ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 29th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 29. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Liontown holds cash-building June quarter but costs run above expectations

[9:26 am] Liontown lifted cash to $561 million in the June quarter, though unit costs and realised pricing came in weaker than estimates.

• Q4 spodumene production of 103.1kdmt vs 103.3kdmt ests (in line)

• Q4 concentrate sales of 108.5kdmt vs 112.5kdmt ests (4% miss)

• Average realised price of US$1,880/dmt SC6 vs US$2,189 ests (14% miss)

• Unit operating costs (FOB) of $995/t vs $889 ests (12% higher)

• Net cash build of $137m lifted cash to $560.6m

• FY27 guidance of 390-440kdmt at FOB unit costs of $1,050-1,250/t, with total capex of $320-370m, plus record underground development of 3,316m building toward a 2.8Mtpa run-rate by end-FY27

Company page: Liontown (LTR)

Greatland beats FY26 guidance with June quarter costs well below expectations

[9:25 am] Greatland delivered June quarter AISC far below estimates and outperformed FY26 production and cost guidance, closing the year debt free with $1.29bn cash.

• Q4 AISC of $2,312/oz vs $2,699/oz ests (14% beat)

• Q4 operating cash flow of $302m, down from $453m the prior quarter

• FY26 production of 328,987oz at AISC of $2,179/oz, beating guidance of 260-310koz at $2,400-2,800/oz

• Closing cash of $1.289bn, up from $1.208bn at end-March, debt free

• FY27 guidance of 260-300koz at AISC of $2,900-3,330/oz, with output lower on a greater proportion of lower-grade stockpiles in the ore feed

• Telfer Ore Reserve upgraded 150% to 1.8Moz, lifting group reserves to 5.0Moz, with Havieron pre-production spend set to begin and first gold expected around FY29

Company page: Greatland Resources (GGP)

Ramelius beats on June quarter costs, defers FY27 guidance to September

[9:20 am] Ramelius delivered June quarter AISC well below expectations and strong free cash flow, with FY27 guidance now due later in the September quarter.

• Q4 gold sales of 51.8koz vs 51.0koz ests (2% beat), on pre-reported production of 53.5koz

• Q4 AISC of $1,973/oz vs $2,087/oz ests (5% beat)

• Q4 underlying FCF of $138.3m, with operating cash flow of $191.2m and cash and gold of $649.6m

• FY26 production of 192.2koz at AISC of $1,983/oz, meeting production guidance for a sixth straight year and inside the $1,900-2,050/oz cost range

• FY26 underlying FCF of $393.3m, with $30.5m of buybacks in the quarter taking the total to $140.7m, or 56% of the $250m program

• FY27 guidance and outlook to FY30 deferred to later in the September quarter, with Penny extending into the December quarter

Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

Northern Star beats on June quarter output with KCGM expansion commissioning underway

[9:15 am] Northern Star delivered June quarter gold production and costs well ahead of expectations as its KCGM mill expansion began commissioning.

• Q4 gold production of 436.2koz vs 419.5koz ests (4% beat)

• Q4 group AISC of $2,651/oz vs $2,866/oz ests (7.5% beat)

• Underlying FCF of $206m vs an expected $33m outflow

• Gold revenue of $2.19bn vs $2.18bn ests (in line)

• KCGM Stage 1 expansion to 27Mtpa commissioning on schedule, with tie-in planned for September and Stage 2 due late 1H FY27 for a 1-2% recovery uplift

• Cash and bullion of $1,235m after $129m of buybacks, with FY27 guidance now deferred to 20 August alongside FY26 results

Company page: Northern Star Resources (NST)

Cyclopharm's Technegas named preferred ventilation agent in first US lung imaging update in 14 years

[9:14 am] New international guidelines have specifically named Cyclopharm's Technegas as the preferred lung ventilation agent, breaking with usual brand-neutral convention.

• Technegas named "generally preferred when available" in the first update to US lung ventilation guidance in 14 years, replacing the 2012 standard

• Guidelines break brand-neutral convention, giving Technegas its own dedicated section and glossary entry while competitors appear under general headings

• Shift to 3D imaging endorsed, a technique suited to Technegas and where the guidelines note limitations of competing agents

• Radiation dose advantage cited, with a Technegas scan delivering a breast dose around 70 times lower than a CT pulmonary angiogram, favouring five patient groups including pre-menopausal and pregnant patients

• Jointly published by four nuclear medicine societies across the US, Europe and ANZ, expected to support broader institutional adoption across US hospitals

Company page: Cyclopharm (CYC)

Mach7 posts third straight quarter of positive operating cash flow, ARR up 7.6%

[9:14 am] Mach7 delivered another quarter of positive operating cash flow and recurring revenue growth, reaffirming FY26 guidance.

