ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 26th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, June 26. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Judo Capital business update call highlights

[9:45 am] Here are some of the highlights from Thursday's Q&A with CEO Chris Bayliss.

• CEO Chris Bayliss framed the downgrade as isolated, telling analysts the three exposures are "borrower-specific issues for three different reasons" and that prior to them Judo was "literally going to land on the pin" on cost of risk guidance

• On exposure size, Bayliss told Barrenjoey's Jonathon Mott the exposure at default across the three is "around about somewhere between sort of 70 million and 80 million", not evenly spread, with one relatively large and well-secured loan

• Mott pushed on why three large loans hit at once, noting they looked "unusually large compared to your communications" given Judo's typical $2-5m average exposure, Bayliss confirmed single large exposure limits have risen as the book grew toward $15bn

• On the loans not surfacing in the Q3 review, Bayliss told Citi's Tom Strong they had no line of sight, adding they "deteriorated very rapidly" and one borrower went into voluntary administration without being significantly in arrears

• On security, Bayliss told CLSA's Ed Henning the three are a mix of financial planning, a window manufacturer (working capital) and one property-backed loan, all with director's guarantees, and that provisioning assumes a worst-case receivership sale

• On the soft FY27 guide, Goldman's Brendan Sproules flagged consensus above $250m, CFO Andrew Leslie attributed the gap to a deliberately conservative cost of risk assumption, saying this year had "taught us a little bit about the uncertainty and wanting to take a little bit of conservatism"

• On NIM, Leslie guided to around 3.15% for FY27, broadly flat, with the strong 3.2%-plus 2H26 exit reflecting abnormally low term deposit costs expected to revert toward 80 to 90bps over swap

Company page: Judo Capital (JDO)

Core Lithium to spin out gold and non-lithium tenements

[9:29 am] Core is divesting its non-core exploration assets into a separately listed gold explorer while retaining equity upside.

• Core will spin out its gold and non-lithium tenements into new standalone ASX-listed company Axiant Resources via a share sale agreement, subject to ASX approval

• Axiant plans an IPO to raise $8m to $10m at $0.20 per share, with a priority offer to eligible Core shareholders

• Core will retain an initial 33% stake in Axiant at minimum subscription, falling to around 29% at maximum, plus up to 20 million performance rights

• Divested assets, including the Shoobridge Gold Project in the Pine Creek region, sit outside Core's FID restart study and mine plan, leaving it focused on the Finniss Lithium Project

Company page: Core Lithium (CXO)

Lendlease completes sale of UK Build to Rent portfolio to Greystar

[9:28 am] Lendlease has finalised the divestment of its Elephant Park residential assets in London, freeing up capital in FY26.

• Completed the recycling of its UK BTR assets to Greystar, alongside partner CPP Investments, covering 904 residences at Elephant Park, London

• Transaction is in line with December 2025 book value and will settle before 30 June

• Delivers cash proceeds to Lendlease of around $260m in FY26

• Elephant Park, developed with CPP Investments across four buildings completed between 2021 and 2024, is now largely complete and fully stabilised

Company page: Lendlease (LLC)

Transurban advances expanded I-95 Express Lanes project in Virginia

[9:27 am] Transurban's US arm has signed a framework agreement to assess a materially larger bi-directional expansion of its I-95 Express Lanes.

• 95 Express Lanes LLC, in which Transurban indirectly holds 50%, entered a Development Framework Agreement with the Virginia Department of Transportation

• Proposed scope adds around 120 new lane miles, 6x more than previously considered, including a 10-mile extension south through Fredericksburg into Spotsylvania County

• Project would lift I-95 Express Lanes capacity by around 140%

• Next stage covers design, contractor selection and finalising capex ahead of a Binding Proposal to VDOT, with financial close anticipated in 2029 if approved

Company page: Transurban (TCL)

UBS more than halves Judo Capital target price

[9:18 am] UBS downgraded Judo Capital to Neutral from Buy, and cut its target price to $1.05 (from $2.25).

