ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 2nd November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, November 2. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

October’s biggest ASX 200 winners and losers

[9:47 am] October's leaderboard features a mix of software, real estate and energy, with Data#3's gains supercharged by a 1H27 guidance upgrade on 10 October.

The laggards last month mostly featured lithium, uranium and gold names, while NextDC experienced 41% one-day selloff on 21 October after downgrading its FY27 guidance.

Lotus Resources ships first uranium concentrate from Kayelekera

[9:44 am] Lotus Resources, which is restarting the Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, has despatched its first shipment of product, marking the start of revenue generation as the operation continues to ramp up.

• First shipment of around 145k lbs of uranium ore concentrate, loaded across 4 containers, departed Kayelekera bound for Walvis Bay

• Delivery to Orano’s CE Malvesi facility in France is expected by the end of the calendar year

• Subsequent shipments are expected to leave the site before year end

• MD Greg Bittar called the despatch “a pivotal moment” and “one of the final steps in delivering product to customers and beginning to generate revenue and cashflows”, while the company continues to focus on optimising operations and ramping up production

Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)

Pioneer Credit signs three-year major bank deal, buys $14.4m portfolio

[9:37 am] Pioneer Credit, which buys and collects on consumer debt portfolios, has signed a three-year purchasing agreement with one of Australia’s big four banks and completed a $14.4 million first acquisition under it.

• The portfolio covers about 17,000 accounts with a face value of about $206m, bought for roughly 7 cents in the dollar

• Collections won’t start until active servicing begins in early February 2027, after the summer holiday period

• The agreement sets a framework for future purchases but carries no guaranteed minimum volume or value

• Pioneer is now the only buyer with agreements in place with all four major banks

Company page: Pioneer Credit (PNC)

Macro Metals signs binding deal to sell Nigerian iron ore project

[9:32 am] Macro Metals, a Western Australian mining services and resource development company, has signed a binding agreement to sell its Agbaja iron ore project in Nigeria for US$5.67 million, leaving it to focus solely on its WA businesses.

• The buyer is RSIN.SG, part of a group with mining, processing and steel interests that has operated in Nigeria for almost two decades

• Net proceeds are expected at about $5.25m, with roughly $2.8m of the $8.06m headline price going on success-based transaction costs

• A US$700,000 down payment is due into escrow by 7 November, refundable if the buyer’s confirmatory drilling grades come in well below historical assays

• Completion is scheduled for 7 December, but the buyer can extend by up to 40 days if drilling approvals or Nigerian competition clearance aren’t secured

• Macro expects about $7.7m in cash after completion, which will fund mining services growth, Yandi South payments and drilling at Yandi South, Mogul and Gibraltar East

Macro had just $392k in cash at 30 September against a $32.5m market cap, so don’t expect any crazy EV plays here.

Company page: Macro Metals (M4M)

Chalice strikes high-grade copper-gold in first Tennant Creek drilling

[9:30 am] Chalice Mining has made a shallow copper-gold discovery with its first ever drilling at the Kestrel prospect, in the Northern Territory’s Tennant Creek field.

• The discovery hole returned 15m @ 8.6g/t gold and 0.54% copper from 78m, including 2m @ 56.7g/t gold from 81m

• Wide-spaced follow-up holes hit the shallow zone over about 500m of strike and down to 140m, including 27m @ 0.57% copper from 120m

• Kestrel is open in all directions, with magnetics pointing to features over about 2.2km of strike and two parallel trends yet to be drilled

• Kestrel sits about 20km from Warrego, the field’s most productive mine at about 1.3Moz of gold and 91kt of copper, which South African gold miner Pan African Resources is studying as a processing hub

• Chalice has expanded its tenure to cover a potential 140km westward extension of the Tennant Creek field

• Chalice holds $53m in cash and liquid investments, with a gravity survey due to start in coming weeks and assays pending for eight more holes

Company page: Chalice Mining (CHN)

Regis drilling extends Duketon deposits, opens new target below Moolart Well

[9:28 am] Regis Resources’ half-year drilling extended several Duketon deposits and opened a new target near an existing mill, supporting its push to grow resources and extend mine life.