• Operating cash flow of $1.1m in Q4, a third consecutive positive quarter

• ARR run rate of $23.5m at 30 June, up 7.6% in constant currency, though CARR of $25.5m fell 8.9% on the prior year after two contract losses earlier in FY26

• Cash of $19.9m and no debt at 30 June, up 4% on the $19.2m at end-Q3

• Cash receipts of $7.4m in Q4, down 7.9% on Q3 on payment timing differences

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed for revenue about 15% below FY25 on delayed capital deal conversion, with operating expenses about 10% lower

• New five-year contracts signed including a $2.8m expansion licence and a $1.7m eUnity deal with AMRADNET, plus a Howard Medical partnership adding indirect access to 3,700-plus hospitals

Company page: Mach7 Technologies (M7T)

Rio Tinto lifts dividend 43% as copper, aluminium and lithium fire up first-half earnings

[9:08 am] Rio Tinto posted a step-change in first-half earnings ahead of estimates and lifted its interim dividend sharply on stronger cash flow.

• Underlying earnings up 43% to $6.9bn vs $6.81bn ests (1% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 28% to $14.8bn vs $14.79bn ests (in line)

  • Copper EBITDA of $5.70bn vs $5.35bn ests (7% beat)

  • Iron ore EBITDA of $6.8bn vs $6.97bn ests (2% miss)

  • Aluminium & Lithium EBITDA of $3.3bn vs $3.35bn ests (1% miss)

• Interim ordinary dividend up 43% to $3.4bn, at a 50% payout ratio

• Free cash flow up 75% to $3.8bn, with operating cash flow up 32% to $9.2bn

• Profit after tax up 47% to $6.7bn, driving underlying ROCE of 17%

• CuEq production up 3%, with Copper, Aluminium and Lithium now more than 50% of underlying EBITDA, and $870m of productivity benefits banked toward a $1.8bn annualised run-rate by year-end

Company page: Rio Tinto (RIO)

West African Resources beats on costs with record quarterly gold output

[9:04 am] West African Resources delivered record June quarter production at an AISC well below expectations, keeping it on track for full-year guidance.

• AISC of US$1,730/oz, better than the US$1,971/oz preliminary figure

• Record Q2 gold production of 125.2koz, with sales of 110.7koz at a realised price of US$4,556/oz

• Operating cash flow of $249.4m for the quarter, with a $876.3m cash balance plus about $247m of unsold bullion at period end

• On track for FY guidance of 430-490koz at AISC under US$1,900/oz, with year-to-date output of 232,905oz at AISC of US$1,823/oz

• M5 underground drilling hits included 29m at 16.4g/t and 27m at 6.7g/t, with Toega underground results due later in Q3

• Société de Participation Minière du Burkina Faso talks continue over its acquisition of a 25% stake in the Kiaka Project

Company page: West African Resources (WAF)

Vault Minerals delivers in-line June quarter, guides FY27 above 355koz

[9:03 am] Vault Minerals' June quarter gold output matched its preliminary report, with FY27 guidance set and a merger with Genesis Minerals announced.

• Q4 gold production of 89,338oz, in line with the pre-reported figure, with sales of 87.9koz vs 90.3koz preliminary

• AISC of A$2,968/oz, better than the A$3,134/oz preliminary figure, at an achieved gold price of A$6,311/oz

• FY27 guidance of 355-375koz at AISC of $3,150-3,350/oz, rising to 380-400koz in FY28 and back to 355-375koz in FY29

• KoTH Stage 2 plant upgrade ahead of schedule for September 2026 commissioning, lifting throughput about 50% and supporting a 34% uplift in Leonora output

• Free cash flow of $219m for the quarter, closing FY26 with cash and bullion of $842m after returning $74.3m to shareholders and settling remaining hedges for $31.2m

• Merger with Genesis Minerals announced to create a new gold major from complementary assets with potential operation

Company page: Vault Minerals (VAU)

Adore Beauty CFO resigns as interim replacement steps in

[9:02 am] Adore Beauty's chief financial officer Marcus Crowe has resigned for personal reasons, with an interim successor appointed immediately.

• CFO and joint company secretary Marcus Crowe has resigned for personal reasons, staying on for a transition period to support the handover

• Kylie Archer appointed interim CFO on a contract basis, effective immediately, bringing listed-company CFO and ASX reporting experience

• Permanent CFO search underway, with the recruitment process now commenced

Company page: Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

Chip rout deepens as China competition and AI debt fears drive Nasdaq toward correction

[8:53 am] A worsening semiconductor selloff pushed the Nasdaq 100 to the brink of a correction as investors questioned the payoff from Big Tech's AI spending.

• MSCI World Semiconductor index down 16% this month, its worst run since 2022, though still up about 28% for the year

• Nasdaq 100 down about 9.5% from its 2 June record, just shy of correction territory, while the Philadelphia SOX has lost 25% since its 22 June high, into bear-market range

• South Korea's Kospi sank 11%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each down more than 14%, while US names Intel, AMD, Sandisk, Western Digital and Seagate fell more than 5%

• China competition in focus after a state-backed firm reportedly began mass producing immersion DUV lithography tools and CXMT completed its memory-chip IPO, pressuring ASML down 3.4%

• Circular AI-deal fears rising, with Nvidia's $750bn in infrastructure deals stoking debt concerns and the cost of protecting its debt against default surging a record on Monday

• Meta, Amazon and Microsoft report this week, with capex plans set to determine direction after Alphabet's first-ever negative free cash flow last week

Trump says new tariffs achieve the same result as those struck down by the court

[8:52 am] Trump said his latest tariffs replicate the regime the Supreme Court ruled illegal, remarks now being used against him in a fresh lawsuit.

