ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 15th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 15. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Silver leads broad commodities sell-off

[9:15 am] Precious metals bore the brunt of a broad commodities retreat, with every contract on the board trading lower.

• Silver down 6% to US$55.61/oz, while gold fell 1.3% to US$4,105/oz

• Platinum down 3.7% to US$1,603/oz and palladium down 2.9% to US$1,092/oz

• Copper down 1.6% to US$6.67/lb, with aluminium off 1.5% to US$2,975/t

• Iron ore futures down 0.4% to US$90.35/t

• Brent down 0.3% to US$106.03/bbl

As a result, US-listed mining ETFs sold off across the board overnight, with silver and uranium miners hit hardest.

• Global X Silver Miners ETF down 5.5% to US$79.53

• Global X Uranium ETF down 4.9% to US$35.54

• VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) down 4.4% to US$83.40

• Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) down 4.2% to US$80.82

• VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF down 2.9% to US$55.78

• Sprott Nickel Miners ETF (NIKL) down 2.8% to US$12.18

Not a good lead for local miners.

By Kerry Sun

Chip stocks shed $1.6tn in six-day rout

[9:00 am] The semiconductor selloff deepened as higher rates, stretched valuations and the cost of AI infrastructure weighed on sentiment.

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 4.3%, extending its six-day fall to 12%, the longest losing streak since May 2025

• More than half the index is down at least 10% over the period, led by Arm (down 21%), Applied Materials (down 16%) and Intel (down 13%)

• Broadcom CEO Hock Tan likened some investors chasing the AI boom to gamblers and warned of potential funding constraints

• JPMorgan sees a less favourable backdrop than the late-July correction, citing a lack of retail dip-buying, a buyback flow cliff and elevated leveraged ETF assets

• UBS CIO views the selloff as a recalibration of expectations rather than a fundamental break in the AI investment story

Source: Bloomberg

CoreWeave slumps 15% as Gartner flags neocloud shakeout

[8:59 am] AI cloud providers came under fresh pressure after Gartner warned most independent neoclouds won’t survive the decade.

• CoreWeave down 15% to US$65.78, its biggest one-day fall since February, as its bonds slid to distressed levels

• CEO Mike Intrator told staff the market was acting “irrationally” and said its backlog more than covers its debt obligations

• Gartner forecasts more than 80% of neocloud providers will cease independent operations by 2030

• AI capex of nearly US$1tn in 2026 and a further US$6tn through 2030 compares with forecast AI revenue of US$3.6tn, well short of the US$8.5tn Gartner says is needed

• Firmus Grid pulled its IPO of up to US$5.5bn last week, while AirTrunk has delayed its Singapore REIT listing to next year

Oil climbs as Houthis hit Aramco headquarters

[8:55 am] Oil finished flattish as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Hormuz shipping threatened a recovery in Gulf supply.

• Brent slipped 0.2% to US$106.02 a barrel

• Houthis struck Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran administrative building, causing a limited fire, while Riyadh’s airport has been hit four times, with Saturday’s strike killing 13

• Container ship sank south of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine, with Iran saying it has deployed new tactics to target shipping

• Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, while Iranian exports fell to zero under a US blockade

• Trump said the US “may” act against Iran before the 3 November midterms, as Iran battles a surge in separatist attacks in its southeast

• Standard Chartered’s Emily Ashford said “recovering flows are not the same as secure flows”

IEA warns diesel shortages could run well into 2027

[8:51 am] The IEA flagged diesel markets will stay tight into next year as Middle East and Russian supply losses drain inventories.

• Diesel export losses from the Middle East and Russia totalled 1.3m bpd in September, about 4.5% of global diesel and gasoil demand

• Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost US$95/bbl in September

• Gasoil balance to stay tight through 1H27 before easing in 2H27

• Global oil supply forecast to fall 5.8m bpd in 2026 before rising 7.7m bpd in 2027, tipping the market back into surplus

• Emergency stock releases slowed to about 270,000 bpd in September from 2.2m bpd over March to June, with about 100m barrels of pledges still to come

• Trump temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian diesel after Moscow agreed to supply global markets, and has told EU countries to draw down inventories or face a potential US export ban

US core inflation tops forecasts as price pressures broaden

[8:49 am] September CPI showed price pressures spreading well beyond fuel, putting an October Fed hike back in play.

