ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 19th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, June 19. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 lower as resources tank

[2:10 pm] That's all for this week! The ASX 200 is currently down 100 pts (-1.1%), now only slightly (+0.1%) higher for the week. A very heavy session for Materials (-3.2%) as the rising US dollar weighs on the commodity complex. The hawkish FOMC has emerged as the latest headwind for markets, with CME's Fedwatch tool now a 12.1% likelihood of hold by year-end, 34.9% chance of one 25 bp hike and 35.5% probability of two 25 bp hikes.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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US dollar breaks out to 13-month high

[1:54 pm] The US Dollar Index is on a three-day win streak, up 1.3% to 100.9, the highest since May 2025.

US Dollar Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Currency traders pile into dollar call options after hawkish Fed

[1:05 pm] Hedge funds and other currency traders are loading up on options betting the dollar will extend gains after the Fed's hawkish policy decision reinforced expectations for higher US rates.

• Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, with demand extending into Thursday as investors digested new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's anti-inflation comments

• Dollar options against the Euro hit their highest since 3 March, with large call contracts of €200m or more nearly double the volume of similar-sized puts

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained a combined 1% over Wednesday and Thursday as traders fully priced a quarter-point hike by October

• BofA flagged long-dollar positions via options as compelling given low implied volatility

Source: Bloomberg

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Australian beef exports to China face 55% tariff as annual quota hit

[1:04 pm] Australian beef exports to China will face an additional 55% tariff from this weekend after shipments hit Beijing's annual quota less than halfway through the year.

• The extra 55% tariff, on top of existing duties, applies from 20 June after shipments reached the 205,000-ton quota as of Thursday

• China set the quota in December as part of trade limits on major beef producers including Brazil and Argentina to protect local farmers

• Australian beef exports to China rose above 300,000 tons in 2025, a six-year high, on stronger Chinese consumption and record Australian production

• China is the world's largest beef importer, while Canberra's lobbying to lift the quota has shown little sign of success

Source: Bloomberg

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Energy stocks back at March levels

[1:03 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is back at levels when the US-Iran conflict first broke out, and down 16% from its 7 April peak.

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (Source: TradingView)

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Gold stocks broadly lower

[12:13 pm] The All Ords Gold index is down 3.0%, marking a second straight day of declines following a massive ~22% four-day win streak. Gold prices are on the backfoot again, down 0.7% overnight and a further 0.95% on Friday to US$4,179/oz.

S&P/ASX All Ords Gold index (Source: TradingView)

The average gold stock from below is up 11.5% in the past week, but still down 10.8% YTD.

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CBA appoints new CIO and CTO to sharpen digital and AI strategy

[12:08 pm] Commonwealth Bank has named Victoria Ledda as Group Chief Information Officer and Rodrigo Castillo as Group Chief Technology Officer as it ramps up its digital, data and AI focus.

• Ledda will lead business-aligned technology strategy and delivery, while Castillo oversees enterprise technology foundations including engineering, security and AI

• Both appointments are effective 1 July, subject to regulatory approvals

• CEO Matt Comyn said the moves reflect a focus on delivering better, safer and more resilient technology for customers

• The bank has positioned itself as an early AI adopter, recently hosting OpenAI's Sam Altman and hiring what it called the country's first chief AI scientist within a bank

• The push comes even as CBA has flagged rising AI costs as tasks grow more complex

Company page: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

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Miners extend pullback

[11:38 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is down almost 3% in early trade, reflecting broad weakness across copper, iron ore, gold, lithium and aluminium names.

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UBS upgrades a2 Milk to Buy on overdone derating

[10:59 am] UBS has upgraded The a2 Milk Company to Buy from Neutral, arguing its 35% derating overstates the permanent value loss from China supply shortages and a US product recall.

• Price target cut to $9.20 from $10.40, with the stock on a FY27 P/E of 21x, well below its long-term average of 32x

• UBS sees low risk of further ARA-related recalls after retrospective product testing, with the 35% derating implying a far greater permanent value loss than UBS' 12% estimate

• China restocking began in mid-June, though not in time for the 6-18 sales event, with out-of-stock levels of 30-40% and fulfilment rates of 60-70%

• FY26 EBITDA seen at $280m on 13% revenue growth, within the 10-15% guidance range

• FY27 EBITDA forecast at $335m, up 20%, but below consensus of $370m, with new-customer acquisition likely to stay challenging

Company page: The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

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Macquarie stays Neutral on Seek as job ad volumes weaken

[10:58 am] Macquarie has flagged worsening Australian job ad declines through 2026 and limited re-rating catalysts for SEEK, retaining its Neutral rating.

