ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 21st August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, August 21. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare beats on the first half but implied second half falls short

[9:15 am] Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has upgraded FY27 guidance on strong Hospital demand, though the full year numbers imply a softer second half than Morgan Stanley had modelled.

• H1 FY27 revenue guidance of about NZ$1.24bn vs NZ$1.22bn Morgan Stanley ests (2% beat), implying roughly 14% growth on the prior corresponding half at 31 July exchange rates

• H1 FY27 NPAT guidance of about NZ$280m vs NZ$251m Morgan Stanley ests (12% beat), implying roughly 24% growth excluding the impact of US tariff refunds

• FY27 NPAT guidance lifted to NZ$525m to NZ$565m from NZ$500m to NZ$550m, with the NZ$545m midpoint in line with NZ$544m Morgan Stanley ests, though guidance now incorporates NZ$23m of US IEEPA tariff refunds worth roughly the entire NZ$20m midpoint upgrade

• FY27 revenue guidance of NZ$2.47bn to NZ$2.57bn vs NZ$2.56bn Morgan Stanley ests, with the NZ$2.52bn midpoint a 2% miss and only the bottom of the prior range lifted

• Implied second half is the sticking point, with H2 FY27 NPAT of around NZ$265m against NZ$293m Morgan Stanley ests (10% below) and revenue of about NZ$1.28bn against NZ$1.34bn (5% below), so the beat is front loaded rather than a full year upgrade

• On the drivers, CEO Lewis Gradon pointed to demand for the latest hardware devices and ongoing change in clinical practice lifting consumables, with continuous improvement work feeding gross margin, which Morgan Stanley has expanding to 65% in FY27 from 64% in FY26

The Morgan Stanley data is from a slightly dated note from 26 May, which was published right after FPH's FY26 result. NZX-listed FPH shares are currently down 1.8% to NZ$42.18.

Company page: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH)

MGX swings to smaller loss as $412m cash pile funds pivot from iron ore to gold

[9:09 am] MGX Resources has closed out a transitional year in which the Koolan Island rockfall was largely offset by a stronger than expected low-grade sales program, leaving the balance sheet intact for the Central Tanami gold build.

• Revenue down 38% to $204.0m FOB despite sales volumes up 3% to 2.68Mwmt, with the mix shift to 1.81Mwmt of low-grade material at 44.7% Fe (realised at just US$33/dmt FOB under fixed price contracts) doing the damage

• Profit before tax and impairments up 44% to $29.1m, but a net loss after tax of $30.2m (FY25: $82.2m loss) after a $58.9m non-cash impairment effectively writing off the remaining Koolan Island carrying values

• Cash and investments down 15% to $412.1m with no bank borrowings, the reduction reflecting the $50m paid for the CTPJV stake plus subsequent spend, leaving roughly two thirds of the current market capitalisation in cash

• Koolan generated positive operating cashflow of $1.0m (FY25: $26.5m) at a unit cash cost of $58/wmt FOB, enough to fully fund $26.6m of rehabilitation and ramp-down, a materially better outcome than management initially guided post-rockfall

• Koolan exit terms are modest but risk-shedding, with Crestlink paying at least $20.2m over five years plus up to $5m revenue share while assuming around $30m of rehabilitation liabilities, subject to FIRB and ACCC conditions and completion targeted late 2026 or into March 2027

• CTPJV carries 2.8Moz at 2.8g/t for a $59.1m all-in entry cost (about $36/oz), the non-operating 1.2Mtpa CIL plant needs replacement or substantial refurbishment, and an insurance claim on the rockfall remains open with quantum still uncertain

MGX has been trading around cash for as far as I can remember. The company is winding down its Koolan iron ore project, now pivoting to gold and precious metals.

Company page: MGX Resources (MGX)

Perenti to divest BTP for $100m, books $64m non-cash loss

[9:09 am] Perenti has agreed to sell its equipment rental and parts business BTP to a Cratus Group-led consortium, freeing up capital for its contract mining pipeline.

