ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 29th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 29. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 rallies as all sectors trade higher

[2:05 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is currently up 1.04%, off session highs of 1.55%, on track to finish higher for a third straight session for a cumulative 3.0% gain.

Every sector is trading higher and, much like the overnight session on Wall Street, defensives and consumer-facing names are leading. Healthcare (+4.2%), Discretionary (+2.4%), Staples (+2.3%) and Telcos (+1.7%) are the standouts, while Real Estate (+0.1%) and Financials (+0.2%) lag. Breadth is still a little patchy, with 133 constituents higher (66%), and the stocks in the red are mostly uranium, lithium, engineering and construction, gold, airlines and utilities names.

The index hit its session high of 1.55% just after the 11:30am CPI print, which showed:

• Annual CPI up 3.8% vs 4.0% ests, easing from 4.0% in May, with the monthly rate at -0.1% vs 0.2% ests

• Trimmed mean steady at 3.6% vs 3.7% ests, unchanged from May, with the monthly figure at 0.3% vs 0.4% ests

• Housing the largest contributor at 6.8%, driven by electricity up 22.4% as government rebates ended and new dwellings up 5.8%, the highest in almost three years

• Transport moderated to 0.1% from 3.3%, as automotive fuel fell 10.9% in the month on lower world oil prices amid Middle East stabilisation

• Recreation and culture rose 3.3% from 2.4%, driven by holiday travel and accommodation up 4.6% on northern-hemisphere peak season and higher jet fuel

• June quarter CPI up 0.6%, with the quarterly trimmed mean at 0.8%

The cooler-than-expected print drove the Aussie 2-year yield down 10bp to 4.5%, though it remains elevated and rangebound. And while the KOSPI is down another 8.0% today (now off 22% over the last four sessions), equity markets look to be undergoing a rotation rather than a broad risk-off, with defensives and consumer stocks that were already bottoming emerging as the clear beneficiaries.

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Rio Tinto 1H26 earnings call highlights

[1:55 pm] Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott framed the result as evidence of the "stronger, sharper, simpler" strategy set out at December's Capital Markets Day.

• On productivity: "We've already banked $870 million to the end of June", against an initial $650m target, with the year-end run rate now targeted at $1.8bn, "almost triple where we were just seven months ago"

• On the nature of the program: "This is not a top down exercise where we simply squeeze budgets", with more than 80 initiatives codified through a new management operating system

• On diversification: Nearly 60% of first-half EBITDA came from copper, aluminium and lithium, positioned "right at the heart of" electrification, AI and traditional demand

• On copper growth: Targeting 1Mt of copper by 2030, with OT ramping toward 500koz a year and Kennecott targeting 40-50% production growth

• On cash release: Targeting $5bn of divestment announcements this year within a broader pipeline exceeding $10bn, stressing "we will make decisions... and make sure that we get full value"

• On setbacks: A furnace breach at Kennecott in late June will shift some metal sales and cash flows into 2027, while IOC volumes stayed challenged by pit and asset health

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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Analysts' take on Web Travel

[1:10 pm] Web Travel Group's H1 trading guidance on Tuesday came in ahead of expectations, with revenue margin topping both the prior period and consensus and an EBITDA range beating consensus at the midpoint, alongside an on-market buy-back of up to $90 million. The stock rallied 17.1% on the day.

• UBS retained Buy, maintained target at $4.60: sees the margin strategy gaining traction through direct contracting and the underlying earnings beat as stronger than the headline, with the buy-back accretive to per share earnings.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, maintained target at $5.00: expects a positive share price reaction and views the buy-back as a meaningful capital return, while flagging macro slowdown and direct bookings as risks and the August AGM as the next catalyst.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, maintained target at $6.00: sees the update as de-risking earnings into the November result and the stock as a safe haven amid volatility, though views the Spanish tax audit as an ongoing overhang.

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Korea-Hong Kong correlation signals rapid unwind of chip-funded short trade

[1:09 pm] Correlation data suggests a trade that shorted Hong Kong tech to fund bets on Korean chipmakers is quickly reversing.

