ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 10th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 10. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Westpac flags mortgage market in "suspended animation" as rate uncertainty bites

[10:35 am] CFO Nathan Goonan used the 3Q26 call to temper conclusions on falling loan applications while conceding margins face a tougher second half.

• On application falls: "owner occupiers down 18% and investor down 26%, which I guess we probably draw some conclusions from that, that the rate impact is probably equal or potentially a bigger impact than anything that happened in the budget"

• On reading the data: "we do need to let this play out a little bit. The trends that we're seeing, we still believe are very consistent with the economic forecast of 4.7% growth in 2027, 6.8% in FY 2026"

• On mortgage competition: "I'd still expect us to be sub-system and I'd still expect us to be talking about mortgage competition as being a more pronounced part of our margin outcomes in when we get to the full year results"

• On the margin outlook: "it's hard to paint a picture that it's going up in margins, Andrew, I think a lot will depend on how the deposits play out and all the different moving parts there"

• On new provisioning: "we did raise a new overlay for discretionary spend... the knock on impact of the consumer that's making adjustments to the way they're living is we've just thought it was prudent to put in something around discretionary spend"

• On business lending: "the top end of town in our corporate sector in particular, there's quite strong growth... we would be very confident that we can continue at trends that are pretty similar to what you've seen this quarter"

Company page: Westpac (WBC)

Westpac tumbles on Q3 update

[10:27 am] The bank's 3Q26 update showed modest earnings growth underpinned by broad-based lending gains and a stable net interest margin. Westpac shares are down 4.8% to $36.10 in early trade.

• Net profit (ex Notable Items) up 2% to $1.8bn, with pre-provision profit up 1%

• Revenue up 1%, as a 2% rise in net interest income more than offset a 3% fall in non-interest income

• Average monthly mortgage application volumes down 11% quarter-on-quarter, with the post-budget run rate down 20% on 2Q26

• NIM stable at 1.89%, with core NIM up 1bp to 1.78% and a stronger Treasury and Markets contribution of 11bps versus 7bps in 2Q26

• Lending up 2% (business +4%, Institutional +3%, housing +2%) and deposits up 2%

• CET1 at 12.1%, well above the 11.25% target, with the completed RAMS portfolio sale adding 23bps and cutting the home loan book by $15.4bn

Company page: Westpac (WBC)

Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:22 am] CAR Group rallies on a relatively in-line FY26 result and FY27 guidance, while gold and uranium stocks open broadly higher. Meanwhile, Arena REIT tumbles after its tenant Edge Early Learning requested a deferral or abatement of rent in late July 2026 and Westpac tanks on its Q3 update.

FleetPartners draws $3.80 per share cash approach from Element

[9:49 am] Canada's Element Fleet Management has lobbed an indicative bid for the ANZ fleet manager, with a conditional sweetener on the table for board engagement.

• $3.80 cash per share, valuing FleetPartners at ~$820m (US$578m) equity and a 34.3% premium to the undisturbed $2.83 close on 31 July

• Offer lifts to $4.00 if the board agrees by 5pm Sydney on 11 August to a process deed granting three weeks of hard exclusivity for due diligence

• Non-binding, indicative and non-exclusive, leaving FleetPartners free to weigh rival proposals in the meantime

• Element expects the deal to be accretive and to preserve its balance sheet strength and flexibility

• Element's Custom Fleet arm has operated in Australia and New Zealand since 1978, underpinning its familiarity with the market

Company page: FleetPartners (FPR)

oOh!media backs $1.70 per share takeover from I Squared

[9:48 am] The out-of-home advertising group has agreed to a binding scheme at a 21% uplift to I Squared's initial April approach.

• Total consideration of $1.70 cash per share, comprising $1.68 scheme consideration and an interim fully franked 1H26 dividend of 2.0 cps

• Values oOh! at ~$898m equity and $1.04bn enterprise value

• 6.9% premium to the last close of $1.59 on 7 August, and 100% above the undisturbed close of $0.85 on 28 April

• 21.4% uplift ($0.30 per share) on I Squared's initial $1.40 non-binding proposal lodged 29 April

Company page: oOh!media (OML)

Sunrise lands conditional US$400m US government loan

[9:41 am] The 25-year facility from the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital comes as Sunrise also plans a US listing and lifts the project's scope and cost.

