Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 crosses 6,500 for the first time + Austal, Bapcor, Pexa earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 3pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, with the S&P 500 logging a second straight all-time high

• Nvidia shares slightly lower on relatively positive Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance

• Last day of August reporting season, with a handful of large caps due to report

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 shrugged off early weakness to close higher, near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished near best levels, with the S&P 500 logging a second straight record high, above 6,500 for the first time

• Today’s big story: Nvidia beat Q2 earnings expectations, Q3 guidance ahead on strong demand for AI but data centre numbers a little light vs. elevated expectations

• Analysts remain bullish on Nvidia, lifting price targets despite a soft guidance, citing strong long-term growth (BBG)

• Bond market's muted response to Trump's Fed actions suggests investors expect his policies won't last (AX)

• Major bond markets signal increased volatility as Germany, Japan and US prepare to sell long-dated bonds (RT)

• Bet on underperforming long-term US bonds and declining US dollar due to Trump's influence on the Fed, says Citi (BBG)

• US small-cap stocks are rebounding, with Russell 2000 up 7.3% in August (BBG)

• Japan 2-year bond auction draws softest demand since 2009 as market weigh BOJ rate hike prospects (BBG)

STOCKS

• Nvidia's revenue guidance raises concerns about demand plateau, capex bubble, monetisation and China competition concerns, magnitude of Q2 and Q3 guidance beat underwhelmed (BBG)

• Tesla's Europe sales dipped 40% in July as competitors gain market share (YF)

• Nike to lay off less than 1% of corporate staff amid restructuring (BBG)

• Google investing an additional $9bn in Virginia by 2026 to strengthen cloud and AI infrastructure (RT)

• CrowdStrike sales guidance trails forecasts, fallout from last year's outage weighs on subscription sales (BBG)

• HP's profit guidance in-line, AI PCs expected to drive demand, anticipates it will fully mitigate tariff impact (BBG)

• Snowflake guides revenue above estimates, new gen-AI products outperform expectations (BBG)

• Berkshire raises stakes in Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui, lifting sentiment towards Japan's trading houses (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa cancelled this week's visit to the US, Lutnick earlier said would help provide details around Japan's $550bn investment pledge (RT)

• EU proposes removing tariffs on imported US industrial goods in effort to lower US duties on cars (RT)

• Mexico to increase tariffs on China in bid to appease US and shield economy from cheap imports (BBG)

• China plans to reduce steel production between 2025 and 2026 to address overcapacity and price issues (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of Korea on hold as expected, surging house prices limit scope for rate cuts (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US Q2 GDP expanded at a 3.3% annualised pace, driven by a pickup in business investment and outsized boost from trade (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Today's the last day of reporting season! We’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF (URA) up 3.2% overnight, within 3% of recent highs. Still a little rangebound but not far from making ~12 year highs. Though local uranium heavyweights like Paladin and Boss both lagging due to operational challenges.

• Gold: Gold prices gained 0.5% overnight, now up four of the last five trading sessions and within an arms reach of all-time highs. Though gold miners (GDX) was relatively muted, down 0.2%, likely taking a breather after rallying ~5% in the last five sessions.

• Day twos: IDP Education (+29%) squeezed shorters on a better-than-feared result but facing downgrades today, Eagers Automotive surged (+12.0%) on solid earnings also facing downgrades on valuation, same with Qantas (+9.0%).

BROKER MOVES

• Domino's Pizza downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $17.50 from $23.90 (GS)

• Eagers Automotive downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target raised to $22.80 from $19.60 (JPM)

• IDP Education downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $6.00 from $6.40 (MQG)

• Lynas Rare Earths downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target raised to $15.10 from $12.20 (UBS)

• Mineral Resources downgraded to Neutral from Speculative Buy; target raised to $38.00 from $34.00 (E&P)

• Perpetual downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target $22.50 unchanged (UBS)

• Qantas Airways downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target raised to $11.60 from $9.80 (JPM)

• Sandfire Resources downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $13.10 from $13.35 (UBS)

• Telix Pharmaceuticals downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $16.50 from $26.25 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Ansell (ANN) – $0.436, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Infomedia (IFM) – $0.02, Ingenia Communities (INA) – $0.044, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.04, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.06, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.125

• Mon 1 Sep: Alliance Aviation (AQZ) – $0.03, Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.09, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.065, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.03, Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – $0.215, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Fortescue (FMG) – $0.60, G R Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.12, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.06, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.305, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.024, Kina Securities (KSL) – $0.038, La Trobe Private Credit Fund (LF1) – $0.012, Lion Selection Group (LSX) – $0.02, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.014, Mayfield Group (MYG) – $0.022, Pinnacle Investment Mgmt (PNI) – $0.27, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.07, Tabcorp (TAH) – $0.01

• Tue 2 Sep: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.33, Codan (CDA) – $0.16, Domino’s Pizza (DMP) – $0.215, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.063, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star (NST) – $0.30, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, Santos (STO) – $0.209, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.013, Suncorp (SUN) – $0.184–1.184 (various notes), Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05, Woolworths (WOW) – $0.45, Worley (WOR) – $0.25

• Wed 3 Sep: Downer EDI (DOW) – $0.141, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.13, Fenix Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Hitech Group (HIT) – $0.05, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corp (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Peter Warren Automotive (PWR) – $0.04, Praemium (PPS) – $0.013, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek (SEK) – $0.22, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Shaver Shop (SSG) – $0.055, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.165, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.06

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis (ACU) – $0.002, Amcor (AMC) – $0.196, Arn Media (A1N) – $0.012, BHP (BHP) – $0.92, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.492, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.128, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.16, Nido Education (NDO) – $0.015, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.075, Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.038, Schaffer Corp (SFC) – $0.45, Sky Network TV (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013, Yancoal (YAL) – $0.062

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Mgmt (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Abacus Group (ABG), Aspen Group (APZ), Abacus Storage King (ASK), Carindale Property Trust (CDP), Charter Hall Group (CHC), Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR), DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT), Dexus (DXS), GDI Property Group (GDI), Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ), GPT Group (GPT), Region Group (RGN), Scentre Group (SCG), Stockland (SGP)

• Larger Cap Earnings: Austal (ASB), Bapcor (BAP), Pexa (PXA), Waypoint REIT( WPR)

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: 3P Learning (3PL), Bhagwan Marine (BWN), Bubs Australia (BUB), Cettire (CTT), Dusk Group (DSK), Jupiter Mines (JMS), Pointsbet (PBH), Recce Pharmaceuticals (RCE), Yojee (YOJ)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)