• Diamond drilling extended mineralisation about 200m south of the Garden Well South Reserve, including 6.2m @ 1.9g/t from 621m

• Rosemont’s mineralised host unit extends a further 600m south of the Stage 3 Resource and remains open

• Beamish South drilling is complete, including 14.3m @ 4.6g/t from 304m, with a resource update underway to assess a maiden Ore Reserve

• First diamond holes below the Moolart Well pits hit fresh-rock gold, including 16.6m @ 2.0g/t from 342m, close to the Moolart Well mill

• Havana South at Tropicana returned 12m @ 6.1g/t from 436m, as part of a 105-hole, 41,599m program

• Drilling at Kings Plains and Last Chance, near the McPhillamys project in New South Wales, confirmed gold along strike and beneath historic workings

Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

Resmed profit jumps on divestment gain as software revenue slips

[9:28 am] ResMed's September-quarter net income rose sharply largely due to a one-off gain on the divestment of subsidiaries, while its Residential Care Software business lost revenue and cash reserves fell as the company stepped up share buybacks.

• Revenue up 5.9% to US$1,414.8m, led by growth in Sleep and Breathing Health devices and masks

• Sleep and Breathing Health revenue up 7.7% to US$1,259.8m, while Residential Care Software revenue fell 6.7% to US$155.0m

• Net income up 20% to US$418.4m, boosted by a US$61.8m gain on the divestment of subsidiaries completed during the quarter

• Operating cash flow down 7.6% to US$422.4m, with cash and equivalents falling to US$1,010.7m after US$936.4m spent on share buybacks, including a US$450m accelerated share repurchase agreement

• Total debt cut to US$409.6m from US$659.4m after repaying US$250m of borrowings during the quarter

• Quarterly dividend up 10% to US$0.66 per share

Company page: ResMed (RMD)

St Barbara’s 15-Mile hub hit by surprise federal review

[9:26 am] A surprise call by Canada’s federal regulator to run its own impact assessment has clouded the permitting timeline for St Barbara’s 15-Mile Processing Hub, its key Nova Scotia growth project. These were announced as three separate announcements covering the Touquoy restart, Old Austen resource and on-market buyback.

• The Impact Assessment Agency of Canada has ruled a federal review is required, despite a Canada-Nova Scotia agreement designed to avoid duplicate assessments

• St Barbara will spend the next three weeks with both governments working out whether the review just adds cost and workload or threatens the mid-2028 construction start

• Planning has begun to resume mining at the Touquoy open pit as a contingency, supplementing stockpiles to extend production beyond CY27

• Touquoy restarted on schedule after provincial sign-off, with first ore processing to begin at the official reopening on 3 November

• Nova Scotia resources rose 20% to 3.0Moz at 1.4g/t gold, including a maiden 0.5Moz underground resource at 3.4g/t at Old Austen

• An on-market buyback of up to 100 million shares will begin around 23 November, with bought-back shares cancelled

Company page: St Barbara (SBM)

Westpac edges past profit ests as bad debts undershoot

[9:20 am] Westpac’s FY26 cash profit came in slightly ahead of Macquarie’s forecasts as lower-than-expected impairment charges offset a softer net interest margin.

