ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 12th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, January 12. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 fades early gains, gold stocks back at record highs

[1:59 pm] ASX 200 currently up 0.38%, down from session highs of 0.78% (it feels like we fade from highs pretty much every session for the past two weeks). Breadth remains solid, with 138 constituents (69%) trading higher. Continue to see some of the more battered sectors lead sector gains, notably Discretionary (+1.81%), Staple (+1.05%), Energy (+0.96%) and Healthcare (+0.79%).

All Ords Gold Index (XGD) is up 2.9% and near intraday highs, on track to close at all-time highs. This move is in-line with gold prices, currently up 1.5% to a record US$4,577. The Small Ords (+1.0%) is also on track to record a seven day win streak and a fifth straight day of record closes.

Overall, large caps remain somewhat dicey, but we're seeing plenty of life among sub-sectors like small caps, resources (gold, lithium, tin, precious metals etc.) and improved participation.

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Coal stocks surge

[12:46 pm] Met/coking coal futures now trading around US$230 a tonne.

• Prices rallied 2.7% overnight

• Up around 15% in the past month

• Rallied more than 30% since Mar-25 lows

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Rare earth and precious metal stocks rally

[12:43 pm] A relatively broad-based rally for all-things rare earths and precious metals. Commodities like platinum (+3.7%), palladium (+2.9%) and silver (+4.2%) are all higher this afternoon.

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Elevra Lithium accelerates NAL expansion by ~2 years

[11:26 am] A staged plan brings forward additional spodumene production while reducing upfront capital and operating costs.

• Incremental production now expected ~2 years earlier than prior plan, targeting 315ktpa of spodumene concentrate by early CY28.

• Initial 15‑20% production uplift from mid-CY27 achieved within existing permits through debottlenecking.

• Further expansion to 6,500 tpd and full 315ktpa output by early CY28, with final crushing and ore-sorting upgrade by early CY29.

• Staged approach lowers upfront capital requirements and unit operating costs, with detailed scoping study due Q2 CY26.

Company page: Elevra Lithium (ELV)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:59 am] Light & Wonder is trading sharply higher after a court ruling that the company needs to compensate Aristocrat Leisure US$127.5 million (~A$190m) for infringement of intellectual property relating to its Dragon Train game. The outcome appears better than feared, clearing the stock of a significant overhang. Elsewhere, gold, aluminium and asset managers (Pinnacle and Regal both up more than 6%) are also trading sharply higher.

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ASX 200 higher, all sectors green

[10:51 am] ASX 200 looking very strong in early trade, up 0.73% and hovering around intraday highs. All eleven sectors higher, with 162 constituents (81%) in positive territory.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: TradingView)

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Zip, Block rally on Trump's potential 10% cap on credit card rates

[10:42 am] Zip is experiencing a massive intraday rally, up 6.4% ($3.80) vs. a 0.2% ($3.57) open.

The rationale here is that if credit card issuers like Mastercard and Visa are forced into a 10% cap, they'll likely reduce their exposure to risky borrowers or reject them outright. Credit cards rely on higher interest rates to offset the risk of lending to consumers with lower credit scores or unstable income. If issuers can't charge enough to compensate for that risk, they'll simply stop lending to these customers. This creates a structural tailwind for BNPL, as consumers who can no longer access traditional credit will pivot to alternative offerings.

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RBC's take on Super Retail

[10:35 am] Shares in Super Retail Group currently down 5.7% ($14.81) after reporting a weaker-than-expected preliminary 1H26 trading update. Some of the key takeaways from RBC analyst Michael Toner this morning include:

• Sales growth trends were relatively strong outside of BCF

• Realised GMs softer due to discounting and promotional activity, particularly in Rebel

• Rebel's profit before tax was 13.7% below consensus expectations

• Flat Group gross margins missed market expectations for an improvement

• "We expect market focusses on softer margin result today and GM contraction likely a negative read for apparel retailer profitability in December."

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Electro Optic Systems to buy MARSS

[10:09 am] The acquisition adds advanced counter-drone and AI-enabled command capabilities, with limited near-term financial impact.

• EOS to acquire MARSS for $36m cash plus potential earnouts up to €100m (~A$174m), paid in cash and EOS shares.

• Earnouts tied to new third-party MARSS contracts, with €20m payable per €100m of orders, capped at €100m.

• Transaction expected to be broadly neutral to EOS earnings and operating cash flow in 2026.

• MARSS brings sensor-fusion, AI-enabled C2 systems, NiDAR technology, IP, customer contracts, and skilled personnel to EOS.

Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

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Super Retail 1H26 unaudited results

[9:55 am] Super Retail Group reported a relatively disappointing preliminary result for the first half of FY26. Wouldn't be surprised to see some downward pressure as the market opens.