• Trump said new tariffs are "doing the same thing" as the duties the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year, via a Fox News interview

• Comments now cited in a federal lawsuit by the Liberty Justice Center, which argues the new tariffs preserve the same regime the courts have rejected

• Friday's duties of 10%-12.5% on goods from 80-plus countries were brought under Section 301, on grounds those partners failed to curb forced labour

• Timing coincided with the lapse of the near-global 10% tariff at its 150-day limit, which the administration says was to avoid complexity, not to serve as a replacement

• Trump signalled he would rather exit USMCA than renegotiate, having declined to renew the Canada-Mexico deal this month

• Dismissed concerns tariffs could hurt the economy, claiming they have "made this country a fortune"

Source: CNBC

Coca-Cola beats and lifts FY26 guidance as volumes grow 5%

[8:51 am] Coca-Cola topped Q2 estimates on revenue, earnings and margins and raised its full-year outlook. The stock rallied 5.0% overnight to all-time highs, now up 31.6% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 7% to $13.4bn vs $13.16bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to $0.97 vs $0.93 ests (4% beat)

• Comparable operating margin of 35.6% vs 35% ests, up 90bp

• FY26 comparable EPS growth guidance raised to 9%-10%, with organic revenue growth of about 5% and free cash flow of about $12.4bn

Visa beats on revenue and earnings as payments volume grows 10%

[8:50 am] Visa's fiscal third quarter topped estimates, driven by double-digit growth in payments and cross-border volumes. Shares closed 1.1% higher, up 4.0% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 14% to $11.6bn vs $11.39bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to $3.32 vs $3.23 ests (3% beat)

• Payments volume up 10% and cross-border volume up 13%

• Data processing revenue up 17% to $6.0bn, with service revenue up 14% to $4.9bn and international transaction revenue up 6% to $3.9bn

PayPal beats and lifts FY26 profit guidance on Venmo and Braintree momentum

[8:48 am] PayPal topped revenue and earnings estimates and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to slightly positive growth.

• Revenue up 5% to $8.68bn vs $8.47bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS down 1% to $1.38 vs $1.28 ests (8% beat)

• Total payment volume up 10% to $486.4bn vs $468.5bn ests (4% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to ~$5.38 vs $5.31 ests, shifting from a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth

• Free cash flow up 157% to $1.8bn, with non-GAAP operating income down 8% to $1.5bn and margin down 248bp to 17.4%

• $1.5bn of buybacks in the quarter (33m shares), taking trailing 12-month buybacks to $6.0bn (111m shares)

Apple briefly tops $5 trillion as low-capex bet wins investors

[8:43 am] Apple touched a $5 trillion market cap for the first time, a day after overtaking Nvidia as the world's most valuable company.

• Apple briefly hit $5 trillion on Tuesday, reaching a high of $342.89 before closing at $340.08, just under the threshold

• Shares up 25% this year, outpacing mega-cap peers, versus Nvidia's 6% gain despite Nvidia hitting $5 trillion first in October

• Low capex the key driver, with Apple leaning on Google cloud and AI while hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions into AI build-outs and turn cash flow negative

• Rally holding despite device price hikes from the global memory shortage, with new leasing program Upgrade letting US customers rent iPhones

• Thursday's earnings call is Tim Cook's last as CEO, with John Ternus taking over on 1 September

JPMorgan turns tactically bullish as in-house buy signal flashes

[8:40 am] JPMorgan's market intelligence team says its tactical positioning monitor is pointing to material upside for the S&P 500.

• Tactical positioning monitor "now flashing a buy-signal", historically a marker the S&P 500 is set to gain, per Andrew Tyler's team

• Key tailwinds cited as lower bond yields, a weaker US dollar and strong corporate earnings, aided by easing US-Iran tensions and an expected Fed hold this week

• Semiconductor crowding flagged as a risk, with AI spending "no longer an automatic win" for chipmakers and infrastructure providers

• US-Iran war outlook named as the other main risk to the bullish call

• Consumer backdrop still firm, supported by rising household net worth, higher checking balances, strong retail sales and little credit stress

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 74 pts (+0.83%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with a clear rotation into defensive and value-oriented pockets of the market

• Healthcare (+2.3%), Staples (+1.96%), Materials (+1.66%) and Communications (+1.64%) sectors rallied on Wall Street, as lower oil and yields broaden market gains 

• The AI trade cracked in Asia. Korea's KOSPI triggered its eighth circuit breaker of the year and Samsung posted its worst day in almost two decades, as circular-financing worries collided with fresh evidence of Chinese progress in chipmaking equipment

• Brent capped its worst three-day run since 2020 as Iran opened Strait of Hormuz talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman