ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 23rd October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 23. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Zip bad debts top ests as US fraud event dents earnings

[9:18 am] Zip’s top line landed broadly in line with UBS ests, but net bad debts ran hotter than expected after an external fraud event in the US.

• Total transaction volume up 18% to $4.6bn vs $4.66bn ests (1% miss)

• US transaction volume up 34.1% in USD vs ests of 35%, with September growth of 41% once the fraud event was contained

• Total income up 17% to $376.1m vs $369.2m ests (2% beat)

• Active customers of 6.4m vs 6.67m ests (4% miss), with the fraud event temporarily slowing new US customer growth in July and August

• Net bad debts rose to 1.97% of TTV from 1.65% in 1Q26 vs 1.80% ests, with Zip forecasting lower US bad debts in 2Q27

• Cash EBTDA up 3.4%to $65.0m vs $76.9m ests (15% miss), or up 19.5% to $75.1m excluding $10.1m of US fraud costs (2% miss)

• FY27 cash EBTDA guidance of $340m reaffirmed, alongside US TTV growth above 30% in USD and an operating margin of 20% to 22%

Company page: Zip Co (ZIP)

Temple & Webster sales decline narrows as margins climb

[9:16 am] Temple & Webster’s new CEO said trading has improved since August as the online furniture retailer pulls back on discounting, with FY27 EBITDA guidance sitting above UBS ests.

• Revenue down 8% for 1 July to 19 October, vs ests of a 9% decline for 1H, after deliberate cuts to promotional depth

• Contribution margin dollars up 16% over the same period

• Run-rate revenue growth improved to -4% since the August update, from -13%

• A return to revenue growth is expected from mid-February, when it starts cycling periods with similar promotional intensity

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $33m to $40m reaffirmed, with the $36.5m midpoint 7% above ests

• A refreshed brand campaign in Brisbane lifted traffic 11% and revenue 7% vs control markets, and is now rolling out to Sydney and Melbourne

Company page: Temple & Webster (TPW)

Bhagwan Marine revenue jumps 32% as Riverside acquisition kicks in

[9:14 am] Marine services provider Bhagwan Marine told its AGM it had made a strong start to FY27, though most of the growth came from its Riverside Marine acquisition rather than the core business.

• Core group revenue up 32% to $81.3m year-on-year, and up 14% on the June quarter

• Bhagwan Marine revenue up 3% to $63.7m year-on-year, and up 14% on the June quarter

• Riverside Marine revenue up 14% on the June quarter to $17.6m, and up 6% year-on-year

• Recurring revenue rose to 64% of group revenue, from 62% on an FY26 pro forma annualised basis

• High-margin Offshore Energy & Resources (subsea) and Riverside Industrial Sands were the standout contributors

Company page: Bhagwan Marine (BWN)

Ora Banda misses on output as mill shutdown and weather lift costs

[9:09 am] Ora Banda’s September quarter fell short of UBS ests on both production and costs, with an extended mill shutdown and wet weather weighing on output.

• Gold production of 33.3koz vs 40koz ests (17% miss)

• AISC of $4,214/oz vs $3,870/oz ests (9% miss)

• FY27 guidance maintained, with MD Luke Creagh saying weather and mill downtime are “expected to be limited to the September quarter”

• Closing cash of $207m, with $83.3m in operating cash flow offset by $133.7m spent on exploration, development and growth

• Liquidity of $507m after the revolving credit facility was upsized to $300m post quarter-end

• Construction of the new 3.0Mtpa processing plant began on schedule and Waihi Underground mining started early, part of its aspiration to double output to 300koz in FY29

Company page: Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

Black Cat resets Kal East mine plans, holds FY27 guidance

[9:07 am] WA gold producer Black Cat Syndicate maintained FY27 guidance despite weaker-than-expected mine performance at Kal East, which prompted a reset of its Resources, Reserves and mine plans.

• Attributable gold production of 16.7koz, or 19.2koz including third-party ore

• Operating cash flow of $39m, down on the prior quarter due to lower-margin toll treating, bearing repairs at Lakewood and lower grades

• Committed toll treating is set to end in the December quarter, which the company expects to drive a material uplift in operating cash flow in H2 FY27

• Cash and liquid investments down 26% to $78m, mainly reinvested in Kal East mine development ($39m) and drilling ($10m)

• Kal East Resources and Reserves were downgraded on grade after operating knowledge from the newly acquired deposits, with mine plans reset at quarter-end

• FY27 guidance maintained at 80-90koz at AISC of A$3,500-3,900/oz, with Q1 AISC of A$3,735/oz sitting within the range

Company page: Black Cat Syndicate (BC8)

MinRes holds FY27 guidance as Onslow Iron costs beat

[9:06 am] Mineral Resources kept FY27 guidance unchanged across all divisions despite a softer realised iron ore price.

