ASX 200 Live Today: Markets slip, Tech Index closes are record levels, All eyes on Fed

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, June 18. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 slips, eyes on Fed

[4:20 pm] Signing off – another session marked by slight weakness, with the S&P/ASX 200 down 0.12%. The market is now down four of the last five session, but still within 1% of all-time highs. Breadth was relatively positive, all things considered, with 96 S&P/ASX 200 constituents closing breakeven or higher (48%).

The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, at 4.25-4.5%. There's been a lot of debate about the next Fed Chair, but its also worth noting that the last three Fed Chairs (Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen) all ended their terms on a hawkish note, and Powell is likely to continue this trend.

The key document to watch will be the Summary of Economic Projects, which will contain the Fed's first estimates for GDP growth, inflation and rates since March.

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Silver stocks catch a bid

[3:10 pm] Silver stocks opened higher but retreated in early trading before rallying back to session highs. The moves come as silver prices ticked up 0.38% to US$37.26 an ounce on Wednesday.

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ASX 200 Tech Index eyes record close

[3:10 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is currently up 1.29% and on track to close at record levels — a notable outperformance considering the Nasdaq fell 0.9% overnight and cautious sentiment amid escalating Middle East tensions. Leading the sector's advance are names like Technology One (+2.3%), Wisetech (+1.7%), and Xero (+1.2%).

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Another narrow day

[1:55 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 continues to trade in a narrow range, sitting flat at 8,541. Despite volatile headlines spanning Israel-Iran tensions, US trade negotiations, central bank decisions, and rising oil prices, the index has slipped just 0.59% from its record close on June 11.

The price action has been relatively constructive given the backdrop, with the S&P/ASX 200 remaining broadly flat across the last three sessions. Market breadth reflects this stability, showing an even split between S&P/ASX 200 constituents trading higher and lower, while the VanEck Australian Equal Weight ETF (ASX: MVW) is up 0.15%.

Overall, nothing much to see here.

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Westpac says all eyes on US Fed's rates decision

[1:05 pm] Westpac's economics team is telling investors to watch for any changes to the US Fed's dot plot chart of likely interest rate decision when it hands down its decision at 4:00 am AEST on Thursday.

"It is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. The updated forecasts will provide fresh insights into how the central bank sees the economy is responding to higher import tariffs," the bank's economics team told investors.

By Tom Richardson

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Vanguard's ASX ETF tops $20 billion in value

[12:54 pm] Exchange traded fund giant Vanguard says its Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) is the first in Australia to top $20 billion in funds under management.

“The growth of VAS reflects the increasing confidence Australian investors have in index investing and the Vanguard approach,” said Daniel Shrimski, Managing Director, Vanguard Australia.

In total Vanguard has $16.3 trillion in assets under management globally as a lead beneficiary of the shift to index tracking investing.

By Tom Richardson

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RBC neutral on Nuix

[12:44 pm] Broker RBC Capital has initiated research on data intelligence provider Nuix, with a $2.60 share price target and neutral rating.

"NXL's software platform assists enterprise and governments analyse their growing pools of unstructured data. Structural tailwinds include rising data volumes, increased regulatory compliance and cybersecurity needs," the broker said. "However, NXL's revenue visibility is limited with long sales cycles and uncertain deal closure timing seeing FY25 guidance withdrawn in May."

Shares fetched $2.23 on Wednesday lunchtime.

By Tom Richardson

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Broker says get back on AI trade with these three ASX stocks

[12:30 pm] Paul Mason a tech analysts at broker Evans & Partners has told investors to get back on the artificial intelligence trade today. In particular Evans says data centre plays are an opportunity after treading water on worries around China's Deepseek and the capex budgets of mega-cap hyperscalers being scaled back.

Evans says this means there's value in NextDC (ASX: NXT), which he rates as positive with a $28.36 valuation per share.

He also names Macquarie Technology Group (ASX: MAQ) as a stock he likes with a $110.18 valuation.

Finally, new listing DigiCo Infrastructure REIT is also rated positively with a $4.56 per share rating.

By Tom Richardson

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Iron ore stocks slump

[11:25 am] Iron ore stock are broadly lower after prices for the steelmaking ingredient hit a six-week low on Tuesday.

Singapore iron ore futures slipped 0.6% yesterday to US$94.4 a tonne, the lowest level since 2-May.

According to ANZ Research, the weakness is likely weighed by data that showed China's steel production fell 6.9% in May, the first contraction since Beijing vowed to address the weakness in March.

