ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 20th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 20. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Brambles grows earnings 4% but US repair issues drag and FY27 guidance lands soft

[9:21 am] The pallet pooler met its revised FY26 guidance, though a ~US$90m hit from US repair capacity constraints weighed and FY27 guidance implies growth below ests.

• Revenue up 2% to US$7.04bn vs US$7.04bn ests (in line), with price realisation and volume contributing equally and net new business growth of 3%

• Underlying profit up 4% to US$1.49bn, or ~11% growth excluding the ~US$90m adverse impact from US repair capacity constraints

• Operating profit after tax up 5% to US$948.5m vs US$943.1m NPAT ests (1% beat)

• Total FY26 dividends up 16% to 46.15 UScps vs 43.4 UScps Morgans ests (6% beat)

• Completed US$509m of buy-backs in FY26, with the current US$400m program on track to finish in FY27

• FY27 revenue guidance of 2-4% constant currency growth (mid 3%) sits below the 4.3% growth implied by $7,340m FY27 ests

• FY27 underlying profit guidance of 2-6% constant currency growth (mid 4%) sits just below the ~5% implied by $993m FY27 NPAT ests

• FY27 free cash flow guidance of US$800-950m (mid US$875m) implies a 17% decline on FY26

• Growth is weighted to the second half, with a mid-to-high single digit decline in 1H27 offset by low double-digit growth in 2H27

• CEO Graham Chipchase said order fulfilment has improved materially since mid-April, with US repair constraints on track to be resolved by the end of 1H27, though 3.4 million excess US pallets will not be fully utilised until the end of FY28

Company page: Brambles (BXB)

Pepper Money lifts profit 15% as servicing wins reshape the business

[9:17 am] The non-bank lender delivered record originations and AUM in 1H26, with two large portfolio servicing mandates set to nearly double assets under management.

• Total originations up 40% to $6.3bn, a record half, with mortgage originations up 63% to $4.5bn and asset finance up 2% to $1.7bn

• Total AUM up 20% to a record $24.0bn, with mortgage AUM up 32% to $12.5bn and asset finance AUM down 4% to $6.0bn after a $1.0bn whole loan sale

• Net interest income up 17% to $184.5m, with NIM up 12bps to 2.10%

• Statutory NPAT up 7% to $50.4m and pro-forma NPAT up 15% to $53.9m, including $3.5m of costs from the lapsed Challenger approach

• Loan loss expense up 19% to $48.7m on volume growth and heavier downside weightings, with provision coverage steady at 0.79%

• Fully franked interim dividend of 7.2cps, up 12% on the pcp, at the top of the 60% payout policy

• Appointed servicer of the $15.4bn Westpac RAMS portfolio, which completed 1 August, taking total AUM to just under $40bn, with the HSBC Australia portfolio mandate expected to complete in 1H27

• CEO Mario Rehayem flagged a reduction in new application activity following federal changes to CGT, negative gearing and SMSF residential lending

Company page: Pepper Money (PPM)

AFG lifts profit 39% as manufacturing loan book hits record

[9:16 am] Australian Finance Group, a mortgage aggregator and lender, delivered broad-based earnings growth in FY26 with recurring income now underpinning around 90% of earnings.

• NPAT up 39% to $49m

• Underlying NPATA up 33% to $54m

• Manufacturing loan book up 30% to a record $7.1bn, with NIM of 125bps and underlying segment ROE of 30%

• Broker Services income up 13% to $24m, and asset and commercial finance settlements up 19% to $4.3bn

• Underlying ROE lifted from 19% to 23%, with the cost-to-income ratio down to 55% and 94% cash conversion

• Full-year fully franked dividend of 9.5cps, including a final of 4.8cps

• FY27 sees roughly $13m of annualised EBITDA uplift carried over from FY26 investments, with only 10% of earnings directly exposed to short-term residential volume

• CEO David Bailey flagged residential lodgements have softened since June as borrowers respond to tax policy settings and rate expectations, though he said underlying housing demand remains intact

Company page: Australian Finance Group (AFG)

Northern Star delivers record FY26 profit as KCGM mill expansion ramps up

[9:14 am] Northern Star reported record earnings on a higher realised gold price, with underlying profit and the dividend both ahead of Macquarie ests, though gold sold slipped and FY27 output hinges on the KCGM commissioning.

