ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 29th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 29. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 1:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Westpac tips November rate cut from RBA

[14:02 pm] Westpac's economics team says the market expects a rate cut from the RBA in November after this week's hotter than expected monthly inflation data for June.

"The headline CPI indicator bounced 0.9% in July, driving annual inflation from 2.1%yr to 2.8%yr, near the top of the RBA’s target range. That the trimmed mean measure also shot up to 2.7%yr points to a broad-based pick-up in underlying momentum and consequently upside risk to our Q3 CPI forecast," Westpac told investors on Friday. "One month’s data does not make a trend, especially as electricity prices drove the result. Underlying July’s 13% surge in electricity prices was a combination of state rebate roll-offs, the varied timing of the Commonwealth rebate extension and standard annual price increases. While each dynamic is well understood, their timing is uncertain, hence the relatively subdued reactions to the July report from market participants who continue to expect a 25bp rate cut in November."

By Tom Richardson.

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AMP says fair value for Aussie dollar is US73 cents

[13:49 pm] AMP says the Aussie dollar is still undervalued, although it's likely to face crosswinds over the short term.

"The $A is likely to be buffeted in the near term between the negative global impact of US tariffs and the potential positive of a further fall in the overvalued US dollar," said Diana Mousina its deputy chief economist in a weekly update for investors. "Undervaluation should support it on a medium-term view with fair value around $US0.73."

By Tom Richardson.

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Morgans cuts Domino's target to $18

[13:27 pm] Brokers have updated their price targets on Domino's Pizza after the company lost 22% to $15.15 on its earnings report this week.

Morgans cuts its valuation from $22.20 to $18 and kept a buy rating.

While JP Morgan also lowered its price target to $18 from $20 and kept a neutral rating.

"Balance sheet concerns and leadership gaps added to the uncertainty. Leverage increased again, dividend payouts were cut, and the absence of a Group CEO raised questions over execution during a complex turnaround," was the summary of a separate market data provider.

By Tom Richardson.

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RBC keeps 20 cent price target on Cettire

[13:08 pm] Broker RBC has taken a look at beaten down online retailer and for now is sticking to a 20 cent price target.

The stock is up 3.3% to 31 cents on Friday afternoon as it handed in its earnings to the market.

"CTT's FY25 results were largely in line with our expectations at the top line, EBITDA losses in June were smaller than expected and July EBITDA was positive," said RBC.

By Tom Richardson.

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BYD, Alibaba earnings later on Friday

[12:52 pm] Share market fans should keep an eye out for earnings from Chinese EV giant BYD and tech giant Alibaba later today.

BYD is hotly anticipated as investors want to see how much margin it's sacrificing via its price war to grow sales at blockbuster rates.

BYD shares listed in China are up 48% over the past year.

By Tom Richardson.

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Gold climbs overnight

[12:45 pm] Gold extended a bull run by adding around 0.5% overnight to top $US3,400 again at $US3,413 an ounce at the time of writing.

It last hit a record high of $US3,500 an ounce during the peak of panic around President Trump's trade war on April 22.

By Tom Richardson.

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Dicker Data sees 16.6% of company change hands in block trade at $8.35 per share

[12:37 pm] Dicker Data shares swung wildly today after a block trade crossed at $8.35 per share, representing 16.6% of company.

The trade saw DDR shares plunge 8% to as low as $8.49 in early trade before recovering to $8.93 at lunchtime. Yesterday the IT hardware and software distributor beat the market's expectations as shares jumped.

By Tom Richardson.

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Uranium stocks surge

[11:22 am] Uranium stocks are trading broadly higher after Canada's Cameco, one of the world's largest uranium miners, cut its production forecast. Development and slower ground freezing expected to reduce 2025 production to 14–15Mlbs U3O8 (down from 18Mlbs), with 9.8–10.5Mlbs attributable to Cameco.

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Small caps making moves

[10:32 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers. A few uranium stocks catching a bid after a strong overnight move for the Global X Uranium ETF.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:19 am] Austal, NextDC and Harvey Norman all soaring on some solid FY25 results.

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NextDC soars on billing ramp

[10:12 am] Citi has run the ruler on NextDC's FY25 results, noting a relatively in-line FY25 and FY26 guidance, though billing ramp suggests an upgrade of at least 10% to FY27 estimates.