• Kospi again negatively correlated with the Hang Seng Tech Index on a rolling 20-day basis, meaning gains in one align with losses in the other

• Pattern points to investors selling the Kospi, heavy in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while covering shorts in Hong Kong tech

• Alibaba and Tencent among the names being covered, having been shorted earlier this year to raise funds for Korea's chip giants

Source: Bloomberg

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Analysts' take on Viva Energy

[12:15 pm] Viva Energy's H1 trading update on Tuesday guided group earnings materially above consensus with beats across each division, which management attributed to favourable hedging and term supply arrangements through Vitol amid global energy market volatility, alongside the Geelong refinery's recovery towards normal capacity and elevated regional refining margins. The stock rallied 8.6% on the day, and up a further 3.7% at the time of writing.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, raised target from $2.60 to $2.75: lifted full year forecasts on retail fuel strength and the refinery's return to near normal capacity, viewing the Coles exit as a critical milestone unlocking synergies.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, raised target from $3.40 to $3.70: raised H2 refining margins on conflict disruptions while viewing the commercial strength as a largely nonrecurring hedging benefit, with elevated margins driving accelerated net debt reduction.

• UBS retained Buy, raised target from $2.70 to $2.80: maintained a cautious stance despite materially upgrading earnings, deeming the commercial hedging benefit unlikely to repeat and expecting refining margins to normalise progressively next year.

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Analysts' take on Genesis Minerals

[11:36 am] Genesis Minerals closed the financial year with record annual output that landed within guidance for a third consecutive year, with gold sales beating expectations on inventory drawdown to lift revenue above consensus, though costs settled higher than most forecasts on increased mining volumes and inventory adjustments.

The Q4/full-year update was released on Tuesday, which noted:

• Q4 gold production of 70.8koz at AISC of $2,797/oz vs $2,646/oz ests (6% higher costs)

• Q4 gold sales of 77.8koz vs 70.5koz ests (10% beat), generating revenue of $480.4m

• Q4 realised price of A$6,175/oz vs A$6,320/oz ests (2% miss)

• Record FY26 production of 285,402oz at AISC of $2,670/oz, within guidance, with FY26 unaudited underlying NPAT of $540-550m

Analysts broadly framed the quarter as a sales and revenue beat offset by a cost miss, trimming targets across most of coverage, but universally viewed maiden standalone guidance as secondary to the pending Vault Minerals merger, with several noting the outlook was almost meaningless given the transformation the deal would bring.

• Ord Minnett retained Buy, lowered target from $7.00 to $6.70: viewed the quarter and outlook as slightly softer than expected, but confirmed compelling strategic logic for the merger and attractive combined entity valuation metrics versus ASX peers.

• Bell Potter retained Buy, lowered target from $9.75 to $9.20: argued guidance was rendered almost meaningless by the pending Vault transformation, with the merger giving the company a leave pass on near term momentum despite a standalone outlook implying material cash drawdown at spot.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, lowered target from $7.70 to $7.40: noted cash costs came in above expectations on unfavourable inventory charges, with the merged group implying a production uplift and lower costs while trading at a discount to peers.

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Singapore stocks head for best month since 2020 as banks rally

[11:36 am] Singapore's benchmark is on track for its strongest month in nearly six years, powered by gains in banking heavyweights.

• Straits Times Index up 8.6% in July, poised for its best month since November 2020

• DBS and OCBC the biggest boosts, both posting double-digit gains

• Bank-heavy index acting as a defensive haven as AI-trade concerns roil other markets, aided by economic and political stability and attractive dividend yields

• Fidelity's Yeo Sui Chuan sees a good balance of growth and valuations, with domestic banks offering strong yields while benefiting from regional wealth flows and export growth

Source: Bloomberg

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Stocks on the move: Cyclopharm surges on guidelines win, Liontown slips on cost miss

[11:33 am] A busy day of quarterly reports and news drove sharp moves across resources and healthcare names.