• Australian job ad volumes fell 4% year-on-year and 1% sequentially in May, with FY26 year-to-date down 3% year-on-year

• Macquarie sees FY26 volumes dropping ~1.5%, worse than its current forecast of down 0.5%, with Australia tracking down 3% and New Zealand up 9%

• Applications per ad hit a record 230 in April, up 5% year-on-year and 76% above the 10-year average of 130

• Declines were worst among roles with high AI automation exposure, down 8.2% month-on-month, though these are under 10% of SEEK job ads

• Macquarie cites AI-driven workforce automation risks and a rising unemployment rate, now ~4.5% and up 0.4 percentage points through 2026

Company page: SEEK (SEK)

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EOS lands US$124m Slinger counter-drone order

[10:37 am] Electro Optic Systems has secured a $124m counter-drone order from Gen5 and entered a binding agreement to establish a 50/50 directed-energy weapons joint venture in Abu Dhabi. The stock is up 12.4% in early trade

• US$124m (~A$175m) order covers Slinger counter-drone RWS, cannon, spares, training and other supplies, with delivery in 2027 and 2028, subject to export approvals

• JV with Gen5 to develop, manufacture and distribute a 200-300kW next-generation high-energy laser weapon, plus EOS' existing 100-150kW HELW and RWS

• JV is 50/50 on equity and profit, based in Abu Dhabi, with Gen5 obligated to contribute $40m of equity

• The parties will seek a minimum $250m order for a 200-300kW HELW product family within 12 months

• They will also pursue a contract for several 100kW HELW within nine months, with a minimum aggregate value of $290m

Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:15 am] Biotech, tech and defence stocks open higher, while mining heavyweights like Alcoa, Newmont, BHP and PLS Group dip in early trade.

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Top All Ords gainers and losers

[10:15 am] Here are the top S&P/All Ords movers in early trade.

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Core Lithium starts Finniss drilling at Blackbeard, acquires Bynoe tenement

[9:59 am] Core Lithium has commenced a near-mine brownfields exploration program at its Finniss operation and consolidated its tenement portfolio with an acquisition from Charger Metals.

• Up to 12,150 metres of diamond drilling at the Blackbeard prospect will test continuity and quality of lithium mineralisation to support a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate

• Blackbeard is Core's priority growth opportunity at Finniss and a potential source of future high-grade ore feed

• Acquired the Bynoe Lithium tenement (EL 30897) from Charger Metals, within the Finniss Lithium Project area

• The program advances Core's strategy of resource growth and mine life extension, following Carlton's conversion to Ore Reserve and development underway at BP33

Company page: Core Lithium (CXO)

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Cynata slumps as Phase 3 osteoarthritis trial misses both primary endpoints

[9:55 am] Cynata Therapeutics' CYP-004 failed to meet either co-primary endpoint in the University of Sydney's Phase 3 SCUlpTOR trial in knee osteoarthritis.

• Neither co-primary endpoint was met: 51.7% of the active group reached the PASS threshold for knee pain at 24 months vs 48.1% for control, with no significant difference in cartilage thickness loss

• Both groups showed a substantial, durable reduction in pain from 3 to 24 months, but with no significant difference between active and control at any timepoint

• The miss follows disappointing Phase 2 CYP-001 graft versus host disease results announced 17 June 2026

• Cynata is now reviewing options for further development of its Cymerus technology

The stock is indicated to open down 94.2%.

Company page: Cynata Therapeutics (CYP)

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Dexus Industria REIT lifts buy-back to 5% as portfolio valuations hold steady

[9:40 am] Dexus Industria REIT has doubled its on-market buy-back target to 5% and reported a modest valuation uplift across its portfolio as at 30 June 2026.

• Buy-back target lifted to 5.0% from 2.5% of securities on issue, with the initial target 52% complete as at 18 June 2026

• Increase reflects an opportunity to exploit the price dislocation between listed and direct property markets

• All 90 assets externally valued, delivering an estimated net uplift of $3.2m, or 0.2% above forecast book values

Company page: Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

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Arena REIT posts $11.5 million valuation uplift

[9:40 am] Arena REIT expects a net revaluation increase of ~$11.5 million for the six months to 30 June 2026, lifting NAV per security by $0.03.