• Office of Strategic Capital has conditionally committed up to US$400m (~$570m) under a proposed 25-year debt facility to develop the 100%-owned Syerston scandium project in NSW

• Positioned as a cornerstone of Western scandium supply outside China, with initial output of about 60tpa of high-purity scandium oxide over a 32-year life, and a potential phase two lifting capacity to 180tpa

• Project scope broadened to include US-based scandium metal refining capacity, with revised capital estimate now $450-475m (US$315-333m), up on earlier costings after re-tendering and a larger contingency

• Commenced preparations for a US listing, subject to shareholder, court and regulatory approvals

• FID recommendation targeted for 2H26, with early works and long-lead procurement underway to preserve a first production target of 2H28

Company page: Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL)

CAR Group FY26 beats on profit, guides to solid growth in FY27

[9:30 am] The online classifieds group delivered double-digit constant-currency growth across its portfolio and guided to another year of double-digit gains.

• Adjusted revenue up 12% to $1.25bn vs $1.27bn ests (2% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 12% to $700m vs $701.2m ests (in line)

• Adjusted NPAT up 11% to $407.2m vs $405.5m ests (in line)

• Final dividend up 5% to 43.5 cps (30% franked, record 14 September, payable 12 October)

• Full-year dividend up 8% to 86 cps vs. Morgans' ests of 87.5 cps (1.7% miss)

• FY27 guidance for revenue growth of 11-14%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-13% and adjusted NPAT growth of 9-12%

Company page: CAR Group (CAR)

Tabcorp to buy BetMakers for $267m to modernise wagering tech

[9:22 am] The binding scheme values the technology provider at an enterprise value of around $267 million and is pitched as accretive from year two.

• Acquiring 100% of BetMakers at $0.24 a share via scheme of arrangement, implying an enterprise value of about $267m

• Represents a 50% premium to BetMakers last close of $0.16

• Targeting a run-rate $30m of pre-tax cost synergies by the end of year two, with revenue upside on top

• Expected to be EPS accretive from year two and double-digit EPS accretive from year three

• BetMakers holders can elect scrip for up to 25% of total consideration, struck at a minimum Tabcorp issue price of $1.00, a 12% premium to Tabcorp's last close

Company pages: Tabcorp (TAH), BetMakers Technology Group (BET)

FleetPartners rejects SG Fleet's $3.60 bid as Element counters at up to $4.00

[9:22 am] A bidding contest has emerged for the fleet leasing group, with the board knocking back the first approach hours before a higher rival offer landed.

• Board unanimously rejected SG Fleet's indicative $3.60 a share cash proposal, backed by Pacific Equity Partners, as undervaluing the company

• Element Fleet Management lobbed an indicative cash offer of $3.80 a share via scheme of arrangement after market close on 7 August

• Element would lift its offer to $4.00 a share if FleetPartners grants a three-week exclusivity period via a process deed by 5pm AEST on 11 August, with no increase flagged absent a superior proposal

• Element's offer is subject to due diligence, a scheme implementation agreement, and FIRB and ACCC approvals, and is conditional on no further dividends or capital returns beyond those already announced

Company page: FleetPartners Group (FPR)

Treasury Wine flags additional $558.4m US write-down

[9:19 am] The charge lands alongside better-than-expected FY26 earnings and a reiterated FY27 outlook. Treasury Wine shares are down 27% year-to-date, but up 61% from the 26 March low.

• Additional $558.4m post-tax material item charge in F26, a non-cash write-down of US assets and further brand impairments, incremental to the impairment taken at 1H26

• Actions include cutting North Coast vintage make sizes from 2026 (including fallowing vineyards) and writing down inventory, predominantly bulk wine, to be managed via bulk sales and reclassification

• Brand write-downs centred on DAOU, Frank Family Vineyards and Beaulieu Vineyard following a review of 30 June carrying values, with advisers appointed to review all options across the Americas portfolio

• Unaudited FY26 EBITS before material items expected at $492.3m, ahead of the $480-490m guidance range (about 2% above the midpoint)

• FY26 leverage now seen peaking at 2.8x, better than Investor Day guidance of 2.9x

• Reiterates FY27 EBITS to be at least equivalent to FY26, with Penfolds strength and Ascent cost benefits offsetting the US

Company page: Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

Arena REIT delays FY26 results as childcare tenant Edge defaults on rent

[9:18 am] The REIT has issued default notices and pushed back its results after Edge Early Learning stopped paying rent while pursuing a restructure.