• Cyclopharm (+13.4%): Rallied after its Technegas lung ventilation agent was named "generally preferred when available" in the first update to US lung imaging guidance in 14 years, jointly published by four nuclear medicine societies and expected to drive broader institutional adoption across US hospitals

• Rio Tinto (+5.4%): Jumped after 1H26 underlying earnings rose 43% to $6.9bn, 1% ahead of consensus, and it lifted its interim dividend 43% to $3.4bn, with underlying EBITDA up 28% and free cash flow up 75% on stronger copper, aluminium and lithium

• MinRes (+3.6%): Gained on a June quarter shipments beat, with iron ore of 8.41Mt coming in 8% ahead of consensus and record spodumene shipments of 158kdmt topping ests by 35%, plus liquidity up $0.6bn to $2.4bn and net debt lower

• Northern Star (+1.5%): Firmed as Q4 production of 436.2koz landed 4% ahead of consensus at AISC of $2,651/oz, 5% below the expected $2,866, with underlying FCF of $206m against an expected outflow and KCGM expansion commissioning on schedule

• Liontown (-8.3%): Fell as June quarter unit costs of $995/t ran 12% above the $889 consensus and realised pricing of US$1,880/dmt missed the US$2,189 est by 14%, overshadowing a $137m cash build and in-line production of 103.1kdmt

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Healthcare stocks surge

[11:15 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare index is up 3.7%, now up 7.5% in the last three sessions in a clear pivot towards more value-oriented pockets of the market. The sector is trading ~1.2% off its recent 6 July high but still down 19.6% year-to-date.

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ASX 200 rallies to highest since 4 March

[11:11 am] A pivot to defensives and value on Wall Street has followed through to local equities, with the ASX 200 up 1.00% to the highest since 4 March. The index has now rallied 3% in the last three sessions and up 3.5% year-to-date.

Today's gains are headlined by consumer-facing sectors like Staples, Discretionary and Telcos. While Healthcare stocks top the leaderboard, up 3.7%.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:25 am] Software stocks catch a strong bid at the open, while Liontown tumbles after its Q4 costs land well-above market expectations.

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Mineral Resources beats on June quarter shipments across iron ore and lithium

[10:24 am] Mineral Resources delivered June quarter volumes well ahead of estimates and met or exceeded FY26 guidance across all segments. The stock is up 5.6% to $56.05 in early trade.

• Q4 iron ore shipments (attrib) of 8.41Mt vs 7.77Mt ests (8% beat), led by Onslow at 5.71Mt and Pilbara at 2.70Mt

• Q4 spodumene shipments of 158kdmt SC6 vs 117kdmt ests (35% beat), at a realised price of US$2,425/dmt, up 15% qoq

• Lithium unit costs below expectations, with Mt Marion at $878/dmt vs $1,000 ests and Wodgina at $714/dmt vs $826 ests

• Mining services volume of 94Mt vs 82Mt ests (15% beat), capping record FY26 volumes of 341Mt, up 22%

• Iron ore realised price of $87/dmt vs $89 ests, with FY26 Onslow FOB cost of $52/wmt below guidance

• Liquidity strengthened to $2.4bn, up $0.6bn qoq, with net debt down $0.2bn to about $4.3bn on strong free cash flow

Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)

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Oil surges as US repels Iran attack and Saudi facilities targeted again

[10:02 am] Oil rebounded from a three-day slide after fresh Middle East fighting renewed threats to energy flows.

• WTI rose as much as 5% to top $83 a barrel, paring a 14% drop over the prior three sessions

• US military intercepted an Iranian "attempted surprise attack" on US troops in the Middle East

• Iraqi militias fired drones at Saudi oil facilities in the Eastern Region for a second day, with the Saudi Defence Ministry saying it intercepted them

• Hormuz flows still constrained, with Iran telling Oman a proposed 50/50 split of the waterway would not address its concerns

• Trump met Netanyahu seeking to avoid renewed bombing, with Israel signalling it favours a negotiated settlement

• US crude stockpiles fell 3.3m barrels last week per API, including a draw at Cushing, with official data due Wednesday

Source: Bloomberg

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Perpetual rejects EQT's $22.50 proposal but opens door to due diligence

[10:01 am] Perpetual's board has concluded EQT's revised $22.50 per share proposal is not in shareholders' best interests, while offering limited access to information.

