ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 20th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, October 20. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Nasdaq rebounds 1.1% as chip stocks snap losing streak

[8:48 am] Chipmakers led a rebound on Wall Street after the Nasdaq’s worst week since April 2025, though most S&P 500 stocks still finished lower.

• The Nasdaq rose 1.1% to 26,430.89, the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow slipped 0.1%

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.6%, ending an eight-session losing streak, its longest in 18 years, while Intel gained 2.4% on a JPMorgan upgrade to neutral

• Roughly 70% of S&P 500 stocks fell and the equal-weight index finished lower, per Yahoo Finance

• Amazon jumped 5% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick, helping consumer discretionary lead sectors with a near 3% gain

• CoreWeave fell 0.4% despite a Goldman Sachs upgrade to buy, with the target cut to US$106 from US$139, after a 25% slump last week on debt concerns

• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson told clients: “We advise investors to be ready for either a very rapid reconciliation or a slower bleed into November because in our view, that will be the time to add risk rather than shun it”

Brent holds near US$110 as Iran’s oil exports dry up

[8:45 am] Iran’s crude exports have fallen to zero under the renewed US naval blockade, keeping Brent near five-month highs even as Hormuz traffic recovers.

• Brent fell 0.4% to US$109.26 a barrel but swung between session highs of US$110 and lows of US$106.8

• No tankers have docked at Kharg Island since late August, with Iran’s crude exports down from almost 1m barrels a day in July to nothing

• 25 ships were targeted in and around Hormuz in the first two weeks of October, vs 18 in all of September

• Crude flows through Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, topping 100m barrels last week

• Eurasia Group lifted its odds of the conflict intensifying to 65% from 35%

• Ukraine struck an oil terminal in St Petersburg on Sunday, while US lawmakers introduced a bill to block Trump’s Russian diesel deal

• The US offered up to 17m barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Friday

Copper bulls grow wary as tariff trade unwinds

[8:42 am] Traders are increasingly betting Trump won’t follow through on copper tariffs, collapsing the Comex premium that drove prices to record highs.

• LME three-month copper was little changed at US$14,389 a tonne, after hitting a record near US$15,000 last month

• The Comex premium over the LME has collapsed in recent weeks, accelerating after a Reuters report that tariff plans had stalled over inflation concerns

• Macquarie says prices could crash toward US$10,000 a tonne if tariffs are ruled out, or rally to US$18,000 if announced with a lag

• US-bound copper shipments from Africa are already dwindling as the spread narrows, according to Kpler

• The Commerce Department recommended phased levies of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, potentially starting as soon as 1 January

Source: Bloomberg

China’s Q3 growth beats as exports surge

[8:41 am] China’s economy picked up pace in the third quarter as strong foreign demand for tech goods offset a deepening property slump.

• GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year vs 4.4% ests, up from a three-year low of 4.3% in Q2

• The monthly trade surplus hit a record US$133.5bn

• A deepening property slump and sluggish consumer demand continue to weigh

Indonesian stocks plunge 5% on MSCI downgrade threat

[8:40 am] Indonesia’s benchmark hit a six-year low after MSCI proposed stripping the country of emerging market status.

• The Jakarta Composite fell more than 5% to its lowest level since October 2020

• MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia directly from emerging market to standalone status

• Goldman Sachs estimates full removal could trigger about US$5.6bn in passive outflows, equal to 18 days of average trading volume

• A final decision is due by June, hinging on improvements in market governance and transparency

Source: Yahoo Finance

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are down 77 pts (-0.87%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Chipmakers led a tech rebound that lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500, though most S&P 500 stocks fell and the Dow finished slightly lower

  • S&P 500 (+0.41%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.32%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.11%), Dow (-0.07%) and Russell 2000 (+0.25%)

  • US yields higher across the curve, with the 2-year up 6 bps to 4.77%, the 10-year up 6 bps to 5.14% and the 30-year up 5 bps to 5.47%

• Treasuries sold off as haven demand faded, with traders rebuilding bets on Fed hikes into next year ahead of next week's FOMC

• European stocks slid after violent French protests, while Brent held near US$110 as Houthi-Saudi hostilities kept Gulf supply fears elevated