmation for the RBA that inflation is moving sustainably back into the middle of the target band and allows the Bank to deliver an August rate cut," noted Bui.

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Mineral Resources posts strong June quarter

[12:50 pm] Broker RBC is positive on the June quarter numbers from beaten-up lithium and iron ore bellwether Mineral Resources.

"We expect a positive response to MIN's 4Q result," the broker said. "MIN posted a strong operational finish to FY25. Mining services volumes beat, Wodgina unit costs took another step down, and Onslow continues to ramp-up, posting a June month exit run rate of 32Mt (100%). Onslow ramp-up guidance was (1QFY26) maintained, and FY26 guidance provided, which is as expected. Importantly, net debt has come in lower than expected on lower capex spend."

By Tom Richardson.

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Futures traders lift rate cut bets to 100%

[12:29 pm] An August interest rate cut is now fully priced or all but a certainty according to interest rate futures traders that are fully priced for a 25 basis point cut in August.

"The next question, therefore, is whether we’ll see any further rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Will there be 2-3 rates in total this year, as predicted by the market?," said Russel Chesler the head of investments and capital markets at VanEck.

"Given that the unemployment rate remains low and the trimmed mean is still towards the upper end of the 2-3% inflation band, it is still too early to forecast more cuts for this year.

“It’s also important to wait and see what the impact of previous rate cuts have been before introducing another one. The RBA has to accomplish a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation, keeping as many Australians as possible in the labour market, and ensuring they don’t overheat the economy."

By Tom Richardson.

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Shares jump on August interest rate cut bets, dollar flat

[12:20 pm] Shares have jumped 0.7% to a session high of 8762 points, after June quarter inflation forecasts met the market's expectations and paved the way for an August interest rate cut.

The interest rate sensitive real estate and financials sectors are performing the best, up 1.4% and 0.9% respectively.

CBA shares are up 1.5% to $176.95 to claw back some gains after a week-long sell-off on valuation worries.

FX traders have shrugged off the inflation data that was largely expected, with the Australian dollar trading sideways to buy US65.2 cents.

By Tom Richardson.

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Westpac calls for multiple rate cuts starting in August

[11:54 am] Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis says today's inflation data has firmed up the case for an August rate cut from the RBA. Westpac also now forecasts in November, February 2026 and May 2026.

"Today’s data removes any awkwardness posed by inflation remaining too high for the RBA’s comfort, at the same time that the labour market might be starting to ease again," Ellis told investors.

"RBA Governor Bullock understandably downplayed the pick-up in unemployment in the month of June, given the volatility in the data. Further softening in the labour market would sit uncomfortably with a decision to hold the cash rate at restrictive levels when underlying inflation is so close to target."

By Tom Richardson.

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June quarter inflation sets stage for rate cut, meets forecasts at 2.7%

[11:31 am] Australia's June quarter trimmed mean inflation - backing out volatile items - eased to 2.7% year-on-year in line with the market's forecasts and setting the stage for another Reserve Bank rate cut in August.

Headline inflation slowed to 2.1% well below the market's forecasts of 2.4%.

Services inflation dropped to its lowest since June 2022.

It was 3.3% to the June quarter, down from 3.7% to the March quarter due to easing price rises for rents and insurance.

Versus the prior comparable quarter in June 2024, the biggest price rise was alcohol and tobacco at 5.7%, with education costs up 5.5%.

At the other end of the scale, clothing and footwear costs eased to 1.2%, with recreation and culture costs up just 1.7% over the year.

Economists widely expected a print of 2.7% or lower would encourage the RBA to ease rates another 25 basis points from 3.85% to 3.6%.

Shares hit a session high on the news, up 0.4% to 8471 points.

By Tom Richardson.

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Pilbara and MinRes give back early gains

[10:59 am] Pilbara Minerals and MinRes have faded early gains, despite reporting operationally strong quarterly updates.

Pilbara opened 2.0% higher ($1.675), briefly up 3.8% ($1.74) and now down 0.5% ($1.67). Likewise, MinRes opened up 3.2% ($31.08) and now trading just 0.5% higher ($30.26).

While the results were largely positive, there were some pockets of weakness around metrics like realised lithium prices and debt levels.

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Appen and IGO slide

[10:45 am] Appen shares are down 12.7% ($0.96) in early trade after the company said FY25 revenue is "currently tracking towards the low end of the $235 million to $260 million range".

The company reported Q2 revenue down 6% to $51.9 million despite strong growth in its Chinese business (revenue up 77% to $23.7 million).

Meanwhile IGO shares opened 5.6% lower ($4.72), currently down 11.4% ($4.43). The company reported an operationally strong June quarter and full-year for lithium production and cash costs, though financials and write-offs weighed:

• Share of profit from TLEA JV of $561.5 million due to impairment of Kwinana assets

• "A further impairment of the Kwinana refinery assets of between $70-90m is expected, resulting in Train 1 being fully impaired."