• Board rejects EQT's revised $22.50 per share proposal as not in the best interests of shareholders, after financial and legal advice

• Offers EQT limited non-public information on a non-exclusive basis to determine whether it can formulate an improved proposal

• No guarantee of a binding or recommendable offer, with access conditional on EQT signing confidentiality and standstill agreements

• Proposal pitched at a premium to Perpetual's last close of $20.18

• Board reaffirmed confidence in its strategy, including the Simplification Program and the pending sale of Wealth Management, with FY26 results due 27 August

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

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Lycopodium wins ~$22m detailed engineering contract for PLS Pilgangoora expansion

[9:53 am] Lycopodium has been awarded a detailed engineering services contract by PLS for the P2000 expansion at its Pilgangoora lithium operation.

• Contract valued at ~$22m, with work commencing immediately

• Covers Wet Plant design for the P2000 Expansion Project, taking PLS toward a final investment decision

• Follows Lycopodium's earlier FEED delivery for the Wet Plant, extending a multi-year relationship with PLS at Pilgangoora

• P2000, if approved, would add a new processing plant lifting capacity to about 2Mtpa of spodumene concentrate

Company page: Lycopodium (LYL)

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Liontown holds cash-building June quarter but costs run above expectations

[9:26 am] Liontown lifted cash to $561 million in the June quarter, though unit costs and realised pricing came in weaker than estimates.

• Q4 spodumene production of 103.1kdmt vs 103.3kdmt ests (in line)

• Q4 concentrate sales of 108.5kdmt vs 112.5kdmt ests (4% miss)

• Average realised price of US$1,880/dmt SC6 vs US$2,189 ests (14% miss)

• Unit operating costs (FOB) of $995/t vs $889 ests (12% higher)

• Net cash build of $137m lifted cash to $560.6m

• FY27 guidance of 390-440kdmt at FOB unit costs of $1,050-1,250/t, with total capex of $320-370m, plus record underground development of 3,316m building toward a 2.8Mtpa run-rate by end-FY27

Company page: Liontown (LTR)

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Greatland beats FY26 guidance with June quarter costs well below expectations

[9:25 am] Greatland delivered June quarter AISC far below estimates and outperformed FY26 production and cost guidance, closing the year debt free with $1.29bn cash.

• Q4 AISC of $2,312/oz vs $2,699/oz ests (14% beat)

• Q4 operating cash flow of $302m, down from $453m the prior quarter

• FY26 production of 328,987oz at AISC of $2,179/oz, beating guidance of 260-310koz at $2,400-2,800/oz

• Closing cash of $1.289bn, up from $1.208bn at end-March, debt free

• FY27 guidance of 260-300koz at AISC of $2,900-3,330/oz, with output lower on a greater proportion of lower-grade stockpiles in the ore feed

• Telfer Ore Reserve upgraded 150% to 1.8Moz, lifting group reserves to 5.0Moz, with Havieron pre-production spend set to begin and first gold expected around FY29

Company page: Greatland Resources (GGP)

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Ramelius beats on June quarter costs, defers FY27 guidance to September

[9:20 am] Ramelius delivered June quarter AISC well below expectations and strong free cash flow, with FY27 guidance now due later in the September quarter.

• Q4 gold sales of 51.8koz vs 51.0koz ests (2% beat), on pre-reported production of 53.5koz

• Q4 AISC of $1,973/oz vs $2,087/oz ests (5% beat)

• Q4 underlying FCF of $138.3m, with operating cash flow of $191.2m and cash and gold of $649.6m

• FY26 production of 192.2koz at AISC of $1,983/oz, meeting production guidance for a sixth straight year and inside the $1,900-2,050/oz cost range

• FY26 underlying FCF of $393.3m, with $30.5m of buybacks in the quarter taking the total to $140.7m, or 56% of the $250m program

• FY27 guidance and outlook to FY30 deferred to later in the September quarter, with Penny extending into the December quarter

Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

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Northern Star beats on June quarter output with KCGM expansion commissioning underway

[9:15 am] Northern Star delivered June quarter gold production and costs well ahead of expectations as its KCGM mill expansion began commissioning.