• Billing ramp faster than expected: FY26e billing utilisation ~168 MWs vs. consensus 127 MWs, FY27e ~226 MWs vs. 180 MWs. This implies at least 10% upgrade to FY27e consensus EBITDA.

• Capital efficiency focus: New JV structures (S4/S7, Tokyo1) and debt funding for contracted assets likely removes near-term equity raise concerns.

• Capacity upgrades: S5 +20 MW, M3 +50 MW, M4 +70 MW and early works for S5 starting FY25 signal confidence in achieving DA by Dec’24.

• Strong operating cash flow: Up 73% YoY to $223m, +32% above estimates due to higher receipts from customers and lower supplier payments.

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Analysts take on Wesfarmers

[9:53 am] Wesfarmers delivered a broad FY25 beat on Thursday, with strong momentum from Kmart, stable performance from Bunnings and a special dividend. Though analysts saw little upside due to current valuations and the lack of near-term growth catalysts. Wesfarmers ticked 0.4% higher on the result.

• Jarden: Underweight maintained, target raised to $73.40 from $73.10. Earnings quality strong but near-term upside unclear, retail growth investment-dependent, and health strategy still formative with stretched valuation.

• Macquarie: Neutral maintained, target raised to $86.00 from $82. Business quality intact, defensible value retail positioning, sustainable market share gains, and retail mix supports long-term growth.

• E&P: Negative maintained, target raised to $73.59 from $65.48. Retail momentum recognised but fully priced, lithium investment remains a drag, and forecasts slightly tweaked post result.

• UBS: Neutral maintained, target raised to $92.00 from $84. Bunnings resilient with commercial upside, Kmart gaining traction, and strong balance sheet supports capital management.

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Analysts take on Qantas

[9:52 am] Qantas shares surged 9.1% on Thursday after the company reported a broadly in-line FY25 result and a special dividend, reflecting balance sheet strength and confidence in travel trends. Travel demand into FY26 was another key positive, with RASK guidance seen as evidence of sustained pricing power.

• Jarden: Overweight upgraded from neutral, target raised to $12.90 from $10.20. Domestic Jetstar improvement and load factors support pricing strength and continued capital returns.

• Macquarie: Neutral maintained, target raised to $12.00 from $10.40. Positive domestic and Jetstar capacity surprises, load and yield resilience, and strong capital structure underpin outlook.

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight maintained, target raised to $13.50 from $12. Unit cost pressures manageable, fleet renewal supports margins and yield, and balance sheet strength reinforces dividend sustainability.

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Bapcor FY25 earnings

[9:48 am] A broad miss from Bapcor, even though the company provided a trading update on 24 July, which drove a sharp 28% one-day selloff.

"FY25 was the start of the strategic re-set for the Company, focused on simplifying our operations and reducing our cost base. We exited or relocated 70 sites including consolidating 23 smaller warehouses, opened 21 new branches/stores and three new state-based distribution centres," said CEO Angus McKay.

• Revenue down 1.5% to $1.94bn vs $1.95bn est (0.5% miss)

• Pro-forma EBITDA down 4.1% to $246.7m vs $252.1m est (2.1% miss)

• Pro-forma NPAT down 8.4% to $80.4m vs $81.4m est (1.2% miss)

• Total dividend of 13.5 cps vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 14.3 cps (5.5% miss)

• Outlook: FY26 NPAT expected to be skewed to 2H as benefits from strategic initiatives begin to deliver

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bapcor (BAP)

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Pexa FY25 earnings

[9:35 am] A rather messy earnings from Pexa, with a larger-than-expected statutory loss due to one-offs, solid de-leveraging of balance sheet and mixed FY26 guidance.

• Revenue up 16% to $393.6m vs $400.1m est (-1.6% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 21% to $134.4m vs $121.1m est (11.0% beat)

• NPATA down 6% to $41.1m, Statutory net loss of $76.1m vs. Macquarie ests of -$55m (38% miss)

• Key highlights: Revenue growth supported by Exchange, International, and Digital Solutions; operating expenses well-controlled; EBITDA margin 34%, up 1pp YoY, statutory net loss $76.1m impacted by impairments and derecognition of deferred tax assets.

FY26 guidance included core NPAT of $5-15m vs. Macquarie ests of $23.4m, EBITDA margin before associates of 32-35% (unclear if comparable to Macquarie ests of 35%).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pexa (PXA)

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Austal FY25 earnings

[9:29 am] Some very, very strong numbers out of Austal. "We have seen important inflection points on earnings performance, the balance sheet repositioned for a major expansion in manufacturing capacity, and further growth potential in our near record order book following the recent approval of Austal as Australia’s Strategic Shipbuilder," said CEO Patrick Gregg.