Notable decliners today include Fortescue (-3.8%), BHP (-1.1%) and Champion Iron (-1.1%).

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Small caps making moves

[11:00 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.

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Silver stocks broadly higher

[10:40 am] Silver stocks opened broadly higher after prices for the commodity rallied 2.2% overnight to US$37.1/lb, a level not seen since September 2011.

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Top gainers and losers at the open

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Karoon Energy lifts capex guidance

[10:15 am] Karoon Energy was successful in its bid for six blocks in the Santos basin, Brazil. Here are the key takeaways from the announcement:

• Block Acquisitions: Blocks S-M-974 and S-M-1038 (~17 km from the Neon field, containing the Piracucá discovery) and four deepwater blocks (S-M-1484, S-M-1605, S-M-1358, S-M-1603) adjacent to its existing deepwater exploration acreage.

• Piracucá Potential: Initial studies indicate the Piracucá discovery could be a tie-back candidate for a potential Neon Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit.

• Formal Award Timeline: The blocks are expected to be formally granted in Q4 2025.

• Bid Terms: The bid includes a total bonus payment of ~$14.8 million and a minimum work program of $20.2 million, to be completed within seven years of the formal block award.

As a result of the new blocks, Karoon raised its FY25 capex guidance to $120-140 million vs. prior guidance of $105-125 million.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Karoon Energy (KAR)

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Silver prices hit 14 year high

[9:55 am] Silver prices broke through the US$37/oz level for the first time since September 2011, rallying 2.2% overnight and now up 12.5% month-to-date.

Despite this strong performance, silver stocks lagged, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) up just 0.68%. Rising Middle East tensions likely weighed on risk appetite, dampening investor enthusiasm for equities.

However, a sustained elevated silver price environment should eventually translate into upside for silver-related stocks. The breadth of silver stocks on the ASX remains limited, particularly following the pending acquisition of Adriatic Metals — the sector's largest name — by Dundee Metals. Other notable names include:

• Andean Silver (ASX: ASL)

• Argent Minerals (ASX: ARD)

• Boab Metals (ASX: BML)

• Investigator Resources (ASX: IVR)

• Manuka Resources (ASX: MKR)

• Maronan Metals (ASX: MMA)

• Polymetals Resources (ASX: POL)

• Silver Mines (ASX: SVL)

• Sun Silver (ASX: SS1)

• Unico Silver (ASX: USL)

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Motio upgrades FY25 guidance

[9:40 am] Motio, a $10 million market cap company specializing in content and communication solutions for healthcare and retail brands, has upgraded its FY25 guidance. The company noted that conditions "post the Federal Election have been significantly stronger than expected."

• Revenue upgraded from $8.5-9.5m to $9.0-9.5m (2.8% upgrade)

• Cash EBITDA target up from $1.35m to $1.9m (40.7% upgrade)

• Cash at bank of $2.75m (as at 18 June 2025)

Overall, a sizeable upgrade at the EBITDA level and some interesting numbers for just a $10 million market cap company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Motio (MXO)

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Platinum Asset Management update on L1 Capital merger

[9:30 am] : Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital have substantially completed due diligence for their proposed merger, first announced on May 1, 2025. Here are some of the key changes:

• Revised Terms: Post-due diligence, the indicative terms have been adjusted, with L1 Capital shareholders owning 74.0% and Platinum shareholders owning 26.0% (vs. prior 25%) of the combined entity upon merger completion.

• Performance Fees: The merged entity will receive performance fees on the first 3.0% of absolute returns (gross, net of management fees) from L1 Capital’s Long Short funds, with excess fees above 3.0% distributed to existing L1 Capital shareholders.

Both parties are finalising negotiations on the Merger Implementation Deed (MID) to outline the full terms of the merger. Platinum believes the merger will deliver value for its shareholders, pending final board approval and an assessment of shareholder interests.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

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Lynas adds Terbium to the mix

[9:25 am] Lynas confirmed its first production of Terbium Oxide (Tb) at its Malaysian operations. This follows last month's milestone, when it became the first producer of heavy rare earths outside China with the production of Dysprosium Oxide.

"Together with Dysprosium Oxide, which was first produced on our new Heavy Rare Earths production line in May, Lynas can now supply customers with the two Heavy Rare Earths required for rare earth permanent magnets used in electric motors," said CEO Amanda Lacaze.