• Q4 gold production of 436.2koz vs 419.5koz ests (4% beat)

• Q4 group AISC of $2,651/oz vs $2,866/oz ests (7.5% beat)

• Underlying FCF of $206m vs an expected $33m outflow

• Gold revenue of $2.19bn vs $2.18bn ests (in line)

• KCGM Stage 1 expansion to 27Mtpa commissioning on schedule, with tie-in planned for September and Stage 2 due late 1H FY27 for a 1-2% recovery uplift

• Cash and bullion of $1,235m after $129m of buybacks, with FY27 guidance now deferred to 20 August alongside FY26 results

Company page: Northern Star Resources (NST)

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Cyclopharm's Technegas named preferred ventilation agent in first US lung imaging update in 14 years

[9:14 am] New international guidelines have specifically named Cyclopharm's Technegas as the preferred lung ventilation agent, breaking with usual brand-neutral convention.

• Technegas named "generally preferred when available" in the first update to US lung ventilation guidance in 14 years, replacing the 2012 standard

• Guidelines break brand-neutral convention, giving Technegas its own dedicated section and glossary entry while competitors appear under general headings

• Shift to 3D imaging endorsed, a technique suited to Technegas and where the guidelines note limitations of competing agents

• Radiation dose advantage cited, with a Technegas scan delivering a breast dose around 70 times lower than a CT pulmonary angiogram, favouring five patient groups including pre-menopausal and pregnant patients

• Jointly published by four nuclear medicine societies across the US, Europe and ANZ, expected to support broader institutional adoption across US hospitals

Company page: Cyclopharm (CYC)

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Mach7 posts third straight quarter of positive operating cash flow, ARR up 7.6%

[9:14 am] Mach7 delivered another quarter of positive operating cash flow and recurring revenue growth, reaffirming FY26 guidance.

• Operating cash flow of $1.1m in Q4, a third consecutive positive quarter

• ARR run rate of $23.5m at 30 June, up 7.6% in constant currency, though CARR of $25.5m fell 8.9% on the prior year after two contract losses earlier in FY26

• Cash of $19.9m and no debt at 30 June, up 4% on the $19.2m at end-Q3

• Cash receipts of $7.4m in Q4, down 7.9% on Q3 on payment timing differences

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed for revenue about 15% below FY25 on delayed capital deal conversion, with operating expenses about 10% lower

• New five-year contracts signed including a $2.8m expansion licence and a $1.7m eUnity deal with AMRADNET, plus a Howard Medical partnership adding indirect access to 3,700-plus hospitals

Company page: Mach7 Technologies (M7T)

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Rio Tinto lifts dividend 43% as copper, aluminium and lithium fire up first-half earnings

[9:08 am] Rio Tinto posted a step-change in first-half earnings ahead of estimates and lifted its interim dividend sharply on stronger cash flow.

• Underlying earnings up 43% to $6.9bn vs $6.81bn ests (1% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 28% to $14.8bn vs $14.79bn ests (in line)

  • Copper EBITDA of $5.70bn vs $5.35bn ests (7% beat)

  • Iron ore EBITDA of $6.8bn vs $6.97bn ests (2% miss)

  • Aluminium & Lithium EBITDA of $3.3bn vs $3.35bn ests (1% miss)

• Interim ordinary dividend up 43% to $3.4bn, at a 50% payout ratio

• Free cash flow up 75% to $3.8bn, with operating cash flow up 32% to $9.2bn

• Profit after tax up 47% to $6.7bn, driving underlying ROCE of 17%

• CuEq production up 3%, with Copper, Aluminium and Lithium now more than 50% of underlying EBITDA, and $870m of productivity benefits banked toward a $1.8bn annualised run-rate by year-end

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

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West African Resources beats on costs with record quarterly gold output

[9:04 am] West African Resources delivered record June quarter production at an AISC well below expectations, keeping it on track for full-year guidance.