• Revenue up 19% to $7.6bn

• Average realised gold price up 26% to $4,925/oz

• Gold sold down 6% to 1.54Moz

• Underlying NPAT up 26% to $1.8bn, with underlying EPS of $1.24 vs $1.14 Macquarie ests (9% beat)

• FY26 dividend of 55cps fully franked at the upper end of policy vs 53cps Macquarie ests (4% beat)

• $500m on-market buy-back with $129m completed to date

• FY27 group production guidance of 1,500-1,650koz

• FY27 AISC guidance of $3,050-3,450/oz (mid $3,250) vs $3,096 Macquarie ests (5% higher on cost, broadly in line)

• KCGM production guidance of 550-650koz reflecting early ramp-up, with output weighted to the second half

• MD Stuart Tonkin flagged an "important inflection point", with the mill expansion set to "structurally reset the cost base" as free cash generation lifts through the ramp-up

Company page: Northern Star Resources (NST)

Medibank lifts FY26 profit as health momentum builds and dividend rises

[9:11 am] Medibank grew operating profit and underlying earnings in FY26 broadly in line with Macquarie ests, with policyholder growth, strong Medibank Health momentum and a higher dividend, though net investment income fell.

• Group operating profit up 6.7% to $813.5m vs $823.4m Macquarie ests (1% miss), driven by resident Health Insurance, Medibank Health momentum and controlled corporate costs

• Net investment income down 13.9% to $178.9m, including a $28.9m reduction across the growth and defensive portfolios

• Underlying NPAT up 2.9% to $636.8m vs $638.2m Macquarie ests (in line)

• Underlying EPS up 2.9% to 23.1c vs 23.2c Macquarie ests (in line)

• Statutory NPAT attributable to shareholders up 27.5% to $638.7m vs $643.3m Macquarie ests (in line)

• Fully franked final ordinary dividend of 10.9cps

• Full-year dividend up 6.7% to 19.2cps vs 19.4cps Macquarie ests (in line), an 83.0% payout ratio within the 75%-85% target range

• Non-recurring cybercrime costs of $34.9m recognised, with FY27 costs expected below $20m as the IT security uplift is now largely embedded

• FY27 outlook: Resident PHI gross margin broadly consistent with FY26, solid non-resident gross profit growth, and Medibank Health segment profit growth of c.25% including a full-year Better Medical contribution

• CEO David Koczkar said people "continue to prioritise their health" despite household budget pressure, with one in four Australians delaying a GP visit due to cost

Company page: Medibank (MPL)

Super Retail beats on earnings despite profit decline as project investment weighs

[9:07 am] Super Retail Group's FY26 sales hit a record and normalised earnings landed well ahead of ests, even as deliberate project investment and higher financing costs pushed profit before tax lower.

• Group sales up 3.2% to $4.2bn vs $4.19bn ests (in line), with group like-for-like growth of 1.8%

• Segment EBITDA up 2.1% to $774m vs $741m ests (4% beat)

• Group gross margin up 10bps to 45.7%

• Normalised PBT down 7% to $306m, reflecting project investment and higher financing costs

• Normalised NPAT down 2.8% to $226m vs ~$202m ests (12% beat), aided by a lower effective tax rate

• Normalised EPS of 100cps vs 89.5cps ests (12% beat), statutory NPAT down 7.2% to $206m

• Fully franked final dividend of 33cps, taking full-year ordinary dividends to 65cps at the upper end of payout policy

• FY27 has started positively with total sales up 3.5% and like-for-like up 1.5% over the first seven weeks, though management flagged Middle East tensions, rising rates and inflation as consumer headwinds

  • Consensus SSS is for 1.6% in 1H27

• CEO Paul Bradshaw said the group delivered record sales "in the face of significant headwinds" including Middle East instability, unfavourable weather and interest rate pressure on households

Company page: Super Retail Group (SUL)

APA delivers record FY26 EBITDA above guidance midpoint, lifts growth pipeline to $3.5bn

[9:04 am] APA Group has posted a strong FY26 result with underlying EBITDA above the guidance midpoint, margin expansion and a 22nd consecutive year of distribution growth.

• Underlying EBITDA up 8.3% to $2,183m vs $2,177m ests (in line), exceeding the guidance midpoint

• Underlying EBITDA margin up 370bps to 77.9%, aided by $80m of cost-out initiatives that beat the $50m target, with a $100m annualised run-rate flagged for FY27

• Statutory NPAT up 81.4% to $234m, with total statutory revenue ex pass-through up 1.9% to $2,764m

• Free cash flow up 3.2% to $1,118m, underpinning distributions and growth funding

• FY26 distribution of 58.0cps, up 1.8%, in line with ests and guidance, marking the 22nd straight year of growth

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $2,260m to $2,340m implies 5.4% growth, with the $2,300m midpoint in line with ests, distributions guided to 59.0cps (+1.7%) also in line, and the organic growth pipeline lifted to ~$3.5bn from $3.0bn

Company page: APA Group (APA)

NRW delivers record FY26 earnings on strong momentum and Fredon acquisition

[9:02 am] NRW Holdings posted record revenue and earnings for FY26, beating consensus on the top line while lifting profitability across all segments and establishing EMIT as its fourth operating pillar via the Fredon deal.

