ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 21st July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 21. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Critical metals broadly higher

[2:04 pm] Graphite, rare earths and palladium stocks are trading broadly higher on Tuesday, with Syrah Resources leading the pack thanks to an upgrade from Jarden.

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AMP eyes February highs

[1:55 pm] AMP opened 2.6% higher, currently up 9.4% after its Q2 update highlighted strong inflows, in-line with analyst expectations.

As we noted earlier this morning: The sum of platforms, super/investments and NZ wealth management AUM of $153.9bn is in-line with Macquarie estimates of $153bn (as at Jul-25).

It does feel like the market was positioned for a strong update, given the recent updates and price action (stock up ~27% between 23-Jun and 18-Jul).

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ASX 200 on track for worst day since April

[1:45 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is currently down 104 points and on track for its worst day since 9 April. Breadth is overwhelmingly negative, with 157 constituents (79%) trading lower.

Financials are a massive drag today, with Westpac (-3.2%), NAB (-2.7%), ANZ (-2.6%) and Commonwealth Bank (-2.5%) all trading sharply lower.

S&P/ASX 200 sector breakdown (Source: Market Index)

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Chinese lithium futures open higher

[11:33 am] Chinese lithium futures opened 2.3% higher to 71,116 yuan a tonne, this marks the highest level since April. The strong price move is driving broad gains for most local lithium names.

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Small caps making moves

[10:50 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

Graphite stocks continue catch a bid after US plans to impose a 93.5% tariff on graphite imports.

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Analysts take on Mesoblast

[10:49 am] Mesoblast's first full quarter of Ryoncil revenue came in line with expectations, marking a strong commercial debut despite limited pre-launch setup and early reimbursement access.

The market responded positively last Friday (shares surged 35%) as analysts highlighted solid underlying demand, early physician support, and growing site coverage. Momentum was further supported by progress on adult label expansion and Revascor’s accelerated approval pathway.

Notable broker updates include:

• Bell Potter retained Buy, raised target from $3.40 to $3.50. Highlighted strong early uptake for Ryoncil, broader reimbursement coverage, and sees Revascor partnership as a key catalyst.

• Jefferies downgraded to Hold from Buy, raised target from $2.50 to $2.60. Noted solid patient adoption, but flagged the need for sustained reimbursement progress to support momentum.

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Top losers in early trade

[10:16 am] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing the largest decline in early trade.

Insignia says it continues to engage in discussions with CC Capital, but reiterates there is "no certainty that the ongoing discussions will result in any transaction." Meanwhile, Mesoblast is experiencing a minor pullback after rallying 34% last Friday.

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Top gainers in early trade

[10:15 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers in early trade.

Catalyst driven moves include: Block is surging after its S&P 500 inclusion announcement, AMP reported a solid June quarter flows update.

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AMP reports second quarter flow update

[9:48 am] AMP reported its second quarter cashflow update, including:

• Platform net cash flows increase 63.2% to $1.56bn

• Platform assets under management (AUM) up 5.6% to $83.2bn

• Superannuation & investments AUM was $58.5bn (1Q25: $55.8bn)

• New Zealand Wealth Management AUM was $12.2bn (1Q25: $11.6bn)

• AMP Bank total loan book of $23.5bn (1Q25: $23.3bn)

• AMP Bank total deposits of $20.5bn (1Q25: $20.7bn)

"Against the backdrop of this positive momentum, investment markets remain volatile, and we continue to see sustained competitive pressure, as well as accelerating pace of change, driven by AI. In this environment, we remain focused on the ongoing execution of our strategy," said CEO Alexis George.

The sum of platforms, super/investments and NZ wealth management AUM of $153.9bn is in-line with Macquarie estimates of $153bn (as at Jul-25).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: AMP (AMP)

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IperionX and Meteoric Resources halted for capital raisings

[9:38 am] Two strong performing small caps have halted this morning, pending an announcement regarding a proposed capital raising.