• AISC of US$1,730/oz, better than the US$1,971/oz preliminary figure

• Record Q2 gold production of 125.2koz, with sales of 110.7koz at a realised price of US$4,556/oz

• Operating cash flow of $249.4m for the quarter, with a $876.3m cash balance plus about $247m of unsold bullion at period end

• On track for FY guidance of 430-490koz at AISC under US$1,900/oz, with year-to-date output of 232,905oz at AISC of US$1,823/oz

• M5 underground drilling hits included 29m at 16.4g/t and 27m at 6.7g/t, with Toega underground results due later in Q3

• Société de Participation Minière du Burkina Faso talks continue over its acquisition of a 25% stake in the Kiaka Project

Company page: West African Resources (WAF)

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Vault Minerals delivers in-line June quarter, guides FY27 above 355koz

[9:03 am] Vault Minerals' June quarter gold output matched its preliminary report, with FY27 guidance set and a merger with Genesis Minerals announced.

• Q4 gold production of 89,338oz, in line with the pre-reported figure, with sales of 87.9koz vs 90.3koz preliminary

• AISC of A$2,968/oz, better than the A$3,134/oz preliminary figure, at an achieved gold price of A$6,311/oz

• FY27 guidance of 355-375koz at AISC of $3,150-3,350/oz, rising to 380-400koz in FY28 and back to 355-375koz in FY29

• KoTH Stage 2 plant upgrade ahead of schedule for September 2026 commissioning, lifting throughput about 50% and supporting a 34% uplift in Leonora output

• Free cash flow of $219m for the quarter, closing FY26 with cash and bullion of $842m after returning $74.3m to shareholders and settling remaining hedges for $31.2m

• Merger with Genesis Minerals announced to create a new gold major from complementary assets with potential operation

Company page: Vault Minerals (VAU)

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Adore Beauty CFO resigns as interim replacement steps in

[9:02 am] Adore Beauty's chief financial officer Marcus Crowe has resigned for personal reasons, with an interim successor appointed immediately.

• CFO and joint company secretary Marcus Crowe has resigned for personal reasons, staying on for a transition period to support the handover

• Kylie Archer appointed interim CFO on a contract basis, effective immediately, bringing listed-company CFO and ASX reporting experience

• Permanent CFO search underway, with the recruitment process now commenced

Company page: Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

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Chip rout deepens as China competition and AI debt fears drive Nasdaq toward correction

[8:53 am] A worsening semiconductor selloff pushed the Nasdaq 100 to the brink of a correction as investors questioned the payoff from Big Tech's AI spending.

• MSCI World Semiconductor index down 16% this month, its worst run since 2022, though still up about 28% for the year

• Nasdaq 100 down about 9.5% from its 2 June record, just shy of correction territory, while the Philadelphia SOX has lost 25% since its 22 June high, into bear-market range

• South Korea's Kospi sank 11%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each down more than 14%, while US names Intel, AMD, Sandisk, Western Digital and Seagate fell more than 5%

• China competition in focus after a state-backed firm reportedly began mass producing immersion DUV lithography tools and CXMT completed its memory-chip IPO, pressuring ASML down 3.4%

• Circular AI-deal fears rising, with Nvidia's $750bn in infrastructure deals stoking debt concerns and the cost of protecting its debt against default surging a record on Monday

• Meta, Amazon and Microsoft report this week, with capex plans set to determine direction after Alphabet's first-ever negative free cash flow last week

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Trump says new tariffs achieve the same result as those struck down by the court

[8:52 am] Trump said his latest tariffs replicate the regime the Supreme Court ruled illegal, remarks now being used against him in a fresh lawsuit.