• Net revaluation uplift of ~$11.5m, a 0.6% increase from 31 December 2025, split $7.8m ELC and $3.7m healthcare

• FY26 distribution of 19.25 cents per security, up 5.5% on FY25 and in line with guidance, including a final-quarter 4.8125 cents

• Operating portfolio weighted average passing yield rose 9 basis points to 5.48%, with the ELC portfolio up 10bp and healthcare compressing 1bp

• Portfolio expected to carry a 17.4-year WALE and 100% occupancy at 30 June 2026

• FY26 rent reviews delivered average like-for-like rent growth of 4.0%, including 36 market reviews up 7.6%

• Divested 11 ELC properties for $53.5m at an 8% premium to book, acquired three ELCs for $19.6m and completed 11 developments for $87.1m

Company page: Arena REIT (ARF)

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Dexus Convenience Retail REIT lifts buy-back to 5% as valuations rise $8.1m

[9:36 am] Dexus Convenience Retail REIT has doubled its on-market buy-back target to 5% and reported a net valuation uplift across its portfolio for the six months to 30 June 2026.

• Buy-back target lifted to 5.0% from 2.5% of securities on issue, with the initial target 55% complete as at 18 June 2026

• The increase reflects an opportunity to exploit the price dislocation between listed and direct property markets

• 33 of 91 assets externally valued, with the rest internally valued, delivering an estimated net uplift of ~$8.1m, or 1.1% above book values

• Weighted average cap rate flat on a like-for-like basis at 6.18% over the half

Company page: Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

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IDP Education issues FY26 guidance

[9:17 am] IDP Education has confirmed FY26 adjusted EBIT of approximately $122 million and announced an on-market share buy-back of up to $50m.

• FY26 adjusted EBIT guided to ~$122m vs $118.7m ests (3% beat) and within prior $120m to $130m guidance

• Announced an on-market buy-back of up to $50m, citing a robust balance sheet and strong cash generation

• Now expects a $30m net cost base reduction in FY26, ahead of the prior $25m target, with further FY27 cuts identified

• Strong yield performance and cost reduction are mitigating weaker market conditions

• Net leverage ratio expected at ~1.0x at 30 June 2026, with FY27 broadly in line if the buy-back reaches $50m

IDP shares have continued to spiral lower, down 14% in the past month and down 58% year-to-date.

Company page: IDP Education (IEL)

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PLS approves $175 million pre-FID spend to keep P2000 lithium expansion on track

[9:16 am] PLS has approved ~$175 million in pre-final investment decision capital expenditure to preserve the option to expedite its P2000 expansion at the 100%-owned Pilgangoora operation.

• Pre-FID spend will be deployed across FY27, positioning PLS for an FID in the December quarter 2026 targeting first ore in mid-2029

• P2000 would lift Pilgangoora concentrate capacity to ~2.0Mtpa, with the feasibility study due in the December quarter 2026

• Spend splits into processing plant procurement and engineering (~$100m), on-site early works and operational prep (~$60m) and Wodgina Road East infrastructure (~$15m)

• FID remains subject to positive study outcomes, funding capacity and market conditions

Company page: PLS Group (PLS)

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Westpac bankers grilled by APRA over small-business lending failings

[9:12 am] APRA has interviewed more than 20 Westpac bankers this week after an internal report flagged unsatisfactory processes and oversight in the lender's small-business division, the AFR reports.

• An internal report from late April found Westpac had not properly addressed 2021 audit findings of unsatisfactory oversight, controls and processes in the SME unit

• Issues flagged include high rates of staff breaching loan approval limits, weak supervision, poor fraud monitoring and high banker churn

• The probe forms part of a broader APRA review of big bank SME lending, with NAB and CBA also engaging with the regulator

Source: AFR

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BHP lifts Jansen Stage 2 cost to $6.9 billion

[9:07 am] BHP has raised its total investment in the Jansen Stage 2 potash project to US$6.9 billion including contingencies, up 41% from the original $4.9bn sanctioned in October 2023, and will book an impairment on the project.

• Total Stage 2 investment lifted 41% to US$6.9bn from US$4.9bn

• Expects a ~US$2.3bn impairment charge (before and after tax) on investment in Jansen to date

• Updated IRR cut to 11% from the original 15-18%, with payback extended to 8 years from prior ~6 years

• First production now estimated late FY31, with Stage 2 16% complete and engineering 83% complete at end-May 2026

• Stage 2 still expected to deliver ~4.36Mtpa, with combined Jansen output of 8.5Mtpa after a two-year ramp-up

• Underlying EBITDA margins for Stage 2 remain above 65%

• Guides FY27 group capex to remain at ~$11bn

• NYSE-listed BHP shares traded 2.7% lower.