• Headline CPI up 0.6% month-on-month, in line with ests, with the annual rate accelerating to 3.7% from 3.4% vs 3.6% ests

• Core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month vs 0.2% ests, lifting the annual rate to 2.6% from 2.4% vs 2.5% ests

• Gasoline up 9.1% in the month, accounting for more than half the headline increase, and up 34% year-on-year

• Software prices up a record 28.4% year-on-year and computers a record 9.7%, while toys posted the biggest annual jump since 1988, reflecting AI demand and tariffs

• Real average hourly earnings fell 0.7%, the sixth straight month of contraction, ahead of November midterms

• Bloomberg Economics noted owners’ equivalent rent printed hot despite a cool housing market, flagging a potential aberration

Treasuries recover post-CPI losses as October hike odds swing

[8:49 am] Bond markets whipsawed on the inflation print, with traders briefly pricing better-than-even odds of an October hike before pulling back.

• October hike odds rose above 50% in the initial reaction before easing to about 40% in swaps by late session

• Two-year yield rose as much as 16bps and the five-year topped 5.15% for the first time since 2007, before Treasuries recovered most losses as stocks slid

• Tightening priced by end-January fell to about 40bps from a peak of more than 50bps

• Citigroup added a December hike to its forecast, while still expecting cuts in 2027

• New York Fed President John Williams sees no need for hikes beyond one more this year, with Jefferson and Bowman also urging more time

• Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks late Thursday New York time at the IMF annual meeting

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley beats as equity trading surges

[8:48 am] Morgan Stanley’s equities desk did the heavy lifting in the third quarter, offsetting softer fixed income trading. The stock still fell 2.7% to a fresh six-month low.

• Revenue up 12% to US$20.34bn vs US$19.95bn ests (2% beat)

• Equity trading revenue of US$5.80bn vs US$4.90bn ests (18% beat)

• Fixed income trading revenue of US$2.01bn vs US$2.16bn ests (7% miss)

• Wealth management revenue of a record US$9.07bn vs US$9.01bn ests (1% beat), with US$232bn in net new assets

• EPS up 8% to US$3.03 vs US$2.91 ests (4% beat)

• Return on equity of 17.8% vs 17% ests

Bank of America misses ests, takes $1.2bn regulatory hit

[8:47 am] Bank of America fell short of ests on an adjusted basis, with reported earnings further dented by a regulatory settlement. The stock finished off session lows, but still down 4.7%.

• Adjusted revenue of US$30.12bn vs US$30.69bn ests (2% miss)

• Net interest income of US$16.61bn vs US$16.55bn ests (in line)

• Sales and trading revenue down 5% to US$5.1bn

• Adjusted EPS of US$1.08 vs US$1.11 ests (3% miss)

• Reported EPS down 13% to US$0.91, including a US$1.2bn (US$0.17 per share) regulatory settlement charge

• Share buybacks of US$6bn in the quarter

BlackRock beats as net inflows top $205bn

[8:47 am] BlackRock’s third-quarter beat was driven by fees and flows, with performance fees well ahead of expectations. It was a rather whipsaw session for the share price, which finished up just 0.7% to US$1,073.79.

• Revenue up 19% to US$7.75bn vs US$7.52bn ests (3% beat)

• Performance fees of US$630m vs US$412m ests (53% beat)

• Net inflows of US$205.5bn vs US$171.9bn ests (20% beat), led by US$134.5bn into ETFs

• AUM up 15% to US$15.49tn vs US$15.67tn ests (1% miss)

• Adjusted operating margin up 320bps to 47.8%

• Adjusted EPS up 38% to US$15.93 vs US$14.12 ests (13% beat)

ASML lifts outlook as supply set to fall short of demand

[8:46 am] ASML delivered a sizeable earnings beat and guided above ests, with margins doing most of the work. NYSE-listed ASML shares briefly gained 0.9%, but finished the session 3.9% lower to US$1,650.

• Net sales of €11.66bn vs €11.56bn ests (1% beat)

• Gross margin of 57.5% vs 54.8% ests

• EPS of €12.95 vs €10.60 ests (22% beat)

• 4Q26 sales guidance of €14.2bn to €15.2bn, with the €14.7bn midpoint 7% above ests, and gross margin of about 57% vs 54.9% ests

• FY26 sales guidance of €44bn to €45bn, with the €44.5bn midpoint 2% above ests

• Planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, with ASML looking to lift 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase previously flagged

Good morning!

[8:36 am] ASX 200 futures are down 18 pts (-0.20%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Hot September CPI revived Fed hike bets, sparking a tech-led selloff while defensives held up

  • S&P 500 (-1.1%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.57%)

  • Nasdaq (-1.88%), Dow (-0.09%) and Rusell 2000 (-1.93%)

• The chip rout deepened to a sixth session, with AI credit stress spreading into CoreWeave's bonds

• Wild price action for yields, with the US 2-year finished flat at 4.80% but briefly surged 15 bps to 4.95%, the US 10-year is down 2 bps despite spiking 11 bps to 5.32%

• Middle East escalation kept Brent above US$105 after the Houthis hit Aramco's headquarters and Iran flagged new tanker tactics