Judo shares tumbled 40.3% on Thursday after the SME lender issues a massive earnings downgrade for both FY26 and FY27.

• FY26 PBT guided to $163-169m, down from prior lower-end guidance of $180-190m and below ests of $180.7m (8% miss at midpoint)

• Cost of risk now expected at $116-122m, driven by specific provision increases across three exposures in different sectors

• 90DPD+ and impaired loans expected at around 3% of GLA as at 30 June

• Second half NIM lifted to over 3.2% vs. prior 3.15% guidance

• CET1 of 12.4% and second half cost-to-income on track to come in below first half of 48.5%

• FY27 PBT guided to $210-220m, well short of ests of $255.1m (16% miss at midpoint)

NRW Holdings wins ~$195m in new contracts

[9:11 am] NRW's wholly owned Golding has secured two contract awards spanning South Australia and Queensland, bolstering its FY27 order book.

• Golding signed a 3-year Equipment Hire and Services Agreement with OneSteel worth around $150m at the South Middleback Ranges Mine, starting July 2026, with no material capital required

• Golding awarded a $41m to $45m contract by Anglo American to build a ~10.8km rail diversion and associated infrastructure near Moranbah, Queensland

• The Anglo American contract is due for completion in March 2027 and will engage around 230 people

Company page: NRW Holdings (NWH)

Ioneer secures conditional US Army award for critical mineral processing facility

[9:10 am] Ioneer is one of four companies selected to establish a domestic processing plant aimed at securing US defence supply chains.

• Received a conditional award from the US Army for a long-term land lease at the Tooele Army Depot to build a critical mineral processing facility

• One of only four companies selected, partnering with the US Army to develop a secure domestic boron supply chain

• Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project hosts the largest undeveloped boron Ore Reserve outside Türkiye and the only one in North America

• Boron was added to the US critical minerals list in November 2025, valued for military uses including advanced armour, permanent magnets, semiconductors and nuclear applications

Company page: Ioneer (INR)

St George Mining major holder Hancock Prospecting lifts stake

[9:09 am] Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting has added to its position in the rare earths and niobium explorer, taking its holding 3.5 percentage points higher to 9.7%.

Company page: St George Mining (SGQ)

Qualitas lifts long-term Australian funds management EBITDA margin target

[9:09 am] Qualitas has raised its long-term margin goal on the back of operational efficiencies and emerging benefits from its proprietary AI platform.

• Upgraded long-term funds management EBITDA margin target for the Australian business to greater than 60%, from greater than 50% set at the 2023 Investor Day

• Upgrade driven by a combination of expected operational efficiency gains and potential benefits from its AI initiatives

• Rollout centres on a proprietary AI platform, with the program led by newly highlighted Chief AI Transformation Officer Dr Michael Kollo

• Investor briefing held today at 9:00am AEST with Group MD and Co-Founder Andrew Schwartz, CFO Philip Dowman and Dr Kollo

Company page: Qualitas (QAL)

Fed's Goolsbee sees "glimmer of hope" on services but warns core inflation trending wrong way

[9:02 am] The Chicago Fed president said the latest data offered some encouragement on services inflation, but underlying pressures remain too high, framing inflation as the Fed's clear problem right now.

• Goolsbee said core inflation is "still well too high and trending the wrong way," with the problem clearly on the inflation side of the mandate rather than jobs.

• He declined to say whether the Fed should hike or hold, echoing Chair Warsh's preference not to fuel speculation on the rate path.

• Warsh said no one advocated a hike at the June 16-17 meeting, but the dot plot showed nine of 18 policymakers expect rates to rise by year-end.

• Goolsbee, calling himself a "data dog," is focused on whether the inflation pickup is persistent or temporary, citing tariff-driven goods prices and war-related gas costs.

• He said oil prices have been "way up" and may fall rapidly, but flagged that sticky services inflation offers no guarantee of easing.

Source: Reuters

US core PCE in line but hits highest since 2023 as spending runs hot

[8:57 am] May inflation matched expectations while consumer spending and income beat, jobless claims fell and Q1 growth was revised sharply higher.