• Edge, which leases 31 Arena properties across Queensland and South Australia and provides about 14% of annual rental income, missed rent due on 3 August after requesting a deferral or abatement in late July

• Arena issued default notices on 4 August and has declined the deferral/abatement request, with Edge and its lender given up to 21 days to remedy the default

• Holds a pooled bank guarantee and security deposits totalling around $4m from Edge, with cross-default provisions applying across the leased properties

• FY26 results pushed back to the week commencing 17 August (from 12 August) to allow an independent review of the valuation of Edge-tenanted properties

• FY26 distributable income and distributions are unaffected, with the annual distribution of 19.25 cents per security in line with guidance and up 5.5% on FY25

• Rolling 12-month average centre occupancy across the stabilised portfolio slipped to 76.7% at 31 March, from 79.3% a year earlier and below the five-year average of 78.7%

Company page: Arena REIT (ARF)

Insider trades: Newmont and Champion Iron

[9:11 am] Two higher-profile director transaction announcements dropped after market close on Friday.

• Newmont CFO Brian Tabolt sold ~11,400 shares, cutting his direct holding 28% to ~29,300 shares

• Champion Iron chairman William O'Keeffe sold 6.0m shares, reducing his stake 14% to 35.6m shares

Company page: Newmont (NEM), Champion Iron (CIA)

S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth runs at 50% but skewed by Alphabet and Amazon

[9:05 am] The blended growth rate is more than double end-of-quarter expectations, though two names are doing much of the lifting.

• Blended Q2 EPS growth of 50.4%, well above the 23.2% expected at the end of the quarter, falling to 32.0% excluding Alphabet and Amazon

• Blended revenue growth of 15.0%, with 88% of companies now reported

• 86% have beaten consensus EPS, above both the one-year (80%) and five-year (78%) averages, while 76% beat on sales, below the one-year average of 78% but above the five-year 70%

US payrolls unexpectedly shrink in July as hiring rolls over

[9:05 am] The fourth straight month of deceleration saw payrolls contract even as the jobless rate edged lower.

• Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July vs. ests for an 80,000 gain, the softest print since February's -156,000

• Unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% (ests 4.2%), while participation slipped to 61.4% from 61.5%

• Losses concentrated in government (-53,000), leisure and hospitality (-40,000) and retail trade (-19,000), partly offset by gains in health care and social assistance (+23,000), construction (+22,000) and professional and business services (+18,000)

• September rate-cut odds fell to 42% from 55% immediately before the release, per CME FedWatch

BofA says market barely rewarding earnings beats as tech drags

[9:03 am] Post-earnings share price reactions show beats are getting little credit while misses are punished harder than usual.

• Companies that beat EPS outperformed by just 10 bps the next day on average, down from over 50 bps the prior week

• Those beating both EPS and sales gained 90 bps, still well below the 1.4ppt historical average

• Even with positive reactions to Microsoft and Amazon, the average TMT stock that beat both metrics lagged after reporting

• Misses have been punished more than usual at -3.2ppt versus a -2.5ppt historical average

• Below-consensus EPS guides, relatively rare this quarter, faced an even steeper penalty of -4ppt the next day

Source: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine stays shut, lithium stocks surge

[8:58 am] State media has poured cold water on speculation the giant Chinese mine is about to roar back to full production.

• Jianxiawo remains closed pending environmental approval and is also undergoing maintenance, with no ore transport or crushing taking place

• CATL has been told to complete its environmental impact assessment as soon as possible, with the mine's designation changed to lithium ore from lithium-containing ceramic clay, requiring a fresh assessment that went to public consultation on July 27

• Operations were suspended in August 2025 after the mining licence expired, with CATL clearing a key hurdle by obtaining a safety production permit on June 29

Lithium stocks rallied on the news, with the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF up 4.9% overnight. Individual names like Lithium Americas (+6.9%) and Albemarle (+4.5%) also traded sharply higher.

Source: Reuters

Oil eyes Hormuz deal as Iran and Oman signal breakthrough, but conditions cloud reopening

[8:57 am] Progress toward managing the strait has pressured crude, though Tehran insists the waterway stays shut until Washington meets a long list of demands.

• Iran says it is "very close" to a deal with Oman on a temporary maritime transit route, with Oman describing talks as positive and constructive

• Reopening is conditional on the US lifting the naval blockade, withdrawing forces, permanently ending the war, paying compensation and releasing frozen assets, meaning any respite for energy supplies may be limited

• Ongoing attacks on shipping threaten to derail talks, with the UAE blaming Iran for a missile strike on an ADNOC tanker, and any final deal still needing sign-off from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

• Separately, Trump is reportedly prepared to declare victory and drop the nuclear issue if the strait fully reopens, with the top US general said to be seeking an off-ramp from the conflict

Trump touts $3bn in critical minerals investments to counter China

[8:56 am] The White House package spans loans, equity stakes and mine projects aimed at breaking US reliance on Chinese supply chains ahead of Xi's September visit.