• Revenue of $2.2bn, in-line with ests of $2.21bn

• Total sales growth of 4.2% year-on-year, this marks deceleration vs. the prior trading update (23-Oct first 16 weeks of FY26 had total sales growth of 4.5%)

• Like-for-like sales growth of 2.5% year-on-year, also a slight deceleration vs. the 23-Oct update where LFL sales was up 2.6% for the first 16 week of FY26

• Guides to normalised 1H26 PBT of $172-175m vs. $195m ests (11% miss)

Key management commentary:

• " The Group traded well, albeit with an elevated level of promotional intensity impacting realised gross margins, most notably in rebel."

• "BCF did not match the strong level of sales from the prior year. Fishing and Marine categories were heavily impacted in the period by macro weather/environmental factors in Victoria and South Australia."

Company page: Super Retail Group (SUL)

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Regal Partners guides well ahead of estimates

[9:46 am] The fund manager’s updated CY25 NPAT guidance significantly exceeds analyst expectations, driven by strong performance fees.

• CY25 normalised NPAT guidance of ~$145m vs. $107.1m ests (35% beat)

• Represents year-on-year growth of ~48%

• Outperformance attributed to ~$130m in performance fees earned in the second half of 2025

• Preliminary FUM at December 2025 reached $20.8bn, up 15.5% year-on-year, supported by net inflows of ~$80m.

Company page: Regal Partners (RPL)

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Light & Wonder to pay Aristocrat $127 million over game IP

[9:37 am] A global settlement resolves disputes over alleged misuse of Aristocrat’s proprietary math in two popular pokies games.

• Light & Wonder admits certain Aristocrat math information was used in Dragon Train and Jewel of the Dragon games.

• Light & Wonder will pay Aristocrat US$127.5m (~A$190m) and cease commercialisation of both games worldwide.

• Light & Wonder will destroy all documents containing Aristocrat’s intellectual property and commit to no further use.

• Legal claims in Australia and the US will be dismissed following the settlement.

In Jun-25, Citi analysts said "that it appears it will be more difficult for Aristocrat to prove there has been contagion of its trade secrets to other Light & Wonder titles beyond Dragon Train." While the outcome is a net negative, to damage is at least contained to just Dragon Train and Jewel of the Dragon Games.

Dragon Train is estimated to contribute less than 5% of 2025 EBITDA, while Jewel of the Dragon's contribution is immaterial.

Company page: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), Light & Wonder (LNW)

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ACCC signals court battle with Coles and Woolworths over pricing

[9:28 am] The competition watchdog is preparing legal action under new price gouging laws, with high stakes for both retailers and ACCC credibility.

• ACCC expects to launch cases within 12 months, alleging Coles and Woolworths misled consumers with “promotional” price drops while actually raising prices.

• Woolworths allegedly misrepresented 266 products over 20 months, and Coles 245 products over 15 months, with fines potentially reaching $50m per breach.

• Retailers argue most price rises were driven by supplier cost pressures, highlighting tension between enforcement and industry realities.

• New laws targeting excessive pricing in supermarkets over $30bn revenue could see penalties of up to 10% of turnover per breach.

As a side note, what's with the obsession with crushing Woolworths and Coles? Woolworths had revenue of $69.1 billion in FY25, which resulted in an NPAT of $1.38 billion, a profit margin of just 2.0%. What exactly do people expect them to do? Lower prices until they're operating at zero margin? With a payout ratio of 74% in FY25, profits are already being returned almost entirely to shareholders.

Source: AFR | Company page: Coles (COL), Woolworths (WOW)

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Trump floats temporary cap on credit card interest rates

[9:15 am] A proposed one-year cap on credit card rates marks a sharp turn toward populist economic policy, though legal authority and implementation remain unclear.

• Trump announced a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates from January 20, far below the current average APR of 22.3%, signalling direct intervention in consumer finance pricing.

• The proposal lacks a clear legal pathway, with uncertainty over presidential authority without congressional approval.

• Parallel bipartisan legislation exists, with a Sanders and Hawley-backed bill proposing a five-year 10% cap, suggesting political cover but no guarantee of passage.

• The announcement fits a broader push to address cost-of-living pressures, reinforcing a shift toward interventionist rhetoric despite structural and regulatory constraints.

No major changes in names like PayPal (-1.0%) and Mastercard (-0.7%) overnight.

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Court win strengthens GreenX compensation claim

[9:13 am] A Singapore court ruling removed a major legal overhang, reinforcing GreenX’s position in enforcing a large arbitration award against Poland.

• The Singapore International Commercial Court dismissed Poland’s attempt to overturn the Energy Charter Treaty award, validating the October 2024 ruling in GreenX’s favour.

• The award totals £183m in compensation and interest, with the combined claims worth £252m (~A$519m) vs. the company's current market cap of ~A$255m

• Interest continues to accrue, adding roughly £17m by end-2025, materially increasing the eventual payout if enforcement succeeds.

• The ruling strengthens GreenX’s hand in parallel English court proceedings, where it plans to submit the Singapore judgment to counter Poland’s remaining challenges.