• May core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, in line, with the annual rate up to 3.4% (vs 3.3% expected), the highest since October 2023.

• Headline PCE rose 0.45% m/m, with the annual rate at 4.1%, the highest since April 2023.

• Personal spending climbed 0.7% m/m (vs 0.6% expected) and income rose 0.7% (vs 0.4%).

• Initial jobless claims fell to 215K (vs 225K expected), the lowest since late May; continuing claims edged up to 1,821K.

• Q1 GDP was revised up to +2.1% on the second estimate, well above the +1.6% consensus and prior reading.

• Headline May durable goods orders fell 4.5% m/m, in line, but core orders (non-defence ex-aircraft) jumped 1.6% (vs 0.6% expected).

Oil climbs 2% after cargo ship hit near Oman halts Hormuz evacuation

[8:56 am] Crude rose more than 2% on Thursday after a vessel was struck near Oman, putting the UN's Hormuz evacuation on hold and reawakening fears the Iran ceasefire may not hold.

• Brent up 2.3% to US$75.08, snapping a three-day losing streak

• Two US officials told Reuters that Iran fired on the ship as it attempted to pass through the strait.

• Both benchmarks closed Wednesday at their lowest since February 27, the day before the war began, as transit volumes hit a post-war high.

• Rystad estimates Gulf storage is 50-60% full, warning producers must throttle back output if traffic does not pick up, pushing full recovery into next year.

• US gasoline futures jumped about 5% and diesel about 4%, with analysts citing short-covering in an oversold market.

Source: Reuters

UN pauses Hormuz evacuation after cargo ship attacked, oil back at pre-war levels

[8:52 am] The IMO has suspended its evacuation of more than 11,000 stranded sailors from the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship was struck, even as crude retreats to where it sat before the Iran war began.

• The Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely was hit by "an unknown projectile" 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman's Dahit port, with no casualties, and continued through the strait.

• IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez paused the plan pending "necessary safety guarantees," noting the vessel was not transiting under the IMO framework.

• Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said vessels using unauthorised routes would not be guaranteed safe passage.

• Hundreds of ships and thousands of sailors have been stranded in the Gulf since February's US-Israel war against Iran.

• Last week's 14-point deal called for Iran's "best efforts" on safe passage, but Tehran still plans to charge "maritime service fees," which the US fiercely opposes.

Source: BBC

Big US banks pass Fed stress test, lift payouts immediately

[8:47 am] All of the largest US banks cleared the Fed's annual stress test, clearing the way for higher buybacks and dividends, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley raising payouts within hours.

• All 32 large lenders tested withstood a hypothetical severe global shock, with aggregate capital falling just 1.6 percentage points despite more than $708bn in modelled loan losses.

• The scenario assumed a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, a 30% fall in house prices and unemployment peaking at 10%.

• Unlike prior years, the 2026 results will not affect capital requirements as the Fed makes the test more bank-friendly.

• JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley boosted dividends shortly after the results landed.

• The Fed has frozen the stress capital buffer until 2027 while overhauling the exam, giving banks an early look at criteria and a chance to comment on scenarios.

• Critics including Better Markets argue the changes "hollow out" the test and turn it into an "open-book exam," part of the biggest bank-capital rollback since the post-2008 reforms.

Source: Bloomberg

AI backlash emerges as the political risk Wall Street fears could halt the tech rally

[8:45 am] Strategists increasingly worry that rising public anger over AI, from power bills to job losses, could constrain the data-centre buildout that has driven the S&P 500.

• Just eight AI-infrastructure stocks accounted for nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500's 7.5% advance this year through Wednesday, including Caterpillar.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up around 93% in 2026 and on pace for its best year since 1999, tumbled 7.9% on Tuesday after a report SK Hynix is slowing AI memory expansion.

• Virginia passed a budget taxing data-centre electricity use, while California, Georgia and others have paused new projects and New York advanced a one-year moratorium.