• Onslow Iron attributable shipments of 5.0Mt wmt at an FOB cost of $53/wmt, below FY27 guidance of $54 to $58/wmt

• Realised iron ore price down 5% quarter-on-quarter to US$83/dmt, an 85% realisation of the Platts 61% index

• Record attributable lithium sales up 8% to 170k dmt SC6, though Bald Hill costs of $1,498/dmt ran well above guidance of $1,150 to $1,250/dmt

• Mining Services production up 10% quarter-on-quarter to a record 103Mt

• Net debt fell $200m to about $4.1bn, with liquidity of $2.5bn and Fitch upgrading its credit rating to BB from BB-

• ASIC concluded its investigation into the company with no enforcement action

Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)

Treasuries post best day in over a year as AI rout sparks haven rush

[8:59 am] The tech selloff stoked growth worries that outweighed inflation fears from higher oil prices, sending investors into US government debt.

• The 10-year Treasury yield fell 15 basis points to 4.97%, back below 5% for the first time in a month, with some maturities down as much as 20bps

• Traders scaled back Fed hike bets, now fully pricing a quarter-point increase by January rather than December

• The five-year breakeven inflation rate is slightly below pre-war levels, suggesting the rise in yields since February has been driven by real rates rather than inflation

• A $26bn five-year TIPS auction was awarded at 2.367%, the highest yield for that tenor since October 2023

• French bond spreads widened to a 15-year high, with France’s 10-year yield above the US 10-year for the first time since 2013

• ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said rising yields are “not a crisis, but it is a drag on growth” for Europe

Brent jumps as US and Israel plan renewed Iran strikes

[8:58 am] Oil hit a five-month high after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia and reports the US and Israel are preparing fresh strikes on Iran after the midterms.

• Brent rose 2.8% to US$112.81, the highest since 5 May

• The US and Israel have drawn up plans for a “short but intensive” operation against Iran after the 3 November midterms, the New York Times reported, though Trump has yet to approve them

• A drone strike on Aramco’s Shaybah field killed two people but left its 1 million barrels a day of capacity unaffected, while an attack on Dammam’s airport also caused casualties

• The US ordered some diplomats and their families out of Saudi Arabia due to the Houthi threat, while Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters was evacuated

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck four tankers in the northern Persian Gulf, while Iranian officials vowed to widen attacks to data centres and undersea internet cables

• Gulf crude exports have recovered to near pre-war levels through Hormuz, though oil-product shipments remain constrained

• Kpler expects Chinese crude demand to keep recovering, with stockpiles drawn down at a record 1.6 million barrels a day in September

Tesla falls 3% despite earnings beat as spending shifts to later years

[8:58 am] Tesla’s profit topped ests, but investors looked past the beat to heavier investment in robotics and autonomy over the next two years.

• Revenue of $28.05bn vs $28.13bn ests (in line)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $3.90bn vs $3.66bn ests (7% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $0.48 vs $0.44 ests (9% beat)

• FY26 capex guidance cut to $20bn from $25bn, partly as Optimus robots need more training before release

• Spending is set to rise in 2027 and 2028 on Optimus, Cybercab and Terafab, while elevated operating expenses weighed on the result

Moderna plunges 18% on possible melanoma vaccine data leak

[8:57 am] Moderna shares tumbled after details of its personalised melanoma vaccine appeared to leak ahead of a weekend presentation, with the results falling short of investor hopes.

• Moderna fell 17.6% to $202.63 after dropping as much as 25% intraday, while partner Merck fell 1.8%

• Unverified posts on X cited a 42% reduction in recurrence or death for the vaccine, intismeran autogene, when given with Merck’s Keytruda

• TD Cowen’s Tyler Van Buren said the results reportedly showed a 38% reduction in the risk of the cancer spreading in high-risk patients vs standard treatment

• An earlier study in a different patient group found a 49% reduction in recurrence or death, though it isn’t a direct comparison

• Shares had more than doubled on the initial August announcement, which gave no detail on the results

• Full data is due at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference in Madrid on Saturday

US IPO market stalls as AI jitters drain risk appetite

[8:56 am] The US listings pipeline has frozen outside of Anthropic’s expected November debut, as the AI selloff and higher rates sap investor appetite.

• October is on track to be the slowest month of the year by US IPO volume, after $162.6bn was raised through September

• Just US$587.7m has been raised via US IPOs since the end of September, excluding blank-cheque firms and other financial vehicles

• Anthropic’s anticipated debut could raise as much as or more than SpaceX’s listing, according to people familiar with the matter

• Data centre developers Nscale and DayOne are still pitching US listings, while smart-ring maker Oura and Bamboo Insurance have postponed debuts

• Deloitte’s Will Braeutigam expects six or fewer companies to raise US$500m or more on US exchanges by year-end, with most clients focused on Q2

Source: Bloomberg

Copper slides as LME stockpiles surge and AI selloff weighs

[8:55 am] Copper extended its retreat from last month’s record as a jump in LME inventories added to pressure from the tech selloff.