• Revenue up 31.4% to $4.3bn vs $4.19bn ests (1% beat), reflecting strong activity across all sectors plus a nine-month Fredon contribution

• Underlying EBITA up 38.8% to $288.6m

• Underlying NPAT up 43.6% to $182.7m vs $176.1m consensus NPAT (4% beat, though consensus is on a reported basis)

• Underlying EBITA margin improved to 6.7% from 6.4% in FY25

• Fully franked final dividend up 53% to 14.5cps

• New EMIT segment contributed $684.3m revenue and $36.1m underlying EBITA, broadening exposure to health, defence, data centres and infrastructure

• FY27 revenue guidance of $4.6bn to $4.8bn (midpoint $4.7bn) vs $4.58bn ests (3% beat), with ~85% already secured

• FY27 guidance for underlying EBITA of $320m to $330m

Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)

US national debt tops $40 trillion for the first time

[8:56 am] The US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, having added its most recent trillion in just five months as deficits balloon and interest costs mount.

• Total public debt outstanding hit $40.05 trillion as of 18 August, up from $19.4 trillion a decade ago and having more than doubled across the Trump and Biden presidencies

• The pace is accelerating, with the last trillion added in about five months versus 192 years to reach the first, and July alone running roughly $14bn of new debt a day

• Treasury reported a $432.3bn deficit in July, the highest monthly total since March 2021, with the year-to-date shortfall nearing $1.8bn and the annual deficit projected to hit $2.1 trillion by 30 September

• Interest on the debt has reached nearly $1.2 trillion this year, now the largest budget line outside Social Security and Medicare

• The fiscal strain is feeding markets, with Treasury yields at pre-GFC highs prompting Treasury to lift buybacks at the long end of the curve to support bonds

Fed's July hold masked broad appetite for a rate hike, minutes show

[8:55 am] Minutes from the Fed's July meeting revealed several officials favoured a rate hike and many warned tightening would be needed if inflation did not decline, though softer data since has eased that pressure.

• FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, the fifth straight meeting on hold following three cuts in late 2025

• Dallas' Logan, Cleveland's Hammack and Minneapolis' Kashkari dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, while non-voters Schmid (Kansas City) and Musalem (St. Louis) have since signalled they would have backed a hike

• Most participants expected inflation to step down as tariff and energy effects wane, but many flagged it could prove more persistently elevated, with the outlook "highly uncertain" and clouded by the re-escalation of the Iran war

• Chair Warsh drew criticism for failing to articulate a rationale for the hold at his press conference, pushing long-dated bond yields to a near two-decade high on doubts over the Fed's 2% commitment

• Warsh floated cutting the number of annual policy meetings from eight to six, a significant operational shift, though no change will take effect this year

Source: Bloomberg

UAE cuts off all trade with Iran after alleged missile fire

[8:54 am] The UAE has imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran after accusing Tehran of firing two ballistic missiles at its waters, severing a lifeline that supplied roughly a third of Iranian imports.

• UAE halted all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions "until further notice" after two ballistic missiles reportedly landed in its territorial waters, both causing no damage or casualties

• Iran denies the attack, with Tehran calling the accusation "baseless" and suggesting a "false flag operation" amid its broader war with the US and Israel

• The UAE supplied more than 30% of Iran's imports worth some $21bn in 2024 and acts as a critical re-export hub, giving Iran discreet access to third-country goods and a route to move money around sanctions

• Escalation risk remains elevated, with US-Iran talks collapsed, the 60-day ceasefire window expired, and Strait of Hormuz traffic running below a tenth of pre-war levels

US and Canada near trade deal as Trump pauses 50% tariffs and eyes metals relief

[8:53 am] Washington delayed threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after both sides signalled a tentative deal, with metals and auto duties set to be cut.