• Loans up 5% to $901.3bn and deposits up 6% to $766.2bn, with business lending up 12% and institutional lending up 18%

• Net interest margin down 7bps to 1.87% vs 1.89% ests (2bps miss), with core NIM down 5bps to 1.76% on mortgage and business lending competition

• Pre-provision profit up 4% to $10.9bn vs $10.9bn ests (in line), with the cost-to-income ratio improving 116bps to 51.9%

• Impairment charges more than doubled to $864m vs $954m ests (9% below), driven by new overlays for energy-intensive sectors and discretionary spending

• Net profit excluding Notable Items flat at $7.0bn vs $6.89bn ests (2% beat)

• Statutory net profit down 1% to $6.8bn

• Final dividend of 77cps fully franked, taking the FY26 total up 1% to 154cps vs 154cps ests (in line)

• CET1 capital ratio of 12.5%, down 7bps but $2.9bn above the 11.25% target after the final dividend

Company page: Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

AVID matches Warburg Pincus with $5.50-a-share bid for Ingenia

[9:16 am] Ingenia's takeover contest escalated after AVID Property Group used its matching right to lift its offer to the same total value as Warburg Pincus's latest proposal, prompting Ingenia's board to cut off Warburg Pincus's due diligence access while it keeps working towards its agreed scheme with Peet.

• AVID raised its cash offer to $5.45 per stapled security from $5.35, with the new price not reduced by any interim distribution

• Total potential value of up to $5.50 per security once a permitted distribution of up to $0.05 is included, matching Warburg Pincus's Latest Proposal

• Ingenia's board found the revised AVID proposal equal or superior to the Warburg Pincus proposal and terminated Warburg Pincus's access to due diligence

• The AVID Process Deed remains on foot, with the board stopping short of declaring the revised proposal a Bidder Superior Proposal under its scheme deed with Peet

• Ingenia continues to work with Peet towards implementing its proposed acquisition of Peet, with no certainty any AVID transaction will eventuate

Company page: Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

KMD Brands grants Bluestar Alliance exclusivity over takeover approach

[9:15 am] KMD Brands, owner of the Kathmandu, Rip Curl and Oboz outdoor brands, has entered an exclusivity agreement with US consumer brand group Bluestar Alliance to progress a possible full takeover.

NZX-listed KMD shares are up 15% to NZ$2.15 at the time of writing.

• Exclusivity granted to Bluestar Alliance LLC, a US-based consumer brand group, to carry out confirmatory due diligence on a possible acquisition of all KMD shares

• Discussions follow KMD's FY26 results announcement on 23 September 2026, when the company flagged indicative approaches received during its business review

• Exclusivity runs to a long stop date of 23 December 2026, with scope to extend if specified conditions are met

• No binding proposal has been received, with KMD saying there is no certainty the process will result in one or that any transaction will be consummated

• Board has not recommended any transaction, and says shareholders do not need to take any action at this time

Company page: KMD Brands (KMD)

Wall Street bets on gridlock as midterms approach

[9:03 am] Wall Street is largely backing a divided Congress as the best outcome for stocks in Tuesday’s US midterms, with a Democratic sweep seen as the biggest risk.

• BofA and Citi are among those calling for gridlock, with Citi’s Stuart Kaiser saying a stymied Congress is ideal while profits boom and GDP grows steadily

• The S&P 500 has averaged 13.7% a year under a Republican president and split Congress since 1950, vs 8.3% under a Republican Congress and 4.9% under a Democratic one, per Carson Investment Research

• A Democratic sweep, which Kalshi favours, is seen as most likely to spark a selloff on the risk of AI regulation, from data centre curbs to rules on model development

• Healthcare could benefit if Democrats push to reverse Medicaid cuts, while defence contractors have already slumped on expectations of tighter spending scrutiny

• A Republican hold, which polls suggest is unlikely, would keep the AI backdrop intact and could spark a rally in financials and industrials

• The S&P 500 is up 10.7% through October vs about 1% for the average midterm year, which typically finishes up around 5%, per Truist

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees 9% S&P 500 drop before rally to 8,000

[9:03 am] Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson expects one more leg lower for the S&P 500 before a rebound to 8,000, with a broader recovery possibly emerging after the midterms.