For context, GreenX’s dispute stems from Poland revoking key coal project licences after the company had invested heavily, prompting GreenX to claim expropriation and unfair treatment under international investment treaties, which led to the 2024 arbitration awards in its favour.

Company page: GreenX Metals (GRX)

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US jobs growth soft but labour market stabilises

[9:03 am] December payrolls undershot expectations, but firmer wages and a lower unemployment rate reinforced the view that the US labour market is cooling rather than breaking.

• Nonfarm payrolls rose ~50,000 vs. 60k expected, with downward revisions to October and November reinforcing a slower hiring trend into year-end.

• Unemployment edged down to 4.4% and participation held at 62.4%, suggesting labour supply and demand are broadly stabilising after recent soft patches.

• Wage pressures firmed, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-on-month and annual growth accelerating to 3.8%.

• Job gains were concentrated in services such as healthcare and hospitality, while retail shed jobs, highlighting ongoing sectoral divergence.

• Markets interpreted the data as pushing a January rate cut off the table, with implied easing repriced to ~48 bps for 2025, down from 52 bps before the data was released.

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Geopolitical risk flares across multiple fronts

[8:59 am] A cluster of policy shifts, military signals and political unrest is lifting global uncertainty, with markets watching how rhetoric translates into action.

• Venezuela and US tensions eased at the margin after Trump cancelled a second attack, citing cooperation on energy and political prisoners, though domestic pressure rose as GOP senators backed limits on unilateral military action.

• Mexico risked fresh strain with Washington as Trump flagged land-based strikes on drug cartels, framing them as de facto power brokers.

• Iran moved further into crisis mode as protests intensified, authorities cut internet access and senior security officials threatened harsher crackdowns, raising tail risks of internal instability.

• Russia and Ukraine tensions escalated with Moscow claiming use of a nuclear-capable missile, while bipartisan momentum built in the US Senate for tougher Russia sanctions as early as next week.

• China and Japan frictions deepened after Taiwan-related remarks from Japan’s PM, followed by China launching anti-dumping probes and trade restrictions on sensitive chipmaking materials, keeping Taiwan geopolitics in focus.

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Homebuilder stocks in focus

[8:57 am] Trump's housing push is driving homebuilder stocks sharply higher, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF up 5.1% overnight and up 9.1% in the last two sessions. It's now trading at the highest since 19-Sep-25.

State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)

James Hardie gained another 6.1% overnight after rally 4.3% in the previous session, now trading at the highest since its 1Q26 result on 20 August.

James Hardie (NYSE listed) daily chart (Source: TradingView)

James Hardie is now at a rather interesting juncture, given:

• On 18 Nov, JHX upgraded its FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.20-1.25bn vs. prior $1.05-1.15bn and $1.17bn ests. This represents an upgrade of 11% vs. prior estimates and 4.7% above consensus.

• Guidance commentary noted: “For Siding & Trim, we’ve seen more stable market conditions and normalised inventory levels than we had embedded in our prior outlook, giving us the confidence to modestly raise full-year guidance for the segment."

• The stock is on the cusp of trading above its 200-day moving average for the first time since late August 2025

Other US-exposed ASX-listed homebuilder stocks include Reliance Worldwide (RWC) and GWA Group (GWA).

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Mortgage bonds rally as Trump housing push tightens spreads

[8:50 am] Markets reacted to a proposed $200 billion agency mortgage bond purchase, driving tighter MBS spreads and a sharp rally in housing-linked equities despite scepticism on long-term affordability impacts.

• Mortgage risk premiums compressed as investors rotated into agency MBS, with spreads near their tightest levels since 2022 amid rising structural demand.

• US housing-related stocks surged, with Rocket Cos up nearly 10% and peers posting double-digit after-hours gains, signalling equity markets are pricing near-term stimulus benefits.

• The scale is meaningful, with $200bn equating to just over 2% of the $9tn agency MBS market, limiting the ultimate impact on mortgage rates.

• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac portfolios already sit at $234bn, the largest since 2021, reinforcing that incremental buying is an extension of an existing trend rather than a regime shift.

Source: Bloomberg

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S&P 500 closes at record highs as rally broadens

[8:47 am] S&P 500 (+0.65%) closed at fresh all-time highs overnight, as sectors including Staples, Industrials, Discretionary, Utilities and Materials all rallied more than one percent.

Interestingly, gains from Mag-7 names were relatively lacklustre (all up less than 1% except for Broadcom).

S&P 500 heatmap (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 29pts (+0.33%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Just cooking the Morning Wrap, be back in a moment. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed at record highs, while the Nasdaq is within 2% of 29-Oct-25 all-time high

• Commodity prices bounced after Thursday's broad pullback, notable gains from nickel (+4.3%), silver (+3.8%), copper (+1.4%) and gold (+0.70%)

• US December nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected, unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% vs. 4.5% consensus