IperionX has almost recovered a near 65% drawdown (Jan-Apr) and up 23.5% in the past month. The company is an American producer of titanium alloys and critical minerals.

Meteoric Resources shares have surged 24% in the past month and up 82% year-to-date amid a broad-based rally for rare earth stocks. The company recently presented a PFS for its Caldeira Project, highlighting it as the largest ionic clay resources globally, with low average operating costs of US$21.8/kg NdPr.

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Abacus Storage King grants Ki and Public Storage access to due diligence

[9:23 am] Abacus Storage King REIT has granted Ki and Public Storage access to due diligence for six weeks, commencing today.

Abacus rejected an initial (13-May) takeover proposal from the group at $1.47 per share (after distributions), deeming it undervalued compared to a pro-forma NTA of $1.73 per share.

Last week, the company received a revised takeover at $1.65 per share, representing a 15% increase to the prior offer.

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Playside misses FY25 guidance

[9:20 am] Playside reported unaudited FY25 revenue of $48.5-49.0 million vs. its recent guidance of $50-54 million (6.2% miss at the midpoint).

"Original IP revenues on individual titles were in line with projections, however subsequent to the Company’s restructure in April several smaller titles were cancelled that were either in soft launch or late-stage development which explains the variance relative to guidance," the company said in a statement.

The company expects to report an EBITDA loss between $7.2-7.7 million, in-line with its prior guidance of a $6-10 million loss. While its cash balance at 30 June 2025 was $13.4-13.6 million (vs. previous guidance of $10-15 million).

Playside has been in a massive downward spiral since mid-2024, following a series of earnings downgrades and management changes. The stock is down 52% year-to-date and down 73% in the past twelve months.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Playside Studios (PLY)

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Perenti expects free cash flow to smash guidance

[9:14 am] Perenti says FY25 free cash flow is expected to be $280 million, well above prior guidance of at least $150 million, Citi analysts (Jun-25) also forecasted FY25 free cash flow of $153 million (~86% beat vs. their ests).

Management attributed the significant improvement in free cash flow generation to:

• $75m from sale of Botswana site property, plant & equipment

• $17m from sale of inventory

• Strong cash conversion (>95%)

• Lower capex (~$300m vs. $330m guided)

Perenti reaffirmed its FY25 revenue guidance of $3.4-3.6 billion and EBITDA guidance of $325-345 million. The strong cash flow will reduce net debt and improve leverage to 0.5x at 30 June 2025.

The stock broke out to levels not seen since December 2019 last week, and up 19% year-to-date.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Perenti (PRN)

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Regis Resources hits top end of FY25 guidance

[9:06 am] Regis Resources reported FY25 production of 373koz, towards the top end of its guidance range and AISC of A$2,531/oz, in the bottom half of guidance range.

The company closed out FY25 with a cash and bullion position of $517 million, reflecting a build over the quarter of $150 million and a net build of $222 million of the year, after paying down $300 million debt in January 2025.

The announcement included FY26 guidance, which noted:

• Group gold production of 350-380koz vs. Macquarie ests (May-25) of 374koz

• AISC of A$2,610-2,990/oz vs. Macquarie (May) and Citi (Jun) ests of A$2,543 and ~A$2,500 respectively

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

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Bruce Gordon eyes control of Nine

[8:59 am] Bruce Gordon, owner of WIN Television and already Nine’s largest shareholder, is considering taking control of Nine Entertainment.

Birketu (Gordon’s investment company) recently lifted its economic interest in Nine to 25.22% and voting interest to 19.98% — just under the 20% threshold that would trigger a mandatory takeover bid.

The sale of Nine’s 60% stake in Domain (to CoStar for A$4.43/share) is expected to complete in the September quarter, likely reducing Nine’s valuation and making it more vulnerable to a takeover.

Sources close to Gordon have told The Australian that he is considering a full takeover bid, but more likely to seek the use of creep provisions to increase his stake by 3% every six months.