• Trump said new tariffs are "doing the same thing" as the duties the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year, via a Fox News interview

• Comments now cited in a federal lawsuit by the Liberty Justice Center, which argues the new tariffs preserve the same regime the courts have rejected

• Friday's duties of 10%-12.5% on goods from 80-plus countries were brought under Section 301, on grounds those partners failed to curb forced labour

• Timing coincided with the lapse of the near-global 10% tariff at its 150-day limit, which the administration says was to avoid complexity, not to serve as a replacement

• Trump signalled he would rather exit USMCA than renegotiate, having declined to renew the Canada-Mexico deal this month

• Dismissed concerns tariffs could hurt the economy, claiming they have "made this country a fortune"

Source: CNBC

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Coca-Cola beats and lifts FY26 guidance as volumes grow 5%

[8:51 am] Coca-Cola topped Q2 estimates on revenue, earnings and margins and raised its full-year outlook. The stock rallied 5.0% overnight to all-time highs, now up 31.6% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 7% to $13.4bn vs $13.16bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to $0.97 vs $0.93 ests (4% beat)

• Comparable operating margin of 35.6% vs 35% ests, up 90bp

• FY26 comparable EPS growth guidance raised to 9%-10%, with organic revenue growth of about 5% and free cash flow of about $12.4bn

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Visa beats on revenue and earnings as payments volume grows 10%

[8:50 am] Visa's fiscal third quarter topped estimates, driven by double-digit growth in payments and cross-border volumes. Shares closed 1.1% higher, up 4.0% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 14% to $11.6bn vs $11.39bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to $3.32 vs $3.23 ests (3% beat)

• Payments volume up 10% and cross-border volume up 13%

• Data processing revenue up 17% to $6.0bn, with service revenue up 14% to $4.9bn and international transaction revenue up 6% to $3.9bn

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PayPal beats and lifts FY26 profit guidance on Venmo and Braintree momentum

[8:48 am] PayPal topped revenue and earnings estimates and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to slightly positive growth.

• Revenue up 5% to $8.68bn vs $8.47bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS down 1% to $1.38 vs $1.28 ests (8% beat)

• Total payment volume up 10% to $486.4bn vs $468.5bn ests (4% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to ~$5.38 vs $5.31 ests, shifting from a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth

• Free cash flow up 157% to $1.8bn, with non-GAAP operating income down 8% to $1.5bn and margin down 248bp to 17.4%

• $1.5bn of buybacks in the quarter (33m shares), taking trailing 12-month buybacks to $6.0bn (111m shares)

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Apple briefly tops $5 trillion as low-capex bet wins investors

[8:43 am] Apple touched a $5 trillion market cap for the first time, a day after overtaking Nvidia as the world's most valuable company.

• Apple briefly hit $5 trillion on Tuesday, reaching a high of $342.89 before closing at $340.08, just under the threshold

• Shares up 25% this year, outpacing mega-cap peers, versus Nvidia's 6% gain despite Nvidia hitting $5 trillion first in October

• Low capex the key driver, with Apple leaning on Google cloud and AI while hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions into AI build-outs and turn cash flow negative

• Rally holding despite device price hikes from the global memory shortage, with new leasing program Upgrade letting US customers rent iPhones

• Thursday's earnings call is Tim Cook's last as CEO, with John Ternus taking over on 1 September

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JPMorgan turns tactically bullish as in-house buy signal flashes

[8:40 am] JPMorgan's market intelligence team says its tactical positioning monitor is pointing to material upside for the S&P 500.

• Tactical positioning monitor "now flashing a buy-signal", historically a marker the S&P 500 is set to gain, per Andrew Tyler's team

• Key tailwinds cited as lower bond yields, a weaker US dollar and strong corporate earnings, aided by easing US-Iran tensions and an expected Fed hold this week

• Semiconductor crowding flagged as a risk, with AI spending "no longer an automatic win" for chipmakers and infrastructure providers

• US-Iran war outlook named as the other main risk to the bullish call

• Consumer backdrop still firm, supported by rising household net worth, higher checking balances, strong retail sales and little credit stress

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 74 pts (+0.83%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with a clear rotation into defensive and value-oriented pockets of the market

• Healthcare (+2.3%), Staples (+1.96%), Materials (+1.66%) and Communications (+1.64%) sectors rallied on Wall Street, as lower oil and yields broaden market gains 

• The AI trade cracked in Asia. Korea's KOSPI triggered its eighth circuit breaker of the year and Samsung posted its worst day in almost two decades, as circular-financing worries collided with fresh evidence of Chinese progress in chipmaking equipment

• Brent capped its worst three-day run since 2020 as Iran opened Strait of Hormuz talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman