ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 25th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 25. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

SiteMinder nearly doubles adjusted EBITDA but revenue lands short

[9:03 am] The hotel commerce platform delivered a sharp step-up in profitability in FY26, though a stronger Australian dollar and softer travel conditions saw revenue and earnings fall shy of ests.

Note: comparisons are to Morgan Stanley's 22-Jul note titled "Key picks into reporting season #2: SDR"

• Revenue up 18.6% reported to $266.1m vs $270.2m Morgan Stanley ests (2% miss)

  • Subscription revenue up 11.6% to $155.2m vs $155.5m ests (in line)

  • Transaction revenue up 30.0% to $110.9m vs $114.7m ests (3% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 96.5% to $28.1m vs $29.9m ests (6% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA margin up 419 bps to 10.6% vs. 11.0% ests (40 bp miss)

• Adjusted gross margin up 84 bps to 67.2% vs 66.8% ests (in line)

• Adjusted net loss of $7.6m vs a $4.9m loss in ests, though narrowed from $17.2m in FY25

• Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5m, with available funds of $61.6m

• FY27 guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin to expand meaningfully and ARR growth in the 20s on a constant currency and organic basis

Company page: SiteMinder (SDR)

GenusPlus posts record FY26 and guides to a doubling of EBITDA

[9:02 am] The power infrastructure contractor delivered sharp growth off acquisitions and east coast expansion, with FY27 guidance implying EBITDA roughly doubles again.

Note: no ests were available for this result, so comparisons are to the prior period only

• Revenue up 70.5% to a record $1.281bn

• Normalised EBITDA up 49.6% to a record $100.8m

• Underlying NPAT up 44.0% to $54.7m

• Basic EPS up 35.5% to 26.75c, diluted by the May equity raise

• Net cash of $399.3m, up from $113.5m at June 2025, helped by $195.6m of net equity raise proceeds

• Final dividend of 3.6 cps fully franked, taking total FY26 dividends up 55.6% to 5.6 cps

• Orderbook of $2.2bn excluding recurring revenue, with a tendered pipeline of $3.6bn

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $200m to $205m implies growth of around 100% on FY26

• Recurring revenue forecast to rise 71% to about $764m in FY27 including MPK, from $446m in FY26

• FY27 capex guided to $65m to $70m including MPK and Railtrain, with east coast exposure set to exceed 50% of the group

Company page: GenusPlus Group (GNP)

Cedar Woods posts record FY26 profit and targets further growth in FY27

[9:00 am] The residential developer beat the top end of its guidance, with margin expansion doing the heavy lifting and a record presales book underpinning the year ahead.

No ests available, so comparisons are to the prior period only.

• Revenue up 8% to a record $502.4m on higher average lot prices

• NPAT up 36% to a record $65.6m, ahead of the top end of guidance

• Gross margin up roughly two percentage points to about 30%, expected to hold broadly flat in FY27

• EPS up 33% to a record 77.9 cents

• Total FY26 dividends up 34% to a record 39.0 cps, with the DRP and Bonus Share Plan still suspended

• Presales up 26% to a record $830m, covering more than 90% of forecast FY27 revenue

• Enquiries up 25% to a record 30,137, though these softened markedly in Q4 on rate rises, tax changes and weaker sentiment

• Gross sales up 5% to 1,521 lots, homes and offices, with net sales up 5% to 1,326

• Gearing modest at 18% net bank debt to tangible assets, with more than $120m of available liquidity

• Targeting 15% NPAT growth in FY27, with residential conditions expected to stay soft for much of the year before improving

Company page: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

Dalrymple Bay delivers a low-surprise half with distribution growth intact

[8:55 am] The coal terminal operator posted modest earnings growth broadly in line with ests, with the near-term story still centred on the capital works program lifting revenue from FY28.