• LME copper fell 1.8% to US$14,105.50 a tonne after touching US$14,076, down from a record US$14,875 last month

• LME on-warrant inventories jumped 70,100 tonnes over two days, mostly in the US, as backwardation encouraged delivery against short positions

• Comex prices have fallen to near parity with the LME amid doubts the US will impose a tariff on refined copper

• Workers at Teck’s Highland Valley Copper, Canada’s largest copper mine, are threatening to strike as early as Saturday

Newmont free cash flow misses by 43% despite earnings beat

[8:54 am] Higher gold prices lifted Newmont’s earnings above ests, but free cash flow fell well short.

• Revenue up 15% to US$6.36bn vs US$6.31bn ests (1% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA of US$3.95bn vs US$3.78bn ests (4% beat)

• Adjusted net income of US$2.31bn vs US$2.47bn ests (6% miss), excluding a $40m gain on asset sales

• Adjusted EPS of US$2.20 vs US$2.11 ests (4% beat)

• Free cash flow of US$1.91bn vs US$3.36bn ests (43% miss)

• Attributable gold production of 1.30Moz at AISC of US$1,454/oz, with a realised gold price of $4,317/oz

• FY26 production guidance of 5.3Moz on track, though Q4 AISC is guided to US$1,900/oz from US$1,454/oz in Q3

Spotify EPS misses by 12% despite margin expansion

[8:54 am] Spotify kept growing users and margins, but bottom-line earnings fell well short of ests, shares still rallied 11% to $583.66.

• Revenue up 16% to €4.97bn vs €4.98bn ests (in line)

• Monthly active users up 11% to 788m, with premium subscribers up 9% to 306m

• Gross margin up 136bps to 33.0%

• Operating income up 15% to €672m vs €680m ests (1% miss), with social charges €13m above forecast

• Diluted EPS down 24% to €2.48 vs €2.81 ests (12% miss)

• Q4 operating income guidance of €820m vs €813m ests (1% beat), with revenue guidance of €5.2bn vs €5.23bn ests (1% miss)

Meta profit misses on $9.9bn legal charge as capex guidance rises

[8:53 am] Meta’s core ad business delivered a revenue beat, but a one-off legal charge dragged profit well below ests. The stock fell 6.9% to $648.85.

• Revenue up 26% to $64.60bn vs $63.33bn ests (2% beat), with average price per ad up 14%

• Operating income of $12.99bn vs $18.66bn ests (30% miss), including a $9.9bn charge tied to an agreement with US State Attorneys General

• EPS up 265% to $3.83 vs $5.89 ests (35% miss)

• Free cash flow was negative $2.12bn as quarterly capex hit $34.91bn

• Q4 revenue guidance of $73bn to $76bn, with the $74.5bn midpoint 1% above ests

• FY26 capex guidance narrowed to $135bn to $145bn from $130bn to $145bn, with the $140bn midpoint 6% above ests

Zuckerberg ruled out voting-dilutive raise, Meta special committee says

[8:50 am] Meta’s special committee said Mark Zuckerberg would not back a significant equity raise that diluted his voting power, as the company races to fund its AI build-out.

• Meta will issue new Class C shares via a one-time stock dividend of one Class C share for each Class A and Class B share, effective January 2027

• On equity financing: “Mr. Zuckerberg made it clear... that he would not support a significant equity financing that would have the effect of reducing his voting power in the Company”

• On funding conditions: “timing is important to secure capital before competitors saturate various funding options”

• Muse signed up 10m+ users in six weeks across the US and Canada, with about 25% engaging daily, more than double Threads’ initial engagement

• On Muse’s early adopters: “over 20% of U.S. Muse users today are $1,000-plus annual ARPU users”

• Muse monetisation will start earlier than Meta’s usual playbook, with the company expecting it to eventually generate more revenue per US user than its Family of Apps

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are down 19 pts (-0.21%). Here's what happened overnight:

• AI spending fears returned with force as Meta's cash burn and a chip equipment supply warning hammered megacaps, while defensives and the broader market held up

  • S&P 500 (-1.21%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.73%)

  • Nasdaq (-2.60%), Dow (+0.02%) and Russell 2000 (+0.11%)

• Commodities split on the Middle East, with Brent topping US$112 on deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia while gold, silver and copper extended a broad metals selloff

• Bond traders slashed Fed hike bets ahead of next week's meeting, sending the US 10-year yield back below 5% as investors sought havens