• $3bn of new investments unveiled at a State Department meeting with industry executives, headlined by a $1.4bn Defense Department loan agreement with battery-materials firm Sila Nanotechnologies

• Further commitments include $400m from the Pentagon to expand scandium production in Australia (Sunrise Energy Metals' Syerston project) and $150m with Minnesota rare-earths firm Niron Magnetics

• Export-Import Bank working on more than $1bn to finance Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona, plus $25m for a graphite mine in Alabama and over $180m for mining education programs

• Builds on more than $10bn the federal government has already pledged to jump-start US rare earths and permanent magnets, starting with the $400m preferred equity stake in MP Materials, the sole domestic producer

• Executives from Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels, US Antimony and The Metals Company were expected to attend

Source: Mining.com

Trump sets 15% tariff and price floors on polysilicon imports

[8:55 am] The move targets solar and semiconductor supply chains and lifted US-based manufacturers in after-hours trade.

• 15% tariff on imported polysilicon derivatives (silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells and solar modules) from December 4, alongside minimum import prices of $21/kg for polysilicon, $100/kg for ingots and wafers, 22 cents a watt for solar cells and 38 cents a watt for solar modules

• Aimed at reviving a US solar supply chain and reducing reliance on China, which came to dominate polysilicon production over the last decade

• Threatens to raise solar module costs for renewable developers already facing the loss of federal subsidies and an administration tilt towards fossil fuels

• Delayed December start drew criticism that developers could stockpile cheap duty-free imports first, though the order says it will act against stockpiling

Source: Bloomberg

Abel starts deploying Berkshire's cash pile as Q2 operating earnings rise 16%

[8:47 am] The bigger takeaway from the result is Greg Abel stepping up buybacks and stock purchases after inheriting a record cash fortress from Buffett.

• Operating earnings up 16% to $12.98bn, with manufacturing, service and retailing up 24% to $4.47bn, Berkshire Hathaway Energy up 27% to $891m and BNSF up 6% to $1.56bn

• Repurchased around $4.5bn of stock, a sharp step-up from just $235m in Q1, though below some expectations heading into the result

• Turned net buyer of equities for the first time in 15 quarters with nearly $20bn of net purchases, after 14 straight quarters of selling

• Cash pile fell to $365.5bn from a record $397.4bn three months earlier, reflecting buybacks, the Taylor Morrison acquisition and other investments

• Alphabet now sits among the five largest equity holdings alongside American Express, Apple, Bank of America and Coca-Cola, following a $10bn investment disclosed earlier this year

BofA sell signal flashes for first time since 2021

[8:46 am] Michael Hartnett's team is telling clients to cut risk and rotate into defensives as its headline sentiment gauge tips into sell territory.

• Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.7 from 9.4, its highest since 2021 and into "sell" territory, driven by strong high-yield inflows, tighter high-yield and AT1 spreads and improving global breadth

• Hartnett in "retreat/rotate not reload" mode, favouring defensives (staples, REITs, small caps, biotech) and the US dollar over banks, industrials and semis

• Frames the shift as a hedge against the bullish consensus of "no macro landing, no Fed hike, no AI capex cut, no DEM midterm sweep"

• 12-month forward EPS estimates up 33%, helped by a $35bn tariff refund over three months that reversed a $75bn tariff-driven earnings hit

Japan confirms three rounds of yen intervention in spring

[8:45 am] Newly released Finance Ministry data show Tokyo went beyond its usual twin-punch playbook to prop up the yen, fuelling speculation it has done the same in its latest salvo.

• Japan intervened on three days over the spring Golden Week break (April 30, May 4 and May 6), buying ¥6.28 trillion ($39.6bn), ¥780 billion and ¥4.68 trillion respectively

• Total spend of ¥11.73 trillion made it the largest-ever monthly intervention to support the yen, likely part-financed by selling foreign securities including US Treasuries

• No extra smoothing operations occurred outside those three sessions despite at least five sharp intraday yen gains, signalling a willingness to use smaller amounts to keep speculators on edge

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 33 pts (+0.35%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks closed out its strongest week since April, with the S&P 500 closing at record highs as an unexpected US jobs miss eased Fed rate hike expectations

• July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against ests for an 80,000 gain, marking the softest print since Feb-26 and a fourth straight month of deceleration

• Over the weekend, Trump introduced a new 15% polysilicon tariff and a $3bn US critical minerals, package, Berkshire Hathaway swing into a net equity buyer for the first time in 14 quarters, and Trump is reportedly considering ending the Iran war without a nuclear deal