• TIC revenue up 3.6% to $156.5m

• EBITDA up 4.7% to $150.5m vs $151.4m ests (1% miss)

• Statutory NPAT up 14.2% to $49.2m

• FFO up 10.2% to $92.7m

• Q2-26 distribution of 6.75 cps, taking the half to 13.50 cps, in line with ests

• Net debt up 1.9% to $2,012.3m since 31 December, with investment grade rating reaffirmed

• Issued a $350m five-year fixed bond in the AMTN market under the new programme

• TY-26/27 distribution guidance of 28.62 cps reflects 8.5% growth, with a 3% to 7% p.a. DPS growth target maintained

• Committed NECAP projects of $370.6m still to be added to the asset base, with Shiploader 1A and Reclaimer 4 on schedule for commissioning by end-2026

• Most of that spend should hit the NECAP asset base by 1 July 2027, driving a material uplift in TIC revenue from that point

Company page: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

AUB Group meets on earnings, beats on dividend, but FY27 guidance lands short

[8:54 am] The insurance broker delivered record underlying earnings in line with ests and a stronger than expected payout, though its first take on FY27 sits below where the market was pitched.

• Underlying NPAT up 12.2% to $224.6m vs $224m ests (in line)

• Underlying EPS up 7.0% to 183.69c vs 182.3c ests (1% beat)

• Reported NPAT down 46.7% to $96.0m

• Australian Broking underlying NPBT up 10.0% to $149.1m, with average commission and fee income per client up 6.5%

• International underlying NPBT up 19.6% to $124.5m on marine and aviation strength at Tysers

• Final dividend up 7.6% to 71.0 cps fully franked

• Total FY26 dividend up 7.7% to 98.0 cps vs 92.8 cps ests (6% beat)

• Leverage ratio of 2.30x, with $330.5m of accessible cash and undrawn facilities

• FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of $245-265.0 implies growth of 9.1-18.0%, with the $255m midpoint sitting 2% below the $261m ests

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

Monadelphous posts record FY26 revenue with a dividend beat

[8:49 am] The engineering and maintenance contractor delivered a record result on the back of strong iron ore and energy activity, with earnings in line and the payout ahead of ests.

• Revenue up 31.5% to $2.98bn vs $2.98bn ests (in line)

• EBITDA up 42.9% to $226.0m vs $225m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 52.1% to $127.3m vs $125m ests (2% beat)

• Full year dividend up 50% to 108 cps vs 102 cps ests (6% beat)

• Engineering Construction revenue up 48.5% to $1.37bn on iron ore project work, Maintenance and Industrial Services up 20% to a record $1.61bn

• More than $2.7bn in new work secured since 1 July 2025 and over $680m already in FY27, though FY27 is flagged as a consolidation year after roughly 50% revenue growth across two years

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

SkyCity rejects two takeover approaches at up to NZ$0.75 a share

[8:49 am] SkyCity has confirmed media speculation about takeover interest, disclosing that its board unanimously knocked back two indicative proposals received in May 2026.

• A special situations fund managed by Oaktree Capital proposed NZ$0.70 cash per share, with a second unnamed party at an implied NZ$0.75, valuing equity at roughly NZ$772m and NZ$827m respectively

• The board determined neither proposal adequately reflected underlying value and that the attached conditions were problematic

• Both were non-binding and conditional on at least eight weeks of due diligence, arranging debt financing, exclusivity, unanimous board support, plus shareholder and regulatory approvals

• One or both parties asked SkyCity to stop buying or selling assets, which would have frozen the asset monetisation programme, and to retain its existing debt facilities

• SkyCity offered due diligence access if a revised proposal addressed those issues, but neither party came back with an improved bid

Company page: SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC)

Vulcan Steel lifts earnings as rollforming acquisition beats expectations

[8:46 am] The Australasian steel distributor delivered underlying earnings growth in FY26, helped by the acquired rollforming business and the first year-on-year volume growth since FY22.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 16% to NZ$130.3m

• Adjusted EPS up 10.8% to NZ 15.1 cents

• Operating cashflow down 30% to NZ$73.0m

• Final dividend of NZ 4.5 cps fully franked and fully imputed, taking the FY26 total to NZ 7.0 cps

• Net bank debt down NZ$5.1m to NZ$227.3m, with covenants improving over the year

• Outlook stays mixed, with New Zealand showing early signs of recovery ahead of the November election and Australian rates still restrictive, though the Brisbane 2032 build is flagged as a medium-term volume support

NZX-listed Vulcan shares are currently down 2.3% to NZ$6.25.