Source: The Australian

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Fed Waller reiterates support for July rate cut

[8:55 am] Fed Governor Waller called for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to move policy closer to neutral and support a slowing economy.

Here are some of the key takeaways from his speech titled "The Case for Cutting Now":

• Tariffs are a one-off price shock, not a sustained inflation driver. Central banks should look through these effects if inflation expectations remain anchored.

• Real GDP growth is tracking at around 1% in 1H25, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in 2H24 and below potential growth estimates.

• Consumer spending has weakened materially, with real personal consumption growth falling to around 1%.

• Labour market risks are rising despite stable headline figures. Private-sector job growth is near stall speed, with expected data revisions likely to show even weaker gains.

• PCE inflation is around 2.5% headline and 2.7% core, largely driven by temporary tariff effects.

• Adjusting for tariffs, underlying inflation is close to the Fed’s 2% target.

• The Fed should cut sooner rather than later to avoid falling behind the curve if growth or employment weakens further.

• Cutting in July gives the Fed flexibility — if inflation and employment remain stable, it can pause at future meetings.

Source: Fed speech

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Euroz Harley shareholders approve capital return

[8:52 am] Euroz Harleys shareholders have voted in favour of the company's capital return initiative, which seeks to return $23 million in the form of a special dividend.

This equates to 14 cents per share, or a yield of approximately 13.2% based on the stock's $1.055 close on Friday.

Euroz will trade ex-dividend on 5 August.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Euroz Harley (EZL)

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Block shares to soar on S&P 500 inclusion

[8:50 am] NYSE-listed Block shares rallied 8.5% in extended trading on Friday, as the company is set to join the S&P 500.

Hess will be removed from the Index after Chevron completed its US$54 billion acquisition of the oil producer.

Block will officially join the S&P 500 before the opening of trading on Thursday, 24 July.

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Solid earnings, muted reactions

[8:46 am] Here are some of the key US reporters from last Friday.

Netflix (-5.1%)

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: Revenue grew 16% to $11.08bn, with earnings of $7.19 per share representing a 46% increase from the same time last year. Beat consensus estimates which expected around $7.07 EPS.

• Key Drivers: U.S. and Canada revenue grew by 15% in Q2 compared to 9% in Q1 thanks to price increases, with operating margin improving to 33% (up from 27% in 2024).

• Forward Guidance: Netflix raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to $44.8-45.2bn, up from the previous target of $43.5-44.5bn.

American Express (-2.3%)

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: Earnings and revenue topped analysts' expectations. But expenses rose 14% to $12.9bn vs. $12.7bn ests.

• Key Drivers: “We saw record card member spending in the quarter, demand for our premium products was strong and our credit performance remained best in class," said CEO Steve Squeri.

3M (-3.6%)

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: Reported second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.16 on revenue of $6.16bn, both above estimates.

• Forward Guidance: Raised full-year adjusted profit guidance to $7.75-8.00 per share, compared with previous estimate of $7.60-7.90 and projected tariffs would create a smaller hit to earnings this year than previously expected

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Earnings misses face punishment on Wall Street

[8:41 am] US earnings season is off to a strong start, powered by resilient consumer demand, solid margins and growing corporate profits.

Despite strong results, market reactions have been muted, suggesting good news is largely priced in. Bloomberg notes that:

• Netflix and United Airlines beat across key metrics, but saw limited or negative stock reaction (e.g. Netflix fell over 5%).

• Financials crushed earnings expectations with a 94.4% beat rate, but shares barely moved.

• Beats are being rewarded less, with only modest outperformance at the index level.

• The S&P 500 is near record highs, trading at 22x forward earnings, indicating elevated expectations.

• High valuations mean low margin for error — companies that miss are getting punished more severely than at any time since 2022.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 49pts (-0.56%) after a relatively soft overnight session (Nasdaq +0.05%, S&P 500 -0.01% and Dow -0.32%).

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.