• Revenue up 24% to $1.82bn vs $1.75bn est (4.0% beat)

• EBIT up 101% to $113.4m vs $98.1m est (15.6% beat)

• NPAT up 503% to $89.7m vs $64.8m est (38.4% beat)

• Order book sitting at $13.1bn, including options

• Net cash position of $453.1m

• No dividend to maintain balance sheet strength, in-line with Citi ests of nil dividend

• FY26 outlook: Revenue and earnings growth anticipated

• FY26 EBIT guidance to be provided at October AGM

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Austal (ASB)

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Lynas FY25 earnings call highlights

[9:22 am] Lynas announced a $750 million capital raise, in conjunction with its FY25 results on Thursday, with new shares issued at $13.25 per share or a 10.0% discount to its last traded price. A few interesting takeaways from the earnings call:

• Working with US, Australia, and Japan on rare earth support, floor pricing, and ramping production in line with market demand, avoiding oversupply to China.

• Investing in metal and magnet supply chains, heavy rare earth separation in Malaysia, US magnet projects, and increasing samarium, yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium output.

• Prefer equity financing over government debt, expand non-China customer base, and strengthen customer relationships to enhance sales and pricing.

• Harvest existing investments, add high-value resources, expand downstream capabilities outside China, and optimise capital allocation and shareholder returns.

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Steadfast FY25 earnings

[9:20 am] Very mixed set of earnings from Steadfast, with a broad FY25 miss but strong FY26 guidance.

• Underlying revenue up 8.9% $1.76bn vs. $1.85bn est (4.9% miss)

• Underlying EBITA up 11.9% to $591.4m vs. $576.2m est (2.6% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 17.2% to $295.5m vs. $346.0m est (14.6% miss)

• Final dividend up 14% to 11.7 cps vs. Macquarie ests of 12.2 cps (4.0% miss)

Though FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $315-325m (vs. $317m ests) and underlying EBITA of $650-665m (vs. $618.9m ests) beat consensus by 0.9% and 6.2% respectively, at the midpoint.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Steadfast (SDF)

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NextDC FY25 earnings

[9:15 am] “FY25 exceeded net revenue guidance and set new contracting records. Our Forward Order Book is greater than the entire billing footprint today, and with a strong liquidity position we are rapidly bringing capacity forward to turn contracted commitments into revenue and cash flow while scaling for extraordinary AI and cloud demand across Asia-Pacific," said CEO Craig Scroggie.

• Total revenue up 6% to $427.2m vs. $430.0m est (0.7% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 6% to $216.7m vs. $215.0m est (0.8% beat and within guidance $210–220m)

• NPAT $60.5m vs. $63.4m est (4.6% miss)

• Capital expenditure $1.70bn vs. FY25 guidance $1.40–1.60bn (13% miss)

• Key highlights: record new contracted sales 72.2MW, including first 10MW foundational hyperscale order at KL1 Kuala Lumpur; record forward order book 134MW (121% of billing utilisation)

• FY26 guidance: Underlying EBITDA $230–240m, net revenue $390–400m, capital expenditure $1.80–2.00bn

Overall, a relatively soft set of numbers, with above guidance capex for FY25. Market was also expecting FY26 capex of $1.72 billion, so guidance is running 10.5% above consensus.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: NextDC (NXT)

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McMillan Shakespeare FY25 earnings

[9:05 am] A relatively positive result, with an unexpected 100% payout ratio.

• Revenue up 3.0% to $541.6m vs. $545.4m est (0.7% miss)

• EBITDA down 4.6% to $168.9m vs. $163.5m est (3.3% beat)

• EBITDA margin down 250 bps to 31.2%, margins 32.3% ex-items

• Normalised UNPATA down 4.1% to $103.2m vs. $102.3m est (0.9% beat)

• Novated lease sales up 4.1% year-on-year

• Simply Stronger program completed, delivering digital and productivity gains

• Full-year dividend of 148 cps vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 89.1 cps (66% beat)

  • MMS has opted for a 100% payout ratio vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 60%

  • "Payout ratio of Normalised UNPATA, reflecting our aim to avoid negatively impacting shareholders during the Warehouse transition period."