Company page: Vulcan Steel (VSL)

Trump doubles Canadian auto tariffs to 50% as talks collapse

[8:44 am] The US-Canada trade war has escalated sharply after negotiations broke down on Friday night, with Trump flagging a doubling of auto tariffs and Ottawa promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

• Tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel from Canada rise to 50% on 1 January 2027, doubling the current 25% auto rate, with steel already at 50%

• Follows Saturday's imposition of 50% tariffs on around $20bn of Canadian goods including wine, cement and hockey sticks, in retaliation for alleged discrimination against US cars, alcohol and dairy

• Canada retaliates from 8 September, targeting US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, with Mark Carney saying his country is effectively at war

• Direct US volume exposure is modest, with Canadian-built vehicles accounting for just 5.4%, or 861,000, of US sales last year, though Toyota and Honda represented 76.5% of Canadian production in 2025

• Escalation risk is broadening, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatening to cut US access to electricity and critical minerals, and both sides blaming the other for last-minute changes

Treasury eyes $1trn cash pile to fund bond buybacks

[8:42 am] The US Treasury could tap its General Account to fund expanded purchases of government bonds, giving Scott Bessent meaningful firepower to influence long-end yields.

• Two senior Treasury officials say the near $1trn Treasury General Account is available to help fund buybacks, though they would not specify how much or when an announcement might come

• Bessent has built the TGA to around $950bn, well above the roughly $550bn to $600bn target under the Biden administration

• Follows last week's surprise doubling of long-end off-the-run buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn, with Bessent flagging operations could run larger still

• Bonds have since retreated from an initial rally on scepticism over the Treasury's firepower, and using the TGA could shift that perception even at modest scale

• Officials pushed back on claims the Treasury abandoned its regular and predictable approach, noting auction schedules are unchanged and the first operation is not until 9 September

• Drawing down the TGA carries limited near-term risk, with a new debt ceiling not expected to bind until winter 2027 at the earliest, leaving time to rebuild the balance

Source: CNBC

Memory names lead a broad semiconductor selloff

[8:41 am] A run of policy, pricing and capital returns headlines has hit the memory complex hard, with the pain spreading across the wider semiconductor space just days out from Nvidia's result.

• Reports that Washington may allow Apple to source DRAM from CXMT and NAND from YMTC, potentially as a gesture ahead of Xi Jinping's expected 24 September US visit, drove SanDisk down 9%, Micron down 7%, Western Digital down 7% and the Roundhill Memory ETF down 7%

• Samsung fell more than 8% after its record 90trn to 110trn won ($65bn to $80bn) shareholder return plan landed short of expectations, with investors wanting more buybacks rather than dividends and no lift to the existing policy

• Buybacks are complicated by Samsung's ownership structure, with brokers expecting only 10trn to 20trn won directed to repurchases and cancellations, versus SK Hynix's 40trn won treasury share buyback and cancellation

• Nvidia has told customers server prices will rise more than 15% in many cases from early next year on surging memory costs, underlining the pricing power now sitting with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron

Chip selloff drags Wall Street lower ahead of Nvidia

[8:36 am] US equities started the week on the back foot as a semiconductor rout outweighed a drop in oil, with traders also weighing fresh US pressure on Iran.

• Nasdaq 100 down 1% as chipmakers sank, with Nvidia falling for a seventh straight session, its longest losing run since 2022

• Sector rattled by a report that some of Nvidia's biggest customers have been told of AI-related price hikes above 15%, while a memory chip ETF fell 5.9%

• Bessent threatened economic punishment for any country doing business with Iran, with softer energy costs helping lift Treasuries

• Bessent gave no further signals on revamping US debt management, following a report his department could draw on its cash pile to fund buybacks of higher-yielding older securities

• Focus shifts to Wednesday's PCE print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, with investors seeking clarity on the Fed's reaction function to sticky inflation

Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are up 13 pts (+0.14%). Here's what happened overnight:

• A fairly quiet and narrow session on Wall Street, major benchmarks finished mixed as semis sold off and energy stocks pulled back but broader gains buoyed the Dow and Equal-weight S&P 500

  • S&P 500 (-0.28%), Nasdaq (-0.76%), Dow (+0.26%), Russell 2000 (-0.76%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.12%)

• Nvidia's decision to raise AI server prices by more than 15% detonated the memory complex, with names like Micron, SanDisk and Seagate trading broadly lower

• Bessent launched "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran, while Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian cars and steel from January 2027

• Gold added another ~1% to US$4,602/oz, now up ~17% since 16-Jun and trading at the highest since 14-May