• Total consideration of $100m, comprising $80m cash on completion (subject to working capital and net debt adjustments) and a $20m deferred payment 12 months later that carries no performance hurdles or conditions

• Non-cash loss of about $64m to be recognised in the FY26 accounts, implying BTP was carried well above the sale price after what management described as years of market headwinds

• Completion expected by end October 2026, with the buyer still in advanced negotiations on a debt facility from a big four bank alongside equity and shareholder loans, so funding is not yet locked in

• On capital allocation, CFO Michael Ellis said the proceeds support the recent Bellevue Gold and Fourmile contract wins and add capacity for the active tender pipeline and inorganic opportunities

• Portfolio simplification continues, with the exit narrowing Perenti to businesses management sees as aligned with its competitive strengths and higher return hurdles

Company page: Perenti (PRN)

QuickFee delivers maiden positive NPAT after US Pay Now divestment

[9:06 am] QuickFee has posted its first positive bottom line following the sale of its US Pay Now business, with a leaner cost base driving a sharp lift in profitability despite flat revenue.

• Maiden positive NPAT of $3.7m excluding the profit on sale of the US Pay Now business, the first in the company's history

• EBTDA up 58% to $3.8m excluding profit on sale, with total operating expenses down 45% on pcp following the divestment

• Underlying revenue down 1% to $16.8m on a normalised pcp basis excluding US Pay Now, so the earnings improvement is cost and margin led rather than growth led

• Net interest margin strengthened to 15.3%, with the AUD credit facility expanded from $45m to $60m to support loan book growth into FY27

• Total FY26 dividend of 1cps via a final unfranked dividend of 0.5cps, on top of the 7.5cps ($28.5m) capital return, with a special dividend of up to 1cps flagged for late 2026 once escrowed funds are received

• FY27 EBTDA guidance of $4.5m to $5.5m implies 32% growth at the $5m midpoint, weighted to H2 as the QuickFee Finance solution is integrated into the Aiwyn payment platform from December 2026

Quickfee currently has a market cap of approximately $30 million, with a last close of 7.8 cents. The special 7.5 cps dividend was dished out in November 2025 (approx 62% yield).

Company page: QuickFee (QFE)

Gold know's whats up

[9:02 am] An interesting overnight session for gold prices, closing fractionally lower at US$4,518 but well-off session lows of US$4,450 (-1.58%). This is in response to bond yields rising back to levels seen prior to the US Treasury announcement. Perhaps gold knows that it's going to take a lot more intervention to tame long-dated yields.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Trump wields tariffs as leverage as trade goals go unmet

[8:59 am] Trump's late backdown from steep Canada tariffs highlights how the administration increasingly uses levies as a bargaining chip rather than the economic cure-all it promised.

• Trump paused threatened 50% tariffs on around $20 billion of Canadian goods hours before the deadline, striking a deal that could lower duties on Canadian steel, aluminium and cars in exchange for concessions including a revived Keystone XL pipeline

• The strategy relies on tariffs as leverage to extract concessions from trading partners, a use that undercuts their ability to raise revenue or drive reshoring at the same time

• Manufacturing gains have fallen short, with around 31,000 jobs added since January but roughly 62,000 lost on net since the start of Trump's second term

• Winners include domestic steelmakers such as Cleveland-Cliffs, which has lifted prices sharply since 50% steel duties came in, with its CEO calling the policy the most effective in a generation

• Consumers keep paying the premium, with tariffs equating to an average tax increase of around $1,000 per household in 2025 per the Tax Foundation, costs that stay baked into pricing

China held loan rates steady for a 15th straight month

[8:58 am] China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Thursday, matching all forecasts, as policymakers lean on fiscal spending rather than fresh monetary easing to support growth.

• The one-year LPR was held at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, with all 25 participants in a Reuters survey having tipped no change

• Policymakers are favouring accelerated fiscal implementation over rate cuts to shore up growth, as banks grapple with near record-low net interest margins that limit room to ease

• July data pointed to persistent weakness, with soft industrial output, retail sales and credit, and new yuan loans posting a record contraction on weak household demand

• Beijing pledged at July's Politburo to accelerate fiscal spending on already-budgeted infrastructure rather than launch major new stimulus

US jobless claims edge lower, pointing to a steady labour market

[8:58 am] Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week, holding near historic lows and signalling few layoffs across the economy.