• Outlook: Growth expected from new client wins in GRS and AMS, buoyant novated orders in Q4, continued NDIS participant growth, and benefits from strategic investments with removal of non-recurring costs

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

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Sigma's $481 million block trade

[8:55 am] Chemist Warehouse investors sold $481 million block of 155 million shares at $3.10 a day after Sigma Healthcare released its annual results.

The sale followed Chemist Warehouse founders Sam Gance, Jack Gance, and Mario Verrocchi being cleared for sell-downs, with the trio collectively owning nearly $16 billion of stock. They were allowed to sell 558 million shares, or 4.8% of the company, with the remainder of escrowed shares scheduled for release next August.

Source: AFR

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Tesla sales plummet in Europe

[8:52 am] Tesla’s European vehicle registrations have fallen more than 40% year-on-year in four of the past seven months, while the overall EV market in Europe has grown 34%.

The German factory has reduced shifts from three to two, raising concerns about job security for around 11,000 workers, with the union suggesting the Kurzarbeit program as a potential solution.

Management previously cited Model Y production line transitions for earlier sales dips, but European sales have not rebounded as promised. Globally, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries fell 13% in Q2, matching the decline in Q1.

Source: Bloomberg

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Analysts still bullish on Nvidia

[8:49 am] Nvidia shares finished 0.8% lower overnight after reporting some relatively positive quarterly numbers.

• Revenue up 56% year-on-year to $46.74bn vs. $46.23bn (1.1% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 54% to $1.05 vs. $1.01 ests (4% beat)

• Data centre revenue up 56% to $41.1bn vs. $41.25bn ests (0.3% miss)

• Q3 revenue guidance $54.0bn vs. $52.5bn ests (2.9% beat)

The average 12-month target price among Wall Street analysts rose 3.0% to $202.60, implying ~12% upside, according to Bloomberg. Despite tepid guidance, analysts remains bullish, citing long-term growth and AI chip demand.

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Stocks trading ex-dividend

[8:46 am] A avalanche of companies will trade ex-dividend over the next couple of weeks. I've counted 98 over the next week, including:

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Ansell (ANN) – $0.436, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02, Ingenia Communities (INA) – $0.044, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.04, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.06, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.125

• Mon 1 Sep: Alliance Aviation (AQZ) – $0.03, Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.09, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.065, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – $0.215, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Fortescue (FMG) – $0.60, G R Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.12, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.06, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.305, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.024, Kina Securities (KSL) – $0.038, La Trobe Private Credit Fund (LF1) – $0.012, Lion Selection Group (LSX) – $0.02, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.014, Mayfield Group (MYG) – $0.022, Pinnacle Investment Mgmt (PNI) – $0.27, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.07, Tabcorp (TAH) – $0.01

• Tue 2 Sep: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.33, Codan (CDA) – $0.16, Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – $0.215, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.063, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star (NST) – $0.30, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, Santos (STO) – $0.209, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.013, Suncorp (SUN) – $0.184–1.184 (various notes), Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05, Woolworths (WOW) – $0.45, Worley (WOR) – $0.25

• Wed 3 Sep: Downer EDI (DOW) – $0.141, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.13, Fenix Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corp (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.04, Praemium (PPS) – $0.013, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek (SEK) – $0.22, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.055, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.165, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.06

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis (ACU) – $0.002, Amcor (AMC) – $0.196, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012, BHP (BHP) – $0.92, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.492, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.128, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.16, Nido Education (NDO) – $0.015, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.075, Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.038, Schaffer Corp (SFC) – $0.45, Sky Network TV (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013, Yancoal (YAL) – $0.062

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Mgmt (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

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Last day of reporting season

[8:45 am] A handful of companies due to report this morning.

• Larger Cap Earnings: Austal (ASB), Bapcor (BAP), Pexa (PXA), Waypoint REIT( WPR)

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: 3P Learning (3PL), Bhagwan Marine (BWN), Bubs Australia (BUB), Cettire (CTT), Dusk Group (DSK), Jupiter Mines (JMS), Pointsbet (PBH), Recce Pharmaceuticals (RCE), Yojee (YOJ)

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Good morning!

[8:34 am] ASX 200 futures are down 3 pts (-0.03%) despite the S&P 500 recording a second straight all-time high overnight, up 0.32% and crossing the 9,500 level for the first time on record.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.