• "Operational issues continue to impact Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery production, with full year production finishing below guidance."

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Small caps making moves

[10:27 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:18 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Atlas Arteria reports strong Q2 toll revenues

[9:51 am] Atlas Arteria reported a 10.7% increase in toll revenue for the June quarter vs. consensus expectations of 9.0%.

APRR delivered solid traffic results, boosted by Easter occurring in April this year instead of March last year. Dulles Greenway’s traffic recovery remains strong, aided by increased congestion on alternative routes. Additionally, proportionate toll revenue benefited from recent toll hikes and favorable foreign exchange movements.

The quarterly also noted the French government's support of the use of toll-roads model to maintain the nation's highway networks.

"It recommended continuing with a concession-based model, incorporating refinements such as smaller-scale concessions, shorter concession durations and profit-sharing mechanisms," the company said in a statement.

A draft "Framework Law" is expected to be released in late 2025.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Atlas Arteria (ALX)

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Appen tempers FY25 expectations

[9:42 am] Appen says FY25 revenue is "currently tracking towards the low end of the $235 million to $260 million range".

The announcement also noted: "In addition to limited visibility relating to specific timing for the resumption of large LLM projects, recent US policy uncertainty has also reduced the likelihood of generating meaningful short-term Government revenue."

For the June quarter, Appen reported:

• Revenue down 6% to $51.9m (1H25 revenue ex-Google up 2% to $102.1m)

• Strong China segment performance, with Q2 revenue up 77% to $23.7m

• Growth in China was offset by ongoing volatility and dynamic nature of the US AI market

• Cash balance of $60.9m as at 30 June 2025

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Appen (APX)

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IGO reports strong operational year

[9:34 am] IGO reported a relatively mixed June quarter and FY25 production report. Here are the key numbers for the full year:

• Spodumene production of 1,479kt vs. Goldman Sachs estimates of 1,493kt (0.9% miss)

• Spodumene cash cost of A$325/t vs. $321/t ests (1.2% higher than expected)

• Lithium hydroxide production of 6,782t

• Sales revenue of A$512.5m vs. $497m ests (3.1% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA of $14.4m vs. loss of $9m ests (positive $23.4m surprise)

In addition, the company guided to FY26 Greenbushes production of 1,500-1,650kt at cash costs of $310-360 a tonne vs. Goldman ests of 1,631kt at cash costs of $362 a tonne.

IGO also flagged a further impairment of the Kwinana refinery assets of between $70-90m, resulting in Train 1 being fully impaired.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: IGO (IGO)

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Droneshield reports Q2 results

[9:23 am] Droneshield reported tripe digit growth across most key metrics, an unsurprising outcome given its 294% year-to-date rally and recent streak of contract wins. Here are the key numbers for the June quarter:

• Revenue up 480% to $38.8 million

• $176.3 million of revenue already received or under committed purchase orders for 2025 delivery, already 3x of entire FY24 revenue

• SaaS revenues up 161% to $1.9 million

• Cash balance of $192 million, with no debt

• "Well placed to deliver on short notice", with $81 million of inventory in book value

• Pipeline of $2.3 billion (as of July 2025)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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MinRes reports FY25 operational performance

[9:18 am] Lots to unpack, so let's dive into the numbers for FY25.

• Pilbara Hub volumes of 9.7Mwmt vs. 9-10Mwmt guidance (2.1% beat), costs were also ~6.2% better-than-expected

• Onslow volumes of 8.0Mwmt vs. 7.8-8.0Mwmt guidance (1.3 beat), cots was also ~3% better-than-expected

• Mt Marion volumes of 203kdmt vs. 185-200kdmt guidance (5.5% beat) though costs of $902/dmt vs. guidance $870-970/dmt was a slight miss

• Wodgina volumes of 214kdmt vs. guidance 210-230kdmt (2.7% miss), costs relatively in-line

• Net debt as at 30 June 2025 expected to be $5.35bn, unclear if comparable to Citi estimates of $4.43bn

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: MinRes (MIN)

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Analysts upbeat on Sandfire

[9:09 am] Sandfire Resources delivered a strong Q4 report, ahead of market expectations as strong copper and zinc grades lifted production and cash flow. FY25 guidance was achieved, while FY26 guidance points to modest growth, with strong zinc contributions offsetting slightly lower copper output. The result highlighted operational strength at both its MATSA and Motheo operations, after facing disruptions in the March quarter.

Analysts were broadly positive, with average target prices hovering around $12:

• RBC maintained Outperform, target unchanged at $12.25. Q4 beat driven by higher grades; net debt surprised positively due to working capital and shipments, with FY26 output slightly more zinc-weighted and costs expected to rise.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, raised target from $10.80 to $11.30. FY25 largely in line; MATSA underperformed but was offset elsewhere, while Motheo costs are expected to rise.