• Progressive politicians at the national level have floated both an AI tax and a data-centre moratorium, which one strategist called the "worst-case scenario" for markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Memory shortage forces price hikes across consumer tech as Microsoft, Apple lift prices

[8:43 am] Microsoft and Apple both raised hardware prices on Thursday, blaming a memory and component crisis driven by AI data-centre demand. Microsoft and Apple shares fell 3.4% and 6.1% respectively overnight.

• Microsoft will lift Xbox prices from August 1, with 512GB models up $100 and 1TB models up $150.

• The Series S will start at $499.99, the discless Series X at $749.99 and the disc version at $799.99, with the 2TB Series X being discontinued.

• Apple separately raised MacBook and iPad prices, citing the same AI data-centre-driven chain reaction, after CEO Tim Cook flagged increases were unavoidable.

• Microsoft said console storage and memory prices have risen more than 2.5x and it expects another doubling by autumn 2027.

• Microsoft is adding buy-now-pay-later and interest-free financing options, plus cheaper previously played consoles via retail partners.

Sources: TheVerge and Axios

Chipmakers rally as Micron results reaffirm faith in AI boom

[8:35 am] Semiconductor stocks surged on Thursday after Micron's results topped estimates and reinforced AI as a key growth driver, with Qualcomm's data-centre forecast adding to the bullish mood.

• Micron rallied 16% after guiding to Q4 revenue of about $50bn, well above the $43.2bn consensus, taking the stock up roughly 326% this year.

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.1% mid-session and has roughly doubled in 2026, on track for its best year since 1999.

• Western Digital jumped 4.9%, Sandisk climbed 21% and Seagate added 3.2%.

• Qualcomm gained 3.9% after forecasting more than $15bn a year in AI data-centre component sales by fiscal 2029.

• CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said there was "no line of sight" to when supply catches up with demand, expecting tightness to persist beyond 2027 with gradual improvement in 2028.

Source: Bloomberg

South Korea's retail 'ant' army fuels AI chip frenzy as Kospi swings

[8:33 am] A 14-million-strong retail investor base has driven the Kospi to record highs on AI chip demand, but this week's selloff has exposed the rally's fragility.

• The Kospi has surged close to 200% over the past 12 months, powered by demand for AI-related chip stocks.

• Sentiment soured on the global AI buildout this week, reigniting bubble fears and triggering a 10% drop in the benchmark.

• The $4.7trn market is heavily concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, leaving it exposed to sharp swings.

• The selloff has spotlighted leveraged single-stock ETFs, prompting the top regulator to acknowledge the risks.

• South Korea sits at the heart of the global tech supply chain, so any pullback in AI capex is likely to hit hard.

Source: Bloomberg

Micron overtakes Meta in market value as AI memory demand surges

[8:31 am] Micron briefly topped both Meta and Tesla by market capitalisation for the first time on Thursday, capping an AI-driven rally extended by an upbeat quarterly forecast.

• Shares up as much as 18.4% at $1,236, lifting Micron's market cap to $1.4tn vs. Meta's $1.39tn and roughly level with Tesla's $1.4tn.

• Q4 revenue and profit forecasts beat estimates and reversed a recent share slump.

• Micron disclosed customers have committed $22bn to lock in memory chip supplies.

• The stock topped $1tn in market value on May 26, days after Samsung Electronics joined the trillion-dollar club.

• Memory makers continue to benefit from investor appetite for beneficiaries of Big Tech's AI capex.

Source: Reuters

Good morning!

[8:29 am] ASX 200 futures are up 9pts (+0.10%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street finished mixed but all gave back early gains, Dow (+0.14%) just shy of a fresh record close, S&P 500 flat and the Nasdaq down for a fourth straight day.

• Micron soared 15.7% on a blowout result and a record US$50bn revenue guide, while Apple and Microsoft tumbled on hardware price hikes, splitting the chip and software trade.

• Hot May PCE at 4.1% edged Fed rate hike bets higher, while oil bounced after Iran hit a cargo ship on UN-backed route in Strait of Hormuz.