The Jansen Potash project has been an absolute nightmare. On 20 January, BHP raised its total investment for Stage 1 to US$8.4 billion vs. prior $7.0-7.4 billion and an initial $5.7 billion estimate at the August 2021 approval. The stock fell 2.0% on the day.

Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

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Goldman says Hormuz oil flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war level

[8:58 am] Goldman Sachs expects oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to rebound to about 70% of their pre-war level as Gulf producers lean on routes that bypass the chokepoint.

• Reaching pre-war volumes would require a 13 million barrel a day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels, with the pickup likely done by end of next month and Gulf production recovering by October

• Some 7.5 million barrels a day are routing via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Fujairah and Ceyhan as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq use pipelines that avoid Hormuz

• The UAE is pushing to cut its Hormuz dependency to zero, expanding ports on the Gulf of Oman coast, while Kuwait seeks pipeline alternatives via Saudi and UAE systems

• Ship availability is unlikely to constrain the recovery, with about 860 million barrels of empty tanker capacity within five days' sailing, though some owners remain wary of the route

Source: Bloomberg

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Intel rallies to record after Trump touts Apple chip deal

[8:57 am] Intel shares jumped 10% to fresh all-time highs after President Trump said the chipmaker will work with Apple to design and produce semiconductors in the US.

• Trump said on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build chips in America, without elaborating on the tie-up

• Landing Apple would be a major win for CEO Lip-Bu Tan's effort to win external customers for Intel's foundry business after past false starts

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Apple to raise prices as memory chip shortage bites

[8:56 am] Apple plans to lift product prices to offset soaring memory and storage chip costs, with CEO Tim Cook telling the WSJ the situation has become unsustainable.

• AI-driven data centre demand has sparked fierce competition for scarce memory components, driving prices sharply higher, with supply increasingly diverted to high-bandwidth memory for AI servers

• Cook said price increases are unavoidable but did not specify timing, magnitude or which products will be affected

• DRAM is a particular concern, with less supply available just as consumer device demand holds up

• The warning lands ahead of Apple's first foldable iPhone, due in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max

• Cook hands over to John Ternus in September

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Accenture tumbles record 18% as AI fears and weak guidance hit consulting

[8:53 am] Accenture shares fell a record 18% overnight after weak bookings and soft revenue guidance reinforced fears that AI is disrupting demand across the consulting industry.

• Q3 revenue up 6% to $18.7bn vs $18.76bn ests (in line)

• Q3 diluted EPS up 9% to $3.80

• New bookings fell 2% to $19.3bn in the quarter, reinforcing concerns AI is eroding consulting and managed services demand

• Q4 revenue guided to $17.75bn to $18.4bn, midpoint $18.08bn vs $18.47bn ests (2% miss)

• FY26 revenue growth guided to 3-4% vs. prior expectations of 3-5%

• Middle East war cut quarterly revenue by ~$100m and sales by ~$400m, with CEO Julie Sweet expecting further impact despite the US-Iran deal

The earnings miss drove a broad selloff among IT services companies, with names like Cognizant, Wipro, Capgemini and Infosys all down 2-10%.

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JPMorgan warns chip rally risks market 'tantrums' as volatility builds

[8:52 am] JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou caution that sharp swings in semiconductor stocks could force volatility-driven selling even from investors who still back the trade.

• A rebound in chip stocks to record highs this week has come with higher volatility, raising the risk of shocks that force portfolios to cut positions to stay within risk limits

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slumped more than 10% earlier this month on AI overheating fears before reclaiming an all-time peak

• A BofA survey this week showed long chipmakers is the most crowded trade among fund managers

• Stretched valuations add to the risk, with semis' share of global indices at six times their share of revenues, more than double the ratio for the Magnificent Seven in the S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

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Trump and Iran sign initial deal to end war, reopen Strait of Hormuz and ease sanctions

[8:51 am] Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, starting a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal on Tehran's nuclear program.

• MOU declares an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, with a final deal targeted within 60 days, extendable by mutual consent

• US will terminate all sanctions on an agreed schedule, unfreeze Iranian funds and assets and begin removing its naval blockade, fully ending it within 30 days

• Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran allowing free passage of commercial vessels for 60 days before talks with Oman on future administration

• Iran reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons and agreed to down-blend its enriched stockpile on site under IAEA supervision, an irreversible process, rather than ship it abroad

• A contentious clause commits the US to work with regional partners on a plan for at least $300bn for Iran's reconstruction, though officials stress US taxpayers will not fund it

• Trump warned he could resume strikes if Tehran fails to honour its commitments, while Israel, not a signatory, remains skeptical and has continued strikes in Lebanon

Source: CNBC

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Warsh debut sparks rate-hike bets as Fed signals zero tolerance on inflation

[8:50 am] Traders moved to price a rate hike as soon as next month after new Fed chair Kevin Warsh used his debut press conference to signal the central bank will not tolerate high inflation.