• Initial claims fell 6,000 to 206,000 in the week ended 15 August, below the 210,000 median forecast

• Continuing claims rose to 1.80 million, a proxy for the number of people still receiving benefits

• The four-week moving average rose to 204,000, a metric that smooths out weekly volatility

• Claims remain historically subdued despite the pickup from July's 189,000 reading, the lowest since 1969

• The labour market stays steady but two-sided, with employers slow to fire yet also slow to hire, leaving it tougher for those seeking work

US ramps up economic warfare on Iran as oil climbs for a fifth day

[8:58 am] Oil extended its rally after Trump threatened an "economic D-Day" on Iran and its trading partners, with the market focus shifting from military action to a coordinated campaign to choke Tehran's economy.

• Trump's proposed measures would target Iran's access to banks, shipping registries, cash transfers, swap lines, front companies and smuggling networks, with an immediate focus on China as the biggest buyer of Iranian oil

• Bessent will detail the plan on Monday, framing it as the greatest coordinated economic isolation in history and warning allies they are "either with us or against us"

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Iranian exports under the US naval blockade, though crude from other Gulf producers continues to move through the waterway despite heightened shipping risks

• The UAE severed economic ties with Iran, previously its top trade partner, after accusing Tehran of firing missiles at its territory

• Analysts are sceptical the pressure bites, noting Iran has weathered decades of sanctions with workarounds in place, while China called for diplomacy and said sanctions will not work

Bond yields back at pre-buyback levels

[8:51 am] The US 30-year yield is back near pre-buyback levels while the 10-year is at 4.71%, fractionally above levels seen prior to the US treasury announcement.

US 30-year bond yield daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

US 10-year bond yield daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

JPMorgan warns Treasury buybacks are a band-aid for US fiscal woes

[8:49 am] JPMorgan has cautioned that the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks will only temporarily lower long-term yields and fail to address an unsustainable fiscal position.

• The buybacks will lower long-term yields temporarily but do not solve the underlying problem, according to JPMorgan

• The US is running a roughly 6% budget deficit near full employment, with national debt having surpassed $40 trillion

• JPMorgan estimates a funding gap exceeding $3.5 trillion in the coming fiscal years

• Without meaningful fiscal reform, attempts to suppress yields will undermine Treasury's "regular and predictable" issuance approach, raise the term premium and ultimately push long-term borrowing costs even higher

US bond buybacks fail to calm surging yields

[8:47 am] Longer-dated US Treasuries fell a day after the Treasury's surprise move to boost buybacks, signalling investors remain unconvinced it can offset mounting fiscal and inflation pressures.

• The 30-year yield up 6 bps to as much as 5.25% after Bessent comments and sitting near its pre-announcement level, with some yields having touched a 19-year high

• Treasury pledged to "at least" double buybacks of bonds maturing between 10 and 30 years, a move analysts flagged as tactical rather than structural, with speculation it could also scale back new long-end auction sizes

• Yields are being driven higher by the near $2 trillion budget deficit, elevated inflation and a flood of debt from tech companies funding AI investment

• Treasury Secretary Bessent said he has "a big tool kit" to support the market, though strategists warned the long-end selling needs firmer signals on auction size cuts to reverse sustainably

• The pressure is global, with UK and most European rates edging higher toward multi-year peaks as major developed markets face shared fiscal strain and sticky inflation

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are down 28 pts (-0.31%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks trended lower to close at session lows, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now down 1.9% and 2.5% for the week

  • S&P 500 (-0.87%), Nasdaq (-1.00%), Dow (-1.32%), Russell 2000 (-1.34%)

• US 30-year yield up 6 bps to 5.25%, reversing almost the entirety of yesterday’s fall after the Treasury Department doubled its buyback to surpass long-term yields 

• Brent crude (+1.7%) reached its highest level since July 22 after Trump unveiled a sweeping economic offensive against Iran, adding to the inflation worries already driving the global bond selloff