• Jefferies maintained Hold, target unchanged at $12.00. Execution remained solid; MATSA gained from higher recovery, Motheo's recovery lifted grades, and net cash supports potential returns.

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Pilbara Minerals tops FY25 production guidance

[9:05 am] Pilbara Minerals continues to remind the market why its a best-in-class lithium miner, with FY25 production beating of its own guidance.

The 4Q25 figures were broadly ahead of market expectations, though realised prices were a little soft:

• Spodumene production of 221.3kdmt vs. 195.1kdmt ests (13.4% beat)

• Spodumene sales of 216.0kdmt vs. 196.5kdmt ests (9.9% beat)

• Unit opereating costs (FOB) of $397/dmt vs. $410/dmt ests (3.2% beat)

• Realised price (SC5.3) of $599/dmt vs. $628/dmt ests (4.6% miss)

For FY25, Pilbara Minerals reported:

• Spodumene production of 754.6kdmt vs. guidance of 700-740kdmt (4.8% beat at the midpoint)

• Unit operating cost of $627/dmt vs. guidance of $620-640/dmt (0.5% beat)

• Revenue down 38.5% to $769m

For FY26, the company guided to production of 820-870kt, at unit operating costs (FOB) of $560-600 a tonne, with $300-330 million in capex.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Analysts cut Greatland Gold targets

[8:57 am] The newly listed Greatland Gold tumbled 24% after its Q4 production report missed market expectations by ~10%, while its FY26 guidance across production, cost and capex was a massive miss.

Here are the key takeaways and changes from broker this morning:

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, lowered target from $8.40 to $7.20. FY26 guidance and higher capex were seen as disappointing, driving production downgrades and valuation cuts.

• Jarden maintained Overweight, lowered target from $6.20 to $5.70. Views guidance downgrade as poorly timed but sees capex as supportive of Telfer's longer life; share price drop seen as overdone.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral, lowered target from $7.40 to $6.65. FY26 guidance fell short of expectations, with drilling efforts aimed at resolving grade concerns and asset risks still reflected in valuation.

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Polynovo reports unaudited FY25 results

[8:53 am] Polynovo pre-announced its FY25 results after market close on Tuesday, here are the key numbers:

• Total sales up 28.9% to $118.6m

• US sales up 28.7% to $88.4m, rest of the world sales up 29.5% to $30.3m

• EBITDA guidance of $11.2-12.4m vs. $11.8m consensus (mid-point in-line with consensus)

• Cash position of $33.5m, up from $22m in March after capex and repayment of debt

• Cash flow from operations is expected to increase in FY26 as the profit momentum continues in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Polynovo (PNV)

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Earnings galore on Wall Street

[8:45 am] Massive day for corporate earnings (ahead of Microsoft and Meta earnings after US market close tomorrow, plus Amazon and Apple the day after). Here are a few high-profile ones of interest:

UPS (-10.5%) reported Q2 2025 net income of $1.28 billion, with earnings per share of $1.51, and adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share.

• Earnings: The results missed Wall Street's expectations of $1.56 per share and quarterly revenue of $20.85 billion, according to Zacks Consensus Estimate.

• Drivers: UPS continues executing its transformation strategy focused on higher-margin business segments while managing through network optimisation and operational efficiency improvements.

• Sector Commentary: CEO Carol Tomé noted concerns about trade policies, stating "Moving to the business climate outside of the US, trade follows policies, and generally tariffs are not good for trade."

Spotify (-11.5%) posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024.

• Earnings: The company significantly missed analyst expectations with an adjusted loss per share versus expected profits, with "outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance."

• Drivers: Currency headwinds were a major factor impacting results, though underlying subscriber growth and engagement metrics likely remained solid.

• Sector Commentary: Streaming companies are facing currency volatility challenges and increased competition, while navigating the shift toward higher-margin advertising revenue streams.

P&G (-0.3%) reported net income of $3.62 billion, or $1.48 per share for Q4 ended June 30, with revenue rising 2% to $20.89 billion versus $20.82 billion expected.

• Earnings: EPS of $1.48 versus $1.42 expected and revenue of $20.89 billion vs. $20.82 billion expected, both beating analyst estimates.

• Drivers: P&G announced it will see a $1 billion hit to profits in its new fiscal year as a result of tariffs.

• Sector Commentary: Consumer goods companies are facing tariff pressures and inflationary challenges, though P&G's premium brand positioning continues to provide pricing power.

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Good morning!

[8:37 am] ASX 200 futures are down 7pts (-0.08%) after the S&P 500 snapped a six-day win streak and eased from record levels overnight.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.