• Trump paused planned 50% Section 338 tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days, less than two hours before they were due to take effect, citing a tentative deal still subject to finalisation

• The proposed deal would halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 25% and cut duties on the non-US content of Canadian autos to 15% from 25%, though rates may not apply across the board and derivative products could differ

• Canada is understood to have committed to removing barriers on US autos, dairy and alcohol, with US spirits exports to Canada down 70% since 2025 amid provincial retail boycotts

• Trump said the Keystone XL pipeline would be revived, having already permitted the Bridger Pipeline expansion to carry Canadian oil to Wyoming, with energy the largest US import from Canada at more than 4 million barrels a day

• Markets moved sharply on the metals news, with Algoma Steel up as much as 24% in Toronto while US producers Nucor fell 8.9% and Century Aluminium dropped 11% on the prospect of cheaper Canadian competition

Bond traders seek shelter in short-dated debt

[8:52 am] Global markets are wrestling with rising long-dated yields and heavy AI-related borrowing, pushing investors toward safety even as US equities hold near records.

• Short-dated bonds have become the consensus safe-haven trade, with an index of one to three-year maturities up 1% this year versus a 4% loss for bonds maturing in 10 years or more

• US 30-year yields hit their highest since 2007, prompting Treasury Secretary Bessent to deploy debt buybacks in a sign of concern over the selloff

• SK Hynix unveiled a $29bn buyback to ease worries about AI capex, sending its ADRs up 6.1% in premarket trade, though Asian chipmakers still fell with the Kospi sinking almost 6%

• Alphabet sold its first Australian dollar bonds, paying just under 7% for longer-dated funding, its highest-ever cost and a sign of how much the tech borrowing binge is testing debt markets

Source: Bloomberg

What Treasury's buyback move means for bond markets

[8:48 am] An explainer on why the Trump Administration is intervening in the bond market and what is really at stake for investors.

• What: Treasury is doubling the maximum size of its debt buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation, effectively becoming a larger buyer of older, longer-dated bonds to inject liquidity and pull yields lower at the long end of the curve. This operation runs Sept 9 through Nov 4, but Treasury has flagged it will provide "more information" on future buybacks on Nov 4, which commentary reads as a signal that further intervention is likely

• Why: This is being read as the second notable bond market intervention by the Administration, after Trump cited the bond market when announcing his April 2025 "90-day tariff pause" and, notably, the 10-year yield now sits above the peak seen back then

• Why it matters so much: The US government needs lower rates more than anyone, having spent $1.4trn on interest alone over the past 12 months, a figure projected to reach $1.7trn a year by November 2028 as borrowing costs have more than doubled since 2020

• The threshold to watch: For debt servicing costs to simply stop rising, the 5-year yield needs to fall to around 3.25%, a roughly 110bps drop just to hold interest costs at $1.4trn, which is why the bond market is increasingly viewed as the key long-term fundamental

Treasury doubles debt buybacks to steady bond market

[8:46 am] The US Treasury will more than double its debt buybacks to ease pressure on longer-dated yields, sending yields lower and equity futures higher.

• Buyback operation size to lift from a $2bn to "at least" $4bn maximum, targeting the 10-20yr and 20-30yr segment that has faced a buyers' strike since late June

• Change runs from Sept 9 through Nov 4, positioned as a liquidity support measure rather than a debt paydown

• 10-year note closed down 5.7bps to 4.647% and the 30-year bond fell 9bps to 5.196% on the announcement

• Evercore's Krishna Guha said the move could force near-term short-covering and deter investors from going max short, but changes nothing on fundamentals given heavy hyperscaler debt issuance and large deficits

• Critics flagged the move as de facto yield curve control that could complicate the Fed's inflation fight, with commentary framing Bessent's motives as politically driven ahead of the election

Source: CNBC

Good morning!

[8:12 am] ASX 200 futures are up 27 pts (+0.30%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, snapped a three-day losing streak, though closed off best levels

  • S&P 500 (+0.21%), Dow (+0.22%), Nasdaq (+0.16%) and Russell 2000 (+0.50%)

• Breadth was very strong, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.04%) surging on sizeable gains for sectors like Healthcare (+3.5%), Discretionary (+2.1%), Materials (+1.6%) and Staples (+0.8%)

• US Treasury blindsided bond markets with a surprise decision to at least double buybacks of long-dated debt, dragging 30-year yields off two-decade highs

• The relief landed on the same day total US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time, a milestone the street read as the reason Bessent felt compelled to act at all

• Moderna surged 176% on the first successful late-stage trial of an mRNA cancer vaccine, while Fed minutes showed several officials wanted a rate rise as far back as July

  • Yes, a US$25bn market cap company added about ~$45bn in market cap