Lynas shares are up 25% in the past month, trading at a 16-month high as Western nations struggle to shore up supplies of critical minerals.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

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Boss Energy meets FY25 uranium production guidance

[9:15 am] Boss Energy says its Honeymoon project has met first-year production guidance of 850,000 lbs of uranium drummed.

"The guidance, which related to FY25, was achieved on 17 June 2025. In the June quarter to-date, a total of 328,102lbs of U3O8 drummed have been produced, representing a 11% increase from the March quarter. Production will continue over the remainder of June but will be limited due to Boss’ decision to undertake a short planned maintenance program and prepare for the ongoing ramp-up in FY26," the company said in a statement.

To add some perspective, Morgan Stanley expected Boss to deliver 800,000 lbs of uranium in FY25. The analysts expect production at Honeymoon to rise 103% year-on-year in FY26, to 1.63 million lbs. Today's announcement likely provides greater confidence in meeting year-ahead expectations.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Horizon Minerals provides gold mining and processing update

[9:10 am] Horizon Minerals provided an update on the development of its two key projects:

Phillips Find:

• Completed second stockpile processing generating $5.8m revenue and $1.5m cashflow to Horizon

• 87,000t additional ore scheduled for August 2025 processing at Greenfields Mill

• Final 70,000t to be processed September/October 2025 at Three Mile Hill plant

Boorara:

• Large stockpiles totaling 316,000t (190,000t high-grade + 126,000t low-grade)

• 1.24Mt total ore under processing agreement with Norton Gold Fields at Paddington Mill

• March quarter generated $6.3m revenue from Paddington payments

June Quarter Performance:

• $12.8m received from Paddington operations and $7.5m received from FRM processing operations

• 1,439oz sold at A$5,195/oz average price with 94.71% recovery rate

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Horizon Minerals (HRZ)

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Morgan Stanley's take on oil

[9:00 am] Morgan Stanley analysts provide three 'anchor' scenarios for how oil prices may play out.

Scenario #1: Military conflicts to not necessarily disrupt the flow of oil. If exports from the region remain unaffected, Brent prices can decline back to US$60 a barrel.

Scenario #2: A sharp reduction in Iran's exports is a possibility, which could remove next year's global surplus. In a balanced market, oil prices trade around US$75-80 a barrel.

Scenario #3: Eventually, this conflict could put oil export from the wider Gulf region at risk. In that case, 2022-style prices could not be out of the question. (This was when Russia invaded Ukraine and sent prices spiked as high as US$120).

"The majority of probability is concentrated in scenario #1, which is our base case. With a lack of true historical precedent, scenario #3 remains an outlier," the report said.

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BofA Survey: Bullishness returns,

[8:55 am] Here are some of the key highlights from Bank of America's monthly fund manager survey, conducted between 6-12 June.

• Latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey highlighted sentiment rebounded back to pre-Liberation Day levels

• Cash levels down 0.5 percentage points to 4.2%, the largest two-month decline since December 2023

• Fund manager sentiment up 0.8 pp to 3.3, the largest year-to-date gain

• Soft landing seen as the most likely outcome for the global economy, back to the highest level since October 2024

• Trade war triggering global recession remains the biggest tail risk, but down to net 47% from 80% in April

• Long gold remains the most crowded trade

• 54% of fund managers see international stocks to be the top asset class, while 23% picked US stocks

• A net 21% see high bond yields for the next 12 months, the highest since August 2022

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What's driving stocks?

[8:35 am] Major US benchmarks finished broadly lower and near worst levels.

• Trump is calling for the "unconditional surrender" of Iran, says they know where Iran's supreme leader is hiding but won't take him out for now

• Trump meeting with national security team on Thursday to decide on a path forward, including potentially launching strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities

• Polymarket currently sees a 73% chance of US military action against Iran before month-end, up from ~4% just two weeks ago

• Israel says will continue military operations against Iran's missile and nuclear threats, regardless of US negotiation

• US May retail sales printed a steeper-than-expected fall of 0.9% month-on-month, largely driven by a pullback in auto and building material sales

• Tariff and trade talks remain relatively stuck. US deals with Japan and EU still struggling to find middle ground

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures down 17pts (-0.19%) after a relatively a relatively weak lead from Wall Street. Middle East tensions have swung back into the spotlight, with Trump warning everyone to immediately evacuate Tehran and no interest from Israel to de-escalate the situation.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.