• Wilson sees the S&P 500 falling to about 7,100, roughly 9% below its record and 6% below Friday’s close of 7,580.07

• He cites political uncertainty, AI spending concerns and tightening liquidity, but says an underlying correction has already been underway for months

• US stocks have risen in the six and 12 months after every midterm since 1950, per Morgan Stanley, though the Iran war and policy uncertainty could disrupt the pattern

• Political opposition to data centres and extra regulation could constrain AI infrastructure, though Wilson expects some resistance to ease after the election

• Wilson is relaxed about the surge in equity and debt raising for AI and M&A, saying strong economic growth is absorbing the capital

Apple turns negatively correlated to Nasdaq for first time, says Goldman

[9:02 am] Goldman Sachs says the AI investment cycle remains the largest driver of macro markets, even after a bruising fortnight undercut its call for a year-end rally.

• Goldman had flagged hyperscaler results and the midterms as peak event risk, with a year-end rally led by the biggest stocks likely once both cleared

• It also argued AI sentiment had swung too far since the end of the June quarter, but conceded every step forward has been met by two steps back

• Apple is now negatively correlated to the Nasdaq for the first time ever, as rotation within the AI trade drives unprecedented breakdowns in stock correlations

RBA tipped to hike on Tuesday in big week for central banks

[8:57 am] The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected by most observers to raise rates again on Tuesday after inflation kept accelerating, one of several possible hikes globally this week.

• The RBA decision lands Tuesday, while Monday’s housing data is expected to show prices still falling across the country

• US payrolls on Friday are forecast to show job growth more than doubled to 65,000 in October, with unemployment steady at 4.2%

• The Bank of England is likely to hike on Thursday for the first time in more than three years

• Sweden’s Riksbank may lift rates 25 basis points to 2% on Wednesday, and a Czech hike is also on the cards

• Brazil’s central bank may now hold at 13.75% rather than cut, after Lula’s shock election win sparked a sharp market selloff

Iran orders military to prepare for retaliation without geographic limits

[8:56 am] Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered commanders to prepare an immediate response to any new US-Israeli attack, as Gulf states race to head off another round of fighting.

• Mojtaba Khamenei told the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, army and armed forces to expand retaliation plans with no geographic limits

• Donald Trump has ruled out fresh strikes before Tuesday’s midterms but left the door open while peace talks remain deadlocked

• Iran wants the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington demands nuclear concessions

• Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said mediators are discussing a plan to reopen the strait within two days if the US meets Tehran’s conditions

• A Qatari LNG cargo bound for Pakistan was attacked near Hormuz on Friday, hours after Iran reportedly approved its safe passage

• Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan travelled to Tehran last week, while Qatar held talks in Tehran and Doha

Fed officials make case for more rate hikes

[8:49 am] Three Federal Reserve officials backed further rate hikes on Friday, two days after the central bank held steady, with markets now pricing a December move.

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a 2026 voter, says the Fed needs at least two more 25 basis point hikes before pausing to assess

• St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem says further tightening is needed soon, arguing smaller early moves are less disruptive than abrupt ones later

• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin backed a gradual approach, citing high inflation, solid demand and relatively low unemployment

• The Fed held its target range at 3.75–4% on Wednesday, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike

• Futures are pricing a roughly 76% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the 8–9 December meeting, per CME FedWatch

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge accelerated to 3.6% in September, while third-quarter GDP grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4%

Gold hits one-year low as higher-for-longer rate bets build

[8:49 am] Gold fell to its lowest level since October 2025 on Friday as rising energy prices and hawkish central banks firmed expectations that US rates will stay higher for longer.

• Spot gold fell 2.7% to US$3,910.53 an ounce, on track for a second straight monthly decline and down 5.9% in October

• Spot silver dropped 5.8% to US$49.34 an ounce, below US$50 for the first time since November 2025

• The Fed and ECB both held rates this week but flagged inflation risks from surging energy costs

• Commerzbank said margin calls from the tech selloff may have added to the fall, but it sees the drop as overdone and expects a recovery

• Physical demand in Asia stayed soft, with Indian buyers holding off for lower prices and Chinese demand muted

Source: Reuters

Binance resumes withdrawals after record US$6.3 billion hack

[8:48 am] Binance has reopened withdrawals after the largest crypto theft on record, saying it has restored backing for about 90% of the stolen assets.