• Two-year Treasury yields steadied overnight near 4.17% after jumping 13 bps on Wednesday, the biggest move since April 2025 and the largest on a Fed meeting day since 2008

• The SEP showed half of Fed members expect to raise rates by year-end, with futures now pricing a quarter-point hike by October ahead of the mid-terms

• Warsh declined to give forward guidance or a personal rate view, slashed the length of the Fed statement and framed internal debate as "a good family fight"

• Inflation has stayed above target on resilient job growth, a record stock rally supporting spending and an AI-driven investment boom, not just the Iran oil shock

• Warsh was seen balancing Fed credibility against political pressure from Trump, who elevated him after repeatedly attacking predecessor Jerome Powell

Source: Bloomberg

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Oil selloff and AI demand cheer bulls, hawkish Fed and trade noise nags bears

[8:45 am] Here are some key bullish and bearish focus points for markets.

Bullish talking points:

• Oil sold off hard on traction in the US-Iran MOU, signed earlier than expected on Wednesday, with WTI and Brent both down ~30% over the past month as Gulf players move to ramp production and tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz

• AI demand narrative kept broad support, with Morgan Stanley lifting HDD price targets on potential pricing upside, upbeat Micron earnings previews, and Jabil flagging "extremely strong" AI infrastructure demand

• US May retail sales reinforced consumer resilience, with headline sales up 0.9% month-on-month vs consensus of 0.5% and gains across 11 of 13 categories, while core sales rose 0.7% vs 0.4% expected

• Memory stocks in South Korea and the US rallied despite Apple's Tim Cook warning of price rises on surging memory and storage costs, with Cook open to funding capacity expansion off the balance sheet

• Positioning and sentiment turned supportive, with Deutsche Bank noting overall positioning fell to modestly underweight (34th percentile) from moderately overweight and the AAII bull-bear spread at its lowest since early April

Bearish talking points:

• Hawkish Fed takeaways as the SEP showed 9 of 18 members now expecting at least one 2026 rate hike, with Warsh stressing price stability and leaning on new task forces rather than the policy outlook

• AI containment and China/open-source competition fears rose after Commerce ordered Anthropic to suspend foreign-national access to its most advanced models, Claude Fable 5 and Mythos, on jailbreaking risks

• The broadening-out and cyclical trade lost momentum despite the oil selloff, with transports, consumer discretionary and regional banks lagging, though machinery, multis and builders outperformed

• Trade headlines stayed negative, with Trump saying the US would do better without the USMCA and signalling a preference for no new deal, feeding uncertainty concerns

• JPMorgan flagged elevated semi volatility and high exposures as a potential VaR-shock trigger that could force de-risking, alongside the challenge from stretched valuations

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Wall Street recap: Stocks rally on AI demand, oil slides on US-Iran deal

[8:37 am] US equities closed higher Thursday near session highs, shaking off Wednesday's hawkish FOMC takeaways as the AI demand narrative returned to the fore.

• Dow +0.14%, S&P 500 +1.08%, Nasdaq +1.91%, Russell 2000 +2.12%

• Breadth was weak, with six sectors trading lower, Dow marginally higher and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.46%) underperforming

• Semis and memory led the rally again, with the SOX on track for another sharp weekly gain, while big tech rose broadly on AI demand optimism

• Brent snapped a five-day losing streak, up 0.7% to US$79.25 as the US and Iran signed an MOU and the US blockade was lifted, pushing average pump prices back below US$4 a gallon

• Market focus starting to shift to Q2 earnings season, S&P 500 expected to deliver earnings growth of nearly 22% in Q2, with reporting season kicking off in mid-July

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Good morning!

[8:26 am] ASX 200 futures are down 51 pts (-0.57%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street rebounded from the Fed sell-off on Thursday, tech stocks led by a wide margin while defensives and value-oriented pockets of the market underperformed 

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 6% to a record high, with Intel surging on a Trump-announced Apple chip deal

• Oil hit a three-month low as the US-Iran deal cleared the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

• Note: US market is closed tonight in observance of the Juneteenth National Independence Day