• About US$6.3bn in tokens was stolen from Binance’s hot wallets, with the theft announced on Thursday

• The FBI has attributed the hack to North Korea, saying the stolen assets were laundered by converting them into Ethereum

• Binance says major tokens including BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL and XRP are fully backed, with the outstanding 10% in less liquid tokens outside its top 10

• The exchange is tapping its Secure Asset Fund for Users, part of its futures insurance fund and its corporate treasury to cover the shortfall

• Withdrawals have resumed on the Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB Smart Chain networks

Canada and US to work on trade deal in coming weeks

[8:48 am] Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he and Donald Trump will work toward a trade deal in the coming weeks, reviving talks that collapsed in August.

• Carney said the call built on recent discussions on a deal that would create jobs and respect Canada’s sovereignty

• The White House said it welcomes continued engagement as it works toward completing a deal

• Talks collapsed in August partly over US tariff relief for medium and heavy-duty vehicles, which Canada wanted included

• The update comes two days before the US midterms, where polls suggest Democrats are likely to win the House and the Senate is roughly a coin toss

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq suffers worst day since June as Intel and Amazon spook AI trade

[8:47 am] The Nasdaq 100 briefly slipped into correction territory on Friday after Intel’s weak guidance and Amazon’s results deepened worries over the return on AI spending.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, the Dow lost 1.09% and the Nasdaq slid 2.86%, its biggest one-day drop since 5 June

• The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.46%, hitting an intraday low 10% below its 6 October record before closing 9.1% below it

• Intel plunged 28.6% after guiding to fourth-quarter revenue of US$15–16bn, below the US$16.5bn it just reported

• The chips index shed 7.2%, taking its October loss past 15%, with AMD down 10.9%, Dell down 10.8% and Nvidia down 4.2%

• Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose 2.2% and 2.8% after beating profit ests on war-driven margins

• Of the 299 S&P 500 companies to report so far, 82% have beaten ests, with third-quarter earnings growth tracking at 31.6% year-on-year

Big Tech cash burn deepens as AI commitments top US$3 trillion

[8:46 am] Three of the four hyperscalers posted negative free cash flow in the September quarter, and investors are now punishing AI spenders that can’t show a return.

• Alphabet shares plunged 13% on Thursday, their worst day ever, on weak search revenue and a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow

• Amazon’s negative free cash flow hit nearly US$35bn vs positive US$430m in 3Q25, sending shares down 5.6% over two sessions

• Microsoft was the exception with US$18.6bn of free cash flow and stronger-than-expected Azure growth, but still fell 1.6% on Friday

• Meta is down 12% since lifting its capex plans on 21 October, and S&P Global cut its credit rating outlook to negative from stable

• Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle hold more than US$3tn in spending commitments, led by Alphabet at over US$1tn and Meta at US$825bn

• ServiceNow tumbled a record 31% on a weak sales forecast and Twilio sank 18%, reviving fears of AI disruption to software

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 4 pts (-0.04%). Here's what happened overnight:

• The AI selloff deepened as Intel's guidance miss and Amazon's cash burn handed the Nasdaq its worst day since June

  • S&P 500 (-1.82%), Nasdaq (-2.86%), Dow (-1.09%), Russell 2000 (-1.66%)

  • US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-1.82%), Nasdaq (-2.86%), Dow (-0.85%) and Russell 2000 (+1.29%)

• Fed hawks lined up behind more rate hikes, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan calling for at least two more as gold slid to a one-year low

• Oil held its October gains after fresh Hormuz tanker attacks, while Trump said the US could finish off Iran's remaining nuclear sites in ten minutes